Reaction to alien encounter?

Not very much at all. After all, groundbreaking discoveries are made quite regularly. It's just that until one can find a practical application for them, then get them to the point of being suitable for mass commercial marketing, it doesn't affect us much.

The physicist who discovers FTL and the engineer who makes a working prototype will probably be the most famous and well known humans from now until our species goes extinct.

FTL is one of those game-changers. Not to us on the ground, not right away, but it fundamentally alters the rules of space travel, permitting wide-scale, rapid colonization and, more importantly, interstellar government and consequent warfare.

Like time travel, these facts provide strong, if indirect, evidence against it being possible, because what are the odds that we're the first civilization in our galaxy (or even universe) to discover it, if and when that happens?

There could be billions of sapient, spacefaring races out there, all confined to their home solar system and a few neighboring systems simply due to the speed of light. We might never meet them or hear from them. But with FTL, nothing inherently stops one of those races from colonizing on almost any desired scale.

You're then left with an application of the Fermi Paradox to explain why we haven't seen them, or any evidence of them:

• We just happen, through sheer unlikely chance, to be the first civilization to ever get as far as we have.
• There are very few sapient, spacefaring species in the galaxy. This seems unlikely by simple statistics, but could explain why none of them have reached us, nor left evidence of their passing.
• Most such species never discover FTL.
  • They die off due to some Great Filter before reaching the necessary level of technology.
  • Another species that has discovered FTL kills them off before they can get there.
• FTL is in and of itself a filter — attempting to use it creates a reality paradox that erases itself or blows you up.
• There is a galactic empire out there that dominates the stars and has set rules for contact with primitives like us, making sure we don't catch even the slightest whiff that aliens exist until we're ready to move outward ourselves.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 20th 2018 at 3:27:01 PM

The last point is comforting in a way, because it hints to some sort of benevolent intergalactic society that is actually concerned with the development and protection of less-developed civilizations. Though it does sort of paint the picture of us being some fascinating animal in the middle of a large nature preserve.

The last one would also mean that if any of those alien sightings or abductions are real which mean they're either researchers covertly monitoring us (which given alot of alleged abductions involve medical procedures is a distinct possibility) or are the interstellar equivalent to poachers.

It's not completely impossible, just very unlikely that we've never caught even the slightest glimpse of the Space Police who would be attempting to stop such renegades, nor have they left any incontrovertible evidence of their existence. If the galactic empire is that powerful, however, we've already lost any contest we could hope to have with them, and we can only pray that they don't exterminate us out of hand.

There is another possibility: that we live in an ancestor simulation or equivalent, wherein the rules of reality are established by programmers rather than by chance. (Think The Matrix, only in real life and not "glitchy".) This is an inherently unfalsifiable premise, though, so it's not really worth considering.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 20th 2018 at 3:16:22 PM

Corvidae (referring to my claim that microbial life on Mars would represent significant change for us on Earth): "Are you sure? I'd think it was cool and interesting, but it wouldn't really affect my day-to-day life all that much."

Having a second ecosphere to compare against has the potential to utterly transform our understanding of the underlying principles of biology, with unknowable implications for medicine, longevity, and genetic engineering, among many other things. The similarities and differences in evolutionary pathways would have tremendous implications for the rise of complex life on Earth, and the chances of it happening elsewhere (such as nearby star systems). Finally, there are the cultural and philosophical implications for our uniqueness and place in the universe.

It would be second only to Darwin in historical significance.

The incontrovertible discovery of life on Mars would have fantastic scientific consequences, but likely no near-term significance for most people on Earth. It's unlikely that we'd discover new medicines or anything like that from some microbes buried under miles of polar ice.

That said, there are some potential aspects to such discoveries that could completely revolutionize our understanding of biogenesis. For example, if Martian microbes have the same DNA structures as Earth life, it's a strong piece of evidence in favor of panspermia. If they don't, it's evidence in favor of abiogenesis.

Settling this debate would have profound implications for the Fermi paradox and would probably result in a significant transfer of money between scientists in the form of wagers, but I don't think it would transform society. Discovering actual breathing, talking aliens, on the other hand, would be a singularity for Earth culture.

Edited by Fighteer on Oct 1st 2018 at 9:57:46 AM

Oh, I didn't mean to downplay the scientific importance. It would obviously be a pretty significant discovery, and I'm sure we'd see some interesting philosophical discussion as well (heck, I might start some); It's more the cultural impact I'm skeptical towards.

Like, I could see some creationists throwing a tantrum or other things along those lines, but the part about how it would "shatter our perception of our own place in the universe" makes it sound a lot more dramatic than that. What kind of reaction would you expect most people to have?

Well, I just tried to answer that: it depends on whether we discover some microbes buried in ice or sapient spacefarers that we can have meaningful conversations with (or get blown up by).

Or we start digging in Mars and find mammal-like fossils.

That sure will be fun.

That seems staggeringly unlikely, but I suppose it could happen.

"and would probably result in a significant transfer of money between scientists in the form of wagers,"

This is so mundane for such a fantastic event it wraps back around to being hilarious.

And yet you just know it would happen. Like, I can almost guarantee there were at least a couple interns betting on whether the LHC would actually cause a black hole when operated.

If this video from PBS Space Time (a YouTube science education channel) is any indication, scientists are not averse to wagering on the answers to major questions. John Preskill and Stephen Hawking once made a bet over the black hole information paradox, with the winner receiving an encyclopedia of their choice. (Preskill won, FYI.)

