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Pendrake That Guy from "Sweet Something of.... Someplace!" (Canada) Since: Jan, 2017 Relationship Status: Betrayed by Delilah
That Guy
#64151: May 15th 2022 at 6:54:02 PM

[up][up][up] Ten systems, each with ten drones.

But an even hundred still ain't much.

Semper Fi. Semper Paratus. Vigilo Confido.
Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#64152: May 15th 2022 at 7:08:09 PM

https://twitter.com/kms_d4k/status/1524506104192974849

Long tweet chain, but the Ukrainian Army EOD export described what happened and how the op was pulled off in Siverskyi Donets.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#64153: May 15th 2022 at 7:43:02 PM

[up][up] It's 10 drones total. From the article:

"In support of Ukraine, the Switchblade 600 is being procured under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative,” Defense Department spokesperson Jessica Maxwell said in a statement on May 10. “The Department has no active contract for Switchblade 600s and has only procured a small number of prototypes for research and development purposes.”

The Pentagon is “actively working to establish a contract” to procure 10 Switchblade 600 drones, Maxwell said. The delivery date of those is not known and will be set once the contract is finalized, she said.

This really isn't too surprising. The 600 is barely off the drawing board, Aerovironment only just began development on it in October 2020. It's very much still a prototype, so I'm sure the designers are eager to see it used in live combat.

Like I mentioned on the previous page, I don't think tank-killing drones really fit into Ukraine's existing RPA tactics. Just compare Ukraine's use of the TB-2 to Azerbaijan's use of them in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Edited by archonspeaks on May 15th 2022 at 7:51:33 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Pendrake That Guy from "Sweet Something of.... Someplace!" (Canada) Since: Jan, 2017 Relationship Status: Betrayed by Delilah
That Guy
#64154: May 15th 2022 at 7:51:58 PM

Guess it's just the 300s in sets of 10, then. They aren't tank busters, but they are good at taking out entrenched positions like Machine gun nests, or dealing with light vehicles, though.

Little Curious about the "Phoenix Ghosts" and whether or not that number is systems or number of drones, but given they don't share parts with Javelins unlike the 600, it's anyone's guess. And given they're classified, it'll be awhile until we actually see footage of one, most likely what's left of one after it's hit a Russian position, assuming there's even any recognizable debris from its detonation.

[down] They were specifically said to be loitering munitions by Kirby. Cheap to make, easy to train on, especially if you're already familiar with Switchblades, and capable of engaging light and medium vehicles (potentially Helos too), but not Tanks. As well as being able to loiter somewhere for six hours.

https://www.airforce-technology.com/comment/phoenix-ghost-drone-switchblade/

It's possible you're confusing it with the BAE Systems Phoenix, which is also a drone and fits that description.

There's been some claims by a Russian Telegram channel that they have pictures of the wreckage of a Phoenix Ghost, but there's no way to know for sure as of yet.

Edited by Pendrake on May 15th 2022 at 8:10:10 AM

Semper Fi. Semper Paratus. Vigilo Confido.
Imca (Veteran)
#64155: May 15th 2022 at 7:58:30 PM

There a comunications drone from my understanding, not a munitions.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#64156: May 15th 2022 at 8:21:03 PM

The Phoenix Ghosts were passive observation microdrones from my understanding.

I've never heard anything suggesting they were loitering munitions or had any offensive capability.

Nor is there any evidence that the Ukrainians are familiar with Switchblades or have been using the 300 model so far.

Edited by LeGarcon on May 15th 2022 at 11:21:35 AM

Oh really when?
FluffyMcChicken My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare from where the floating lights gleam Since: Jun, 2014 Relationship Status: In another castle
My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare
#64157: May 15th 2022 at 8:36:32 PM

When the last the time there was a major war that so strained Western defense production that defense manufacturers were unable to meet the demands of whoever was fighting on behalf of the Western bloc?

I would guess the 2003 Iraq War.

Imca (Veteran)
#64158: May 15th 2022 at 8:44:53 PM

Actualy they have been using the 300 quite a bit Gar, we have photo and video proof of that one.... they launch them from funny little mortar tubes.

