Okay, every topic that has even remotely to do with the middle east keeps getting more general news put into it which removes focus from the original topic.
As such, I'm creating this thread as a general middle east and north africa topic. That means anything to do with the Arab Spring or Israel and Palestine should be kept to those threads and anything to do with more generic news (for example, new Saudi regulations on the number of foreign workers or the Lebanese elections next year, etc.) should be posted here.
I hope the mods will find this a clear enough statement of intent to open the thread.
Erdogan says Turkey will crush Kurdish militia in Afrin
The Kurdish YPG militia said Turkish forces inside Syria fired shells into Afrin on Saturday, but no one was wounded.
Turkish troops entered Idlib three months ago after an agreement with Russia and Iran for the three countries to try to reduce fighting between pro-Syrian government forces and rebel fighters in the largest remaining insurgent-held part of Syria.
Beware the Crazy Man.
I have heard reports that Assad has given the YPG a corridor from Afrin to their main holdings on the other side of the Euphrates just in case Turkey does exactly this. Mostly as a fuck you to Erdogan.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
This could get very, very ugly. Does anyone know whether the YPG received anti-tank weapons and other weapons from the West, or did we just give that stuff to the Kurds in Iraq (from which of course it still could find its' way to the YPG)?
One part of me wishes actually that Erdogan would get a bloody nose, a costly campaign might even endager his reelection on 2019. That being said, a lot of innocent people would suffer, so let us hope that he is just bluffing.
edited 14th Jan '18 1:00:16 PM by Zarastro
The Kurds have destroyed a few Turkish tanks from what I remember, and they were receiving weaponry at some point. More importantly, the Turkish military has been severely weakened after the purges.
Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
Relating to the quagmires of Afghanistan and Iraq, here's this interesting reddit discussion I found, on the US Army subreddit.
It's basically veterans giving the reasons why they hold zero grudges against anti-war protesters today. Quite heartwarming in a way.
Here we go...
Syria: Turkey war planes 'launch strikes on Afrin'
It is seeking to oust Kurdish fighters from Afrin region, held by them since 2012. Some of these forces helped the US to fight the Islamic State group.
There are also reports of pro-Turkish rebels advancing on the city.
Turkey has previously threatened a full military operation against these Kurds - which it considers a terrorist group.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also threatened to strike at the city of Manbij - some 100km away from Afrin in another Kurdish area - as a next target.
Meanwhile, Russia - a key military figure in the region - says it will not interfere in any conflict in Afrin.
Syria has warned against any operation and said it would shoot down Turkish planes.
Beware the Crazy Man.
Ah, did not realize it has been reported here already.
I'd love to see Assad try and shoot down a Turkish fighter jet. Assuming the Iranians and Russians didn't tackle him first, and then assuming even if he managed not to, he hits something, it'd be all the excuse Erdogan would need to hulk smash the rest of Assad controlled Syria.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
Wonder what happens if the Sultan's forces accidentally hit Americans embedded with the Kurds?
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Americans are currently busy with another budget spat.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Beware the Crazy Man.
The US isn't in Afrin. Russia was, which til now had prevented any operation. Ankara made a deal with Moscow. Idlib for Afrin. A lot of reports right now are mentioning the Russians abandoning Afrin just before or during the Turkish attack.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
And the poor Kurds get screwed over yet again... .
Also, while I can't provide a source a Turkish fellow student with whom I regularly talk told me that there is an ongoing debate in Turkey about annexing the occupied territory in Syria.
No doubt that Erdogan will have the final word, but apparantly both Turkish television and newspapers have in the last year repeatedly stressed the "Turkish"/Ottoman roots of Northern Syria and also cited security and humanitarian reasons (to "liberate" Northern Syria from terrorists). So Turkish soldiers might very well stay in Afrin once it is conquered.
United Earth
Why not move in on the rest of the Peninsula while they're at it, the nationalistic assholes?
How are Turkey and Iran getting along?
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Beware the Crazy Man.
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Would not surprise me if that ends up being the case, given that even in the immediate aftermath of their defeat in WWI, the Grand National Assembly still wanted to keep Aleppo and Mosul. They never accepted that part of the treaty, even when they were okay with ceding everything else. Which means its not specifically an Erdogan thing, even if it is Erdogan thats gonna push that line to the hilt.
