Pandemics and Epidemiology (COVID-19, monkeypox, etc.)

If SARS didn't do it, then I highly doubt the current coronavirus would, seeing as it's not nearly as severe.

That's reassuring. Thanks. There's a video floating around the web (not sure if real) but with people's (rough) translations, I'm still concerned about this whole mess, but I feel just a little bit better right now.

Here it is.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 24th 2020 at 9:34:04 AM

It's winter and everyone has the flu. Plus a city of Wuhan's size sees hundreds of deaths from various causes every day, probably more now that the healthcare system is getting overwhelmed. Doesn't make things better for the coronavirus outbreak, but doesn't make it the end of the world either.

Censorship is a big issue (less so now than, say, a couple of weeks back), but it's simply quite difficult to gauge the situation accurately in the middle of a mass panic. Major Chinese cities like Wuhan rely on millions of migrant workers from the countryside, living on temporary working permits. Lose the permit, and you're effectively an illegal immigrant in your own country.

Migrant workers are less educated on average, less online (meaning less digital footprint to track), and they have limited access to the city's social services; if you're registered to a rural hukou, good luck getting a big city hospital to accept your insurance. Without ready access to the healthcare system (which is already a nightmare for the urban middle class), they're often left to fend for themselves with traditional or over-the-counter medication. When they do travel, it's usually with hard-to-track buses, trucks and vans - and these folks work twelve hours a day, six days a week just so they can go home to their families once a year for the Spring Festival, so that trip is quite a big deal indeed.

On top of that, it's a time-honoured tradition for authorities everywhere to blame poor outsiders in times of crisis, so you could imagine why many victims might be less than willing to come forward with their mystery disease. And with all the resources being poured into major cities, those who travelled to the countryside before the lockdown risk getting left out of the healthcare net altogether.

And huh, Plague Inc. is apparently topping the Chinese app stores at the moment. My flatmates and I already get together for Pandemic every other week, so this weekend's as good as any.

Melbourne just reported its first case. Doesn't sound great for the respiration, especially with the recent smoke from the bushfires.

Welp, I just learned a bit. Thanks a-plenty! Now I feel... still a little concerned, but plenty reassured and educated!

But let's not forget that we've come quite a long way since SARS, we're detecting these kinds of infections much faster, and we're taking action quicker these days... though indeed, like some have said around social media, I think China may have reacted a little too late to the spread of "2019-NCov" (2019 novel coronavirus; we need to come up with a better, catchier name. ) I guess it's understandable. After all, the initial cases report that they didn't start getting symptoms until about a week after.

But yeah I dunno, I guess I've always felt some sort concern or empathy whenever I've heard someone got sick, especially a group of people in an outbreak like this. I hope people stay safe and be well, and I hope this whole mess blows over before we even know it. Again, thanks.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 24th 2020 at 10:19:51 AM

No fearmongering, just a simple question:

How scared should I be about this?

Edited by MrHellboy on Jan 24th 2020 at 10:31:07 AM

Look, if someone like me who actually lives and works in Taiwan is not too afraid...

Edited by M84 on Jan 25th 2020 at 1:05:45 AM

The married couple who tried to escape the anti-virus lockdown don't have my sympathies.

Same with that Chinese woman in Paris.

One thing people tend to forget is that modern, industrialized societies are highly resistant to disease. China has some issues that are no doubt exacerbating the situation, but fears of a global pandemic are a little unreasonable.

Wash your hands, eat healthy and don't do anything to make yourself sick. Anything with Vitamin C is good to boost your immune system with.

If you have a pre-existing health condition, or if you live with a small child, senior or pet, you might want to take an extra step and avoid airports and spots frequented by Chinese nationals. If that's not possible (a third of my office/lab is Chinese), try putting on a surgical mask.

But above all, don't panic. Take it from someone living with generalised anxiety: stress kills your immune system like nothing else does.

The best defense to this kind of outbreak is have good hygeine, take some vitamins if necessary, and be aware of your surrondings. If someone is having flu or fever like symptoms, get that person to the hospital right away.

That being said, I'm not surprised with the coronavirus outbreak that happened in China. A lot of the fish and animal markets aren't as regulated when compared to United States (some of these Chinese markets even sell dog meat). Also, the coronavirus outbreak is made worse in China when you realize that China's population density is pretty high, making the transmission of the virus more dangerous (plus the outbreak is occurring in the peak of the Chinese New Year where a lot of Chinese people would be travelling).

Edited by DarkPaladinX on Jan 25th 2020 at 1:57:11 AM

Lax hygiene, lax food safety regulations, selling wild game meat (this virus apparently came from snakes), extreme population density, lots of mass transit, a government that cares more about looking competent than actually being competent...

And sheer numbers. Patient Zero is more likely to be in a country with over a billion inhabitants than in one with nine million.

