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This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the revolt that eventually overthrew the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections. Since the Russian invasion that began in February 2022, it's been repurposed to focus on the conflict. Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.

Although at one time claims were made that different segments of Ukrainian society were more aligned with Russia than the West, the invasion seems to have resulted in a higher level of Ukrainian unity in the face of Russian military aggression. Although it is hard to document public opinion in the occupied areas, there was never very much evidence in favor of support for the Russian annexation of sections of Ukraine.

The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.

While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."

This map will help track the latest developments.

Mod notes

  • Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.

  • No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

  • When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter/X?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented. If, for example, it's a single civilian voice on Twitter/X, is it really trustworthy or relevant?

    Previous text of OP 
Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital- over 100,000 by some counts

Ukrainian protesters besiege government building

Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU

Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."

What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.

The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital- over 100,000 by some counts

Ukrainian protesters besiege government building

Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU

Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."

What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.

The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.


EDIT (2/24/2022)

This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.

Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.

The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.

While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."

This map will help track the latest developments.

Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.

No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.

Edited by DeMarquis on Dec 25th 2024 at 7:44:33 AM

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36476: Mar 9th 2025 at 1:45:48 AM

Off topic, but I remember hearing about it. Shame though, Chris Pleasance is doing these Ukraine War briefs through DM. :(

AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#36477: Mar 9th 2025 at 6:01:13 AM

United Russia Criticized for Gifting Meat Grinders to Fallen Soldiers’ Mothers

Bad taste or unintentionally funny, more like the latter? I'd find it funnier if they also gifted those mothers with beef inside black plastic bags.

WarTranslated over an The Atlantic article:The Atlantic writes that at the current pace, Putin will capture Ukraine only in ~118 years. Due to a lack of resources, Russia can fight for 1–1.5 years without major aid, per ISW analysis of its army, the outlet reports.

Despite the doom and gloom over Ukraine, the pace of advancement and the costs attached to the Russian offensives means that they aren't in good position as well. Losses well above replenishment rates, having to rely on NK for both materiel and personnel and the strain the war is putting on Russia's economy, all give Russia a limited timeframe to solidify their gains.

Inter arma enim silent leges
alekos23 Since: Mar, 2013
#36478: Mar 9th 2025 at 6:51:53 AM

It's all great fun to poke at Putin being an idiot but it's better he gets kicked out of Ukraine sooner rather than later. Even a bad joke is costly.

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36479: Mar 9th 2025 at 7:04:43 AM

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1j777iz/reportedly_footage_of_the_sudza_pipeline_being/

Coordinates provided where the suppose pipe was in Sudza. Saw vids of Russians being pumped up on sneaking in it. Nothing was pumped in and out of them IIRC.

Omega1065 Since: Nov, 2023
#36480: Mar 9th 2025 at 7:05:02 AM

I'm honestly unsure if Russia will give up soon.

RSunny Since: Mar, 2022
#36481: Mar 9th 2025 at 8:39:11 AM

[up][up][up]Problem is, no one aside from Ukrainians wants to do the actual kicking. No one actually want to go to war against Russia, and Ukraine will have very hard time to dislodge prepared Russian defenses. For that one need either an artillery, or aviation, or drone superiority. And even then Ukraine will have to grind through the lines the same way the Russia does, simply because massing for breakthrough during constant drone coverage is a suicide.

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36482: Mar 9th 2025 at 9:00:31 PM

The Elon had to diss on Polish FM Sikorski over uncertainly of Starlink being potentially closed and he had to call the FM as a "small man".

Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#36483: Mar 10th 2025 at 2:35:04 AM

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 9, 2025

  • cutt-off was 12 pm ET.
  • Russia is collapsing nothern part of Ukrainian salient in Kursk.
  • The corelation with suspension of intelligence sharing by US is noteworthy.
  • Norway and France annonced aid.
  • Ukraine advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
  • Russia advanced in Sumy and Kursk oblasts and near Siversk, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Robotyne.