Edited by Fighteer on Oct 1st 2018 at 2:10:21 PM

Sorry for dropping the conversation, real life intervened.

"It's unlikely that we'd discover new medicines or anything like that from some microbes buried under miles of polar ice."

Why? How could you possibly forecast what we could or could not develop from an entirely new form of life? Although you also mentioned "near term", so I guess that depends on what time frame you want to put on it. I would give it 20 years before practical technological spin-offs began to directly impact the public, but the degree of impact and change could potentially be enormous. Akin to the degree of change that the discovery of DNA itself had.

And the cultural effects? Think about the cultural effect (just the cultural effects) that the theory of Evolution had on popular culture. Start with "Social Darwinism" and all the variations of "Survival of the Fittest" as a political meme. Then the idea of gradual imcremental progress over long periods of time (this was not a popular concept as late as the Victorian era) including all the various forms of Socialism (yes, I am claiming that psychologically, socialism owes a great debt to the popular idea of evolution). Politics happens to be my thing, so I am able to think up several specific examples, but I understand that the effects were just as powerful on art, literature, music, and other forms of creative expression. IMHO, discovery of life on Mars would have similar effects, second only to the idea of Evolution itself.

Holy God, think of the effect it would have on religion. If life on Mars is part of God's plan, then we can't just sit here and ignore it. We will have to do something, whether that something is preserve it, or exploit it, or protect it or destroy it—the debate that would ensure would surely have it's effect on global culture (not to mention economics—"doing something" will cost money, and that will intensify the debate).

Do not underestimate the power of ideas, esp. in the age of the internet.

Edited by DeMarquis on Oct 1st 2018 at 3:43:02 PM

I don't underestimate the power of people to ignore ideas that are inconvenient or too complicated.

But perhaps you are under-estimating the enthusiasm of opinion leaders who see an opportunity to exploit. The public doesnt need to know the details to respond to "OMG, alien life!"

Edited by DeMarquis on Oct 1st 2018 at 4:50:43 AM

By "immediate" or "short-term" effects I'm gonna be assuming the colloquial length of a generation, or about 20 years. Even if we did find life on Mars, if it isn't sapient, or at the very least developed beyond the single cell stage, it won't do much. There might be a bit of excited talk for a while, perhaps a new spate of SF horror movies where astronauts go to Mars and get infected by some horrifying long-dormant Martian virus, but it's not like we'll suddenly be getting manned missions to the Moon and Mars.

Indeed, the discovery of microbial life on Mars might well set back any manned mission, as the risk of Earth life contaminating Mars life would be quite high.

Latest news: Microbial life discovered beneath the ice of Europa!

Religion A: "Called it."

Religion B: "Can we convert them? Oh wait, 'microbial'... Never mind."

Religion C: "Fake news!"

Maybe I'm just biased from growing up in a place where no one ever gets passionate about anything except the occasional bigotry, but still...

Haven't the philosophical consequences of this discovery kind of already been dealt with, if you get what I'm saying? It's not a new idea. People have already made up their minds and know how they'll react. Actual evidence rarely has as much impact as it should, in my experience.

Yeah, at the very least, the Catholic Church's stance is "we don't know, but we wouldn't be surprised". I'm of the same mindset. All that universe out there, and God settles for making just one planet with life? Seems like such a waste.

"Indeed, the discovery of microbial life on Mars might well set back any manned mission, as the risk of Earth life contaminating Mars life would be quite high."

Possibly, but the total resources going into Mars exploration, even if only by automated probes, will explode. Consider: there is no way to know what the discovery of Martian life might teach us, or allow us to develop. No nation with a space program can afford to be left behind in that space race. At the very least, the US, Europe, Russia, China and possibly India will do whatever it takes to ensure that no one monopolizes whatever new discoveries Martian life will make possible. It might be nothing, but it could be anything, and that is not something anyone will want to leave to chance. A war is not an impossibility, depending upon just how radical an advance to the science of biology this could lead to (how about that for global effects). At the very least, it will make the race to the Moon look like a stroll in the park.

"Haven't the philosophical consequences of this discovery kind of already been dealt with, if you get what I'm saying? It's not a new idea. People have already made up their minds and know how they'll react. Actual evidence rarely has as much impact as it should, in my experience."

Yes, I think you are ignoring history. Specifically, I think you are mistaking recent trends for long term patterns. If my experience is anything to go by, it's going to be more like:

Religion A: "We must go to Mars to fulfill God's plan for life in the universe!"

Religion B: "Er, no, we must go to Mars to fulfill God's plan for life in the universe!"

(Multiply about a dozen times)

Y'all are underestimating the human need to control the environment, and the equally powerful need to prevent the neighbors from controlling the environment. Nationalism and xenophobia will take it from there (by which I don't mean primarily fear of Mars life, although that might play a role. I mean fear of other humans getting the drop on us).

And I don't think anyone really knows how they would react when the speculative suddenly, without warning, becomes real. It's one thing to watch a sci-fi movie, it's totally another to see the same thing, except on the news. I'm not saying people will react rationally, but they will act. Don't be surprised if the discovery of single cell organisims on Mars promotes greater funding for "Star Wars" style orbital defenses (which will then end up being pointed at other humans).

Edited by DeMarquis on Oct 1st 2018 at 6:52:41 AM

I'm reminded of how a newspaper published a series of fake stories about discovering life on the moon a hundred or so years ago. Almost immediately some church leaders began asking if they could communicate with the moon aliens to share the Bible.

Heh. Anyone remember a certain radio program from the 1930's?