Japanese government begins discussion on contingency plans in event of Mount Fuji eruption
Mount Fuji, Japan’s highest peak at 3,776 meters and lying about 100 kilometers from central Tokyo, is an active volcano with a history of a number of major eruptions.
The Central Disaster Management Council will assess the speed and scope in which volcanic ash will fall, and its influence on transportation infrastructure and electricity and water supplies, in the case of an eruption.
The 14-member working group at the council, led by Toshitsugu Fujii, a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, aims to draw up a proposal within a year that will likely be reflected in local municipalities’ disaster management plans.
The group will assume numerous scenarios, reflecting volume of volcanic ash, wind direction and length of eruption, using references from the previous eruption of Mount Fuji in 1707.
It will assess the accuracy of a previous estimate, made by another government panel, that there would be up to 10 centimeters of volcanic ash in Tokyo in the event of an eruption.
The working group will also discuss steps to discard and store fallen ash from the eruption.
According to historical records, Mount Fuji’s 1707 eruption lasted for 16 days, piling 4 centimeters of volcanic ash near what is now central Tokyo. The mountain has not erupted since then, with no signs of volcanic activity observed since the 1960s.
Wow. They are discussing contigency plans JUST NOW?!
They should have begun at least during the Hōei eruption, not over 310 years later.
![[up]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/smiles/arrow_up.png "[up]"){kind=icon}
Yeah, the issue I see is that apparent problems aren’t being addressed quickly enough or strongly enough. With the way things are going now, unless they begin to take drastic action, their economy simply can’t be maintained. This doesn’t necessarily imply total collapse, but definitely damage.
The “nightmare scenario” where problems outpace solutions seems to be coming to pass, basically.
Edited by archonspeaks on Sep 13th 2018 at 7:49:07 AM
They should have sent a poet.
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
... You do realize that with how many times technology in Japan has been revolutionized over the past 3 centuries, no set of contingency plans would last more than a few decades before it has to be completely thrown out in favor of new ones that capitalize on both better data and far better technologies that have made the old stuff obsolete?
Technology is of little relevance in this context. The means by which volcanic eruptions around large cities would be handled with in the 18th century are little different from those in the 21st. And even if it wasn't feasible back then, it certainly was by 2014y
Edited by SeptimusHeap on Sep 13th 2018 at 8:12:20 PM
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
That conclusion is... not self evident to me. Could you please expand on how you came to it?
I've got to agree that saying that things would be the same as the 18th century is just plain wrong. For one thing Tokyo is a much larger than it was since then. Furthermore the transportation infrastructure is very different and continuing to evolve (the Yamanote line is getting a new station before the 2020 Olympics for example) and the greater Tokyo area is one of the few places in Japan experiencing net population growth so at the very least plans would have to be periodically updated to account for population change.
It would also have to account for the fact that Tokyo has two of Japan's busiest airport, a massive sea port and forms a major hub for long distance rail, both freight and the Shinkansen passenger lines.
And this isn't even going into changes in building standards, power and water infrastructure .
Well, disaster plans are usually updated from time to time to account for such changes, usually they do not get totally re-done. The key concepts of how to handle (mainly, evacuation) would be still the same in 1707 as in 2018.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Your talking about a diffrence of population of 50,000 in the former.... and 13,000,000 today.
That plan would not even be able to be used as a shell, there is just too much diffrent, even the scale is orders of magnitude diffrent.
Either way, having some kind of plan in place would be a good move in either year. And for what it's worth, governments were carrying out disaster management operations already as far as 1669 (the year of the Great Etna Eruption), if not as far back as 79, and 1669 featured both plans for orderly evacuation of both people and goods and efforts at holding back lava flows. The main technological difference from today is that sometimes today you can tell in advance that a volcano is going to blow. The main non-technological one is that you need to take care of additional infrastructure today.
Edited by SeptimusHeap on Sep 13th 2018 at 8:08:22 PM
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
@archonspeaks: I don't necessarily agree with that assessment; the structural problems with China's economy and its poor long term demographics are absolutely beginning to drag on the country, but by all indicators a catastrophic economic collapse and long period of stagnation ala Japan following the 1991 Asian financial crisis doesn't seem likely, and the sort of total implosion the Soviet Union experienced in the same year seems even more remote.
