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The General Russia Thread

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This thread is about Russia and any events, political or otherwise, that are or might be worth discussing.

Any news, links or posts pertaining to the situation involving Russia, Crimea and Ukraine must be put in the 'Crisis in Ukraine' thread.

Group of deputies wants Gorbachev investigated over Soviet break-up.

Above in the Guardian version.

Putin's war against Russia's last independent TV channel.

No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

Edited by MacronNotes on Feb 27th 2022 at 11:26:10 AM

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#226: Apr 23rd 2014 at 9:48:39 AM

Ah, but that's just the thing. From an economics perspective, the West doesn't have to accept a thing. It always makes sense to capitalize on foreign investment, and if Russia ever does get it's act together, all that will mean is that they become more available as an investment opportunity. Conversely, if they do not get their act together, they never become wealthy (in fact, from a strictly economic perspective, "getting your act together" and "becoming more appealing to foreign investment" is more or less the same thing). Economics is a win-win game for those who start at the top.

Also, I think if you compare the amount of capital entering Russia, vs the amount leaving, you will find that Russia is experiencing a net loss, a trend that is getting worse, not better.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Emuran from the wild frontier Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#227: Apr 23rd 2014 at 9:55:08 AM

The Zhirinovsky story has ended, the Gosduma ethics committee investigated and came to the conclusion that the journalists were to blame for Zhirinovsky's outburst, by "asking provocative questions and acting provocatively"

Khto tse, mamo-mamo?
Emuran from the wild frontier Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#229: Apr 23rd 2014 at 10:01:43 AM

I cite Aleksandr Degtyaryov of the ethics committee: "He simply broke down. What, are you surprised that a person can break down? You pester him every day and night, it could have been far worse......."

And Beat, because Degtyaryov was trying to think of a far worse example.

edited 23rd Apr '14 10:07:29 AM by Emuran

Khto tse, mamo-mamo?
Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#230: Apr 23rd 2014 at 10:09:57 AM

[up]

Seems legit.


First Bear incursion of the year. Dutch F-16s from Volkel Air Force Base were scrambled to intercept two Russian Tu-95 bombers. The Bears were escorted back to Russia by Danish and British fighters. There were two such incursions last year.

Could be sabre-rattling, I suspect it's more likely this has been planned for a while. The Bears don't fly that often, so what will help us tell is if there are further incursions.

Schild und Schwert der Partei
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#231: Apr 23rd 2014 at 1:41:29 PM

@Demarquis - But then if the West doesn't have to, neither does Russia. That's the problem. The West claiming it can do what it wants because of current paradigms ensures a negative response. Again, the West does what it wants at its own peril. There is no situation where there are zero consequences for the West. Lack of understanding that among their leaderships ensured they would stumble into the crisis. It is less costly for Russia, in the long run, to resist than it is for Europe to try and economically colonize the place.

As for inflows, I'm looking at the big picture, not the immediate one.

Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#232: Apr 23rd 2014 at 2:30:29 PM

[up]How do you see the Russian economy fairing in the long-term?

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#233: Apr 23rd 2014 at 6:09:27 PM

Mio's question kind of gets at your comment already. The difference is that the West can pay for what it wants to do, which is make more money. That's what is meant by a "sustainable system". The Russian system isnt economically sustainable, because it cant compete with us.

The question of who is "right" doesnt enter into it. Both sides are pursuing their own interests, but it's the Russian side that complains that they aren't being treated fairly. Maybe that's true, but the West doesn't act on fairness, it responds to ROI.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#234: Apr 23rd 2014 at 6:36:43 PM

[up]I consider myself rather ignorant on the subject of the Russian economy, which is why I asked him.

In this case both you and Shinra seem to come to different conclusions on Russia's long term prospects and I would like to know why.

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#235: Apr 24th 2014 at 8:42:04 AM

The European economy is suffering due to overextention. It doesn't have the infrastructure to handle it, which means a great deal of the current advantage is being lost, not only politically for those who want to keep the spending and moneymaking closer to home, but out of inefficiency as well.

As for why I think Russia isn't unsustainable, their oil isn't on as weak a foundation as seems to be assumed. Asia as a whole is practically starving for the stuff, Europe has not yet weaned itself off and in certain cases likely won't for many years to come. Nevermind that the alternative of American oil is not going to be immediate (and its controversial enough that it might take even longer than it feasibly should). The various oil supers have recently doubled down there to

The Russian defense industry isn't like the 90s anymore when all they were doing was selling surplus Soviet equipment. They've been building new equipment, highly competitive if not better than produced in the West, and for cheaper. That, in turn, and especially now that production isn't strictly state controlled like in the Soviet days, has led to the development of auxillary businesses and industries that directly and indirectly benefit from broad weapons manufacture. You only need to look on the military forums to see my point.

The Russian IT and automotive sectors have recovered from the 90s, a new banking sector now exists (initially for the oligarchs, but it's been gaining outside Russia as well), and those are just from the top of my head. The problem is that people are mistaking percentage of what is currently the main sector of the economy for the potential of the economy. Other countries, with far less of a base to start from, have used their oil wealth to create the other sectors and make them self sustainable.