AFP Since: Mar, 2010
#64159: May 15th 2022 at 8:45:04 PM

I know WWII famously saw the US running into significant problems meeting demand for new weapons systems. Took them a few years to get to the point where Ford and GM were building aircraft, and even then the quality was kind of iffy from those plants.

A wartime industrial footing is very expensive, and usually not practical to sustain during peacetime.

eagleoftheninth Shop all day, greed is free from a dreamed portrait, imperfect Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
Shop all day, greed is free
#64160: May 15th 2022 at 9:00:15 PM

Every major modern war has chewed through munitions faster than anyone predicted beforehand. The NATO intervention in Libya nearly emptied out the UK and France's stocks of guided air-to-ground weapons over six months; it's just that there were no perceived threats on the horizon that drove anyone to scale up production at the time.

One day, we will read his name in the news and cheer.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#64161: May 15th 2022 at 9:03:37 PM

A wartime industrial footing is very expensive, and usually not practical to sustain during peacetime.

Now try to imagine sustaining a wartime industrial footing while you are officially in peacetime even when you're actually in the middle of a war you started. Meaning you cannot activate war time protocols to speed up production.

Disgusted, but not surprised
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#64162: May 15th 2022 at 9:17:17 PM

[up][up][up][up]So they are but all the videos I can find seem to be from last week.

I'd heard rumors they were using them for long before that but without any evidence so I just kind of dismissed it and didn't bother to check again, my bad.

Oh really when?
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#64163: May 15th 2022 at 11:45:18 PM

Every major modern war has chewed through munitions faster than anyone predicted beforehand.

So is this the same thing as with nuclear power plant construction where people just ignore well-known facts and are surprised every time when the facts come back to bite them?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Imca (Veteran)
#64164: May 15th 2022 at 11:47:53 PM

Worse... they manage to do it even worse.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#64165: May 16th 2022 at 12:09:48 AM

Little Curious about the "Phoenix Ghosts" and whether or not that number is systems or number of drones,

“System” in military parlance is going to refer to the aircraft/munition, launcher, control unit, and any ancillary stuff like carrying cases. It doesn’t mean multiple aircraft.

They should have sent a poet.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#64166: May 16th 2022 at 2:52:32 AM

Found an interesting article on drone warfare Why Drones Have Not Revolutionized War: The Enduring Hider-Finder Competition in Air Warfare from here. It doesn't yet have any input from the Ukraine conflict, though - understandable, in the middle of a war it's hard to make accurate estimates of what works and what doesn't, and accurate research takes time anyway.

I admit I find their point about people analyzing new technology exclusively from an offensive point the most interesting one, since I've privately mused about how one could employ tethered drones to spot targets for ground-based anti-air defence systems w/o terrain being in the way. At least to my understanding, this would be a defensive use of drones.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
AFP Since: Mar, 2010
#64167: May 16th 2022 at 4:34:38 AM

The US uses balloons for that, called Aerostats. Basically they are blimps tethered to the ground and mounting assorted detection equipment. A very WWI solution for a 21st century problem.

A few years ago there was a very embarrassing incident where one broke its leash and went rogue.

Pendrake That Guy from "Sweet Something of.... Someplace!" (Canada) Since: Jan, 2017 Relationship Status: Betrayed by Delilah
That Guy
#64168: May 16th 2022 at 5:02:31 AM

[up][up][up]

Loitering Munitions tend to be considered "Ammo," rather than Aircraft. A Switchblade 300 system comes with ten. And the Carrying case per Aero Vironment's commercials for them matches that.

Speaking of Switchblades: https://www.uasvision.com/2021/10/18/general-dynamics-land-systems-trx-can-launch-50-switchblade-suicide-drones/ TRX is an unmanned Drone Carrier. Apparently planned to support the Ripsaw "Loyal Wingman" Drone Tank.

