So, er, I'm wondering — if the earlier polls are to be believed, and Lula da Silva could have beaten Bolsonaro handily if he'd been allowed to run... given the marigin of support for Bolsonaro, there must be a not-insignificant amount of people who would have voted for Lula as their first choice who are now supporting Bolsonaro due to his absence. And I must wonder how anyone can rationalise such a shift — if your preferred candidate was Lula, how can you possibly shift to a second choice that's radically opposed to him? Does anyone here know of any Lula supporters who shifted to Bolsonaro once Lula's candidacy was blocked?
Those polls are very shady. I wouldn't trust them much.
But supposing they're true, I guess the overlap there could be people just voting for what seemed familiar and changing their minds since, or something. Or maybe there's a large group of white votes, and the changes in the rest of the country affected how those would be counted.
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That share of Lula's voterbase didn't move towards Bosolini, they either split their vote between Haddad or Ciro or just didn't vote at all.
However, I've been having some talks with my brother and he told me how after looking deeper into Bolsonaro's policies and rhetoric, he is seeing himself voting for Haddad. Specially due how toxic his policies and rhetoric are and how his government proposals are not going to set a good precedent.
Specially how he wants to increase the amount of seats in the supreme court so he can nominate judges favorable to him.
Personally, this is going to be the first time I am voting for a PT candidate, on the principle that I'd rather have a non-radical and fairly predictable dipshit in government, that a radical who is going to change his position or push for stupid policies on a whim.
Inter arma enim silent legesSo this has been a weird few days. We're getting news of Haddad shooting up in polls and even having a fighting chance in the election, possibly even winning!
I'm always a bit suspicious whenever politics make sudden shifts and movements like that, so this looks odd to me. What does everybody think? Is there a real chance for things to go that way tomorrow?
No.
The Left is beyond desperate at this point, and I warned all of you that they pay the big media to manipulate stuff.
Seeing Mano Brown doing a massacre on his own side and calling them out for their methods was great. "No mood for celebratin'" indeed.
Haddad's chances are very slim by now.
For the ones who don't know Portuguese, the whole of Mano Brown's speech:
"Good night.
Well, I came here to represent myself. I didn't came to represent anyone else, right? I don't like that partying mood. I don't like it, I think that the blindness that affects them affects us too. That's dangerous. There's no reason to celebrate.
There's, I dunno, 30 million votes to reach. We have no expectations to reach those, to shorten that margin. I'm not pessimistic; I'm realistic. I'm seeing this. I can't believe people who once treated me with such affection, respected me, loved me, brought me my breakfast, washed my car, welcomed my kid in the hospital, turned into monsters. I just can't believe this. I can't believe that those people are... Not so bad.
If, in any moment, this people here's comms have failed, they are gonna pay for that. Communication is soul. If you can't talk the people's language, they ain't gonna understand, right?
Speaking flowers from PT to PT sympathizers is easy! There's a whole crowd that needs to be conquered, or we're falling into that chasm. And I had swore to myself that I would never speak in behalf of any politician! You got it? Politics has no rhyme, no swing, no balance, nothing that ever interests me. My stuff is music.
But I see couples separating, 35-year friendships ending... I got friends... If I can talk to them, it's fine for me, too. Or I'll stop talking to them, and fuck that, right? I have friends I can't even look in the eye anymore because of politics. Right?
I didn't come here to get votes, because I think this is already decided. Now, if you fail, you pay. Whoever makes mistakes has to pay, right? I don't like that celebratin' mood. What kills us is blindness and fanatism. If you ceased to understand the people, you're done! If we ever were the Workers Party, the people's party had to understand what the people wants! If you don't know, go back to base and get to learning.
That's my idea. Out."
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 1:58:02 PM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...Ok, let us please not go into accusatory stuff like that. We all know there are amazing levels of corruption going on in our country right now, but pointing fingers and saying stuff like "I warned you all" is a quick way for this discussion to get out of hand, so please, let's not do that, yeah? Things are tense enough as they are.
I'm just saying that 30 million votes don't self-materialize overnight. If they do, something very fishy has happened.
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...I know. And like I said, I find these kinds of sudden changes very odd, and don't really trust the polls very much. But we have to watch out with how we go about these discussions so we don't start something. If the last few weeks in Brazil have been any indication, things are already quite tense, and I think we would all like to avoid having the thread smited by mods.
Edited by TheLovecraftian on Oct 27th 2018 at 2:33:24 PM
Not just the thread, but any of us.
And yeah. These last few weeks took the toll on me. After tomorrow, I'll need a break, regardless of who gets elected.