Enemy Mine flavored cold peace.
Between his Neo-Ottomanism and other shenanigans, is there any country in Europe or the Middle East Erdogan HASN'T pissed off yet?
edited 20th Jan '18 12:16:15 PM by DrunkenNordmann
Welcome to Estalia, gentlemen.
Supposedly Bulgaria and Turkey have been getting along fine for a while now.
But that is really it to my knowledge.
Turkey could be dominating the diplomatic stage in the ME, given its' vast economic and military potential. Yet it is apparantly now reduced to gobble up some parts of Syria. And apparantly, many Erdogan fans still consider this a success... .
What are the odds Turkey heads towards Manbij after Afrin?
"The enemy of my enemy is my friend" doesn't seem to be holding up in a post-ISIS Middle East.
They should have sent a poet.
Beware the Crazy Man.
Nah. Turkey is specifically not allowed to play such a role due to Arabs having a veeerry long memory. To keep them happy, the US/UK/France always had to play grand diplomatic mediator in the post-Ottoman Era. A role the Russians are now starting to take as Trump and Obama before him retreat from middle east politics. Erdogan realizes this and is playing to Putin's tune in the hope of getting something, in this case a few strips of Syria. But this is more than what would have been allowed in the decades previous. The one time they managed it before was with the former Sanjak of Alexandretta, courtesy of the French.
They've already stated as much that they will target Manbij next once Afrin falls.
And Iran and Turkey are doing okay from an Enemy Mine standpoint. Neither is friendly to Saudia at the moment, and that allows them to accomodate each other for the moment.
edited 20th Jan '18 1:02:44 PM by FFShinra
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...
With the US forces sitting in Manbij right now with explicit orders to keep Turkey away, that could get messy. It seems like they'd send their FSA units to Manbij instead. Of course since an offensive in Afrin disrupts the de-escalation zones Russia has been setting up, and Turkey backs the FSA against Syria, it seems like there's another angle for conflict there. Syria has already threatened to shoot down Turkish warplanes, and since Russia and Syria recently joined their air defense networks that would all but put Russia and Turkey in direct conflict.
Really, the whole thing is just a mess. I figured it would get worse after ISIS, but I didn't realize how much worse.
They should have sent a poet.
That is very interesting to know. Still, Ankara could be in a much better position if they played their hands smarter. Having to deal with resentments from the past is bad enough, but giving them further reasons to hate you with your present behaviour does not seem like a good idea.
Tell Me, Have You Seen the Yellow Sign?
'White oil': Saudi Arabia seeks place on tourism map
Gazing at a shimmering salt pan below, a group of first-time Saudi hikers descended craggy slopes into a volcanic crater, part of a hidden trove of natural wonders being promoted to kickstart tourism.
Saudi Arabia will soon begin issuing tourist visas, opening up one of the last frontiers of global tourism — a sector touted as the desert kingdom's "white oil" — as it steps up diversification efforts to wean itself off its crude oil dependence.
But the conservative country, notorious for sex segregation and its austere dress code, is seen as an unlikely destination for global tourists aside from Muslim pilgrims visiting holy sites in Mecca and Medina.
Now in the midst of historic social change, the kingdom is seeking a place on the global tourism map by promoting sites such as the Al Wahbah crater, widely unheard of even within Saudi Arabia with the near absence of local tourism.
On a warm winter weekend, Amr Khalifa, a private tour operator, brought a group of first-time Saudi campers to hike to the bottom of the crater.
Clutching hiking poles, the hikers picked their way through the slippery, boulder-strewn path to the salt pan.
"I told my friends about Al Wahbah," said Jeddah-based corporate banker Mohamed Bahroon. "They had no clue."
The little-known crater, barely a four-hour drive from the western city of Jeddah, is a remnant of volcanic activity — local folklore, however, has it as having been formed when two mountains were so passionately in love that one uprooted itself to unite with the other, leaving a bowl-shaped depression in its place.
In recent months, authorities have built roads and markers to the site and erected picnic shelters around the rim of the crater.
