This thread is about Russia and any events, political or otherwise, that are or might be worth discussing.
Any news, links or posts pertaining to the situation involving Russia, Crimea and Ukraine must be put in the 'Crisis in Ukraine' thread.
Group of deputies wants Gorbachev investigated over Soviet break-up.
Above in the Guardian version
.
Putin's war against Russia's last independent TV channel
.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
Edited by MacronNotes on Feb 27th 2022 at 11:26:10 AM
Really? Because the economy crashing typically results in a lot of pissed off citizens. We can't know for sure, of course, but my guess is that Putin really doesn't want to risk losing the support of his base. It certainly wouldn't make anything easier for him.
I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.In theory, yes. But at least the history of Russian Federation('s wars) can not exatly be used to support this. Even during the First Chechen War the pressure to end it was not because of the economy. And that Putin would rather avoid an economic crisis or mobilization is self-evident, but at least in the first case is also self-evidently not his absolute priority.
Edited by Smeagol17 on Aug 3rd 2022 at 9:25:43 PM
Any crisis short of total economy collapse would have minimal effect on military servicemen. Their salary is payed in rubles, and government can print more of them, even if everything else fail.
The main effect of sanctions now is the difficulty of producing anything with modern electronic components by Russian Defense industry.
I think one thing to consider is that people's reactions to economic hardship is time dependent. The initial response will usually be defiance, but after some time protest or acceptance or both will kick in.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanFather: Prices for vodka have gone up.
Son: Dad, does this mean you'll drink less?
Father: No, my boy, you'll eat less.
Speaking of economy, I just came across a recent paper by Yale University titled "Business Retreats and Sanctions Are Crippling the Russian Economy."
Conclusions
- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas – as we explain further in Section II of this paper.
- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy – as we explain further in Section III of this paper.
- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst – as we explain further in Section IV of this paper.
- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base – as we explain further in Section V of this paper.
- Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood – as we explain further in Section VI of this paper.
- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy – as we explain further in Section VII of this paper.
- Looking ahead, there is no path out of economic oblivion for Russia as long as the allied countries remain unified in maintaining and increasing sanctions pressure against Russia.
Edit:
Oh. Sorry.
Edited by Tenebrika on Aug 5th 2022 at 5:35:53 PM
@RSunny: Local Russian industry isn't actually ramping up to make consumer goods to replace imports, because (a) the supply chains aren't set up for it, and (b) Russian production in autarky will not be enough to support the standard of living that Russian citizens expect. Hence, there will definitely be empty shelves.
Real-world markets don't work like theoretical models.
https://twitter.com/henrivanhanen/status/1554090870407839745?s=21&t=ipXZH1h2zq2pM2i5QHUNvw
A Russian sign is posted in Finland that says the following:
"While you are on vacation, all Ukrainians have no home to return to."
Russia's Kaspersky Labs indicated that China's TA428 government-connected hacking group is behind numerous attacks on Russia's defense-industrial enterprises.
Dunno why they would do this, isit just going after some easy prey?

But what would "it" be? Russia will be unable to make gunpowder and steel?