The Arab Spring

Hadi's still at large, from what i can see. It's just that he's lost all control of the capital. What we watch next is for declarations from the Houthi and/or the Hirak, if any unilateral moves have been made.

I mean, the recognized government of Libya has been sitting on a cruise ship in Tobruk harbor for a year now. Not controlling the capital is problematic, but not insurmountable.

The question is how the US will respond. We'll continue to prop him up, but we have to acknowledge the facts on the ground as well and speed transition to the draft constitution. Not that the Houthi might like that, but many Yemenis will go for it.

The Houthis aren't against the idea of a new constitution...just the one Hadi proposed. The Hirak didn't like it either, if I recall.

And yeah, I imagine as long as they have Taiz and Aden, Hadi isn't out of the picture just yet. But this was a fatal event for him, have no doubt...

EDIT-

The timing of this is gonna hurt US efforts here anyway, given Obama's touting of the "Yemen solution" and the fact that today is the State of the Union address...

As for what will happen to the rest of Yemen, that article I linked about what is going on in the east will sum it up.

EDIT 2-

Hadi was reported to still be in the house at the time of the attack. If he is killed, imprisoned, or exiled, that will leave the internationally-accepted government headless (Bahah is around, but he's currently surrounded himself and the Prime Minister doesn't have much power anyway), which will change the dynamics considerably depending on who takes over.

edited 20th Jan '15 11:33:10 AM by FFShinra

Right, get a council together with Hadi's party, the Houthi, the Hirak, and representatives from the non-aligned areas and draft a new constitution that everyone can get behind, as well as creating a Cordon Sanitaire against the Salafists (which will piss them off, no doubt, but gets them united against the dangerous actors.

But you would think "Yemen President Feared Dead" would be front and center in the headlines.

Your suggestion has merit and is likely the one the UN/GCC will go with. Just one problem....Hadi was kicked out of his own party about a month or so ago, which is controlled by Saleh. He has a faction within the party supporting him, but it is a minority and so long as the Saleh faction remains the more powerful of the two, he has no leverage in the Parliament.

It also depends on Houthi intentions. If they intend to merely be the eminence grise of the state, otherwise keeping the general structure of a unified republic in tact, they'd probably not mind some kind of unitary government (with partners of their choosing rather than big tent...they have no intention of letting Islah have power of any kind).

If, on the other hand, they intend to restore the Imamate that existed prior to 1962, they won't make deals with the currently existing parties (though they may still do so with their patrons).

It also depends on whether or not the Hirak's secessionist (as opposed to its federalist and autonomist factions, the latter of whom has tied their fate to Hadi's) faction comes out on top in Aden. If they were to launch a revolt now, they could very well seize the city much the way the Houthis did Sana'a.

Isn't there also a chance of a Houthi/Hirak coalition to split the country?

There is (what I mentioned in my previous post compliments each other), though that won't happen til the Hadi faction (and whatever successor there is to that faction) is removed. And, quite frankly, until the Hirak start carrying their share of the burden. Of all the significant factions in Yemen, they're the only ones who do not, as yet, hold territory.

Other issues are there as well. Namely, the possibility of growing antagonism between the Hirak and the Houthis due to the latter's kidnapping of Bin Mubarak and because of their humiliation of Hadi (both hail from the south and were, in fact, former members of the South Yemeni government prior to unification). Now that is a long shot, but it should be kept in mind.

EDIT-

And then of course, there is the inevitable reckoning between Saleh and the Houthis. Theirs is an alliance of convenience, and one or both will start going after the other as soon as one feels secure enough in their power...

edited 20th Jan '15 9:43:31 PM by FFShinra

Aden is under lockdown. No one can get in or out by land, sea, or air, following the clashes in Sana'a.

Fearing a Houthi attack, or the Hirak deciding to take up arms and make their move?

Seems to be the former (though I'm of the opinion that the Houthis have no interest in South Yemen). I do wonder if the moves to hunker down attract violent action from either AQAP or the Hirak....

Seems there was an agreement on Wednesday that the Houthi would withdraw from the presidential palace and free their captive, Hadi chief-of-staff Ahmed bin Mubarak, on the condition that the draft constitution be changed to reflect their demands.

Seems a smart move from them. I have to wonder if the US hand is in this, though. We really don't want chaos in the country, but there's no chance we'd invest any real blood and treasure trying to prop up Hadi, so perhaps a stern warning or maybe even some diplomatic outreach on the sly, because honestly this is a surprisingly starry outcome

How so? The Houthis demands have been for months to change the constitution.

Or is it the fact that their rhetoric matches their actions? Cuz that has me astounded, given the norm of the region.

NYT article giving a good summation of events that have transpired in Yemen.

The real reason I link this though is because of a blurb toward the end of the article...that the Governor of Taiz has taken over the military and intelligence apparatus located in the province and that he is essentially governing a city state. Even more interesting is the governor in question is part of a merchantile family that controls a significant portion of what counts as Yemeni wealth.

He's allied to Hadi, don't get me wrong, but I think we now know who would take control of the internationally recognized regime should something happen to the current President beyond what has already transpired.

