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The General Russia Thread

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This thread is about Russia and any events, political or otherwise, that are or might be worth discussing.

Any news, links or posts pertaining to the situation involving Russia, Crimea and Ukraine must be put in the 'Crisis in Ukraine' thread.

Group of deputies wants Gorbachev investigated over Soviet break-up.

Above in the Guardian version.

Putin's war against Russia's last independent TV channel.

No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

Edited by MacronNotes on Feb 27th 2022 at 11:26:10 AM

Smeagol17 (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13776: Aug 3rd 2022 at 1:49:18 PM

But what would "it" be? Russia will be unable to make gunpowder and steel?

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13777: Aug 3rd 2022 at 1:58:34 PM

No, Russia unable to support the standard of living of a majority of Russians, at which point the war loses a lot of domestic support.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Smeagol17 (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13778: Aug 3rd 2022 at 2:12:24 PM

May be, but in my expirience, even the price of oil is easier to predict then such things as 'domestic support'. Especially the part of it that has a material effect on anything.

Edited by Smeagol17 on Aug 3rd 2022 at 12:31:33 PM

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13779: Aug 3rd 2022 at 4:03:26 PM

Really? Because the economy crashing typically results in a lot of pissed off citizens. We can't know for sure, of course, but my guess is that Putin really doesn't want to risk losing the support of his base. It certainly wouldn't make anything easier for him.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Smeagol17 (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13780: Aug 3rd 2022 at 11:19:29 PM

In theory, yes. But at least the history of Russian Federation('s wars) can not exatly be used to support this. Even during the First Chechen War the pressure to end it was not because of the economy. And that Putin would rather avoid an economic crisis or mobilization is self-evident, but at least in the first case is also self-evidently not his absolute priority.

Edited by Smeagol17 on Aug 3rd 2022 at 9:25:43 PM

Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#13781: Aug 4th 2022 at 12:36:29 AM

What about the effects of economic crisis on the military ? I mean regardless of effects on popular support effects on military would have much more direct effect on the war.

Edited by Risa123 on Aug 4th 2022 at 9:42:51 PM

RSunny Since: Mar, 2022
#13782: Aug 4th 2022 at 1:01:03 AM

[up]Any crisis short of total economy collapse would have minimal effect on military servicemen. Their salary is payed in rubles, and government can print more of them, even if everything else fail.

The main effect of sanctions now is the difficulty of producing anything with modern electronic components by Russian Defense industry.

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#13783: Aug 4th 2022 at 1:02:52 AM

Doesn't matter how much money you have if you cannot actually buy shit with it.

Having a lot of rubles on-hand is cold comfort if the shelves in the stores are empty.

Edited by M84 on Aug 4th 2022 at 4:03:18 PM

Disgusted, but not surprised
RSunny Since: Mar, 2022
#13784: Aug 4th 2022 at 1:10:48 AM

As long as store prices are not regulated by state, there won't be any major "empty shelves". More realistically, products will divide into two categories: 1) affordable and shitty local production 2) good and pricey imported goods.

Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#13785: Aug 4th 2022 at 1:32:08 AM

I was actually talking about effects on military logistic, but yes soldiers not being able to buy stuff is important too.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#13786: Aug 4th 2022 at 2:19:39 AM

I think one thing to consider is that people's reactions to economic hardship is time dependent. The initial response will usually be defiance, but after some time protest or acceptance or both will kick in.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Tenebrika she/her (Less Newbie) Relationship Status: Not war
she/her
#13788: Aug 4th 2022 at 2:42:48 AM

What about the effects of economic crisis on the military ?
Back when the invasion just started and the first sanctions were implemented, several Russian economist remembered this old joke:
Father: Prices for vodka have gone up.
Son: Dad, does this mean you'll drink less?
Father: No, my boy, you'll eat less.

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#13789: Aug 4th 2022 at 6:01:12 AM

[up][up]Defiance to outsider pressure. Calls for buying Russian and stuff like that, or other petty-level things along lines of thr US Congress renaming French fries "freedom fries" back in 2003.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13790: Aug 4th 2022 at 7:22:45 AM

Russia is already running out of imported goods. Their economy right now is running on previously stored up foreign currency reserves. Once that starts running out, they are in for a hard time.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#13791: Aug 4th 2022 at 7:43:37 AM

[up] Any idea for how long they will last ?

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13792: Aug 4th 2022 at 12:32:12 PM

Impossible to say, esp. since I would assume that Russia is doing everything it can to obfuscate the truth. Generally, when it comes to economies, everything looks fine to casual observation until very suddenly it isn't anymore.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Tenebrika she/her (Less Newbie) Relationship Status: Not war
she/her
#13793: Aug 5th 2022 at 3:21:02 AM

Speaking of economy, I just came across a recent paper by Yale University titled "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy."

Conclusions

- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas – as we explain further in Section II of this paper.

- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy – as we explain further in Section III of this paper.

- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst – as we explain further in Section IV of this paper.

- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base – as we explain further in Section V of this paper.

- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood – as we explain further in Section VI of this paper.

- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy – as we explain further in Section VII of this paper.

- Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.

Edit: [down] Oh. Sorry.

Edited by Tenebrika on Aug 5th 2022 at 5:35:53 PM

Smeagol17 (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13794: Aug 5th 2022 at 3:27:14 AM

It was already cited on the last page.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#13795: Aug 6th 2022 at 8:57:04 PM

@RSunny: Local Russian industry isn't actually ramping up to make consumer goods to replace imports, because (a) the supply chains aren't set up for it, and (b) Russian production in autarky will not be enough to support the standard of living that Russian citizens expect. Hence, there will definitely be empty shelves.

Real-world markets don't work like theoretical models.

Smeagol17 (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13796: Aug 6th 2022 at 11:51:42 PM

In standard model, the prices rise till the shelves are full (and there are less shelves). At least in medium term.

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#13797: Aug 7th 2022 at 8:57:50 AM

https://twitter.com/henrivanhanen/status/1554090870407839745?s=21&t=ipXZH1h2zq2pM2i5QHUNvw

A Russian sign is posted in Finland that says the following:

"While you are on vacation, all Ukrainians have no home to return to."

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#13798: Aug 8th 2022 at 2:36:42 PM

Russia's Kaspersky Labs indicated that China's TA428 government-connected hacking group is behind numerous attacks on Russia's defense-industrial enterprises. Dunno why they would do this, isit just going after some easy prey?

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#13799: Aug 8th 2022 at 5:55:12 PM

No honor among thieves.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#13800: Aug 8th 2022 at 5:56:07 PM

Yes.

I mean, wtf is the Russian government gonna do? Nothing, that’s what.

Disgusted, but not surprised

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