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Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4401: Dec 3rd 2019 at 7:01:27 AM

A couple of launch schedule notes for this week and beyond, plus news items...

  • SpaceX's CRS-19 mission is still scheduled for Dec 4 at 17:51 UTC (12:51 PM EST).
  • Rocket Lab's "Running out of Fingers" mission has been bumped to NET Dec 6 at 7:56 UTC (2:56 AM EST) while they work on ground support equipment issues.
  • Russia's Progress MS-13 (ISS resupply) mission is scheduled for Dec 6 at 9:34 UTC (4:34 AM EST).
  • Russia's Glonass-M No. 59 mission is scheduled for Dec 10 at 8:30 UTC (3:30 AM EST).
  • India's RISAT-2BR1 mission is scheduled for Dec 11 at 9:30 UTC (4:30 AM EST).
  • SpaceX's JCSAT-18/KACIFIC-1 mission is scheduled for Dec 16.
  • Boeing's Starliner orbital flight test (OFT) has been bumped to Dec 19 due to an issue with the Atlas V rocket.
  • SpaceX's Starlink-2 and Crew Dragon IFA missions are still tentatively scheduled for late December, but have no specific dates yet.

SpaceX Starship

According to multiple sources, SpaceX is shutting down its Cocoa Beach facility in Florida which has, until now, been used for parallel development of the Mk2 Starship prototype. Various reasons are given but the biggest is practicality: transporting rocket hardware from the facility to the launch site at Cape Canaveral is extremely difficult, requiring major road closures and the use of barges.

A significant chunk of the hardware at the Cocoa site will be transported to Boca Chica in Texas, which is stepping up work in preparation for building of the Mk3 prototype, expected to be the first to actually fly. Some will be going to a new facility at Roberts Road, much closer to the Florida launch site.

It's definitely looking like SpaceX is revising its goals for Starship development. The failure of the Mk1 prototype in pressure testing has highlighted the risks with steel welds, which often require x-ray inspection to determine their integrity. It wants to address this problem in part by rolling complete rings using an on-site press, but a lot of those rings have had to be discarded because they are not of uniform diameter. I guess building a rocket in a field isn't as easy as Elon thought it would be, but this is all part of the learning process.

(Twitter)

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 3rd 2019 at 11:14:07 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4402: Dec 3rd 2019 at 6:27:28 PM

Correction to the above story: per this tweet, SpaceX clarified that it did not lay off any workers; personnel at Cocoa were reassigned to Boca Chica or Kennedy Space Center. This attention to their social media space is gratifying.

For your daily dose of awesome, check out this sped-up footage of a Falcon 9 lifting off over Los Angeles just after sunset [1]. In case you're wondering what's going on there, the rocket is rising from the Earth's shadow into sunlight. The red color is due to the low angle of the sun, changing to blue-white as the rocket and its exhaust rise into full illumination. As this is against a dark sky, the entire exhaust plume is brilliantly lit.

This seems to be a relatively common event during launches from Vandenberg and has resulted in more than one rash of UFO reports and related hilarity.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4403: Dec 4th 2019 at 9:05:56 AM

  • SpaceX's CRS-19 mission was scrubbed due to winds. The next attempt will be Dec 5 at 17:29 UTC (12:29 PM EST). (Twitter)

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 4th 2019 at 12:33:57 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4404: Dec 5th 2019 at 9:52:28 AM

  • SpaceX's CRS-19 mission launched on time. The liftoff, ascent, booster landing, and Dragon capsule deployment were all nominal. (Official livestream)

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 5th 2019 at 12:52:43 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4405: Dec 6th 2019 at 3:26:04 AM

  • Rocket Lab's 'Running Out of Fingers' mission was successful (Official livestream). I didn't watch it live because I was asleep. Peter Beck, Rocket Lab CEO, tweeted that all objectives were met, including getting their booster to reenter safely and retrieving telemetry. [1] [2] It also did one of those lovely "sunset plume" things where the exhaust became illuminated by the sun as it ascended. [3]

  • Russia's Progress MS-13 mission was successful as well (NASA tweet with link to news article). The Progress craft is on its way to dock with the ISS, only a day behind SpaceX's Dragon. The astronauts will be busy.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 9th 2019 at 7:27:37 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4406: Dec 6th 2019 at 7:52:06 PM

This is fun. NASA popped a tank. Deliberately, of course. This Twitter post from NASA Marshall shows the aftermath of a over-pressurization test of the liquid hydrogen (LH2) tank test article for SLS. They ran it at 260% of operating pressure for five hours before it ruptured. I wish I could have been there to hear that boom.