@Imca @Le Garcon: "The Phoenix Ghost is a small unmanned aerial combat vehicle, which instead of carrying a separate explosive warhead, is itself the explosive, to be used as a suicide munition. It was designed by Aevex Aerospace and, according to a senior US defense official, provides a similar capability to the Aero Vironment Switchblade. Although it can be used for reconnaissance functions even at night, through the use of infrared sensors, its main mission is attack, with a flight autonomy of more than six hours." Per Wikipedia, which is a repeat of every US announcement on them thusfar as well.

Edited by Pendrake on May 16th 2022 at 6:02:23 AM

Semper Fi. Semper Paratus. Vigilo Confido.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#64169: May 16th 2022 at 6:11:05 AM

[up] US DoD considers them missiles, Aerovironment considers them RPAs. There’s no hard and fast definitions here.

Either way, the whole “a system is 10” is not correct. That’s a claim that’s pretty common across low-quality defense journalism right now, it appears to have originated from this tweet [1] stating that an unnamed government official said off the record that “system” meant 10. No other government source, official or unofficial, has repeated this claim, and that particular account has engaged in spreading misinformation in the past. The budget laid out for assistance, specifically for the purchase of Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems, is not in line with a tenfold increase in units purchased. Finally, Aerovironment only offers the Switchblade as an individual manpack system or a six round multipack launcher, they do not currently offer a 10-round system. There is a commercial that shows the multipack launcher in use, but again it doesn’t contain 10 rounds. Multipacks are also unlikely to make up the entirety of the shipment to Ukraine.

Please check sources more carefully.

Edited by archonspeaks on May 16th 2022 at 6:13:29 AM

They should have sent a poet.
Pendrake That Guy from "Sweet Something of.... Someplace!" (Canada) Since: Jan, 2017 Relationship Status: Betrayed by Delilah
TuefelHundenIV Night Clerk of the Apocalypse from Doomsday Facility Corner Store. Since: Aug, 2009 Relationship Status: I'd need a PowerPoint presentation
Night Clerk of the Apocalypse
#64171: May 16th 2022 at 8:50:17 AM

Here, this article from Bloomberg, only a few days old, has details on the Switchblade Shipments. Bloomberg is a reasonably reliable source.

The Defense Department is negotiating with Aero Vironment Inc. to buy 10 of a new armor-piercing model of its Switchblade dive-bombing drone.

“The department is actively working to establish a contract to procure 10 Switchblade 600’s,” Pentagon spokeswoman Jessica Maxwell said in a statement Wednesday. “The delivery date of these will be defined upon contract award.”

Although Pentagon officials have previously said they intended to provide the new model to Ukraine, Maxwell, the spokeswoman, said, “The department has no active contract for Switchblade 600s and has only procured a small number of prototypes for research and development purposes.
This is exactly what LRIP is for, not supplying weapons to a war. I would honestly be more shocked if they could just sit down and belt out 10 units at a similar rate to to their more established 300 series.

So the 600's aren't even paid for yet and the US government is working on a contract for 10.

As for the 300 series.

The US has committed to send at least 700 Switchblades to Ukraine and at least 100 already have arrived. Those have been the Series-300 model — 5.5-pound (2.5-kilogram) drones designed to attack personnel and light vehicles. They can fly about six miles (10 kilometers) and loiter over a target roughly 15 minutes, according to a Aero Vironment fact sheet.

Summary. The US has sent 100 Switchblade 300 series DRONES and plans to up that max commitment to 700. They are also in the process of negotiating a purchase of 10 Switchblade 600 series for some future date.

Who watches the watchmen?
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#64172: May 16th 2022 at 10:48:59 AM

[up][up] That video shows what looks like 4 BMPTs driving down a street. Keep in mind that those 4 vehicles represent almost half of Russia's entire BMPT fleet (9 vehicles) and the BMPT is widely loathed by the Russian military establishment.

My personal opinion is that a machine like the Terminator is dubious. Simply because it does not have any advantages that are significant over the main battle tank. Neither in terms of the fire control system, nor in terms of the capabilities of conducting reconnaissance, surveillance and target designation, nor in terms of the capabilities of their weapons. That is why I say that finding the Terminator's place in battle formation is problematic In terms of its reconnaissance capabilities, the BMPT offers nothing to surpass the means of observation and fire control of the contemporary tanks

— Viktor Ivanovich Murahovskij, Expert Member at Military and Industrial Council of Russian Federation

If I had to guess, this deployment represents one of two things. First, it could be a sign of increasing frustration or desperation at the Kremlin, leading them to throw anything and everything they can call up out to the front. Second, it could be a "red meat for the base" type of situation: despite its failure as a concept, the BMPT makes frequent appearances in Russian propaganda.

