Official China Discussion Thread

When a big point of a defense treaty is to counter the threat of a certain nation, you don't invite said nation into the defense treaty. At least not without strong evidence that they are asking to join in good faith. Russia...didn't manage that.

It's pretty much inviting the fox into the henhouse. And some of the chickens still remember the years the fox kept trying to eat them.

The same arguments were made in Paris and London against the measures of rapprochement with Germany that eventually formed the backbone of the EU.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Oct 11th 2018 at 9:38:38 AM

Russia never went through the same "De-Nazification" process. Probably because the USSR didn't get defeated in a war but collapsed upon itself.

And that's still not the same thing as inviting the fox into the henhouse — the whole point of the henhouse is to keep the fox from eating the chickens.

Edited by M84 on Oct 11th 2018 at 9:45:28 PM

It kind of is, because Germany in the 1950s was not nearly as "De-nazified" as you seem to think. The CIA was still stuffing ballot boxes to ensure fascists (and communists) were kept out of power (and possibly assassinating people here and there) when the ECSC was founded.

In many ways one could argue efforts to economically integrate Germany with the rest of Western Europe along with large scale US investment probably had far more to do with the subsequent German success story in shaking off its past than the US's more explicitly targeted denazification policies.

Edited by CaptainCapsase on Oct 11th 2018 at 10:07:04 AM

At least it was underway at the time and done as part of a concentrated systemic effort to make sure Germany wasn't going to start a Fourth Reich. Effort that included the economic integration with the rest of Europe.

And that still isn't the same thing as allowing a nation into the very defense treaty that was originally crafted to counter them. A treaty that includes a number of nations who still remember the years said nation oppressed them.

Edited by M84 on Oct 11th 2018 at 10:10:28 PM

While this discussion is legitimately interesting I don't think it's on-topic anymore. This would probably be better for the Official Russian thread (if we have one) or the General politics thread.

Bottom line: while I wouldn't be too shocked if it did eventually happen, China joining the TPP would be a twisted irony. The whole point of the TPP was to prevent China from taking too big a piece of the pie.

If mainland China does somehow join the TPP, that would also completely fuck over Taiwan.

Edited by M84 on Oct 11th 2018 at 10:14:19 PM

Re: Chinese excuses for concentration camps.

My glances at various 50 Cent posts on news sites give me the impression that the Chinese government is justifying to its people the Xinjiang camps with as many examples of "Western hypocrisy" as possible. They bring up the World War II incarceration of Japanese-Americans and the current southern border crisis when responding to American commenters, while highlighting to European ones the French camps at Calais and the British usage of military bases in Cyprus.

Talking with the Head of History (and a Sinologist) at my college, it's believed that it's impossible for the PRC's fears for "Uyghurs start new civil war, will attempt to destroy government, fully armed terrorist militias sweeping out of Xinjiang to destroy China" will occur, because the Uyghurs really aren't a large part of the population at all. There's so few of them compared to the Han.

Of course, it won't stop Xi and co anyway.

On a different note, the more similarities I see with Imperial Japan with the PRC, the more any shreds of respect disappear, and the more favorable towards Taiwan I become.

Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Oct 12th 2018 at 2:21:02 AM

Taiwan's politics and culture are their own mess of troubles. Journalism is sensationalist claptrap here on par with the UK's, politics on just about every level has its share of incompetence and corruption, voting is a mess, Taiwan seems to have trouble getting leaders who are not some combination of incompetent or corrupt...and I'd still gladly take this over living in Beijing any day of the week.

Give me messy democracy over petty autocrats any time.

Edited by M84 on Oct 12th 2018 at 4:55:31 PM

Don't forget the (in)famous Taiwanese parliament fights as well.

Edited by Quag15 on Oct 12th 2018 at 9:13:41 AM

At least they've now got a arguably reasonably component (as in "her political opponents give her shit for buying coffee and "provoking the mainland" as if she's Obama and they're Republicans") female president despite being even younger as a democracy than than the US.

The US democratic system has existed, albeit in various primitive forms, since the 1780's. Taiwan only liberalized from a military dictatorship during the 1990s.

Well, that's not the fairest comparison, American democracy predates feminism while the same is not true of Taiwan. So it's not that much of a surprise that they have a female leader while we have not.

Edited by Fourthspartan56 on Oct 12th 2018 at 4:29:55 AM

There's some growing frustration with her seeming inability to fulfill more campaign promises and provoking mainland China via moves like making a phone call to Trump congratulating him on his win in 2016. Her approval ratings have consistently been pretty low. She was at 31.2% last month, the second lowest she's had so far in her tenure. And it's not looking to improve any time soon.

I'm not the biggest fan of her either, but better her than the KMT. Those asshats would sell out Taiwan to Beijing on a platter.

