This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the revolt that eventually overthrew the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections. Since the Russian invasion that began in February 2022, it's been repurposed to focus on the conflict. Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
Although at one time claims were made that different segments of Ukrainian society were more aligned with Russia than the West, the invasion seems to have resulted in a higher level of Ukrainian unity in the face of Russian military aggression. Although it is hard to document public opinion in the occupied areas, there was never very much evidence in favor of support for the Russian annexation of sections of Ukraine.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map
will help track the latest developments.
Mod notes
- Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
- No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
- When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter/X?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented. If, for example, it's a single civilian voice on Twitter/X, is it really trustworthy or relevant?
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine
- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital
- over 100,000 by some counts
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine
- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.
EDIT (2/24/2022)
This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.
Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map
will help track the latest developments.
Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.
Edited by DeMarquis on Dec 25th 2024 at 7:44:33 AM
Which is wrong. The Serbs were more worried of the Turks, the Austrians wanted to leave the Balkans alone, i.e. neither is "needlessly provoking each other". The Archduke visited as a gesture of goodwill, not as a "we will always be here" visit (and he was warned that there would be groups that will interpret it as the latter even if it's the former). Princip and co. just seized the opportunity (it's not like they induced the Archduke to come to them; officially Austria-Hungary's already looking for a clean getaway), it was not a systematic "provoking" of the other side.
[Shinra is not the topic - Septimus Heap]
edited 27th Nov '14 12:41:24 PM by SeptimusHeap
You're describing just the assassination that lit the match. I'm describing the powderkeg that match lit.
France wanted to get back at Germany for 1871, the Brits wanted the Germans put in their place, everyone wanted a piece of the already-dying Ottoman Empire, the Ottomans were dealing with proto-fascists leading the parliament and trying to regain lost glory, Austria was dealing with the fact that its empire no longer made sense (designed against the Turks who were no longer a threat, now split between hardliners led by the head of the army and reformers that were led by Franz Ferdinand) and thus overreacted, Serbia wanted freedom from both Istanbul and Vienna while Russia, wanting to be seen as the defender of Slavs and wanting to make up for basically leaving Belgrade out to dry in a previous conflict one generation before, backed Serbia.
Don't try and tell me Europe wasn't pushing itself toward war. Franz Ferdinand's assassination wouldn't have done anything if not for that plus a preexisting set of alliances and the lack of Europe's greatest magnificent bastard from the era to manage it all.
EDIT-
Actually I'm treated better by just about everyone else but you on this forum, despite most of them being more sympathetic to you. So that has more to do with your inability to discuss things calmly than my alleged inability to "get history right". You can ask the others how I am with regards to the facts.
Also, not contributing to an echo chamber or actually demanding that the West doesn't act like hypocrites makes me equivalent to a Russian poster? Really? How seriously childish can you get.
As for what's in parentheses, I'm not one to ascribe that level of genius to NATO or Russia. But to deny NATO was taking advantage of a situation at all is seriously naive on your part. Especially when you turn around and say the same about Russia. The Russia is Evil and everyone else is good trope is a sad and scary misreading of what actually happens in day to day international politics. Maybe if you realized that, you'd realize this is actually a very large chess game and Ukraine is the board and there is fuck all with regards to morality except what is in the propaganda, with the victims being maidanists and pro-russians who just wanted to go West or East respectively, forgetting everything else.
edited 26th Nov '14 10:13:45 PM by FFShinra
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Let's please calm down and get on topic, please. If you really want to pursue this train of thought, do it in P Ms.
The 8th Verkhovna Rada is opening today.
Khto tse, mamo-mamo?Yeah I'm gonna go ahead and press my magical *summon mod* button. It's getting tiring now and frankly I expect better from you Entropy. Disagree with Shinra's arguments all you want (god knows I do), but there's no need to start making this argument about him individually.
For the record I'm making this post specifically so that if the mods do respond to my hollar nobody ends up starting a further fight over who called the mods in.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran@Shinra
The Reuters article is part of a series on who owns and runs Russia - I think they're all actually on the page emuran linked. They started way back during the Sochi Olympics and they've continued during the Ukraine crisis. I think the early ones had been long-planned even without Maidan, and the timing has been good for Reuters.
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If we want to draw historical parallels, let me further disagree: I think this is more like the fifteen or so years immediately post-WWII, when the European colonial empires came apart and all those post-imperial chickens came home to roost as the newly independent states aligned themselves with the NAM or Moscow. Eastern Europe sought to join the EU and NATO because it did not have fond memories or a positive relationship with Russia, just as the post-imperial states turned away from their erstwhile overlords in the West. Putin is just as wrong in attributing this phenomenon to the West's "color revolution" machine as the Western powers were in attributing the rise of socialism to the evil empire pulling strings behind the scenes.
Schild und Schwert der Partei@Achaemenid - Impressive all the same.
@De Marquis - If Achae's analysis is right, and coupled with news coming out of Kiev, that exception is unlikely. They're already throwing the easterners still with Kiev under the bus by not giving them any sort of guarentees that their interests would be looked after.
