(Assuming you are in Seoul or its suburbs)
The Seoul National University observatory
and the Nowon Cosmos Science Center
have events where members of the public can visit and see through their telescopes.
It takes a lot of practice to become familiar enough with the night sky to use it for navigation.
I almost forgot another launch scheduled for tonight: Space One's KAIROS Flight 2
with a payload of five tech demonstration satellites. Liftoff is scheduled for 02:00 UTC.
Space One is a private Japanese company and KAIROS is a four-stage rocket with three solid-fuel stages and one liquid stage, capable of carrying 250 kg to low Earth orbit. Its first launch attempt in March failed five seconds in when the first stage underperformed and triggered the automatic flight termination system. Videos of the failed launch went viral on social media.
Let's hope this one does better.
Curses! It scrubbed. Well, I'll post when they try again.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 18th 2024 at 9:27:53 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Looks like Kessler Syndrome is another step closer.
Hope shines brightest in the darkest timesLeaving aside the question of whether I trust any particular administration, in any country, to execute warfare responsibly, there are many ways to contest space without creating a Kessler syndrome event.
Even if kinetic weapons are used, it's important to remember that such a thing — a complete loss of access to space — is impossible in the 500-kilometer band of low Earth orbit because any debris there will deorbit relatively quickly: within a few years. That's why the ISS is able to operate safely, and why Starlink doesn't represent a Kessler threat.
If we remember, the Polaris Dawn mission took a major risk in raising its apogee to 1400 km because the orbital debris environment there is much more dangerous. Destroying satellites in the 700 to 2000 km band is the worst because that debris will remain in orbit for up to thousands of years. How you get a Kessler syndrome is to hit those satellites, so their fragments obliterate everything below them.
The rumored Russian plan to place a nuclear anti-satellite weapon in LEO is horrifying not just because of the escalation it would represent but because it would do what kinetic weapons wouldn't: disable that lower orbital band with ionizing radiation.
There are many ways to kill satellites that don't involve breaking them up. The proposal to use laser or EMP weapons to blind them or disable their systems is technically sound and would largely avoid debris-shedding events. Apparently, there are also plans to put vehicles in orbit that could move defensively against attempts to approach satellites to capture or non-violently disable them.
Those are all fairly sound and wouldn't involve a direct escalation.
SpaceX is going for the RRT-1 mission
again tonight, with liftoff targeted for 00:52 UTC. Weather remains a watch item. Watch here.
The mission was successful through first stage landing. We did not get views of the payload.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 16th 2024 at 8:12:46 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Detonating a nuke in space is dangerous not just because it can disable satellites, but it can also disrupt electrical networks on Earth, just like a severe solar storm. Here is a video about it.
Yes, the Americans tried it.
Fjón þvæ ég af mér fjanda minna rán og reiði ríkra manna.
Not as easily as you'd think. It might make it fragment even further, but to deorbit, you'll need to slow it down. With a laser, you might try to aim at the correct side so that outgassing will slow it down, but good luck trying it with something that tumbles uncontrollably.
There are several proposed ways of dealing with space debris, none of them practical. One is to make some large canopy to catch objects, which might work for small fragments, but not for anything larger, and would need a really big canopy to be effective. Another is to release a lot of gas to increase drag, but that's really not practical outside of LEO. Also, any of these techniques would be prohibitively expensive. The most practical method is to rendezvous with the object, attach to it and deorbit it with a rocket, but that would only work with larger pieces such as defunct satellites. If you need to clean up after a collision, that won't work.
Fjón þvæ ég af mér fjanda minna rán og reiði ríkra manna.Nets and aerogels have indeed been proposed. I think that laser ablation is the most likely method to work for micrometeoroid debris because you don't need to induce a lot of drag to get something to reenter much more quickly than it would have otherwise.
