Restoration of any of the monarchies you mentioned is unlikely - Russia's royal family was thoroughly killed off, France's last kingdom was centuries ago. Portugal's Duke of Braganza is pro-monarchy but Portugal generally isn't interested in restoration.
The UK's monarchy is highly popular; getting the UK to ditch the monarchy would require Charles III being a massive cockbag (not implausible), William being just as big a dick as Charles (not plausible), a sea change in Britain against something that's at worst harmless and at best beneficial (HM Elizabeth II is, aside from her official duty of looking pretty, a key private advisor in any British government regardless of which side), and a willingness to lose the tourist income.
Russia democratizing...mmm, that's an interesting one! First off, Putin is going to have to make like a frog and croak - as long as he lives, Russia is his. Second, there'll have to be a commitment by the Russian elite to democratization, third, they'll have to avoid bungling it like Yeltsin did, and fourth, the Russian people will have to accept and internalize the value of democracy sufficiently that the next boss can't scare them with another enemy and unite them. (Not easy. Russia's national identity has been laced with paranoia and xenophobia for centuries.)
Iran democratizing again is happening - Iran is already fairly democratic and growing more so. The Revolutionary Guards need to be cut back or preferably abolished, and the Guardian Council would need to lose its legitimacy (which requires the Guard to lose its power, or else as long as the Guard considers the Council legitimate, they can turn loose their militia to terrorize reformists into compliance).
The EU was, up until recent shock waves, gradually becoming more united with more and more treaties. Establishing more institutions and ceding more sovereignty led to a gradually stronger union. However, if the EU wants to avoid collapse, they need to grasp the challenge of having an ordoliberal leadership in the Union that's at odds with growing leftist and far-right movements in the EU periphery. They need to address the problems of their member states and regain their credibility if they want to strengthen the integration of Europe.
And finally, the Day of the Jackboot in the US. Could happen, but trends are moving away from it. You won't get it by a landslide election in which some dude with a bad mustache suddenly gains power through weird coalition politics and then uses an army of brown-shirted thugs to suppress opposition; instead, you'll get it through a slow erosion of voting rights for minorities and the poor, increased usage of gerrymandering to force the election of cooperative Congressmen, and an increased use of the criminal justice system to suppress minorities (felons in most states can't vote, and it's ridiculously easy to take an 18-year-old black kid and force him to plead guilty to felony marijuana possession). The more that voting rights are restricted, the more voting power the far right of the Republican Party gets, and the more likely that a Republican Party in control of Washington will be able to erode people's rights further...
I wrote this a few months ago for a topic on another forum dealing with improbable future events. To emphasize, I don't think this is going to happen by any means — however, I do see it as within the bounds of possibility. I'd be curious as to other 'improbable yet possible' future scenarios other tropers might have — and remember, if they do come true, you get full bragging rights!
India Breaks Up
Over the next few years, India goes into a period of prolonged stagnation. Entrenched corruption and inefficiency means that necessary economic reforms are not made, or if they are, that they fail to have any effect. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, finding taking on the entrenched elites in the BJP and their clientelist bases of support too difficult, instead turns towards an emphasis on Hindu nationalist issues, which gives him enough popularity to function but leads to greater religious tensions in the country. At the same time, the Congress party leadership proves massively ineffective, and the party slides into irrelevance over a number of years after failing to win a major state election. In its place, regional parties become the main oppositional force to the BJP. In November 2015, the Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal combine to form the government in Bihar. In 2016, the Communist Party (now a regional party in all but name) takes control in Kerala and the Trinamool Congress maintains its hold on West Bengal. The BJP gets a few wins in 2017 in Gujarat and Punjab (although the latter is highly dependent on its regional allies), but India's largest state and the big prize, Uttar Pradesh, is fought over by the BSP, the SP, and the Aam Admi party (which is expanding from its base in Delhi). In a major embarrassment seen as a referendum on Modi's rule, the BJP only obtains about 15% of the seats in this district (and Congress 2% of the seats).
By now, the Upper House of India is firmly controlled by the "Third Front" of non-aligned parties, and Modi's legislative agenda is stalled, with defections from his party bringing him perilously close to losing a vote of no confidence. Still, he manages to hold on until 2019, when he once again gets the party nomination from the BJP, largely because no other plausible candidates exist in the party. Communalism becomes a major theme of the 2019 election, with numerous Hindu-Muslim riots breaking out throughout the country. Violence returns to Kashmir. Behind the scenes, the BJP relies on vote banks to gain support as well. The Aam Admi party takes over Congress's role as the major opposition party in the country, campaigning on a populist message that economists widely consider unsustainable. In the end, the BJP maintains a narrow seat advantage in the parliament, but in an election where 16 parties obtain over 10 seats each in a 543-seat body, Modi's party is forced to rule in a weak governing coalition with regional partners.