"The key challenge is to make such tourism sites accessible," said Khalifa, adding that he only had one camping group at the site that weekend.
- 'Big treasure' -
Tourism is one of the centrepieces of Vision 2030, the blueprint to prepare the biggest Arab economy for the post-oil era, which was conceived by powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
In August the kingdom announced a multi-million dollar project to turn 50 islands and other pristine sites on the Red Sea into luxury resorts.
It also plans to develop historic sites such as the centuries-old Mada'in Saleh, home to sandstone tombs of the same civilisation which built the Jordanian city of Petra.
The kingdom aims to nearly double the annual number of tourists it attracts to 30 million by 2030, with the sector projected to become one of its top revenue earners.
Tourism chief Prince Sultan bin Salman bin Abdulaziz told AFP last month that preparations were afoot to launch electronic visas in the first quarter of 2018 to "all nationals whose countries allow their citizens to visit" the Gulf state.
"The kingdom is a very big treasure," Prince Sultan said, describing its stunning landscapes. "We're not just oil traders."
In an effort to change perceptions, Saudi Arabia has relaxed some of its most rigid rules — lifting a cinema ban, allowing gender-mixed sporting events and announcing that women will be allowed to drive from next June.
But its absolute ban on alcohol still makes it a hard sell for many global tourists, experts say.
Rumours have swirled about plans to create exclusive resorts for foreign tourists, which, similar to many expat compounds in Riyadh, would have more relaxed norms.
But Prince Sultan said the kingdom, home to Islam's holiest sites, would not permit alcohol as "we do not want to give up our culture and our local values".
"Given the sensitivities of opening up to large numbers of non-Muslim tourists, I'd expect the authorities to focus more on encouraging local and regional visitors in the first instance, while the tourist infrastructure is developed," said Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in the United States.
"And then cautiously start to market the kingdom to the wider world."
- 'Travel breaks down barriers' -
But global travel agencies such as Britain-based Steppes Travel are already planning to offer packaged tours.
"There is a lot of potential for Saudi tourism — we know this not least from the pent-up demand we have within our own database," Justin Wateridge, managing director of Steppes Travel, told AFP.
"There is interest in those that know and understand Saudi Arabia and not much needs to change other than the issuing of tourist visas. Travel breaks down barriers and prejudice."
Tourism is still a "new concept" for Saudi Arabia, said Khaled Batarfi, a Jeddah-based writer.
"Serving others in our tribal heritage is unacceptable, except your own guest," he wrote in the Saudi Gazette newspaper, calling for the need for professional training.
Back at Al Wahbah, that seems to be changing.
When the hiking group emerged from the crater, guide Khalifa swung open the boot of his SUV to remove tents, folding chairs, firewood and platters of meat to set up camp near the rim.
"When Saudis go camping they take their full house with them," he said as the group settled in for the chilly night.
"That needs to change."
by Anuj Chopra
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
Ah yes, tourism in Saudi Arabia. A potential treasure trove that is squandered away by astonishing neglect from the government as well as extremely widespread incompetence, mismanagement, and/or lack of shit-giving by way too many of the private entities that seek to milk tourists for all their worth.
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
The law in the night
Do Saudi Arabia authorities still enforce the no-alcohol and forbidding couples from having physical contact in public?
Because if they do, there is not a chance in hell it will become a tourist attraction
Inter arma enim silent leges
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
AFAIK that's still the law of the land. As for whether it's actually enforced... well, I can't be sure, since a lack of news of people doing such acts could equally indicate either that it's strictly enforced or that there's an stark lack of people deciding to commit those taboos (part of the latter may be due to fear of the authorities cracking down, since they're infamous for not being big on respecting basic rights).
Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Saudi Arabia also has significant competition on the tourism front, several of their immediate neighbors are ahead of them by decades. And even if you do it properly, tourism is like any other industry, it has to be built up (marketing campaigns, staff training, promoting the right sort of businesses in the right places, etc) and that takes time to do properly.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
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Afwerki is with Egypt and Saudia, since Egypt beefing with Ethiopia suits Eritrea just fine.
Final Fantasy, Foreign Policy, and Bollywood. Helluva combo, that...