This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the revolt that eventually overthrew the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections. Since the Russian invasion that began in February 2022, it's been repurposed to focus on the conflict. Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
Although at one time claims were made that different segments of Ukrainian society were more aligned with Russia than the West, the invasion seems to have resulted in a higher level of Ukrainian unity in the face of Russian military aggression. Although it is hard to document public opinion in the occupied areas, there was never very much evidence in favor of support for the Russian annexation of sections of Ukraine.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map
will help track the latest developments.
Mod notes
- Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
- No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
- When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter/X?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented. If, for example, it's a single civilian voice on Twitter/X, is it really trustworthy or relevant?
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine
- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital
- over 100,000 by some counts
Ukrainian protesters besiege government building
Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU
Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine
- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."
What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.
The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.
EDIT (2/24/2022)
This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.
Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.
The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.
While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."
This map
will help track the latest developments.
Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.
No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.
When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.
Edited by DeMarquis on Dec 25th 2024 at 7:44:33 AM
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-oil-and-gas-revenues-fall-for-third-consecutive-month/
Russia relies heavily on its energy exports to finance the ongoing large-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Russia collected 787.3 billion rubles ($9.8 billion) from oil and gas taxes in July, which is down 28% compared to the same month in 2024. Over the first seven months of 2025, oil and gas revenues fell by 19%, totaling 5.52 trillion rubles ($68 billion) — below the 6.78 trillion rubles collected in the same period last year ($84 billion).
Mineral extraction tax (NDPI) revenue — a key component of Russia's energy income — plunged 38% year-on-year to 634.1 billion rubles ($7.9 billion), with oil companies contributing 543.4 billion rubles ($6.7 billion), 36% less than in July 2024.
Gazprom, Russia's state-owned gas giant, has seen its exports to Europe hit lows not seen since the 1970s, according to the Moscow Times. Earlier, in July, the EU approved the 18th sanctions package, lowering the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.6 per barrel.
The cap was originally imposed by the G7 in late 2022 to curtail Russia's oil revenues without destabilizing global markets.
Initially, Russia's Finance Ministry had projected 10.94 trillion rubles ($136 billion) in oil and gas revenue for 2025. That estimate has now been revised downward by nearly a quarter to 8.32 trillion rubles ($103 billion).
To compensate, the Kremlin will reportedly continue tapping into the National Wealth Fund, whose liquid assets have already shrunk by two-thirds since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.
U.S. President Donald Trump suggested on Aug. 5 that falling oil prices could compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
Trump said that Russian President Vladimir Putin "will stop killing people" if OPEC and OPEC+ countries continue to export more oil.
"He's (Putin) going to have no choice, because his economy stinks," Trump said in an interview with CNBC. "(OPEC and OPEC+) want to drill more because, I think, they want me happy, because if energy goes down low enough, Putin is going to stop killing people," Trump claimed.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 6, 2025
- Trump, Putin, Zelensky may meet in the coming weeks.
- Some Russian commentators ae trying to cause division in Washington régime.
- US imposed more tariffs on India due economic cooperation with Russia.
- Russia likely advanced to outskirts of Kupyansk and now can threaten Ukrainian roads into the town.
- The US announced aid.
- Ukrainine advanced near Chasiv Yar.
- Russia advanced in northern Kharkiv and western Zaporizhia oblasts and near Kupyansk, Lyman, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 7, 2025
- Putin, Trump and Zelensky meeting may happen in next two weeks.
- Russia may consider a moratorium on strikes which would benefit them.
- Russia has significatly increased production of missiles this year.
- Russia advanced in the Toretsk direction and probably captured Toretsk.
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-budget-deficit-hits-61-billion/
The government had originally planned for a 3.8 trillion ruble ($47.6 billion) deficit in 2025. The July figure already exceeds the government's full-year target by more than 30%.
The deficit comes as the Kremlin raised defense spending to its highest level since the Cold War and as many Russian officials warn about the possibility of recession.
This is...bad, isnt?
I remenber analysis saying the stockpile and russia capaiblity would be greatly degree by now, wasnt that truth?
Edited by unknowing on Aug 8th 2025 at 12:23:21 PM
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"I honestly cannot fathom why Zelenskyy would even entertain the idea of talking with Putin and Trump these days.
I know Zelensky has to put up appearances for its own sake, but Trump has the skills of a good negotiator like a five year-old can explain the theory of general relativity. And Putin’s gonna do the same thing he’s done every time these talks have happened.
If it were almost literally anyone else hosting the talks (well, namely anyone in Europe, but I can imagine why Putin would object to them), I could see Zelenskyy making some much needed and earned headway (or at the very least, getting more aid), but with Trump….well, we kinda already know how it’s going to play out.
Chain an angry nature god at your own peril.Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 8, 2025
- cut-off was 11:30 am ET.
- Russia demands that Ukraine cede Dontesk fotress belt as part of ceasefire.
- This would save Russia a lot of trouble.
- Ukrainine advanced near Kupyansk and Toretsk.
- Russia advanced near Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
- EU announced aid.