Anyway, this is not a problem, but rather a part of standard development protocol. The idea is to test to destruction to see where failures occur, and then use that to inform future builds. SpaceX does it too, even though it's not clear that Starship Mk1's pop-top antics were intended to happen exactly in that way.


Edit: Just when I thought I was done posting news, we have an official date for SpaceX's in-flight abort test for Crew Dragon: NET January 4 (NASA tweet). Many people have been wondering if this critical test would happen by the end of the year, with an apparent (accidental?) mention of February by the announcer in the CRS-19 livestream, and now it seems that was either misinformed or referring to a different mission, such as the actual crewed flight.

We've also heard, although I don't have the post handy, that SpaceX has completed seven successful drop tests of its new parachute system (the whole thing, not just individual chutes), out of the ten required by NASA for certification.

Assuming nothing goes wrong, with the completion of IFA and the parachute tests, Crew Dragon will have met all requirements and can begin flying crew, most likely in Q1 2020.

Meanwhile, Boeing just has to complete Starliner's orbital flight test (currently scheduled NET December 19 20 per this recent tweet) to meet its requirements for the first crewed mission. This race is so close that it makes me kind of giddy.


In more news that combines silliness with slight overtones of unease, Russia has been trolling both Starliner and Crew Dragon. (Ars Technica)

In the case of Starliner, the Roscosmos-affiliated Glavkosmos account taunted the Boeing-built capsule for flying to space atop an Atlas V rocket powered by Russian-built engines (the RD-180). For Crew Dragon, the Russian agency warned about the "dangers" of the spacecraft and made unsubstantiated claims about an odor emitted by it on the station.

It's worth noting that Russia stands to lose several hundred million dollars per year of desperately needed cash for its space program once NASA transitions to U.S. rockets for its manned flights to the ISS.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 9th 2019 at 7:26:50 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4407: Dec 9th 2019 at 4:07:00 AM

Fighteer's weekly launch report, December 9 2019 edition...

International Space Station

  • Both Dragon CRS-19 [1] [2] and Progress MS-13 [3] [4] have docked (or berthed, in Dragon's case) at the ISS. The parking lot is pretty much full; the last space will be taken by Starliner in its OFT.

Blue Origin

  • Blue Origin is expected to fly its 100th commercial payload aboard its New Shepard suborbital rocket Tuesday December 10 at 14:30 UTC (8:30 AM CST) [5]. SpaceX has made booster landings into a seeming routine these days, but Blue Origin deserves credit for doing it first, even though its hardware isn't intended for orbit (yet).

  • Jeff Bezos' rich baby has been quiet lately, as it is wont to, but has been making enormous progress on the Cape Canaveral launch site for its upcoming New Glenn rocket. Images taken recently show the water tower and horizontal integration facility [6]. I keep hearing 2021 as the year when New Glenn is expected to start flying. It's going to be exciting to see another company attempting vertical takeoff and landing of orbital boosters, never mind adding more heavy lift capability to the market.

SpaceX

  • Hardware has begun arriving at Boca Chica for the Starship Mk3 build. A lot of this equipment was previously at Cocoa Beach, FL. SpaceX intends to focus its development efforts on its third prototype, suspending operations in Florida until the new facility at Roberts Road is up and running.This footage taken by @Bocachicagal and uploaded by NASASpaceFlight shows the arrival of parts and the continued disassembly of "Starpopper", as the Mk1 prototype was affectionately named.