Meanwhile, rendezvous and capture for large objects is the best way to keep more debris from forming. This has been proposed as a use case for Starship: send up one with a "chomper" style payload bay and have it gobble up a satellite or rocket stage, then deorbit and land.
More practically, we can deploy fleets of small, efficient deorbit vehicles in a Starship payload bay.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Minor news dump incoming...
RRT-1 Mission Debrief
SpaceNews: SpaceX launches U.S. Space Force ‘rapid response’ GPS missionThat Falcon 9 that lifted off yesterday was indeed carrying a GPS satellite for the US Space Force. The "RRT" initialism stands for "Rapid Response Trailblazer", which is an effort to accelerate the pace of national security launches.
In this case, the GPS III SV-07 satellite was originally designated to fly on ULA's Vulcan in late 2025. However, it was reassigned to Falcon 9 this summer and was prepared and launched within six months from the contract signature. While lack of confidence in Vulcan's flight schedule was a factor, the primary rationale was to show that such a mission could be executed very quickly (in traditional terms).
Vulcan will instead get to launch GPS III SV-08, 09, and 10.
CRS-31 Departs ISS
A SpaceX Dragon spacecraft departed the ISS at 16:05 UTC yesterday carrying science experiments for return to Earth. It is scheduled to splash down today. (Edit: And did so successfully.)
ESA IRIS² constellation
ESA: ESA to support the development of EU’s secure communication satellites system![]()
SpaceNews: Europe signs contracts for IRIS² constellation
Looks like the EU is ready to start working on its planned IRIS² constellation, which is basically its version of Starlink. The first launch is planned for 2029, using whatever vehicle comes after Ariane 6.
The total cost is projected to be €10.6 billion for 300 satellites, or €35 million per satellite. Former SpaceX lead engineer Tom Mueller noted
that $35 million would buy 200 of the Gen-1 Starlink satellites (not accounting for fixed and amortized development costs).
Napkin math suggests that the internal cost to SpaceX for each Starlink launch is somewhere between $30 and 40 million, including the rocket and payload, which would put the marginal cost per satellite at $1.25 to 2 million. While this is more expensive per unit than the v1 Starlinks, each v2 has over four times the capacity.
You okay over there, Europe? Speaking of...
ESA calls for reusable rockets. Again.
European Spaceflight: Third Time’s the Charm? ESA Once Again Publishes 60T Rocket Study Call
ESA has all but publicly said that Ariane 6 is a failure in terms of achieving the bloc's space goals — after one flight, no less — so it wants private industry to come to the rescue with a reusable super-heavy-lift rocket. To that end, it is committing a few million euros for companies that want to throw their hats in the ring.
You okay over there, Europe?
Starship Updates
Last week, SpaceX conducted static fire tests of both the booster
and ship
for Flight 7. With the successful completion of these milestones, the vehicles will now be rolled back for final preparations.
There is still no official word on the previously announced target of January 11 for Flight 7, but the hardware seems like it's going to be ready.
New Glenn Updates
Dave Limp posted on X
that New Glenn is cleared to complete a wet dress rehearsal this week. He didn't directly state that FAA approval was granted for a hot fire test, indicating that the paperwork may still be in progress.
Blue Origin is desperately trying to get a launch in before the end of the year. The company seems to believe that its hardware is ready, but licensing is the long tail, as it has been in the past for Starship and several other launch operators.
Starbase seeks to incorporate
AP News (among many others): SpaceX wants to make Starbase a new Texas city. Here’s how it could happen
SpaceX is seeking to incorporate Starbase, Texas as an official city and has filed a petition with a judge to get that started. Texas law allows an area with between 201 and 4,999 residents to seek incorporation. The article cites a study finding that over 3,400 employees and contractors work at the site.
Incorporation would improve the facility's ability to manage its own infrastructure. The company claims that faster access to utilities and zoning (among other things) are needed to provide attractive living conditions for all of those people.