My analysis is more about the powers outside Ukraine rather than Ukraine's behavior proper, so in that case I don't see it as the Interbellum (though I do with regards to the original Maidan movement). The EU and Russia have been wanting to tussle with each other since at least 2006 and have various reasons why they want to do so. Their normal methods of dialing back have been suspended because they both seem to want Ukraine to be a sort of end all be all battle royale. The only difference is that I don't think either would ever directly confront each other as in WWI. Thats where the Cold War comparisons have more merit.
The idea that this is about states wanting to flee Russia's grasp because of the past has merit. But not uniformly so. Romania, Hungary and former Czechoslovakia have all been relatively muted. Not because they like Russia, but because other issues are taking priority. Romania is busy with tackling corruption and, in the long term, seeking unification with Moldova. Hungary has quite a few internal problems if the Eastern European thread is anything to go by, and Czechs and Slovaks seem
Really, where the idea has merit is Moldova, Poland, and the Baltic states. In the case of the latter though, there are other issues in the undercurrent.
With Poland, in addition to the interbellum mentality, you have them making a play for influence in the EU as a sort of Germany of the East.
With the Baltic states, they've been using the "we must escape and be with the west" idea long before Ukraine was an issue, so their views are independent of what's going on (and, I think, a cause rather than an effect). But more importantly, the internal situations in Estonia and Latvia are such that they have to keep up the idea of Russia being the enemy because if they stop, they have to deal with their large Russian minorities fairly which changes the internal balance of power (and I don't mean in the east-west sense since the Russians who live in those two countries are quite happy not being in Russia or would otherwise be if not for official discrimination). There is also hope that the rally around the flag effect will dampen or reverse their current severe population decline. The practical concerns vis a vis Russia are really not founded anymore since they're part of the EU and NATO these days and are too small and insignificant (to Russia) to be worth the risk of war with all NATO.
Lithuania and Moldova are straight examples though.
tldr: They have their own reasons independent of their history with Russia or Russia's actions to be doing what they're doing.
It's up to the Ukrainians themselves to manage their oligarchs, which the success of Maidan gives one a reason to be optimistic. The West is at least making some of the assistance money contingent on political reforms, plus it should be clear that once the Ukrainian oligarchs feel their interests to be secure, they have much to gain from a closer relationship with Putin and co. It really comes down to how rational Angela Merkel is in pursuing her country's long-term interests. And her attitude has changed significantly since the Donbass Crisis began.
I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.Brown bears return to Chernobyl after a century away
In other news Putin announces annexation of Chernobyl Exclusion Zone Oblast in order to protect Russian minority. Seriously though, this is great news, I though nobody could even survive their without radiation suits.
edited 30th Nov '14 2:13:26 PM by JackOLantern1337
I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.That's not quite how radioactivity works.
Short of going into the reactor or the heavily contaminated areas, you are not going to get a lethal doese. It will increase your cancer risk, though.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanLooks like one of the relatives of the victims from MH 17 from Germany is suing Kiev.
BBC suggested that it was negligence in closing eastern Ukrainian airspace.
Not sure how I feel, on the one hand, it was negligent not to close the airspace,especially after those Cargo planes were lost. On the other hand,it plays right into Putin's narrative. Also it is almost certainly what those who shot down the plane hoped would happen. That said I hope she isn't just suing Ukraine, Malaysian Airlines needs to be held accountable for this to.
@Cornelli - a lot of ethnic Russians in Kyiv/Chernihiv/Poltava are some of the fiercest Ukrainian nationalists. Most of the Right Sector is Russian-speaking, too. Can't name any politicians, though (notwithstanding the fact that most of the politicians are only loyal to themselves and their pockets).
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Nobody thought that the shooting down of a civilian plane was even remotely possible (it's not that hard to discern a Boeing from a Su or an Il). I think the right term is fatal negligency.
edited 1st Dec '14 10:24:19 AM by emuran
Khto tse, mamo-mamo?
Show me one fighter/bomber plane being used by Ukraine that is able to fly at 15000 feet. That's a pretty big hint, no?
If you know that different types of aircraft fly at different heights and that military planes don't fly that high, sure it's a big hint, but there's still an "if" there.
Though then the question becomes what idiot didn't bother to explain the basic of aircraft differentiating to the guy they gave the AA weapons to.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranThe Ilyushin Il-76 a quad engine airlifter currently in service with the Ukrainian airforce which has a flight ceiling of 42,000 feet
The Antonov An-70 a turboprop airlifter has a ceiling of 39,000 feet.
edited 1st Dec '14 12:23:24 PM by Canid117
"War without fire is like sausages without mustard." - Jean Juvénal des Ursins

@entropy - Seriously can it with the sarcasm and hostility. If you actually tried to think about what I was saying, you'd know I was referring to the fact that both sides are needlessly provoking each other.
@Reuters - That must be the biggest article I've ever seen from those guys. I usually expect something like that from Time...