SLS

  • NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine is, right now (9:30 AM EST), holding a press conference announcing the completion of the first SLS core stage at NASA's Michoud Assembly Facility [7]. It's streaming on NASA Live; I am not going to liveblog the event but will link a news summary once it's available.
    • One note that I will drop here is that Bridenstine expressed willingness to use third-party launch vehicles for manned landings on the Moon if Congress doesn't come up with the continued funding for SLS. That's quite the admission, but more to the point it feels like a veiled threat. "If you're so committed to jobs in Alabama, Sen. Shelby, get us our damn money."
    • Okay, one more note. The audio feed is terrible. What the hell, guys? You can build rockets but can't livestream without sound dropping out.

Upcoming launches

  • Russia: Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat-M | Glonass-M No. 59: December 10, 2019 8:59 UTC (3:59 AM EST)
  • Blue Origin: New Shepard: December 10, 2019 14:30 UTC (9:30 AM EST)
  • India: PSLV-QL | RISAT-2BR1 & others: December 11, 2019 9:55 UTC (4:55 AM EST)
  • China: Long March 3B/YZ-1 | Beidou-3 M19 & M20: December 16, 2019
    • Although nobody asked me, Beidou is China's own version of GPS. I guess they don't want the US to monopolize this capability. Russia is doing something equivalent with its Glonass satellites.
  • SpaceX: Falcon 9 Block 5 | JCSAT-18/KACIFIC-1: December 17, 2019
  • Russia: Soyuz STA/Fregat | CSG-1 & CHEOPS: December 17, 2019 8:54:20 UTC (3:54 AM EST)
  • China: Long March 4B | CBERS-4A: December 20, 2019 3:21 UTC (Dec 19 10:21 PM EST)
  • Boeing: Atlas V N22 | CST-100 Starliner Orbital Flight Test (Uncrewed): December 20, 2019 11:36 UTC (6:36 AM EST)

I know that launch windows for flights to the ISS are determined by orbital mechanics and not prime viewing hours, but 6:36 AM is a bit early for me to be tuning in for Starliner's OFT, and it'll be even worse for people to the west. Oh, well.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 9th 2019 at 9:47:36 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4408: Dec 9th 2019 at 6:42:07 PM

Addenda:

  • NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine tweeted a video of the SLS hydrogen tank bursting during its destructive testing [1]. Warning: it's loud, and not to be listened to with headphones at full volume. As a reminder, this was intentional.

  • After the successful launch of Rocket Lab's 10th Electron mission last week, we found out that they were also using a new automatic flight termination system, or AFTS, becoming only the second launch provider in the world (behind SpaceX) to use the technology [2]. Most flight termination systems are manual, under the direct control of one or more human operators, who will press what is presumably a Big Red Button to destroy a malfunctioning or off-course rocket. AFTS uses the flight computer to detect abnormal conditions with a much faster response time than a human.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 9th 2019 at 9:55:13 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4409: Dec 10th 2019 at 4:07:49 AM

I'm posting here to drop a link to Blue Origin's New Shepard NS-12 mission live webcast, which should start at 11 AM EST (10 AM CST) for a liftoff at 11:30/10:30. It will be the sixth flight of this particular rocket, setting a reuse record for the company. (Edited: the launch was delayed by 2 hours due to weather.)

I misstated something in an earlier post. New Shepard has not made 100 flights. Rather, this flight will mark the 100th discrete customer payload that has flown on the rocket. Since each flight can carry payloads from many different customers, the math works out.

New Shepard is a suborbital rocket. Its mission is to ascend vertically to deliver its payload capsule past the Karman Line (100 km altitude), experiencing several minutes of freefall before parachuting safely back to the ground. This can provide valuable data for scientific experiments, and is expected to take passengers for space tourism at some point in the future. The booster itself lands vertically for reuse.

Blue Origin also hopes to human certify the rocket with this flight.