So it would appear the Yemeni President and his cabinet are resigning.

Yup, although it's unknown whether Parliament will accept the resignation. Ties into what Shinra said above, though.

This is juicier, though, because this week i have to write a mock diplomatic cable. Hadi's attempted resignation is the perfect fodder for that, because now i can just write a cable telling him not to resign.

It was Hadi's only winning move, to fall on his sword. If he kept balking at implementing reforms, he'd have been chased out of Sana'a if not imprisoned. Or killed. Governing out of Taiz, he'd have been second banana to his own governor, governing out of Aden, it'd be too perfect of an opportunity for the Hirak to pull a Houthi on him. Again. If he tried to fight, he'd have sapped what little strength he still had (or supposedly has. No one outside of Sana'a, including areas nominally under his control, bothered to lift a finger....)

I'll be interested to see how this plays out now. Hadi would have had to go eventually, but I figured the Houthis would have captured the remaining ten percent of former North Yemen they don't hold.

Yemen Times is saying they've rejected his resignation and, by the rules in the constitution currently in effect, he can't try to resign again for the next three months. That said, if he does so again a second time, Parliament can't stop him.

Of course, it takes a supermajority of 280/301 votes (or so it seems) to forestall a resignation. The article asks, and I have to concur, how the hell they managed to herd that many lawmakers within a space of hours....

EDIT-

Given how little attention is paid to the law, I guess it really comes down to whether the Houthis want him gone or not....

edited 22nd Jan '15 2:42:38 PM by FFShinra

So Hadi's resignation has sped up events.

The Air Force academy in Sana'a, located next to Hadi's private residence, has been seized.

Reuters is reporting that the US Embassy is drawing down operations, that the Parliament had not yet decided on the issue since they will only hold their emergency session on Saturday (taking what I previously posted into question).

Most importantly, there have not only been attacks against military convoys in Aden, but that the local security committee which had briefly shut down the port yesterday has issued an order saying to local forces not to listen to any orders not issued locally. Supposedly the latter is due to indignation over Hadi's treatment as a southerner.

Coupled about what we know is happening in Taiz, and I'd say Hadi was the only thing holding what remained of the central government together. Because now? You have two statelets. And, more worryingly, have heard nothing about the East since Hadi called the ceasefire and especially not since he resigned.

My advice from the US government in our diplomatic cable was for him to resign only after he found a suitable replacement, lest it set everything back.

He may still have to, if the Parliament rules against him. Unless he flees home south anyway.

But who would he choose? Another willing stooge like himself to just act as an on-paper administrator and most likely kicked to the curb by the Houthis as soon as he steps in? A consensus candidate like Bahah was for the P Mship to perhaps try to get the transition back on track? Or does he punt it to the Governor of Taiz, who would most certainly move government operations to him rather than go to Sana'a and continue resisting?

A consensus leader who can help guide the constitutional process. Houthi moves lately seem like they're willing to play ball, they just want to make damn sure they get a strong seat at the table.

Seems its a moot point. NYT is reporting that the Houthis accepted his resignation (though they're still currently holding him effectively under house arrest) and indeed are apparantly planning for what their next steps are going to be.

Also, the former PDRY flag has been seen flying above the airport and local security headquarters in Aden. Coupled with recent actions about only following local orders and shutting down things when Hadi was still being harassed, I'm guessing the Hirak is making their move.

What I find curious is why they oppose the Houthis, who have thus far always supported their aspirations. It may be they just can no longer trust northerners (understandable), anger at the Houthi bullying of southerners (of which both Hadi and bin Mubarak are), could just be rhetoric (since in practice, they haven't opposed the Houthis), or it could be a power struggle between the factions of the southern movement.

It will be interesting to see if Taiz tries to wield any authority.

Gah, maybe this is why they pulled back, having convinced him to simply leave.

Maybe there won't be a Yemen by the time this semester is over...

Aren't you glad ya stuck with it?

I'm officially confused about the resignation. Houthis seem happy to be rid of the guy, but its not gonna be official until the Parliament votes on it this weekend. Saleh has absolute majority, so it will be interesting to see if he sees it the way the Houthis do or if he diverges.

It seems that order from that security committee to not listen to Sana'a isn't just in Aden city. The surrounding provinces of Abyan and Lahij as well as the province of ad Dali (which was always under northern control but is majority Sunni and the gateway between Aden and Sana'a), all of which fall under the Fourth Military Region, are following the security committee. This might be a nascent new South Yemen, but its unclear if they and the Hirak are cooperating.

Notably, no one is hearing anything out of Taiz province, despite nominally being under central government control. And the desert provinces of Shabwah and Hadhramaut have kept mum this entire conflict, though AQAP keeps assassinating or attempting to assasinate security officers, most recently a successful attack in Al Mukalla, the largest city in Hadhramaut and in the east in general.

Marib plans on resisting a potentially imminent Houthi advance. Mahra has made noise about reestablishing the old Sultanate that includes itself and the island of Socotra.

edited 23rd Jan '15 12:22:39 PM by FFShinra