The Arab Spring

There probably was plenty of grassroots brutality heaped by the army onto the civilian populace, considering how much the two hated each other when the war began.

But were they as bad as say, the mass hangings in Tulle, France committed in late World War II by 2nd SS Panzer Division "Das Reich"?

That would be a question for professional historians in the decades to come, not us.

And as an aside, "Das Reich" wasn't that prolific at mass hangings. Look up Ordnungspolizei in Eastern Europe if you want to see some real professionals in the field of hanging people at work.

edited 3rd Feb '16 6:11:19 AM by KnitTie

I see, thanks.

So there are reports of a major offensive in northern Aleppo, and that the government has broken the siege against its forces in Nubl and Zahraa...the act of doing which has now also cut off the rebels in Aleppo from their Turkish supply line. If the rebels don't reverse the government's gains here, they'll be completely dependant on their supply lines coming from Idlib.

EDIT-

Oh and the peace talks are now officially threatened because of this action.

edited 3rd Feb '16 8:47:37 AM by FFShinra

Talks have been suspended.

No beer for Marquis.

edited 3rd Feb '16 11:06:19 AM by KnitTie

Quick study outsourcing thing, I don't suppose anyone has come across an actual copy of the leaked John Kerry Syria timeline? The one that was dismissed as just a staff level drafted rough guide for Kerry but made the news because it didn't have Assad going for quite a while? I've found plen of stories about it but nothing actually showing the full leaked document, just news stories repeating snippets of it.

I found nothing but secondary sources as well.

edited 3rd Feb '16 3:47:35 PM by KnitTie

So it seems the Russian military is now saying a Turkish invasion may be imminent. Might be propaganda, might be true, hard to know anything for sure considering the players involved. That said, there have been other sustained reports on Turkish actions (minefield clearing, artillery support, and so on) that leads some credence to the claim.

In other news, the Kurds seem to have sided with the government. There is reporting that their forces in Afrin are staging a breakout against rebel positions in what is now the Azaz pocket, just north of where the government established a corridor to Nubl.

CNN also reported the Kurds threatened to suspend cooperation with the US if they weren't invited to the talks.

Turkey invading will throw my entire assignment into chaos, though it may give my group an advantage, as I actually did bring up the possibility of a Turkish invasion during our first meeting.

You think the US will be able to keep them from attacking the Kurds, or for that matter the Kurds attacking them.

Oh wow, really?

Assist the Kurds, who have been consistantly in step with the US and Europe but whose victory would only help Russia and Assad, or assist the Turks, who want to continue the war but who is also an official and strategic ally....

Decisions, decisions....

Personally, I'd help the Kurds.

The PYD ain't the Iraqi regional government. The former is affiliated with former commie terrorists and is also not directly beholden to American help like their Iraqi bretheren are. As for stopping Turkey, Ankara is no minnow militarily, and would require a larger commitment to stop than it would be to simply invade Syria itself.

edited 4th Feb '16 7:56:37 AM by FFShinra

Personally I'd also pick the Kurds but I doubt they'll be picked, the grand picture is always seen as the US against Russia, and Turkey is worth more then the Kurds in that ballence.

If it is as you predict (and I'd not bet against it) I will be very disappointed. Russophobia wins over logic yet again.

No matter. Things are moving so fast on the ground, Turkey probably will already have invaded by the time the US and/or NATO made a decision one way or another.

An interesting report on the media coverage of the negotiations, even if they were only a week long. Funny media is funny.

If Turkey invades, would that be a definite end to Assad?

No idea. A Turkish invasion is a black swan event in that the dynamics would change so much no one has any clue how factions would fare.

I think he asks cuz Russia seems to be thinking that Turkey is indeed preparing to assault syria, from what I read

A Turkish invasion could mean anything, we've no idea why Turkey woudl fight if it invaded and what bits of Syria it would invade.

They would probably try to establish a safe area for their rebels and if their really ballsy force Assad to withdraw from Allepo. But that would bring them into conflict with Assad, and probably the Russians. Regardless of the political implications, those S-400's and 300's will ensure the Turks will be in for a rough fight.

Yeah, but it means that Russia's existing plans end up in a circular file. Turkey isn't Russia, but they are the strongest military power in the region.

If they start it though, Turkey will lose its NATO protections (there is no way Europe, in its current mood, would back Turkey if Russia started hitting back, apart from maybe the Baltics). That war would escalate quickly.

Russo-Turkish War Mk. 13? I doubt it. I believe both sides recognize what a disaster that would be. If the Turks do invade, they will probably just limit themselves to occupying the area separating the Kurdish territory and creating a rebel safe zone.

edited 4th Feb '16 1:26:21 PM by Nihlus1