Absent either of those things coming to pass, current projections have China's growth gradually decelerating to the norm for a lower-end developed country, putting it in first place for nominal GDP for at least a few decades. In other words, I don't think either the "Coming Collapse of China" or the "Chinese Century" scenario are particularly likely at this point.
Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 16th 2018 at 3:43:41 PM
I believe that’s a bit of an optimistic assessment. While the Soviet Union-style collapse or massive recession don’t seem likely, as you pointed out, signs are currently pointing to something a bit more severe than the economy stabilizing at a lower level. There’s no indication the solutions needed to prevent that are being pursued, and increasing internal political pressures have the potential to seriously exacerbate any economic issues.
For now, it seems like it’ll be somewhere in between “total collapse” and “re-stabilization”.
They should have sent a poet.
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
Picked up by Reuters:
Cardinal Joseph Zen – the retired but still outspoken former archbishop of Hong Kong – told Bloomberg News last month that he wrote to Francis to denounce efforts by the Vatican to reach a landmark agreement with Beijing on the appointment of bishops in China. Zen cautioned in a July letter that such a deal, which could lift a barrier to restoring diplomatic relations with Beijing, may also create a schism among the local faithful.
“Francis is too optimistic,” said Zen, 86. “The trouble is that he doesn’t know the Chinese government. He doesn’t have experience of a Communist regime.”
Zen’s comments highlight another potential concern for Francis, while he faces accusations from the Vatican’s former envoy to Washington that he ignored 2013 warnings about alleged sex abuse by U.S. Cardinal Theodore Mc Carrick. The pope has declined to comment on the claims and on Wednesday summoned top bishops to a February summit to discuss preventing clergy sex abuse.
The Wall Street Journal reported last week that a deal between China and the Vatican could come later this month. Under the agreement, both sides would have a say in appointing the church’s bishops in China, according to the article, which cited unidentified sources familiar with the situation. China Crackdown
The pope is risking another fight in the developing world, Zen said. The dispute in China – like so many in the Church’s long history – centers on who gets to appoint bishops, the pope or China’s government.
While talks have dragged on for years, Francis expressed optimism in a June interview with Reuters that ties were improving. China’s main demand is for the Vatican to formally recognize seven excommunicated Chinese bishops appointed by the government without the pope’s approval, according to the Wall Street Journal.
But reaching a settlement with the officially atheist Communist Party has provided elusive, especially as President Xi Jinping presides over the most widespread crackdown on religious freedom since it was written into the country’s constitution in 1982. Chinese authorities have jailed Catholic priests, destroyed churches and cut crosses from the tops of churches.
The efforts go beyond Christianity. Last month, a United Nations panel called on Beijing to respond to what it said were credible reports that as many as 1 million Muslims were being held in “re-education camps” in the far western region of Xinjiang. A senior Chinese official warned in April against overseas individuals or entities using religion as a tool of infiltration.
The estimated 12 million Catholics in China are currently divided between the Catholic Patriotic Association, a state-run authority in which the government names bishops, and an “underground” Church loyal to the pope.
Although Zen is retired, he has retained influence as an advocate for greater democracy in the former British colony of Hong Kong. At his home in the Salesian House of Studies, Zen repeatedly rapped his gold cardinal’s ring on the table as he gesticulated for emphasis. He argued that the Church didn’t understand Xi’s intent.“I said that, ‘I’m really worried not about you, Your Holiness, but about the people around you,’” Zen said. “I said, ‘The things your collaborators are doing’ – and I used a really bad Italian word, macchinando [plotting] – ‘will have tragic and long-lasting effects, not only for the Church in China, but for the whole Church.’”
The cardinal faulted discussions about giving the pope veto power over a bishop nominated by a party-backed nominating conference.
“The conference is fake, it has no power at all,” Zen said, adding that such a move risked creating “a schismatic Church with the blessing of the Holy Father.” ‘Fostering Confusion’
The Vatican declined to comment on Zen’s remarks, or on the talks with China. The Vatican in January rebuked Zen – without naming him – for “fostering confusion and controversy” after he suggested Francis wasn’t fully informed about Vatican officials’ strategy on China.