Edited to update launch time and add a news item:

  • The Soyuz launch this morning was aborted at T-60 seconds for an as yet undisclosed reason. [1]

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 10th 2019 at 9:19:20 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4410: Dec 10th 2019 at 8:46:19 AM

  • Blue Origin scrubbed the NS-12 launch due to weather. Next opportunity is tomorrow, time TBD. [1]

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4411: Dec 11th 2019 at 6:24:15 AM

  • Russia: Soyuz 2.1b/Fregat-M | Glonass-M No. 59: The launch was successful this morning, after yesterday's last-minute abort.
  • India: PSLV-QL | RISAT-2BR1 & others: The launch was successful this morning.

  • Rocket Lab is officially opening its new launch facility (LC-2) in the Florida Space Coast tomorrow. They will be hosting a webcast discussing the facility soon. [1]

  • Blue Origin's NS-12 webcast is expected to start at 16:00 UTC (11 AM EST, 10 AM CST) today, with liftoff a half-hour later. It's the same link as yesterday, here. That said, they tweeted an hour ago [2] about heavy fog causing a weather hold, so we'll see.

Edit: Blue Origin NS-12 is go for launch at 11:43 AM CST (12:43 EST, 17:43 UTC).

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 11th 2019 at 12:10:58 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4412: Dec 11th 2019 at 10:59:54 AM

Blue Origin's NS-12 mission was successful! It took me a while to get over the feeling that the announcers on the webcast were talking down to the audience; it was probably for the benefit of the students whose postcards were on the flight. I was also amused by the fact that Blue Origin displays its telemetry data in Imperial units.

Still, a good flight, and the first-ever sixth launch and landing of a rocket booster.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 11th 2019 at 2:00:17 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
KazuyaProta Shin Megami Tensei IV from A Industrial Farm Since: Jan, 2015 Relationship Status: [TOP SECRET]
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4414: Dec 12th 2019 at 8:36:09 AM

  • Rocket Lab's LC-2 opening press conference is live now (Twitter link). I'm not watching it, but according to some tweets I've seen, they're announcing their first launch from U.S. soil this coming Spring [1].

NASA Artemis

The Washington Post published an article this week titled "Boeing, NASA clash over push for Congress to fund new stage for moon rocket".

The major point is that Boeing wants to accelerate development of the Exploration Upper Stage (EUS) for SLS, which will substantially increase the payload capacity of the rocket (at a higher cost, naturally), and believes it can be ready for the Artemis III mission in 2024. NASA disagrees and does not want to condition the Artemis program on development of EUS, fearing that Boeing's continued cost overruns and delays could mean it will miss its Moon landing target.

Jim Bridenstine told the Washington Post directly, "NASA believes that there is tremendous value in the Exploration Upper Stage, but no one at NASA believes it will be available by Artemis III."

This very public feud between NASA and its most important contractor highlights just how much influence Boeing wields in the space program. Not directly mentioned in the article but hanging over the controversy is the fact that NASA's own staff have repeatedly said that they would prefer to use commercial rockets for as much of the Artemis program as possible due to their lower cost and higher availability.

SLS is not expected to fly before 2021 and will at best be capable of one mission per year. Meanwhile, Delta IV Heavy and Falcon Heavy are flight-proven systems that are significantly cheaper, despite having lower payload capacity to the Moon. In addition, both SpaceX and Blue Origin are developing next-generation heavy-lift rockets that are expected to be cheaper than SLS and could enter service sooner.

As an aside, the hardware alone for SLS Block 1 (without EUS) is estimated to cost around $1 billion. EUS is projected to cost around $900 million, nearly doubling the price of SLS Block 1.1. Add fixed costs for annual launches and each mission could cost a cool three billion dollars. Amortize development costs and it's up to five. That is not only insane but utterly unsustainable.

Compare options:

  • SLS Block 1: $1 billion marginal cost per launch, $2 billion with fixed costs. Available 2021.
  • SLS Block 1.1: $2 billion marginal cost per launch, $3 billion with fixed costs. Available ???
  • Delta IV Heavy: $500 million per launch. Available now*.
  • Falcon Heavy: $150 million per launch (in expendable mode). Available now*.
  • New Glenn: Pricing has not been disclosed. Available 2021.
  • Starship: As low as $2 million per launch (fully reusable). Available 2021.