- Ukraine has new anti-drone drone.
Considering the power of pro-Russian types and their enablers it does not seem that he has a choice here.
Edited by Risa123 on Aug 9th 2025 at 10:42:36 AM
Well remenber when trump did that super bad mineral deal that then ukraine manage to defang into a kinda regular-ish deal. Zelenisky need to be there because otherwise putin control the flow of talks, whit is even more worrying with Trump who can be easly honney talked.
And yeah china is probably how russia got more production kinda tracks.
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"
In an effective democracy, yes. Putin, however, has a tight grip on the state, and so can impose a degree of suffering on his populace just to not look weak.
The Russian economy not doing well is generally bad for Russia's war effort. Basically:
Putin needs soldiers in order to invade Ukraine. However, as the bodies pile up, he has to basically increase the pay rate for his soldiers in order to recruit new ones. After all, the pool has to recruit from are the people who didn't join earlier, so they'll need increasingly higher incentives to join.
What's worse is that he's getting increasingly less enthusiastic soldiers as the war goes on.
So, yes, the Russian economy going down is usually going to be a bad thing for the war effort. Only real way I can see it benefiting him is Russians being out of a job deciding to join the army.
Leviticus 19:34
Actually, as economical situation worsens enticing people for army service becomes easier, as other jobs are less and less available (and at least in army you will be fed).
What really worsens Russian war effort is decreasing amount of international currency allocated for war. We can print rubles and use them to pay to soldiers and internal manufacture (or raise taxes), but we do not print dollars (at least yet), and those are used to procure lots of advanced components, primary for drones.
- cut-off was 1:00 pm
- US described Russian ceasefire proposal in four different ways since August 6.
- The only element common element is demand for Ukraine to withdraw from unoccupied parts of Donetsk Oblast.
- Ukrainian and Europe made a counterproposal to US.
- Russia was happy about US propasal to meet in Alaska on August 15 and talked about Russia's historical claims to Alaska.
- Ukraine continued drone strikes against military and military industry.
- Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (Mo D) replaced Northern Grouping of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin with Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov.
- Ukrainiane advanced near Kupyansk.
indeed, Russia have inflated the soldier wage to the roof so soldier keep coming because he isnt going to do a mobilization.
it seen Russia will keep canibalizing the state to keep the war going and it speak of Putin confidence russia public wont bother to do anything, which is depresing on itself
"My Name is Bolt, Bolt Crank and I dont care if you believe or not"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 10, 2025
- cut-off was 1 pm ET.
- US will not directly support Ukraine. Europe will have to buy weapons from US and then send them to Ukraine.
- US-Russia-Ukraine meeting is considered to be on 15 august.
- Ukraine continues drone attacks. First attack at target in Komi Republic.
- Russia advanced near Lyman.
- Ukraine anti-drone drone development continues.
Well there is certainly no guarantee, but think that US-Russia relations will inevitable worsen and Ukraine may benefit from (and work to ensure) it. As for Ukraine's goals in this negotations. I think it is going to about looking dimplomatic, ensure contined US aid and preventing things from getting worse.
I think that Ukraine also needs to work on its military leadership. It seems like the current commander has a habit of downplaying problems if the comments I am seeing on them by reliable and somewhat-reliable sources are any indication. Stopping that Russian advance around Pokrovsk would be nice too.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanRussian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2025
- cutt-off was 12:30 pm ET.
- US claims that they will try to get important Ukranian territory back in negotation process.
- US claims that Russia was forced into proposing a summit by sanctions.
- Russia may use negotions to get concessions on arm control treaties.
- Ukraine continues to attack Russian military industry.
- Russia advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
- Russian is allegedly infiltrating areas near Dobropillya northwest of Pokrovsk.
Well, to my understanding the last commader was fired at least in part because Zelensky thought he was too pesimistic. So it would not be suprising if the current one was doing teh opposite.
Edited by Risa123 on Aug 11th 2025 at 7:56:03 PM
Well, the carpet-and-broom treatment isn't going to fix the actual problem. Speaking of, here's Michael Kofman's X notes, picking out a few relevant points:
- Russia’s advance near Dobropillia reflects the broader problematic dynamic, characterized by a lack of cohesive defensive lines, and undermanned units holding terrain, which can result in gradual then seemingly sudden shifts.
- ts important to also point to a broader problem which is the ‘not one step back’ policy, even when lacking the resources, in disadvantageous terrain, and near envelopment - rather than trading space for attrition or enabling commanders to conduct a mobile defense.
- Bottom line, its not clear yet how the situation will develop. The next few days will prove telling. But this advance is another indicator that drone units, while critical to the defense, can't fully compensate for observed challenges, or stabilize the front on their own.
And on a question about where the force generation & force management issues come from, he did concur with "Is it a senior military leadership issue? Or is it a civ-mil issue where political calculus is driving these decisions?"
Presenting without much comment because I am not a military expert. Aside from now putting the head in the sand about problems á la Russia, that robotization drive can't come soon enough (in both senses of the world)
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 5, 2025