Launch Schedule Updates
SpaceX is now at 128 launches for the year (not counting Starship) and is racing weather to complete its 2024 manifest. Up next are:
- O3b mPOWER 7 & 8
, today at 20:56 UTC. This will be the first launch of Falcon 9 booster B1090.
- KAIROS Flight 2
, tomorrow morning at 02:00 UTC. The launch was scrubbed last week.
- "Owl The Way Up"
on Electron at 14:00 UTC on Thursday.
- Bandwagon-2
aboard Falcon 9 on Friday at 11:53 UTC.
- Astranis Block 2 Mission
aboard Falcon 9 on Saturday at 03:39 UTC.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 18th 2024 at 9:26:38 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Tune in here (X)
to watch SpaceX launch the O3b mPOWER 7 & 8 mission to a medium Earth orbit. Weather is currently marginal for liftoff at 22:26 UTC. Falcon 9 booster B1090 is making its first flight and will attempt a downrange landing on Just Read The Instructions.
Edit: The mission was successful.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 17th 2024 at 10:17:20 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"I missed the notification for KAIROS Flight 2, so I wasn't able to watch it live. As we may recall, this is a small-lift rocket by private Japanese company Space One. Today was a test flight carrying some tech demonstration payloads.
Apparently, the vehicle lost attitude control somewhere around the separation of the first stage, resulting in the failure of the mission. This can be seen at around 1:22:00 on the broadcast. As the narration was in Japanese, we'll need to wait for translations to come in for full details.
Edit: Somehow the livestream VOD got replaced with an entirely different video, so I've removed it.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 18th 2024 at 9:05:14 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Minor note: The FAA has licensed Starship Flight 7
. I tried to get a direct link, but the FAA's document system appears to be down.
The license is for "multiple missions" using the Flight 7 profile, although I have my doubts that SpaceX will make use of the extension given how rapidly they're iterating.
That January 11 date is looking more likely every day. Now we need to look out for NOTAMs and other official notices.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Encapsulation and return was a capability of the Space Shuttle as well (and is rumored to have been done to a Soviet satellite, in secret). The idea isn't new. While it's (relatively) easy to rendezvous with a large object in space and change its velocity enough for it to deorbit and burn up, bringing it home intact is a much more difficult task.
Obviously, you need an orbital vehicle that is large enough for the job and capable of safe reentry, but that's just the first part. Satellites and rocket stages aren't designed with the idea that they might be grabbed, packed up in a payload bay, and subjected to reentry forces. They may have pressure vessels, propellant, batteries, and other volatile components that could burn or explode. Securing them well enough to prevent shifting and maintaining a stable center of mass through descent are additional considerations, plus embrittlement due to long-term exposure to vacuum and radiation.
Also, do you put people on such a mission, or do you attempt it robotically? If the latter, how do you account for all of the potential variables and failure states? Developing and testing that hardware would be a nightmare.
Many people have suggested that we could, for example, bring the Hubble Space Telescope home so it can be given its proper place in a museum, but it would probably be cheaper to build a new one for that specific purpose, even if Starship becomes operational and works precisely as advertised.
Edit: Speaking of Hubble, many in the space community believe that Jared Isaacman's appointment as NASA administrator (should he be confirmed) is a signal that the Dragon servicing mission for the venerable telescope may be back on the table. NASA leadership rejected the proposal this year because of the risk, but Polaris Dawn proved that a private EVA is feasible.
The other main thing that NASA was worried about was contamination of Hubble's optics with the exhaust from the servicing vehicle's propellant system, but that is kind of moot if the thing deorbits and burns up.
The only negative factor is that Isaacman would (presumably) not be able to fly such a mission himself, as he would not have time to train for it even if he would be allowed to go. So, the Polaris program will be in an indefinite state for the next four years.
Edit: Reporting now says
that Space One's KAIROS rocket was terminated during flight yesterday as "continued flight was not feasible".
