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Hurricane season 2017 (Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria, Ophelia)

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SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#201: Sep 14th 2017 at 2:59:12 AM

For the record, there is a committee of the WMO that decides on names. Any WMO member state can ask for removal if a storm causes sufficient damage or death toll and if a consensus exists it will be removed. That committee meets between the seasons and takes decisions on the previous season's names then. Names can also be retired for other reasons - "Adolph", "Israel" and "Isis" were retired because they were controversial in the NE Pacific. "Patricia" was retired because it was so strong; presumably to avoid Tempting Fate. "Tip" however is still used in the Pacific, as is "Talim".

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
danime91 Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#202: Sep 14th 2017 at 7:45:07 AM

On the other hand, if names really don't matter, should it be important at all if they decide to not reuse a name? It's literally just deleting a name from a list of possible names. It's not like it requires much time, effort, or resources, and considering the random nature of assigning names to storms, the likelihood that any one particular name would come up again is pretty low anyway.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#203: Sep 14th 2017 at 7:46:36 AM

Er, hurricane names are rotated every six years. So several storms can end up having the same name.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Memers Since: Aug, 2013
#204: Sep 14th 2017 at 8:31:32 AM

It's part of the whole Seven-Year Rule thing. When something is important enough to break that then they remove the name.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#205: Sep 14th 2017 at 2:11:46 PM

A hurricane Max has just got that designation off Mexico. And will probably lose it soon again as it's already landfallig. Another storm Norma is moving north.

Jose is down to tropical storm strength but is expected to stabilize. Two other systems south of Cape Verde may become tropical storms in the next days.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#206: Sep 14th 2017 at 4:14:11 PM

One of the models for Jose has it heading straight for me, but plenty of models have it going elsewhere.

I mean, I lived through Juan, so a TS direct hit doesn't sound too bad. Plus, living on a mountain helps.tongue

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#207: Sep 14th 2017 at 11:34:08 PM

As flooded Houston neighborhoods dry out, residents wonder: Are they worth the risk?. My personal sense is that they aren't but then resettling people is difficult.

Texas officials: Hurricane Harvey death toll at 82, ‘mass casualties have absolutely not happened’.

Not exclusively about Hurricanes, but an interesting piece on how DRAAAMATIC their media coverage was. The days where "preventing panic" in response to impending disasters was a consideration in disaster preparedness are apparently over.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#208: Sep 15th 2017 at 6:24:02 AM

It depends on where you're talking about. All the coverage I saw from actually in the path of the storm was pretty even-keeled. They didn't downplay things at all, but they weren't screaming about "BIGGEST STORM IN HISTORY OMG!" either. All of the papers that article quotes were hundreds of miles from the impact zone, for example.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#209: Sep 17th 2017 at 1:11:21 AM

I was mostly following the non-Floridian coverage, so.

Two more tropical storms have formed: Lee and Maria. Now Lee is forecast to decay again due to wind shear just like Jose, but Maria is forecast to not only develop into a hurricane and possibly a major one, but to follow a similar track to Irma. So many of the islands that were ravaged by Irma could be devastated all over again.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#210: Sep 17th 2017 at 2:59:49 AM

Is there even anything left where the survivors can take cover?

Euodiachloris Since: Oct, 2010
#211: Sep 17th 2017 at 3:58:15 AM

[up]The answer to that is a resounding "no". The bulk of the islands' populations probably need evacuation until the end of hurricane season.

But, that ain't happening because reasons. -_-

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#212: Sep 17th 2017 at 2:52:28 PM

Here we go.

Maria is now a hurricane and there is a good chance it will become a big one in the next few days. It seems that it will run a little more south than forecast, though.

