Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality

Maybe he actually gets Voldemort to feel remorse.

Wait, shit, guys...

I was just thinking over what happened in HJPEV's memory of what happened when his mother died. The bargain didn't go through at all like in the original story; she took it back and tried to just kill Voldemort. This means that, going off of the logic of the original book, Harry should have been unprotected.

Occam's Razor suggests that he was unprotected.

What if, as Harry has already suggested, the prophecy is already over? What if one of the two DID destroy all but a remnant of the other? But what if that one was Voldemort, not Harry? What if Voldemort decided to intentionally make Harry a Horcrux, overwriting whatever identity he would have otherwise had, and then he intentionally "died" and assumed another identity, so that this piece of himself would apparently have been the heroic victor? What if that's the real explanation for why this Harry is so different from canon Harry? What if it's not part of the starting premise of the fic - what if it's just a natural consequence of a Rationalmort? Of course, all of this would have been Obliviated from Harry, as he obviously doesn't know any of it - but there are signs that Harry has been Obliviated. The real question is, who Obliviated Harry? Did Voldemort do it, with the intent of restoring the memories later, after Harrymort had had a chance to have his own magical childhood and education? Or did some good-aligned figure do it, with the intent of turning a part of Voldemort's own soul against him?

Occam's razor favors the simplest explanation that explains the observed facts. Occam's Razor only favors Harry being unprotected if an explanation that entails that he was unprotected manages to be simpler while accounting for our observations.

If that interpretation were true, then in what respect did Harry have "the power to vanquish" Voldemort? Besides which, I really doubt that destroying his body and forcing himself to fall back on his horcruxes would be the most convenient way in which Quirrelmort could have faked his death supposing he intended to do so. It certainly doesn't seem that he's satisfied with his reduced state.

I think I covered that possibility earlier on in the thread. It could be a fun exercise for me at least to dig out all my posts so far, hack them into some sort of coherent order and liveblog it.

I wouldn't trust Harry's memory of his parents very much if I were you. I've commented on that elsewhere in the thread - I strongly suspect that the memory was faked.

Desertopa #4617

Desertopa #4620

This thread is getting boring. I shall try and start something! Post one prediction which you don't remember making in this thread before. Mine is going to be that Dumbledore did indeed lie to Harry to keep him out of the Hall of Prophecy, but did so in order to prevent him from accessing Trelawney's prophecy made at the start of Methods rather than the mid-1980s prophecy that he thinks is at issue.

Other note: has anyone seen any fan art of the pile of Harries from Chapter 86? I've been wanting that for a while.

edited 18th Mar '13 6:49:27 PM by Exetera

But he wouldn't have power to vanquish the Dark Lord that every other person alive doesn't also have, so the prophesy wouldn't be so much overdramatic as actively misleading.

Prophecies are often actively misleading. That's kinda their thing, actually. Although Dumbledore wasn't going to give anyone else the Dark Lord and a spoonful of poison, so I'd say it still kinda counts.

edited 19th Mar '13 11:28:35 AM by Exetera

Ancient Greek prophesies might be, but that doesn't seem to be the case in the Potterverse. Certainly in the original canon the prophesy was clear, accurate, and not misleading in the slightest. Since the characters who've discussed the prophesy are familiar with the usual form of prophesies in this setting, if they tended to be actively misleading, I think they would have mentioned it.

If Harry finds out about the Philosopher's Stone, I think the prophecies may get kicked to the curb in a big big hurry.

edited 19th Mar '13 12:46:55 PM by Exetera

Yes, but there's a difference between "trying to delve too deeply into interpreting a prophesy is difficult and frustrating and probably not a good use of your time" and "prophecies are actively misleading and listening to what they say at all will probably only leave you less prepared than you were to start with."

If you look at both of Sybil's prophesies in canon, they are, in places, a bit obtuse (it's not clear what it means that Voldemort will mark the one with the power to vanquish him as an equal, and she doesn't say who the servant who's going to return to him in the second prophesy is, which leads to some confusion based on their existing preconceptions,) but both of them are straightforward and explicit, and only misleading to the extent that the listeners are working from some reasonable but false assumptions to begin with.