Kaiseror Since: Jul, 2016
#36484: Mar 10th 2025 at 5:30:21 AM

[up] This makes me concerned that the earlier statement that Russia would be able to conquer Ukraine in 118 years didn't take that into account.

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36485: Mar 10th 2025 at 6:13:31 AM

https://united24media.com/latest-news/portugal-transfers-eight-sa-330-puma-helicopters-to-ukraine-as-military-aid-6554

Some good news. Portugal's allowing to transfer their SA 330 Pumas to Ukraine.

Previous deliveries of choppers included the Sea Kings from Germany.


https://united24media.com/latest-news/portugal-to-provide-245-million-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-in-2025-6565

This one has a long list of things Portugal has provided to Ukraine.

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#36486: Mar 10th 2025 at 8:45:51 AM

"This makes me concerned that the earlier statement that Russia would be able to conquer Ukraine in 118 years didn't take that into account."

I can't speak to specific numbers, but the Kursk salient is a very small portion of the total territory under dispute (ie, that Russia is claiming). Ukraine could lose it all and it wouldn't affect the strategic situation very much. Of greater concern are the Ukrainian troops engaged in that battle—they are worth more than the territory is, at this point. I presume Ukraine has a plan to get them out in one piece.

Overall, the truth is that Ukraine was winning the attrition battle, the tide was just beginning to turn, when Trump flipped sides. Perun just put out a video that provides a lot of strategic detail, like loss ratio's and so forth. Reading between the lines, this seems to have been at least partially the result of Ukraine winning the drone battle (they learned how to jam the Russian drones, including the big, long range ones). Russian cruise missiles and ballistic missiles are still getting through, which is why you still hear about strikes in Ukraine, but the battlefield ones, esp. including the glide bombs that Russia relies so heavily one, were losing accuracy due to Ukrainian jamming.

BUT—Russia came to rely on those drones in the first place because Ukrainian air defense was so good they couldn't risk their aircraft. And that in turn was a result of US intelligence sharing (mostly mobile radar units). Now that intelligence sharing is off the table, apparently, what happens to Ukrainian air defense is an open question. Europe, if it wants, should be able to replace this capacity, but that will take time (best case: some number of months).

Ukraine's greatest need, now as always, is ammunition, esp. artillery shells and firearms.

Even in the worst case, I predict that Ukraine will not sign a peace deal with the Russians, unless the Russians reduce the concessions they are asking for (not likely). So the outcome I expect now looks like this:

A temporary burst of territory the Russians are able to take from Ukraine. Proportionally, this will still only be in the single digit percentage of the total amount of territory Russia claims. This will peter out in a month or so, because Russia no longer has the armored equipment necessary to capture large swaths of territory.

Ukraine will not be conquered and occupied by the Russian army. They have largely achieved self-replacement of IFV's and certain other types of equipment, so they don't need the US for that anymore. Europe has the capacity to meet Ukraine's ammunition needs, and can do so relatively quickly (best case: some number of weeks) so if they commit to that Ukraine should have the capacity to defend itself, it not take back very much territory from the Russians.

The most likely long term outcome is some form of low level forever war, like the Korean peninsula with more artillery exchanges. This sucks, but probably the best Ukraine can hope for at this point.

Unless Putin dies or is overthrown in some fashion. That would be a game-changer.

Edited by DeMarquis on Mar 10th 2025 at 8:48:55 AM

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
NewEnglandPinniped from New England, doh! Since: Jun, 2023
#36487: Mar 10th 2025 at 4:26:25 PM

what happens to Ukrainian air defense is an open question. Europe, if it wants, should be able to replace this capacity, but that will take time (best case: some number of months).

Hmm. Hmmm. Good analysis, but please permit me to put forward one of my pet peeveses, that being related to any excuse regarding how long it takes to deploy certain military resources (when not constrained by political operatives). Unless the people in charge are inept (which is more likely than we would want to admit), deploying air defense within a few hundred klicks should take a few """hours""", not days, certainly not weeks. The one bottleneck could be translating manuals and training operatives, that's two weeks with a long weekend break if you are union workers, five days if you meant you're military for real, the last day getting drunk, meanwhile the trucks and trains get to the Polish border.