Apparently on the US Virgin Islands there is still no communication, so the "watch out" is being passed on orally.

edited 17th Sep '17 2:55:05 PM by SeptimusHeap

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#213: Sep 17th 2017 at 11:32:11 PM

Maria is more likely to hit Puerto Rico according to the newer forecasts. The other islands should be happy, one worst case hurricane possible (Harvey) is enough.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#214: Sep 18th 2017 at 11:28:15 AM

Looks like Maria is up to a Category 3, and looking at the NOAA data it's headed straight for Puerto Rico.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#215: Sep 18th 2017 at 1:39:09 PM

I did just read on Wikipedia (and backed by a source) that if Irma had run directly for Florida after passing the Turks and Caicos Islands, it may have become the strongest (by windspeed) hurricane in the North Atlantic Ocean ever, with windspeeds of up to 200 miles per hour. Possibly keeping such windspeeds until landfall considering that a) Irma only slowly responded to the land interaction with Cuba and b) Florida's flat and lake-y/swamp-y terrain is much less effective at weakening an incoming hurricane than Cuba.

FYI, 200 miles per hour is a high end tornado windspeed, about 4-5 on that newfangled "Enhanced Fujita scale" or about enough to flatten strong buildings. Florida dodged a big bullet, there.

eta: Maria is now up to Cat 4. And it has a tiny eye ("pinhole eye") indicating that it is strengthening rapidly.

edited 18th Sep '17 1:53:40 PM by SeptimusHeap

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Raddishes Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
#216: Sep 18th 2017 at 5:09:19 PM

Maria is Cat 5 now. Do hurricanes gain strength that fast or is it rare? I honestly thought it was impossible for hurricanes to rapidly gain power that fast under a day until now...

edited 18th Sep '17 5:13:53 PM by Raddishes

tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#217: Sep 18th 2017 at 5:26:17 PM

Water is hot in the lower North Atlantic.

Alongside low to no wind shear.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#218: Sep 18th 2017 at 5:27:37 PM

[up][up]Storms can and do intensify pretty quickly if they hit the right spot of deep warm water.

Still, it's pretty unusual to have two Category 5 storms happening back to back in the Atlantic.

On a different subject, it seems like Hurricane Jose is going to be doing another loop in the sea, possibly back towards land this time. People in the Northeast should probably keep an eye out.

edited 18th Sep '17 5:27:46 PM by Mio

Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#219: Sep 18th 2017 at 5:28:45 PM

[up][up][up] Not sure on the averages, but Maria is definitely strengthening at an alarming speed. Looking at the NOAA public advisories, it became a Category 5 storm just 2 hours and 45 minutes after becoming a Category 4 storm.

Or at least the official weather advisories were issued 2 hours and 45 minutes apart, but I doubt the actual time was much longer then that and may of been even shorter.

edited 18th Sep '17 5:29:59 PM by Falrinn

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#220: Sep 18th 2017 at 6:32:54 PM

Yeah, getting that strong that fast is definitely unusual.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#221: Sep 18th 2017 at 7:38:58 PM

MARIA MAKES LANDFALL ON DOMINICA

SUMMARY OF 935 PM AST...0135 UTC...INFORMATION
—————————————————————————-
LOCATION...15.3N 61.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM SE OF DOMINICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES

Dominica's Prime Minister's posted on Facebook his roof blew off.

edited 18th Sep '17 7:42:34 PM by tclittle

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#222: Sep 18th 2017 at 7:55:53 PM

[up][up]Global Warming: The Reckoning

Bur from Flyover Country (Living Relic) Relationship Status: Having tea with Cthulhu
#223: Sep 18th 2017 at 8:03:18 PM

[up]x3 Global Warming 2: Carbon Bugaloo

Apparently the main hospital's roof is gone too, now.

edited 18th Sep '17 8:03:26 PM by Bur

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#224: Sep 18th 2017 at 10:46:43 PM

And Maria was a tropical storm just two days ago? I think this sort of thing is called explosive deepening.

edited 18th Sep '17 10:47:11 PM by SeptimusHeap

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#225: Sep 19th 2017 at 12:55:48 AM

Anyhow, it looks like the interaction with Dominica has put it back to Cat 4 but the island has taken a heavy hit from its first ever Cat 5 hit. According to their prime minister - who had to be evacuated themselves - there is widespread destruction, with roofs being blown off and the like.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

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