Prophesies in the Potterverse may be somewhat self fulfilling (Voldemort went to kill Harry, and gave him his mark, as a result of hearing the prophesy,) but there's also substance beyond what they create for themselves. In the case of a baby being used to spoon Voldemort poison, practically anybody could fulfill the role just as well (most people could do it better than a baby.) In the case of the original prophesy, Voldemort wouldn't acted in the way that led to his death in the absence of the prophesy, but neither would anyone else have served equally well in Harry's place. Voldemort had killed countless people before without ever having the True Love defense sprung on him before (although the realism of that is a bit suspect,) so it's clearly not something that would happen in most attempted murders, and Harry grew up as someone particularly well suited to oppose Voldemort. It's not as if he could have been picked just as well out of a hat.

edited 19th Mar '13 1:04:17 PM by Desertopa

> neither would anyone else have served equally well in Harry's place

Not true. In canon (unsure about Methods) Neville Longbottom would also have served. In any case, anyone could have been loved enough to cause an AK backfire.

> Harry grew up as someone particularly well suited to oppose Voldemort

He was the son of two members of the Order of the Phoenix. Also a magical orphan with a prophecy about him. He would have done that anyways.

In any case, bug report, last word in the quote, Chapter 62:

> Harry took a piece of parchment (not paper) out of his parch

edited 19th Mar '13 4:38:47 PM by Exetera

In canon, the specifications of the prophesy could also have referred to Neville. That doesn't mean that had he been in Harry's place, he would have performed as well. He firmed up a lot after some character development, but Harry didn't have an upbringing that was more conducive to raising someone self reliant and courageous. It took a lot more time and encouragement to instill any sort of heroism in Neville.

And while anyone could, in theory, have been loved enough to cause an AK to backfire, that doesn't mean that just anyone would be. Since you can't really love someone on demand (at least in the canon Potterverse, not even with magic,) it's not as if the Order could have randomly selected someone and loved them enough to grant them protection.

It's rather like saying that any born citizen of the U.S. could be elected president, they'd just need to have enough people vote for them. In a sense, of course, it's true, but obviously for most people it's not a realistic prospect.

On a side note, I'm thinking it would be interesting to do an AU Harry Potter fanfiction where Neville becomes the Boy Who Lived, and the plot progresses organically from there without being tied to the events of the original canon. Neville doesn't investigate the Philosopher's Stone in his first year, Quirrell gets stopped at the Mirror of Erised, probably gets caught and Voldemort makes him kill himself in order to avoid being confined. Lucius doesn't put Riddle's diary in Ginny's school supplies next year, and the whole plot of Prisoner of Azkaban is moot because the Potters weren't killed, Peter didn't go fugitive, and Sirius was never arrested.

I'm sure someone's already tried "Events of Harry Potter with Neville as the Chosen One instead," probably several people, but I don't know if anyone's yet taken a whack at "Neville becomes the Chosen One rather than Harry, plot is completely derailed as a result."

That fanfic might be interesting, but I'm not sure if it would be interesting enough. Certainly it wouldn't have that sweet Rational-y goodness that keeps me coming back to this one. (Although, if we're talking about amusing fanfics, if anyone could recommend a well-written one where Professor Dumbledore gives Umbridge the shove five minutes into her tenure I'd appreciate that.)

Certainly it's not likely that a randomly-selected US citizen could become President, but start far enough back and it won't be nearly so apparent what citizens are more likely than others to get elected. Perhaps Bush II wouldn't be a shocking guess, but from 30 years ago you'd be hard-pressed to tip Obama for the seat. So, y'know... If there's a prophecy about a fifty-years-hence President, it really could be anyone given the information you have, even if you know to look at the sons and daughters of other Presidents a bit more closely.

edited 19th Mar '13 6:42:27 PM by Exetera

Once Methods is finished, I might track down any putative Neville is the Chosen One fic. I am pretty sure that one exists that fulfills the criteria you guys are talking about.

I am almost certain that mere love is not enough, even in canon and that Lily set that entire sacrifice and AK backfire deal up deliberately, and in advance. Remember, she knew the prophecy, and that Voldemort was going to hunt them until he found them. No one explained any of this to Harry because "We suspect your mother sacrificed herself in a deeply illegal ritual to render you immune to Voldemort" would probably not have gone over very well, but still, this should be obvious to anyone giving it two seconds thought, and means that Wizarding Britain ought to have been lauding Harry's parents as the heroes, not Harry himself. But they are all idiots, so..

Hmm.. Neville himself might be somewhat diffrent - he will grow up with parents that are dead, not incurably insane. Somewhat different stresses. Still gets raised by his Gran. Is it entirely Fanon that she is a formidable as hell old biddy, or did she get any canonical characterization?