Anything more than that means that you SHOULD be afraid of Mordor, cause (some of) those guys don't sleep. (Though they get drunk all the time, it all balances out, and we get see another day)

Edited by NewEnglandPinniped on Mar 10th 2025 at 7:28:35 AM

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36488: Mar 11th 2025 at 5:23:46 AM

Seeing some interesting interviews with JD Vance's cousin, Nate, criticizes him for teaming up with Trump to badmouth Zelensky.

Nate was in the USMC (former) and enlisted in the Ukrainian Army after the invasion started in 2022.

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#36489: Mar 11th 2025 at 7:32:12 AM

"deploying air defense within a few hundred klicks should take a few """hours""", not days, certainly not weeks."

Well, it is politics, not logistics, that is the bottleneck. I'm pretty sure that every NATO member with their own mobile radar units (they're mostly aircraft) are democracies, and require the permission of their legislature to deploy military assets outside of their national borders. This is one of the main reasons that NATO member overseas deployment (ie, Iraq) took so long, compared to US military deployment (where the President has nearly unlimited ability to deploy military assets overseas for up to one year).

This is complicated by the fact that these AWACS units are currently defending their own national airspace, so redeploying them isn't risk free. Another complication is that European units do not exactly duplicate American capabilities one for one, so someone would have to sit down and work out a deployment plan that fills all the gaps. Then, a reporting structure has to be worked out so that Ukrainian AA units can get the intelligence in a timely and usable fashion. And of course the money has to come from somewhere. Nothing, anywhere in the world, not even in a country like Russia, gets deployed without a budget attached.

So it's a little more complicated than simply telling an AWACS pilot "fly there."

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#36490: Mar 11th 2025 at 2:23:57 PM

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 10, 2025

  • cutt-off was 11:45 am ET.
  • Russia is consolidating gains and preparing to attack Sudhza.
  • Ukraine is working on air-defence and drones.
  • Ukraine advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
  • Russia advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
[down] fixed

Edited by Risa123 on Mar 11th 2025 at 11:04:01 AM

Smeagol17 (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#36491: Mar 11th 2025 at 2:38:26 PM

Is Suhudza a merger of Sudzha and Sukhumi?)

Edited by Smeagol17 on Mar 11th 2025 at 12:38:56 PM

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36492: Mar 11th 2025 at 7:36:40 PM

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1j93i52/dominik_abelen_a_soldier_of_the_international/

Dominik Abelen, a New Zealander soldier who volunteered to serve with the DIU (GUR)'s International Legion, was given a haka send off before his body was to be buried.

SgtRicko Since: Jul, 2009
#36493: Mar 12th 2025 at 12:25:52 AM

Mad props to his team doing the haka at the funeral ceremony.

Surprising part though is how long it took for them to recover his body: he perished in combat back in August 2022, but the Russians apparently weren't keen on handing the remains over until recently.

Ominae Since: Jul, 2010
#36494: Mar 12th 2025 at 2:22:17 AM

Yeah. Just like how they sentenced that 19-year old British volunteer they "arrested" in Kursk.

It's not surprising that the ILDU, especially those who work with GUR, are highly sought out to be taken out or taken as a prisoner.

Edited by Ominae on Mar 12th 2025 at 8:09:35 AM

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Angelspawndragon King of the Seven Rhinos from That haunted house in your neighborhood Since: Nov, 2018 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
King of the Seven Rhinos
#36498: Mar 12th 2025 at 11:50:57 PM

^^ I’m honest to God shocked by this.

Chain an angry nature god at your own peril.
Risa123 Since: Dec, 2021 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
#36499: Mar 13th 2025 at 1:23:43 AM

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 12, 2025

  • cutt-off 1 pm ET.
  • Russia response to 30 days ceasefire proposal was vague.
  • The ceasefire is supposed to demonstrate willgness to negotiate.
  • Russia conquered Sudhza.
  • Ukraine advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
  • Russia advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
[up] Have to be careful around this, but I think that Russia may have been too stubborn that is at least what I hope.


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