[up] Thank you. It should definitely be stressed that the Switchblade 600 is very, very new. I'm honestly surprised any will be going to Ukraine at all, considering they existed only as CGI not long ago.

Edited by archonspeaks on May 16th 2022 at 10:50:23 AM

They should have sent a poet.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#64173: May 16th 2022 at 10:55:50 AM

Third possibility: They are sending it to Ukraine in order to get rid of it.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
math792d Since: Jun, 2011 Relationship Status: Drift compatible
#64174: May 16th 2022 at 2:27:42 PM

In "news that in any other year would sound like a shitpost" news, the Texas National Guard is thinking about starting a union.

Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.
eagleoftheninth Shop all day, greed is free from a dreamed portrait, imperfect Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
Shop all day, greed is free
#64175: May 16th 2022 at 2:30:14 PM

New York Times: Biden Approves Plan to Redeploy Several Hundred Ground Forces Into Somalia.

    Article 
WASHINGTON — President Biden has signed an order authorizing the military to once again deploy hundreds of Special Operations forces inside Somalia — largely reversing the decision by President Donald J. Trump to withdraw nearly all 700 ground troops who had been stationed there, according to four officials familiar with the matter.

In addition, Mr. Biden has approved a Pentagon request for standing authority to target about a dozen suspected leaders of Al Shabab, the Somali terrorist group that is affiliated with Al Qaeda, three of the officials said. Since Mr. Biden took office, airstrikes have largely been limited to those meant to defend partner forces facing an immediate threat.

Together, the decisions by Mr. Biden, described by the officials on the condition of anonymity, will revive an open-ended American counterterrorism operation that has amounted to a slow-burn war through three administrations. The move stands in contrast to his decision last year to pull American forces from Afghanistan, saying that “it is time to end the forever war.”

Mr. Biden signed off on the proposal by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III in early May, officials said. In a statement, Adrienne Watson, the National Security Council spokeswoman, acknowledged the move, saying it would enable “a more effective fight against Al Shabab.”

“The decision to reintroduce a persistent presence was made to maximize the safety and effectiveness of our forces and enable them to provide more efficient support to our partners,” she said.

Ms. Watson did not indicate the number of troops the military would deploy. But two people familiar with the matter said the figure would be capped at around 450. That will replace a system in which the U.S. troops training and advising Somali and African Union forces have made short stays since Mr. Trump issued what Ms. Watson described as a “precipitous decision to withdraw.”

The Biden administration’s strategy in Somalia is to try to reduce the threat from Al Shabab by suppressing its ability to plot and carry out complicated operations, a senior administration official said. Those include a deadly attack on an American air base at Manda Bay, Kenya, in January 2020.

In particular, the official said, targeting a small leadership cadre — especially people who are suspected of playing roles in developing plots outside Somalia’s borders or having special skills — is aimed at curtailing “the threat to a level that is tolerable.”

Asked to square the return to heavier engagement in Somalia with the American withdrawal from Afghanistan last year, following through on a deal Mr. Trump had made with the Taliban, the senior administration official argued that the two countries presented significantly different complexities.

For one, the official said, the Taliban have not expressed an intention of attacking the United States, and other militant groups in Afghanistan do not control significant enclaves of territory from which to operate and plan.

Given that Al Shabab appears to pose a more significant threat, the administration concluded that more direct engagement in Somalia made sense, the official said. The strategy would focus on disrupting a few Shabab leaders who are deemed a direct peril to “us, and our interests and our allies,” and maintaining “very carefully cabined presence on the ground to be able to work with our partners.”