Demarquis- It's not about right and wrong. It's about Russia having the right to pursue it's national interest, same as Europe. Just because it's had to recover from the 90s doesn't make it any less willing. Economic power alone isn't enough to determine that. Especially when only looking at the short term.

Emuran from the wild frontier Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#236: Apr 24th 2014 at 9:20:48 AM

Today's Putin quote: "The Internet was at first a secret CIA project, and it has continued in this vein".

Khto tse, mamo-mamo?
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#237: Apr 24th 2014 at 9:24:56 AM

While the Internet was founded starting from an Department Of Defense project, the CIA has nothing to do with it.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#238: Apr 24th 2014 at 9:33:27 AM

Outside the US CIA is codeword for anything nefarious from the US. DARPA, NSA, DIA, none of the rest of the alphabet soup means anything.tongue Just from what I've seen of Pakistani propaganda, you'd think the TTP were all CIA agents in brownface...

edited 24th Apr '14 9:33:58 AM by FFShinra

Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#239: Apr 24th 2014 at 9:41:17 AM

[up][up][up][up]Are certain Russia can take advantage of that potential?

It's greatest advantage is that the west is, for the most part, economically paralyzed for the foresee-able future, but with the trend in the global economy being downward I'm not sure if Russia can hope to pull forward before it likely effects them.

edited 24th Apr '14 9:41:38 AM by Mio

lordGacek Since: Jan, 2001
#240: Apr 24th 2014 at 10:05:22 AM

It's not about right and wrong. It's about Russia having the right to pursue it's national interest, same as Europe.

So, you're saying, it's not about right and wrong, it's about right. And wrong, I guess? Make up your mind. tongue

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#241: Apr 24th 2014 at 10:35:34 AM

[up]tongue

[up][up]It's already starting to. They've only been able to start doing so for the last five or six years, so it'll take time.

Beholderess from Moscow Since: Jun, 2010
#242: Apr 24th 2014 at 11:24:24 AM

Speaking about Internet http://www.cnet.com/news/facebook-gmail-skype-face-russia-ban-under-anti-terror-plan/

Now, I do hope that all that would actually happen is that the companies will comply with the demands, as they don't want to lose customers, and so no service would actually be made illegal. But blast it, I really don't like it

If we disagree, that much, at least, we have in common
Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#243: Apr 24th 2014 at 11:31:31 AM

[up][up]Yes they are starting to, but can they do so before the general global economic trend downwards begins to really effect them? I'm not sure if I'm as confident as you are, especially when it's already starting to hit some of it's biggest potential customers (China and India).

edited 24th Apr '14 11:33:46 AM by Mio

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#244: Apr 24th 2014 at 11:46:48 AM

Downturns don't last forever though. My point isn't that Russia won't suffer. It's that Russia's economic shakiness isn't a permanent or even particularly long term thing.

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#245: Apr 24th 2014 at 11:47:46 AM

The problem for Russia is that their economy has such a narrow base- if anything happened to the price of oil (and, by chance alone, that has to happen eventually) public spending in Russia will go into the red, if it hasnt already. And public spending is a much larger percentage of GDP than it is in other developed nations (though not so different from the other BRIC countries, granted). Still, Russia doesnt see itself as in competition with Brazil, but with the US and the EU, and their complaint is that us Westerners treat them unfairly. We treat them on the basis of future economic and political (perhaps more the political even than the economic) instability, which seems relatively high. The US, at least, is better off partnering with, say, Poland. That immediately puts us at odds with Russia, because that's all part of the "pushing East and surrounding them" scenario, but looked at from our point of view, what else can we do? One thing I'm certain of, more confrontations are on the way.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#246: Apr 24th 2014 at 11:50:22 AM

The West could do with some introversion, actually. Not isolationism, mind, but there has been a troubling trend of looking beyond at the cost of one's own hinterland....

demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#247: Apr 24th 2014 at 11:51:54 AM

Trouble with that is, we have our own oligarch problem, whose interests are not aligned with a re-investment in domestic infrastructure...

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Emuran from the wild frontier Since: Sep, 2013 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#248: Apr 24th 2014 at 12:09:58 PM

I wonder how much Putin feels pressured by the expectations, like Yanik was during Maydan. Having built up the "we will save the suffering Russians of Ukraine" rhetoric, surely, any sign of backing down/withdrawing troops from the frontier will signify a weakness to the internal audience?

Khto tse, mamo-mamo?
Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#249: Apr 24th 2014 at 12:10:36 PM

Downturns don't last forever though. My point isn't that Russia won't suffer. It's that Russia's economic shakiness isn't a permanent or even particularly long term thing.

No they don't, but that doesn't stop them from sticking around awhile and making things worse even after the the actual downturn has passed. I'm just don't understand why you think the Russian economy is so resilient. Yes it weathered the 2007-2009 global crash better then nearly anyone else, but this is not the same scenario.

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#250: Apr 24th 2014 at 12:29:04 PM

I'm just saying not to underestimate them with some kind of economic fait accompli. Like I said before, I don't deny suffering will occur. I just deny that it must occur and that it must doom Russia.


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