The second Modi term is even worse than the first. Due to the lack of economic reforms and the returned Hindu-Muslim conflict (including riots in which over 1000 people die in Bombay in 2020), Modi becomes persona non grata once more to the individual community, which prefers to bypass the government whenever possible and deal with individual businesses or NG Os. Meanwhile, a lack of progress against corruption and worries about the country's situation makes the security situation continue to deteriorate. Unrest from the collapsing government in Myanmar and the ensuing civil war spills over into India's North-East, leading regions such as Nagaland and Mizoram to renew their independence struggles (this time with secret support from China). Economic decline leads to a lack of funding for the country's poorest regions, causing an increase in Naxalite violence there. Within two years, Modi's political partners withdraw from the government, causing new elections to be held in 2021 which the Aam Admi party wins in a landslide as the head of a broad party coalition.
The new government immediately moves to install populist measures the likes of which India has not seen since the 1980s. The economy promptly tanks, with India having its GDP shrink by 1.5% in 2021 and 3% in 2022. Foreign investment has by now almost entirely dried up, with Indonesia, Ghana, and Vietnam all seeming like better places for developing country investment than India. By 2023, India comes close to running the risk of defaulting on its debts. Economic elites in Bangalore and Chennai, worried about sinking once more into international oblivion, hatch a desperate plan — to buy their independence from India in exchange for a payment of $1 trillion, payable over a 15-year period. To gain popular support for this move, they propose the foundation of a new 'Dravidian' state, which will consist of the southern regions of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh, where both the BJP and the Aam Admi party have had a minimal presence in the past decade. This ends up mobilizing much of the population of the region. The proposal causes shock throughout the majority Indian population, but at the same time, the government has to deal with international economic pressures and the cost of security measures. In what is known as the "great betrayal", Prime Minister Arvin Kejriwal accepts.
Immediately, the government falls, and new elections in the fall of 2023 bring the BJP back to power in a landslide, on a vow of regaining the south by force. Dravidian political elites, ranging from Keralan Communists to Bangalorian millionaires, use the crisis to call for martial law, declare a "authoritarian developmental state" along the East Asian tiger model, and closely ally with China, which is more than happy to reciprocate for both geopolitical and economic reasons. As the Indian army advances into Dravidia, China strikes from Tibet, seizing Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. The northeastern states declare themselves independent, as does West Bengal. For a few weeks, the prospect of nuclear war between India and China becomes a real possibility, until last-minute international talks cause all sides to step back from the brink. As a result, China gives back all its seized territory and also agrees to a $200 billion payment to India, in exchange for India recognizing the independence of any of its states that choose it in a referendum, which the pro-independence side in all the states in question proceed to win (albeit very closely in West Bengal). Kashmir also demands a referendum at this time, which it wins as well.
By 2025, India's territory is restricted to the "cow belt" in the north and center of the country. Regional elites in Gujarat and Maharashtra begin to advocate for their own independence movements, with the Shiv Sena definitively breaking with the BJP over the question. Pakistan, once again under a period of military rule, looks on with concern, worried that the trend could extend to its own breakup. China extends its influence into the newly independent states, giving it a strong presence in the Bay of Bengal. And political analysts worldwide look on in disbelief, wondering how a development no one was considering ten years ago could possibly have come to pass.
edited 25th Aug '15 7:08:18 AM by BokhuraBurnes
First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win.It is interesting to note in the case of Russia a massive case of Values Dissonance.
Certainly its culture, beliefs and paranoia makes difficult to see it democratize itself within a century.
Iran would require a hard secularization to achieve a western-like democracy status, wich is highly improbable.
India is not very likely to balkanize, but its massive issues with demographic differences may erode its already winning race over China for asian domination.
Haw Haw Haw

I was wondering, how probable it is -Or what should happen in order to make probable that-
- Bourbons retake the throne of France, or Bonapartists
- Braganças do the same in Portugal
- A republic is established in the United Kingdom (United Republic?)
- Russia turns back to monarchy
- Iran turns back to democracy (or undergoes one, to begin with)
- Russia becomes more democratic.
- The USA devolves into an authoritarian state
- The European Union gets actually united.
Haw Haw Haw