Some outside analysts criticized the move, including Sarah Harrison, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group who is the lead author of an upcoming report on U.S. policy in Somalia. The United States had been trying to curb Al Shabab using military force for 15 years, and it had not worked, she said; it might have even prolonged the conflict.

“Sending in more U.S. troops and honing in on a small number of senior Al Shabab leadership is narrow in its aims and by definition cannot end the broader military fight absent more concerted and effective diplomatic and political efforts by the United States and others,” she said.

Intelligence officials estimate that Al Shabab has about 5,000 to 10,000 members; the group, which formally pledged allegiance to Al Qaeda in 2012, has sought to impose its extremist version of Islam on the chaotic Horn of Africa country.

While Al Shabab mostly fights inside Somalia and only occasionally attacks neighboring countries, some members are said to harbor ambitions to strike the United States. In December 2020, prosecutors in Manhattan charged an accused Shabab operative from Kenya with plotting a Sept. 11-style attack on an American city. He had been arrested in the Philippines as he trained to fly planes.

Mr. Biden’s decision followed months of interagency deliberations led by the White House’s top counterterrorism adviser, Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall, over whether to accept the Pentagon plan, maintain the status quo or further reduce engagement in Somalia.

In evaluating those options, Ms. Sherwood-Randall and other top security officials visited Somalia and nearby Kenya and Djibouti, both of which host American forces, in October.

The administration’s deliberations about whether and how to more robustly go back into Somalia have been complicated by political chaos there, as factions in its fledgling government fought each other and elections were delayed. But Somalia recently elected a new parliament, and over the weekend, leaders selected a new president, deciding to return to power Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who led the country from 2012 to 2017.

An incoming senior official on Mr. Mohamud’s team welcomed the Biden administration’s move.

It was both timely and a step in the right direction because it “coincides with the swearing-in of the newly elected president who would be planning his offensive on Al Shabab,” the official said.

For months, American commanders have warned that the short-term training missions that U.S. Special Operations forces have conducted in Somalia since Mr. Trump withdrew most American troops in January 2021 have not worked well. The morale and capacity of the partner units have been eroding, they say.

Of each eight-week cycle, the senior administration official said, American trainers spend about three unengaged with partner forces because the Americans were either not in Somalia or focused on transit — and the travel in and out was the most dangerous part. Other officials have also characterized the system of rotating in and out, rather than being persistently deployed there, as expensive and inefficient.

“Our periodic engagement — also referred to as commuting to work — has caused new challenges and risks for our troops,” Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, the head of the Pentagon’s Africa Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in March. “My assessment is that it is not effective.”

Intelligence officials have raised growing alarm about Al Shabab over the past several years as it has expanded its territory in Somalia. In its final year in office, the Obama administration had deemed Al Shabab to be part of the armed conflict the United States authorized against the perpetrators of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Once Mr. Trump became president, he loosened controls on airstrikes there, and the Pentagon significantly escalated American combat activity. But shortly before leaving office, Mr. Trump ordered most American troops to pull out of Somalia — except for a small force that has guarded American diplomats at a bunker by the airport in Mogadishu.

On its first day in office, the Biden administration suspended a permissive set of targeting rules put in place by the Trump administration, instead requiring requests for strikes — except in self-defense — to be routed through the White House. (Africa Command also invoked that exception for strikes undertaken in the “collective” self-defense of Somali partner forces.)

That pause was supposed to take only a few months while the Biden administration reviewed how targeting rules had worked under both the Trump and Obama administrations and devised its own. But even though it has largely completed a proposed replacement described as a hybrid between the two preceding versions, final approval of that has stalled amid competing national security policy matters.

The military, for its part, has tried to continue training, advising and assisting Somali and African Union forces without a persistent presence on the ground, but gradually increased the length of shorter stays. During a visit to Somalia in February, General Townsend warned of the threat Al Shabab posed to the region.

“Al Shabab remains Al Qaeda’s largest, wealthiest and most deadly affiliate, responsible for the deaths of thousands of innocents, including Americans,” he said. “Disrupting Al Shabab’s malign intent requires leadership from Somalis and continued support from Djibouti, Kenya, the U.S. and other members of the international community.”

One day, we will read his name in the news and cheer.

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