She got canonical characterization, but mostly secondhand via Neville's impression of her. She apparently hospitalized an auror (Dawlish) who was sent to apprehend her in Deathly Hallows, as well as fighting in the Battle of Hogwarts, but it happened offstage.

I find this prediction as goofy and out-of-character as Tam's famous Evil Dumbledore. Maybe it could have happened in Methods, or a similar fanon universe, but certainly not in canon.

I feel like indulging the thread's perennial pastime: update speculation! Eliezer's been writing about 4K words/month. Last time he checked in, he was at a cliffhanger, but you could probably sufficiently defuse a cliffhanger in 4,000 words. Certainly, unless it's a real monster of a cliffhanger, you could in 8,000, at least to the degree that the ensuing nailbiting would not lead to serious injury. It also doesn't seem like there's anything obvious (at least from the perspective of an Internet lurker) that will eat Eliezer's free time. So I'm reasonably hopeful of an update within the next two (maybe three) months.

edited 20th Mar '13 12:07:21 PM by Exetera

So how does the sacrificial protection work in Methods? In fact, does it work at all? I vaguely recall EY writing something about how strange it was to say that self-sacrifice by just letting yourself die (as canon!Lily did, with obvious religious symbolism) is somehow more noble than going down fighting, but what with the attendant problems of such a concept, notably Voldemort not finding a way to invoke it and self-sacrifice apparently not having happened before, it may not be present at all, like Felix Felicis or the Fidelius Charm.

Now, something I should have noticed before: Quirrell says in chapter 77 that the third-floor corridor is warded with ancient detection and protective magic disgorged from the hoarded lore of Nicolas Flamel - but the Interdict of Merlin prevents such magic from being read by those who do not know it. Therefore, either Flamel himself memorised the lore (from where? The decline of magic was said to have started centuries before Flamel's birth), in which case one wonders why he never actively intervened against Voldemort or Grindelwald, or Quirrell is misleading Snape.

There's a simple explanation about the AK rebounding off of Harry that never really gets the attention it deserves. Dumbledore, the first wizard on the scene after the events, was lying through his teeth. It would be completely in character for him, as he uses both truth and lies as weapons.

And if the Supreme Mugwump and Heir to the Line of Merlin Unbroken tells a lie, who is going to contradict him?

As for Flamel not intervening in the fight against both Grindelwald and Riddle? Well, that's simple too. He is a selfish bastard who has hoarded the secret of immortality for himself. Why should he get involved in a fight on moral grounds? It would be completely out of character.

I interpret the scene in Methods where Voldemort kills Harry's parents as Voldemort deliberately provoking Harry's mother to prevent her from carrying out such a sacrifice. If that's the case, he wouldn't have gone out of his way to avoid it if it weren't a possibility.

Presumably Flamel learned the magic personally from other learned wizards of his time, or devised it himself, the way anyone learns magic powerful enough to invoke the Interdict. The decline of wizardry may have started before his birth, but that doesn't mean that there wasn't more powerful magic known in his day than in the present. That's why it's a decline, not a sudden cataclysm.

And he probably never actively intervened against Grindelwald or Voldemort because it would have been dangerous and you don't get to be hundreds of years old without a healthy regard for your own safety. Just because he knows some formidable magic that present day wizards don't doesn't mean modern wizards couldn't hex him dead.

edited 20th Mar '13 6:23:05 PM by Desertopa

If EY said that he saw no reason that going down without a fight would be superior to dying fighting, perhaps that means the protection still triggered in Methods?

There are plenty of restrictions you could put on Flamel that would prevent him from fighting but not from hexing up the corridor. Perhaps he tires easily? Or maybe he's just crap at combat?

You could be right, but I seriously doubt it. He is a man who turned immortality into something tangible. Something you can consume.

That speaks of great power in magic, and I don't think I have ever read any story in literature where folks who had that great power in magic were unutterably garbage at using it in combat, or at least not for long.

They may be poor at first but after training, whoosh. Flamel has been around for centuries, therefore he has no excuse.

Most likely, Flamel has no special immunity to direct violence, and is fond of breathing. Or just really cannot handle killing. Lots of people - even people who are not very nice, simply have a strong aversion to violence. We can exclude the various scenarios where using the stone renders you incapable of battle for the simple reason that if this was the case, the defenses around the stone would be as flimsy as Dumbledore could make them and not be obvious about it.