For Texas specifically, the Department of State Health Services has confirmed they are testing 4 possible cases of coronavirus. Outside of the TAMU student in College Station, there was a reported case of a Baylor University student in Waco, and the other two's locations have not been given out.

Chinese MOFA allowed DC to evacuate American diplomats/staff in their Wuhan consulate via chartered plane.

No one knows, even Beijing, if Americans living/working/studying there will leave too.

Reuters broke it.

January 25th, 2020: Daily Coronavirus Mega-post

I'll be compiling fact and news updates each day, starting today, until there's a slowdown in news and facts... except I decided later that maybe I'll make smaller, easier-to-stomach posts. After reading this post, just move on to the others.

Notice: I will continue updating this post as new info arrives, until this post is buried, the day is over, or otherwise this post is too long.

BIG UPDATE: I have updated this post to categorize each update. ANOTHER BIG UPDATE: I have updated this post to shorten the CNN news updates to a summary capping off the live updates for 01/25/20.

Current fatality rate: Just reminding everyone that according to The Other Wiki, the global average fatality rate for SARS back from Nov 2002-Jul 2003 was 9.6%, judged on a total of 8,273 confirmed cases, and 775 deaths, and 60 of thoses cases died due to other causes. The current fatality rate for 2019-nCoV sits at 4%, based on a global total of approx 1,400 confirmed cases, and 42 deaths (all of the deaths have occurred in China). This may change if more fatal cases occur, but for now, take solace in knowing that the new coronavirus is less deadly than the 02-03 SARS outbreak.

CNN news summary:

Suspected/confirmed cases: We have our first suspected case of WuCoV in Portugal, and wouldn't you know it, it's another traveler from Wuhan. He was admitted to Hospital Curry Cabral in Lisbon, and results from medical tests are pending, according to The Other Wiki.

And another suspected case, this time in Turkey.

We have a confirmed case in Canada now, according to The Other Wiki.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 7:21:53 AM

There's a theory going around Twitter, suggested by online news outlets like Daily Mail, that claims the coronavirus didn't originate from snakes in a seafood market in Wuhan, but rather the virus leaked out from a lab there, built to study viruses and diseases such as SARS and Ebola, that opened two years ago. People had raised concerns the year before that a SARS-like virus could escape the lab, and more and more people are beginning to believe that that is what has happened.

While the theory on WuCoV's origin doesn't sound all that far-fetched, my opinion is that we have no confirmation yet, and probably won't for a while, until officials over in China either confirm or deny such claims. Personally, it doesn't matter whether they come out with the truth or not, I would say this is a major blow for the reputation of the totalitarian Chinese government (I'm a US citizen, I can say this kind of stuff without getting detained; freedom of speech), as they'd been hush-hush about the outbreak, and then, when it got worse, they suddenly admitted there was an epidemic going on.

So I'd rather we don't assume such things just yet.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 5:44:36 AM

It's the Daily Mail. Are you really gonna believe anything they say?

Edited by kkhohoho on Jan 25th 2020 at 5:14:24 AM

No, of course not. Otherwise, I wouldn't be skeptical about the theory. I'm not saying it's too far-fetched, but I think it's only a coincidence, at least until we have proof.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 6:15:39 AM

You could've fooled me. It seems like you're working yourself up and believing all the doomsaying and hearsay despite speaking against such things. Not saying you shouldn't be informed, but if you don't want to get yourself and everyone else in a tizzy, maybe you should stick to the facts?

Not really believing the hearsay or doomsaying, and I, in fact, have stuck to the facts told on CNN; it's just that I noticed that Twits (my nickname for people who use Twitter, myself included,) have noticed the coincidence, and are theorizing that there is a connection, while I think there might just be none at all. We, the general public, and for me that means everyone on this planet, not just my country, just don't know for certain.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 6:27:22 AM

That's not sticking to the facts.

The Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre in Ontario just confirmed that a coronavirus case in the province. Hopefully it doesn’t stray to BC.

My bro just moved back.

I'm saying I'm not shaken by theories, and I don't want others to jump to conclusions. We don't know if the lab and the market are connected. That hasn't been confirmed, and I don't really believe it. And maybe I've mostly stuck to the facts, but I'm not saying I believe the theory, rather I'm skeptical of it; there is no proof that it originated from the lab. That's all I'm saying.

EDIT: looking at the quote of mine, I guess I should've worded it better. Maybe something like this:

I mentioned that in my mega-post.

Edited by AngrokVa on Jan 25th 2020 at 6:48:54 AM

https://globalnews.ca/video/6462839/coronavirus-outbreak-health-officials-provide-details-on-presumptive-case-in-toronto

Global has a vid on the Ontario case.

There’s no evidence whatsoever of this originating in a lab. Stop spreading conspiracies.

Edited by archonspeaks on Jan 25th 2020 at 3:51:03 AM