Edited by M84 on Oct 12th 2018 at 4:31:07 PM

I cannot stop mocking the sheer irony of it all that the formerly anti-communist bulwark is now attempting to fuse itself with Beijing.

Then again, it's Chinese nationalism that drove the KMT above all things...

Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Oct 12th 2018 at 2:29:16 AM

Considering modern China looks far closer to Chiang’s vision of China than Mao’s, it’s not exactly surprising that the KMT has warmed to Beijing.

Forgeting where it was stated here in the site's forums but IIRC, didn't someone say that even if the KMT won in 1949, Chiang ruling China as its dictator wouldn't have lasted upon his death?

That’s a rather optimistic view of history which in my opinion fails to fully consider the differences between ruling Taiwan and all of China. True, had the KMT won there would have been considerably less damage from Mao’s delusional policies, but China would still probably lag behind South Korea and Japan in developing due to the sheer size of the country. China’s geopolitical heft also makes it less dependent on US aid, and more interested in being nonaligned/playing both sides of the Cold War like India.

It’s probably somewhat more likely that a KMT ruled China would liberalize it’s political system at some point, but the end result might be more along the lines of Singapore than Taiwan in terms of governance.

Isn't being "seemingly unable to fulfill campaign promises" a virtual staple of any elected official though? Both Obama and Trump have encountered that dilemma with their campaign promises of affordable healthcare and a border wall with Mexico.

While Tsai's approval ratings are admittedly abysmal, it's worth noting that both of Obama's terms saw him receiving an average rating of 40%, which likely was bolstered by the much larger population of Democratic supporters in the US when contrasted with the smaller voter base that the DPP has to work with. Obama's ratings didn't break the 50% range on average until after he left office and was replaced by You-Know-Who; this is only one example of a "nostalgia boost" that most former US Presidents enjoy, especially Nixon in recent years. I strongly suspect a similar phenomenon may occur in Taiwan should the ROC continue to exist past Tsai's government.

Like Obama, I've that the absolute biggest threats to Tsai's popularity is simply how disturbingly ill-informed, poorly educated, or downright deliberately ignorant the majority of Taiwan's electorate can be. Foreign Policy ran an excellent article (the "Taiwan Can Win a War with China" one) describing the phenomenon a few weeks ago.

For example, a poll revealed that only about 40% of Taiwanese trust the ROC military with their defense. When asked why, many pointed to how Tsai's term has seen many countries abandon the ROC in favor of the PRC. Therefore, they argued, the international community will be more than pleased to see Taiwan annexed into the PRC. Nevermind the fact that many of the countries that have recognized China's claim to Taiwan have little to no power on the global stage and have little practical reason to continue supporting the ROC when the threat of having Chinese tourists stop coming to visit is dangled in front of them.

Furthermore, the poll uncovered the disturbing fact that a majority of Taiwanese seem to equivocate diplomatic recognition with military strength and capability. The reality couldn't be further from the truth - Taiwan actually boasts one of the most powerful militaries in East Asia, what with the ROC being able to develop its own advanced weapons systems like the Sky Sword, Sky Arrow, and Sky Bow series of air defense systems. If the ROC military was really as weak as the Philippines', then we would have seen an overt armed clash in the Taiwan Strait by now.

Another example comes in the form of how Taiwanese reacted to the Chinese military's air incursions over Taiwanese airspace. Some argued that Tsai was causing these raids to occur by "provoking the mainland" through her foreign policy initiatives, while others actually stated that she was being "too provocative" towards the mainland by giving the Air Force free rein to scramble to intercept Chinese aircraft as they wished.

Here's an excellent article covering the furious debates regarding Tsai's approval ratings.

Link does not work.

Can't link it. Just search for "false narratives" and you'll find it.

Edited by TerminusEst on Oct 13th 2018 at 10:47:51 AM

Sadly it seems like things haven't gotten much better for her public image since that article was published a year ago.

The problem is that it's not just international media that paints the bad image. They get a lot of their material from Taiwan's own press. And like I said, Taiwan's journalism is on par with the UK's in terms of objectivity and quality.

Edited by M84 on Oct 14th 2018 at 2:02:44 AM

Taiwanese media is indeed problematic. I have a perfect example of what happened to uninformed people who get exposed to the entire mess here (i.e. my little brother).

TBH, disturbingly ill-informed, poorly educated, or downright deliberately ignorant people has always been the source of a lot of problems that I don't think we can address anytime soon unfortunately.

The Canton Trade Fair started and I’m in Guangzhou ‘til Thursday to accompany my old man to look for things that can be easily sold in Manila.

Edited by Ominae on Oct 16th 2018 at 5:33:26 AM

The funny thing is despite the issues with Taiwan's media, for international or political news I'd still trust it more than most mainland papers or HK tabloids. I'll take some pro-Western bias over blatant apologism for Beijing and whataboutism any day.

In general however it feels like the Chinese-speaking world is unfortunately lacking in reliable journalism.