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This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the revolt that eventually overthrew the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections. Since the Russian invasion that began in February 2022, it's been repurposed to focus on the conflict. Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.

Although at one time claims were made that different segments of Ukrainian society were more aligned with Russia than the West, the invasion seems to have resulted in a higher level of Ukrainian unity in the face of Russian military aggression. Although it is hard to document public opinion in the occupied areas, there was never very much evidence in favor of support for the Russian annexation of sections of Ukraine.

The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.

While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."

This map will help track the latest developments.

Mod notes

  • Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.

  • No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

  • When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter/X?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented. If, for example, it's a single civilian voice on Twitter/X, is it really trustworthy or relevant?

    Previous text of OP 
Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital- over 100,000 by some counts

Ukrainian protesters besiege government building

Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU

Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."

What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.

The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.Ukraine protests: Thousands march through capital- over 100,000 by some counts

Ukrainian protesters besiege government building

Clashes amid huge Ukraine protest against U-turn on EU

Over 300,000 defy protest ban in Ukraine- "Fierce clashes erupt after protesters take to streets again, chanting "revolution" as anger against government grows."

What started as a protest against the decision not to sign an agreement with the EU seems to have escalated into a "Color Revolution" or "Arab Spring" style movement to force the government to resign. By some reports, the police are using violent tactics to suppress the street protests.

The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country. The current regime of President Viktor Yanukovich is part of that camp. The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society.


EDIT (2/24/2022)

This thread was originally opened in 2013 during the beginning of the revolt in Ukraine that eventually over-threw the dictatorship of the Yanukovyich regime and instituted democratic elections soon afterward. As of this writing, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion that began on 2/23, it is not clear whether or for how long Ukraine will continue to exist as an independent country.

Statements made nine years ago still seem relevant: "The Western half of the Ukraine has historically felt closer to Europe , and wants to move Ukrainian society in that direction. Eastern Ukraine feels culturally closer to Russia, and favors closer relations with that country... The current confrontations can be seen as a clash between these two halves of Ukrainian society." Some people have expressed the view that the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, beginning in 2014, never really ended.

The invasion is also a result of certain grievances proclaimed by Vladimir Putin, the current President of Russia, and used by him as justification for armed attack and occupation. Western governments, and others around the world, have joined together in condemnation of this attack.

While we do not know what the ultimate outcome of these events will be, this thread will continue to be made available as a place to record news, ask questions and express opinions about the "Crisis in Ukraine."

This map will help track the latest developments.

Do not post anything about the Ukrainian military movement and strategy. This could actually result in casualties.

No discussion regarding nuclear war. As nuclear weapons are not being used by either side, nuclear war is off-topic.

When posting social media links, please (1) state the source [e.g. Reuters reporter? State-sponsored Facebook account? Civilian Twitter?] (2) clarify if it is fact or opinion and (3) summarize the information being presented.

Edited by DeMarquis on Dec 25th 2024 at 7:44:33 AM

Iaculus Pronounced YAK-you-luss from England Since: May, 2010
Pronounced YAK-you-luss
#301: Feb 22nd 2014 at 8:51:36 AM

Behold - the golden throne of Yanukovich.

What's precedent ever done for us?
Achaemenid HGW XX/7 from Ruschestraße 103, Haus 1 Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Giving love a bad name
HGW XX/7
#302: Feb 22nd 2014 at 8:52:17 AM

[up]

Oh dear God. It's like Dubai circa 1990.

Schild und Schwert der Partei
Iaculus Pronounced YAK-you-luss from England Since: May, 2010
Pronounced YAK-you-luss
#303: Feb 22nd 2014 at 8:58:16 AM

Hahahaha holy shit.

What's precedent ever done for us?
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#304: Feb 22nd 2014 at 9:02:01 AM

Tymoshenko isn't being released because she's not guilty. She's being released because her arrest itself became a symbol of everything wrong with the regime. And her imprisonment pretty much wiped away the majority of actual giving-a-shit about anything she may have done wrong (at least among her potential constituency).

Also, to be fair, she's probably the strongest and most recognizable opposition candidate right now.

That said, it's questionable whether elections can be held at all with the regions of Ukraine declaring each other illegitimate.

[up]LOL.

edited 22nd Feb '14 9:03:24 AM by Ramidel

TheBatPencil from Glasgow, Scotland Since: May, 2011 Relationship Status: I'm just a hunk-a, hunk-a burnin' love
#305: Feb 22nd 2014 at 10:13:33 AM

Tymoshenko is now in Kiev, and will address the crowd at Independence Square.

Kharkiv regional governor Mikhaylo Dobkin and Kharkiv Mayor Hennady Kernes have fled into Russia, the Ukraine Border Service confirms.

According to the Speaker of the Rada, officials have prevented Yanukovych from also boarding a flight to Russia. He is now believed to be in Donetsk.

edited 22nd Feb '14 10:17:39 AM by TheBatPencil

And let us pray that come it may (As come it will for a' that)
demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#306: Feb 22nd 2014 at 11:21:08 AM

Wow. This really unraveled quickly didnt it?

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Iaculus Pronounced YAK-you-luss from England Since: May, 2010
Pronounced YAK-you-luss
#307: Feb 22nd 2014 at 12:44:17 PM

I think we can safely say that the Crimean Free State idea is dead, at least.

What's precedent ever done for us?
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#308: Feb 22nd 2014 at 1:04:07 PM

According to the Speaker of the Rada, officials have prevented Yanukovych from also boarding a flight to Russia. He is now believed to be in Donetsk.
... Wait, what? I thought that eastern Ukraine, where he fled to, is more or less the core of his political support base.