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...What polls are these? Most of the ones I've seen have Bolso in the 55 to 58% margin.
Personally, I think we're fucked. Normally I don't like to doomsay, but Bolsonaro just has way too much momentum behind him to lose. Even if Haddad did somehow win I feel like we'd just be delaying the inevitable, and the right would just orchestrate some kind of coup or impeachment like they did the last time.
Unfortunately the only way people will learn that they bought a lie is to see the dumpster fire firsthand. The only thing is, at what point will we even be able to do anything about it? I honestly think this country is lost for the next 2 decades.
Edited by Draghinazzo on Oct 27th 2018 at 8:30:09 AM
We'd be fucked even if Haddad wins. It would not delay the inevitable, in fact, it would bring it about the same time Bolsonaro would.
Hell, the whole campaign for his second turn was him trying to censor everything that went against him and trying to take Bolsonaro down so he could win without going to the ballots.
Bolsonaro, meanwhile, basically just sat and watched. And answered to Haddad's attempt to take him down with one of his own, which the TSE apparently moved forward according to some news.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 11:01:06 AM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...The only real difference between the candidates right now, to my mind, is what kind of fucked we are depending on who wins. Personally, I prefer the kind of fucked Haddad would bring than the one Bolsonaro would, but at this point, that's all the difference there is. On a social level, we were screwed when the first turn ended. As the last three weeks have proven.
Plus, as you![]()
said, we can't really trust our politics to not redo the whole impeachment thing ever since they did it the first time. Things are very precarious right now.
Edited by TheLovecraftian on Oct 27th 2018 at 11:40:15 AM
What makes anyone think Haddad won't bring a much worse thing than Bolsonaro? I repeat: This is the guy who wrote a book on his taste for Socialism, for starters. I think people should have learned a big lesson with Nicolás Maduro, a dictator his very party staunchly supports.
For all the rotten stuff on Bolsonaro, the whole PT in comparison has become totally out of touch with reality, if the "Reason You Suck" Speech from Mano Brown is of any indication.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 11:59:54 AM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...I've actually read that book. Found it in my university library. It's not as bad as it sounds. It's mostly a theorem debating past failures of socialist countries, and if a functioning version of that could in theory be implemented in our modern society. It ends in him coming to the conclusion it wouldn't really work.
As for why people think Bolsonaro would be worse... his views on social programs, worker's rights and on most minorities in the country, as well as his rather extreme military views, do seem like a somewhat more pressing issue than whatever problems Haddad might bring to the table, at least to me.
To be honest, I find this fear that Brazil would become another Venezuela and PT would become akin to guys like Maduro or Chavez to be large exaggerations. Socialism doesn't work, and any group intending to hold some kind of political power knows that. Even Russia knows it. It's just not a concept that works. PT seems far more likely to me to just go on being annoyingly bureaucratic and corrupt as they've been these last few years.
Edited by TheLovecraftian on Oct 27th 2018 at 12:05:45 PM
The only ones I've seen sending arguments against Bolsonaro before you were the ones using his sewer mouth to claim the guy's gonna be some Hitler/Putin/InsertRacistSlashHomophobicSlashReligiousFanaticWitchHunterLeaderHere, which is why I can't seem to get a decent debate out of it.
I agree with you, most of Bolsonaro's plans are bad (for a Libertarian, even) and lends ideas for Populism. He has some good ideas (in a sea of bad ones, admittedly). But people tend to believe this whole inflation of "Gay Kit", "gay witch hunt", and the like and rather use this as their argument instead of his government plans.
I checked PT's plan and it looks real bad. I mean, why regulamentate the media? The biggest ones are already on political payroll, so this only means they want to move on to other things such as the Internet. And what about the risks of remaking the Constitution, knowing they can twist it to their tastes?
On Bolsonaro's side, this was an idea from Mourão, a guy his own whole party deems as insane (and shit, it was fun seeing Bolsonaro telling him to shut up on live TV). Hell, the Brazilian Military itself deems Mourão as insane. On PT, it's on their very government plans, as in they mean it.
And the craziest part of it all? It was the PT itself that made this man. By demonizing him as their nemesis, in the same manner of speech that Lula used to throw the whole Brazilian people against each other, they actually managed to make an imaginary nemesis materialize in that man, as people who were sick of the party commanding the country for 15 years saw in Bolsonaro the thing they wanted: PT's own antithesis.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 12:31:23 PM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...Bolsonaro's plans don't seem much better themselves. His intentions for education, privatization of several institutions that would basically hand them to the hands of known corrupt corporations, his fondness for the military and fondness of the last dictatorship, to name a few things, are to me far more concerning than anything PT has put forward as of yet. Also, regarding his attitude as you mentioned it, it can be easily seen why he would give that impression to people. He has not only openly declared himself as racist and homophobic, but has shown support to and from several racist, homophobic and mysoginistic groups, and endorsed the violence and chaos of the last few weeks, even inciting some of it through his rethoric, alongside his son and Mourão.