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 18th 2024 at 10:05:45 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"JWST has some updates on TRAPPIST-1b
, its reflectance is a bit too high. That offers two possibilities, either:
- TRAPPIST-1b is volcanically or geologically active, as expected given the tidal effects.
- TRAPPIST-1b has an atmosphere after all, with hazes.
Unfortunately, with the data so far we can't tell which it is.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard FeynmanNASA Spaceflight: 🚀 Blue Origin Tests New Glenn Full Stack for Maiden Flight
Looks like we're getting that hot fire test of New Glenn. First one ever, so it's worth tuning in to or at least keeping an eye on.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"So, New Glenn did not hot fire today, but it was probably a wet dress rehearsal.
Space Debris
Since we were just talking about space debris and Kessler syndrome, we lost another one. US Space Command posted on X
that they tracked the breakup of DMSP 5D-2 F14, a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
satellite launched in 1997 into polar orbit and decommissioned in 2020.
A "low-velocity fragmentation event" was recorded at 840 km altitude, meaning that debris will be in orbit for up to a century. I will once again note that Starlink satellites, which are frequently cited as "contributing to space junk", operate at much lower altitudes and will be gone in five years or so even if they fail or break up.
It's these older vehicles that operate at higher altitudes and may still have battery energy or unburnt propellant on board that pose the highest risk. This isn't even the first DMSP satellite to explode in orbit.
We need to actively deorbit these things when we're done with them or put them in "graveyard" orbits that pose no risk. Leaving them up there like this is the worst of all possible worlds.
Vast to fly astronauts with SpaceX
Looks like Axiom isn't the only commercial customer for ISS missions aboard Dragon anymore. Vast, which is building its own space stations for NASA's Commercial Lunar Destinations contract (CLD), plans to fly its own astronauts to the ISS to gain experience with operating crewed missions in orbit.
The press release doesn't say when the missions will occur, only that they will be after Haven-1 launches and are contingent on NASA approval. The supply of Private Astronaut Missions (PAMs) available on the ISS' schedule is limited and is apparently soon to be overbooked.
Chiquita's Food Bank Deal
So, that "secret mission" that Chiquita's Twitter account was posting about was in fact
a food bank delivery
in the Brownsville area. I guess they won't be putting a few tons of bananas on a future Starship, as fun as that might be.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 20th 2024 at 9:04:34 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"With clearing up space junk, what’s the viability of using a magnet to attract a bunch of the junk and then de orbit it in bulk rather than trying to capture the stuff physically? That seems like it’d be a good way of grabbing micro-debris in particular.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranPlus, the range of magnets is super low. Magnetic attraction falls as the fourth power of distance, so you have to get incredibly close to the debris to collect it even if it's ferromagnetic. That or you need a magnetic field so powerful that you'd erase every hard drive within a thousand kilometers.
Rocket Lab is launching the "Owl the Way Up" mission at... 15:03 UTC as of this posting, but it could slip further. This is another batch of Earth-observation satellites from Synspective. Watch here.
Edit: Looks like it scrubbed, so never mind.
Up next tonight is a Falcon 9 carrying the Astranis Block 2 Mission
, with liftoff targeted for 03:39 UTC.
Edited by Fighteer on Dec 20th 2024 at 9:51:56 AM
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

Random musing:
Over the past couple of years, I've been taking more and more interest in astronomy (and science in general, really).
I don't understand the complexity of astrophysics just yet, but I did make a habit of stargazing every night.
Sadly, I live in a pretty populated area of a developed Asian country so I can't see many stars...except this one really bright star.
And I was like, ooh, is that the North Star? That's the North Star, right? Yeah, that's gotta be the North Star!
Nope, it turns out I was actually seeing the Serius.![[lol] [lol]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/lol2v12_4863.png)
...I would've been a terrible sailor/navigator/etc.![[lol] [lol]](https://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/lol2v12_4863.png)
Continuously reading, studying, and (hopefully) growing.