* Noting for thoroughness that neither Delta IV Heavy nor Falcon Heavy has completed human certification by NASA; then again, neither has SLS.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 12th 2019 at 2:22:42 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4415: Dec 14th 2019 at 8:30:41 PM

NASA Commercial Crew Program

This thing is really heating up. There's not really any new news, but I felt like indulging myself by crawling through Twitter and other sources. As of right now, everything is still on schedule.

.

Boeing will perform the Orbital Flight Test (OFT) of its CST-100 Starliner capsule on Friday, December 20 at 6:36 AM EST (11:36 UTC) atop an Atlas V N22 rocket with a Centaur upper stage. The "N22" designation indicates a configuration with two solid rocket boosters, two upper-stage engines, and no fairing. The vehicle has been undergoing flight readiness testing including a wet dress rehearsal, with all systems go.

The mission is expected to last six days. The Starliner capsule will raise its orbit, dock with the ISS, and then return to Earth. Following successful completion of the OFT, Boeing will begin preparing for its first crewed launch, whose date has not been announced. Since the Atlas rocket is not reusable, a new one has to be built for each mission.


SpaceX will perform the In-Flight Abort (IFA) of its Crew Dragon capsule on Saturday, January 4. I'm finally seeing some more information about the flight configuration [1]. Crew Dragon SN 205 will launch atop Falcon 9 B1046.4, a veteran booster that will sacrifice itself for the test. To provide realism, the rocket will have a fully fueled upper stage but a mass simulator in place of the Merlin 1D Vacuum engine.

The booster will shut down its engines near max-Q, triggering the auto abort sequence of the capsule. With no way to safely land carrying an upper stage, the booster will break up over water. SpaceX plans to recover any floating debris. The capsule will splash down 31 km east of the launch site and will be recovered by GO Searcher and GO Navigator.

Following the success of the IFA mission, the first crewed mission (Demo-2) could take place as early as February, if rumors are to be believed (more specifically, a possibly inadvertent leak from an announcer on the CRS-19 mission). SpaceX will need to complete its parachute certification, but it is either done or nearly done with that requirement.


While there is always the possibility of something going wrong, if either test flight is successful, we will be seeing humans launch to space from U.S. soil for the first time in over ten years in the first half of 2020.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 14th 2019 at 11:38:14 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4416: Dec 15th 2019 at 3:02:32 PM

Fighteer's launch report, December 16-22 edition, courtesy of Everyday Astronaut...

  • China: Long March 3B/YZ-1 | Beidou-3 M19 & M20: December 16, 2019 07:20 UTC (2:20 AM EST)
  • SpaceX: Falcon 9 Block 5 | JCSAT-18/KACIFIC-1: December 17, 2019 00:10 UTC (Dec 16 7:10 PM EST)
    • This mission will use booster B1056.3, which was originally assigned to CRS-19 before that mission got B1059.1 instead.
    • Because this is a launch to GEO, the booster will not perform a boostback, but will land 651 km downrange on drone ship Of Course I Still Love You.
    • Fairing recovery ships GO Ms. Tree and GO Ms. Chief are on station. If all goes well, this will be the first time both fairing halves are captured before they hit the water. The first double catch attempt was going to be on Starlink 1 but was called off due to rough seas.
    • SpaceX will stream the mission live here.
  • Russia: Soyuz STA/Fregat | CSG-1 & CHEOPS: December 17, 2019 08:54 UTC (3:54 AM EST)
  • China: Long March 4B | CBERS-4A: December 20, 2019 03:21 UTC (Dec 19 10:21 PM EST)
  • Boeing: Atlas V N22 | CST-100 Starliner Orbital Flight Test (Uncrewed): December 20, 2019 11:36 UTC (6:36 AM EST)

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 16th 2019 at 10:34:18 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4417: Dec 16th 2019 at 5:07:40 PM

  • SpaceX: Falcon 9 Block 5 | JCSAT-18/KACIFIC-1
    The mission was a success. Launch, booster landing, and satellite deployment occurred as planned. Unusually, we got uninterrupted video of the drone ship landing, during which the booster appeared to "bounce" slightly, or start ascending again for a fraction of a second before the engine cut off.
    SpaceX tweeted that the fairing recovery ships barely missed their net catches, but the halves will be recovered from the water [1].