Even putting these things aside, I find it hard to trust a man with those views and that temperament with such an important position of power. We've seen Trump in the US over the last few years, and that guy carries a lot less bite and a bit less bark than Bolsonaro. I genuinely don't think the man responsible for that infamous comment about a fellow politician "not being worth enough to rape" would make a good president, in times of peace or in times of crisis.
As for PT... yeah. Their intentions are worrying. I don't find the media thing so shady since Globo has been a constant thorn on their side since Lula's first term, and they have enough personal power to be an actual political force, but the bit about the constitution is an issue. Most of PT's voter base has been angry at them for leaning more and more to the right-wing side of things, and I fear that them messing with the constitution would lead to bad places on that front.
But honestly, I still find they would be better, if only vecause despite all that they still seem more respectful of the government and the democracy and it's processes than Bolsonaro seems to be. It's not a large difference, mind, but I think it's there, and that it's a very important one.
I'm pretty sure he was referring to the candidate's sewer mouth, which having seen the guy talk, I find it a fair and rather neutral description of it. I would have used a harsher term myself, in fact.
Edited by TheLovecraftian on Oct 27th 2018 at 12:53:07 PM
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I meant Bolsonaro's sewer mouth. I don't see anyone here saying the stuff he said in his interviews.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 12:57:29 PM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...I agree with your statement, but not with your reasoning. It was indeed the left that made this, but I don't think this falls on PT's shoulders alone. I find it's more generalized than that.
Sometime after Lula's first term, the left and center wings, and pretty much the population as a majority, seemed to decide it had won some kind of war, and started acting as if any kind of right-wing sentiment was by itself a negative thing. A lot like what happened in the United States. That gave way for people in the right, or even just vaguely in that direction, to feel marginalized, which opened up the chance for someone like Bolsonaro to swoop in with a more inflammatory rethoric and create a whole power base out of that, and now neither side wants to bend.
It's no coincidence you were talking about having difficulties having civil debates with people. It's the whole reason I asked around to get this thread in the first place, to see if I could help instigate that civilized debate somewhere. People in Brazil are being politically stubborn to the point of idiocy by not accepting the possibility of debate, and it's harming us both politically and socially. The effects of that are going to be felt for devades still.
Edited by TheLovecraftian on Oct 27th 2018 at 1:05:46 PM
Indeed. I feel the whole people were infantilized through the last years to the point they need to learn to interact with other people again. Maybe even me included, if I think a bit about it. The whole fighting around these elections got me insanely weary. I mean, I lost an 8-yr friendship to politics.
This made me realize just how insane all of this has become, and I didn't even pick either side. I mean, I'm Libertarian, which is the closest Brazil has to Taking a Third Option, and I heavily feel the effects of this whole war.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 1:11:50 PM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...I generally think of myself as center-left, even if that term has mostly lost significance in Brazil. It mostly means I waste my time being the only one in my circle of friends that tells others to wait and listen before judging. But I definitely feel what you're saying. I have luckily not lost any friendships to this election, but I have completely failed at trying to get the people around me to sit down and listen to the other side before outright demonizing them.
Brazil, as a whole, has gone too politically extreme, in both sides. And I fear people won't be learning any lessons anytime soon.
If things were sane right now, the second turn would probably be Ciro vs Alckmin. Which would be boring, yes, but also far less chaotic.
Edited by TheLovecraftian on Oct 27th 2018 at 1:19:19 PM
Either Ciro Vs. Alckmin or Ciro Vs. Amoedo in my opinion. I see people who really wanted a second turn between Ciro and Amoedo. But oh, well. The two of us aren't the other two hundred million Brazilians at the end of the day. And to think that by 2016 I didn't even expect Bolsonaro to run in 2018, rather thinking he would only be able to run for President in 2022.
So I agree with you. Things are not sane with these elections. Actually, they already weren't in 2014 if you think about it.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 27th 2018 at 1:24:05 PM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...

Out of hand doesn't even start to describe Brazilians right now. Trust me.
EDIT: Hell of a page topper.
Edited by ZeroDozer on Oct 22nd 2018 at 3:11:06 PM
Growing up, it's like a civil war, don't turn away, it's something you can't ignore...