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Iaculus Pronounced YAK-you-luss from England Since: May, 2010
Pronounced YAK-you-luss
#309: Feb 22nd 2014 at 1:15:00 PM

[up]Yep, and even they don't seem to like him much. Bear in mind that the two regional leaders who announced a South-East Ukrainian Autonomous Republic have now fled the country as well.

edited 22nd Feb '14 1:15:10 PM by Iaculus

What's precedent ever done for us?
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#310: Feb 22nd 2014 at 2:35:22 PM

His approval rating was below 20% before the protests violent because of the economy. Even his base is sick of him at this point.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#311: Feb 22nd 2014 at 3:29:31 PM

Regional legislatures in the Eastern, pro-Russian portion of Ukraine, have declared that they do not recognize the government in Kiev, and are calling for other regions to take over all governmental functions. Article here

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
amitakartok Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Don't hug me; I'm scared
#312: Feb 22nd 2014 at 3:45:15 PM

Ladies and gentlemen, Ukraine is now officially at the verge of a civil war: parliament has deposed Yanukovych with a vote of no confidence and Yanukovych in turn has declared the parliament as illegitimate. In other words, Ukraine has two leaderships, neither of which recognize the other as legitimate - the exact same scenario as the one between China and Taiwan. I can only hope it won't end the same way.

edited 22nd Feb '14 3:49:53 PM by amitakartok

Nohbody "In distress", my ass. from Somewhere in Dixie Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Mu
"In distress", my ass.
#313: Feb 22nd 2014 at 5:13:02 PM

And just because things aren't already messy enough, there's the issue of US security assurances to the Ukraine in exchange for their handing over the former USSR's nukes in the Ukraine (at the time the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world) in The '90s.

Not that I expect the current POTUS to interpret things that way (the "why" being another thread entirely, so I won't get into it here), but it seems to me that at least theoretically any potential civil war there could possibly involve the US directly.

All your safe space are belong to Trump
demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#314: Feb 22nd 2014 at 5:49:45 PM

Not militarily, if that's what you are implying. But large scale violence breaking out across the Ukraine would have very serious consequences for our NATO allies in Western Europe (notably Poland, who shares a border with the Ukraine), so yes, if I were Obama I wouldn't be going to bed tonight.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#315: Feb 22nd 2014 at 6:55:36 PM

That security arrangement appears to be only against external threats. Though if Ukraine goes properly up shit creek than I could see some kind of EU-Russia peacekeeping force being put in, but the situation isn't that bad yet.

[up] Poland isn't the only one, Romania has a border about the same size and Slovakia and Hungary also have small borders.

edited 22nd Feb '14 6:57:59 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#316: Feb 22nd 2014 at 7:11:07 PM

I think that outright civil war is still unlikely. The military has called "not our business," there aren't any armed militias involved unless someone knows something I don't, and the whole thing has been declared by unarmed political movements.

The only likely case I can see for a civil war would be if the national elections go pro-Europe, the secessionists refuse to abide by them, and Kiev calls out the military to bring the rest of the country in line. And that'll be a rather short civil war unless Putin does something uncharacteristically stupid.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#317: Feb 22nd 2014 at 7:11:10 PM

Yeah, if the country goes from unrest to outright civil war there is no way the EU can't intervene. Even ignoring the sphere of influence issue, it could still spill over into other states they are obliged to defend.

I don't see American/NATO troops getting directly involved but peacekeeping units will likely be deployed if the violence gets more organized.

Hopefully both sides will wait for the new elections and move on from there. And the Ukrainian military is still a wild card, if an actual civil war breaks out it will be impossible for them stay completely neutral.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#318: Feb 22nd 2014 at 7:33:45 PM

It wont degenerate into outright civil war unless various military units start picking different sides. Then likely Russia will intervene.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#319: Feb 22nd 2014 at 7:34:30 PM

And if Russia and the EU aren't on the same page... that will get really nasty.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TheBatPencil from Glasgow, Scotland Since: May, 2011 Relationship Status: I'm just a hunk-a, hunk-a burnin' love
#320: Feb 22nd 2014 at 7:36:06 PM

There is a serious power vacuum at the top and no one to adequately fill it. Anything could potentially happen now.

The military will at some point have to decide who it recognizes at the legitimate head of state. There is no answer to that which will avoid alienating half of the country.

edited 22nd Feb '14 7:37:41 PM by TheBatPencil

And let us pray that come it may (As come it will for a' that)
demarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#321: Feb 22nd 2014 at 7:44:06 PM

Yeah, I agree. Which way the military goes is the whole ballgame. That probably depends on who is signing the checks, so the advantage right now is to the Westerners currently controlling Kiev. Now if Russia decides to bankroll Yanukovich in Kharkiv, then things could get interesting.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#322: Feb 22nd 2014 at 9:38:20 PM

If an election occurs, then the advantage is to the election winner even if the other side declares "rigged, we won't abide by it."

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#323: Feb 22nd 2014 at 10:00:23 PM

Well, they have to get that far. Which is going to interesting, to say the least.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
RavenWilder Since: Apr, 2009
#324: Feb 22nd 2014 at 10:17:17 PM

Why are so many Ukranians adamant that Yanukovich step down now? As I understand it, there's only a year 'til the next presidential elections, and Yanukovich had almost no shot at re-election even before all the violence started. What is it they're worried he'll do in the next 12 months?

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#325: Feb 22nd 2014 at 10:52:52 PM

Rig the election, obviously. The man in power has a big advantage.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.

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