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
superboy313 Since: May, 2015
#4418: Dec 16th 2019 at 9:33:47 PM

When do you think the first moon base will finally be built?

eagleoftheninth Shop all day, greed is free from a dreamed portrait, imperfect Since: May, 2013 Relationship Status: With my statistically significant other
Shop all day, greed is free
#4419: Dec 16th 2019 at 9:44:28 PM

We have no incentive to build one in the foreseeable future.

One day, we will read his name in the news and cheer.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#4421: Dec 16th 2019 at 10:39:14 PM

[up] Why would we? There’s no financial incentive right now, so the reason would be research, and I can’t see funding showing up for that.

They should have sent a poet.
Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#4422: Dec 16th 2019 at 10:43:45 PM

It should be noted the foreseeable future is a very long time from now. Just because there's no reason to now doesn't mean there never will be. Having said that, I'm going to be pessimistic and say there won't be a moon base for another 80 years.

Leviticus 19:34
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4423: Dec 17th 2019 at 3:40:23 AM

There is no active commercial incentive to build a Moon base; it's true. However, several companies, including Blue Origin and SpaceX, view a lunar colony as an inevitable facet of our progress into space and foresee a huge benefit to the first mover, which is why they're putting a lot of effort into it. note 

NASA wants a Moon base as well, but it's a far from answered question whether it will secure the necessary funding from Congress. If said plans involve the use of SLS, they are almost certainly going to get cut at some point due to the cost of that rocket, but cheap commercial transport would make it possible.

If it weren't for Congressional meddling, this would indeed be the plan: NASA handles the science and private companies provide the transportation and equipment. As usual, though, the pork is too lucrative for some people (cough Sen. Shelby) to leave alone.

Fundamentally, it's a matter of cost. There isn't enough lift capacity currently on the planet to support a Moon base, full stop, and the lift capacity NASA is building will be too expensive to make it sustainable. If, however, SpaceX gets Starship up and running as planned (or Blue Origin builds New Armstrong), and pushes the marginal cost of space travel down as much as it believes it can, then we'll see people living on the Moon eventually.

2080 is much too pessimistic under the latter timeline. With Elon Musk's vision of hundreds or even thousands of Starships making space travel as convenient as commercial air travel, we could put the first permanent boots on the ground as early as the 2030s. With Jeff Bezos' vision of orbiting hotels and asteroid mining, we could have the resources and personnel in space to do all the necessary work.

Both companies seem to be operating in an "if we build it, they will come" mentality, with the added stipulation that, "If they don't come, we'll do it ourselves." Bezos has all the money and can fund Blue Origin indefinitely. Musk intends to fund SpaceX's future plans on the back of satellite internet services.

There are no guarantees, of course.


  • Russia: Soyuz STA/Fregat | CSG-1 & CHEOPS

The launch was scrubbed during the countdown due to a fault of some sort; we don't know any details yet. Full article at NASA Spaceflight.

The interesting payload on this mission is CHEOPS, a European Space Agency spacecraft designed to study exoplanets.

Edited by Fighteer on Dec 17th 2019 at 9:59:33 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#4424: Dec 17th 2019 at 7:33:18 AM

While a station on the lunar surface is mere speculation at this point, the first modules of the Lunar Gateway project (a space station in orbit around the moon) is scheduled for deployment in 2024. Whether they will actually make it or not will depend on behind the scenes politics, but right now it's on the drawing board.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4425: Dec 17th 2019 at 8:11:15 AM

I saw on Twitter that a higher-up in the Russian space program wants to build a space elevator on the Moon. This would indeed be very helpful in establishing and maintaining a base, especially since the Moon is an ideal case for such a project. We could make it with materials and science that we currently possess, as opposed to a space elevator on Earth.

The real problem is that Roscosmos is barely funded enough as it is. Building such a huge project would require both money and launch capability that Russia simply does not possess, nor could reasonably get in the next decade. If they contract with SpaceX or Blue Origin, however...

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

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