The debate could also have repercussions for democratically run Taiwan, which counts the Vatican as one of its 17 remaining diplomatic allies. Beijing has been wooing countries away from Taipei since the island elected a president from a pro-independence party in 2016.
Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu told Bloomberg News on Aug. 24 that the island was watching China’s efforts to boost ties with the Church. He argued that now wasn’t the time for the Vatican to switch allegiances, since “there are more and more Catholics in China that are being persecuted.”
Zen also expressed concern about what he said was an erosion of the autonomy and political freedom guaranteed to Hong Kong under China’s “one country, two systems” framework. “They just threw away ‘one country, two systems’ a long time ago, and the government is becoming so totalitarian that you can’t believe you are in Hong Kong anymore,” Zen said.
Zen cited the government’s unprecedented bid to ban a pro-independence group known as the Hong Kong National Party, calling it “ridiculous – a pretext to stop all criticism.”
Asked what he would like to be remembered for, Zen chuckled and replied: “Oh, I simply don’t like to be remembered. If they remember me, they should pray for me. That’s all.”
Oh, bother.
Any church leader who thinks they can negotiate in good faith with a government that is burning down churches is, at best, being wildly optimistic.
Disgusted, but not surprised
China accuses Taiwan of manipulating students with sex to become spies
The claim was made as part of a massive state media campaign highlighting the alleged espionage activities of foreign Taiwanese agents.
Going all-out lately.
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
Oh, bother.
The CCP accusing Taiwan of being subversive and evil. Pretty blatant projection there.
Disgusted, but not surprised
Honey traps are quite the common tool of espionage (even if at times it's an unreliable one), so yeah, the CCP very likely does it as well (and perhaps mostly towards Westerners).
Edited by Quag15 on Sep 19th 2018 at 2:40:59 PM
Professional Writer & Amateur Scholar
EDIT: Wrong link.
Edited by dRoy on Sep 20th 2018 at 12:05:50 AM
I'm a (socialist) professional writer serializing a WWII alternate history webnovel.
The article is from April.
Welcome to Estalia, gentlemen.
Professional Writer & Amateur Scholar
Yup, copy pasted a wrong article, how embarassing of me. XP
Anyhow South and North Korea declare the end of the Korean War.
It happened, huh.
I'm a (socialist) professional writer serializing a WWII alternate history webnovel.
My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare
Re: spies.
This latest wave of the Xi administration launching an anti-spy public information drive is interesting, because they've shifted from warning about Western spies to Asian ones.
Trying to stir up the Paranoia Fuel perhaps?
The Wanderer
It's a 24 minute podcast.
Eating a Vanilluxe will give you frostbite.
Organized Canine Bureau Special Agent
I'll be keeping an eye on the development regarding Tokyo sending in a team to the MFO's base in Sinai for a feasibility study.
Which I'll put up on my personal blog regarding (mostly) political issues in the Asia-Pacific region.
"Exit muna si Polgas. Ang kailangan dito ay si Dobermaxx!"
Abe tops Ishiba in Liberal Democratic Party election and secures historic third term
Abe comfortably beat his only contender, former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, by securing 553 out of a total 807 votes. He won 329 out of the 402 valid ballots cast by LDP members of the Diet, and 224 out of the remaining 405 votes allocated to the LDP’s prefectural chapters based on the number of members age 18 or older who have paid party fees.
Although he lost the election, Ishiba put up a decent fight, bagging 181 regional votes — or 44.6 percent of the total cast by prefectural branches. This made the Abe campaign barely meet its own self-imposed goal of winning 55 percent of such votes. Seventy-three LDP lawmakers voted for Ishiba.
Abe’s extended term in office signals the possibility that the prime minister, who has already been at the helm of the world’s third-largest economy for nearly six years in his second stint as premier, may become the longest-serving prime minister in Japanese history.
But several challenges lie ahead.
Edited by CaptainCapsase on Sep 10th 2018 at 8:16:38 AM