European Politics Thread

There was a bomb planted in a bus in my home city (which is in Poland) in 2016. The motivation was greed and thankfully the bomb was a dud, but every time I hear "not all muslims are terrorists but all terrorists are muslim" I want to remind them of that incident.

Our current government seems to operate on a delusion that insulting everyone around means we're strong and independent. Which shelves "Three Seas Initiative" rather effectively.

Cause seriously, when your diplomatic efforts consist of offending Slovakia, Germany, France, USA, and a couple of other countries, what can be expected? Polish right-wing diplomats are world-class indeed.

Du you think that there is a chance that the government will change after the next election?

There is such chance (Pi S lost power once already in 2007) but the opposition needs to be showing more than "we're not Pi S" - at least show their programs effectively.

People here treat all immigrants from muslim countries as potential terrorists - a narrative which gives Pi S a handy way to scare voters ("choose Pi S or muslim terrorists will come!") and there's a program "500+" which gives most mothers about 120 euros per month (Pi S scares voters that opposition will take it away from them).

This, plus the fact that the opposition is fragmented, means that it will be an uphill battle.

So long as the EU only gives Poland et al slaps on the wrist, they will only grow more bold. And even if the EU were to crack down hard, they all have various options. Not pretty or easy ones, but they have an aversion to being told what to do, even if its for their own good.

Do not dismiss the idea of them seriously considering attempts at Intermarium simply out of conviction of your own superiority.

I mean, Poland and Hungary might try and pull that, but would the Baltic states really have anything to gain from pissing off the West? And the rest of the region isn't nearly as bad as a problem.

edited 27th Aug '17 7:25:45 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

The EU has to be careful with that...they have to react to specific actions which go clearly against the EU rules, otherwise they look like an unreasonable bully.

Also, I was judging the region in general. Poland might be drunk of its own superiority, and I have pretty much given up on Hungary, but the smaller states, which are directly threatened by Russia, they see is differently. They won't trust that Poland alone can protect them - especially not since Poland obviously doesn't care about anyone else.

edited 27th Aug '17 10:31:39 PM by Swanpride

The Baltics are not going to withdraw from the EU. They know exactly what Putin will do the moment they aren't under a military umbrella. Hell, it's not inconceivable that even with a US and EU commitment to their defense, Putin will invade and annex anyway - the US is not in a position to fight a conventional war with Russia right now, and I can see Putin figuring that the nuclear deterrent won't be pulled out to defend the self-determination of a "traditional Russian territory."

Salami Tactics means there can be no ambiguity whatsoever as to when the nuclear option will be used.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

Honestly, the bigger issue for Russia is not the nuclear threat, it is the fact that they are economically dependent on the EU. Even with the sanctions there is still a lot of trade going on. If they attack the Balkans, they will cut off their most important trade routes which will lead to starvation in their own population within weeks.

There are several levels here - the first, and simplest is that Russia cant mount an offensive which can *hold* the Baltic. They are indefensible, but all that means is that now the Russian army is on EU territory, and will get blown to bits by the gazillion tanks and aircraft being moved in through Poland. The EU may not have much of a logistics tail, but it does not *need* one to fight a war it can drive to on railway tracks and high-ways. And Europe does have a heck of a lot of tanks, planes and soldiers. Would this be a cluster... to organize? Probably, but it would happen, and Putin cant strip all of Russia bare of forces to fight an offensive war the way Europe could strip the continent to fight a defensive one - too many trouble-spots that would instantly boil over.

Consider exactly would happen to Putin - personally - if he engaged in adventurism and got his ass kicked? Because I am guessing the best case scenario is some angry babuska shooting him because he got her grandson killed, and it gets so much worse from there.

Then there is the economic level - a whole lot of Russian assets are parked in europe. Open conflict gets those seized. -> very angry oligarchs.

The EU, united, has a massive infrastructure. The EU has nigh half-again the US Population.

The only reason people don't see the EU as Awakening the Sleeping Giant is because we've spent a thousand years at war with each other, so no one conceptualizes the idea of truly joint European war effort.

edited 29th Aug '17 5:21:01 AM by 3of4

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One has consider something else: While a focussed and coordinated effort is preferable, it isn't necessarily necessary, especially not if one attacker outnumbers the others. If the EU moves united against one enemy in defence of an EU member, it won't matter how coordinated they are, the sheer number will make the difference. Not to mention that the EU states all have allies outside of the EU, too. And I am not just talking about the US. Attacking the EU equals poking into a hornets nest.

I think a lot of people are aware of the EU as potentially emerging Superpower. This is why so many countries, especially the UK, don't really like the notion of an EU army.

The UK believes it is still a Superpower...The idea that its not is why the idea of a more...confident EU is bad to them.

edited 29th Aug '17 5:40:21 AM by 3of4

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Well, it still counted as one just last year...I think they haven't quite caught up yet to how much power Trump has just squandered away.

UK not US

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Replace Trump with the current British Buffoons.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.

Sorry, had my mind elsewhere...yeah, the UK hasn't been a superpower for a long, long time. And somehow still thinks that the world will bow over backwards for them. See the Brexit talks.

The EU would be a superpower if it was federalised. As it is, national sovereignty is still elder to EU directives most of the time.

Of course, it does also contain the fourth, fifth and seventh largest economies on the planet.

Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.

I know 3of4 was referring to the UK before this response, but we have—those not hypnotized anyway. Even the people advising him partly define their jobs as slowing down the damage he does.

As for the EU, another stateside perspective, a good part of the ^note (university-educated in Atlanta) part of my generation seem to favor the EU taking the lead on international crises. They consider you as better (re)builders.

Look with century eyes... With our backs to the arch And the wreck of our kind We will stare straight ahead For the rest of our lives

I'm not so optimistic about a hypothetical EU-led world. But then, I'm an inherently cynical sort of person.

Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.

I actually think that it is a good thing that the EU isn't federalized (yet). Perhaps one day in the far future, but currently I actually think that it works better as a symbol of cooperation. Plus, it already has to deal with a lot of backlash as it is.

I don't know, I think a lot of Americans don't really realize the damage he has done, even those who aren't necessarily Trump followers. For example a lot of people buy into the whole "the US spends so much on military because of NATO" narrative and don't really understand the extend to which Trump offended the other NATO nations, especially the ones who lost soldiers in Afghanistan.

edited 29th Aug '17 9:19:30 AM by Swanpride

I'd like to have the EU some teeth, if only to handle spikers like Poland and Hungary

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You capture more flies with honey.

Angela Merkel is losing patience:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/29/angela-merkel-poland-judicial-reforms-courts

Of course, one politician from Pi S "explained" it (and Macron's remarks) as a part of an election season. I wonder which election season would it be in the case of the French president.

Yeah...no. For one, I don't think that most Germans care enough what Poland actually does and two, she would be better off to not draw attention to that issue, it only gives the Af D ammunition.