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Nohbody "In distress", my ass. from Somewhere in Dixie Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Mu
alekos23 Since: Mar, 2013
#4302: Sep 16th 2019 at 5:13:02 AM

So what is needed for the Sun to capture extrasolar objects? The planets slowing it down enough?

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4303: Sep 16th 2019 at 6:23:35 AM

[up] More or less. If you remember your high school geometry, there are two types of curves: parabolas and hyperbolas. All objects in space follow one of these two curves. If they are traveling slowly enough that the gravity of a body will keep them from escaping, their trajectory will be a parabola, a closed ellipse. If they are moving too fast to be captured, their trajectory will be a hyperbola, extending out to infinity.

It is possible for a super-close encounter with a large body, like Jupiter, to perturb its trajectory enough to slow it down, and you could calculate how much velocity it would have to lose to stay within the solar system, but the actual math is well beyond my current knowledge. A close encounter with the Sun wouldn't do the trick, because it's already moving fast enough to escape the Sun's gravity.

It is probable, even likely, that over the course of the Solar System's life (~4.6 billion years), many sizable interstellar objects have not only passed through but struck the planets. This is one source of the panspermia theory of biogenesis.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 16th 2019 at 9:29:06 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4304: Sep 17th 2019 at 2:27:49 PM

Crossposted to the General Physics topic.

Ars Technica: Fresh analysis of LIGO data supports “no hair” theorem for black holes

So, how to break this down simply? Black holes are among the most awesome objects in the universe, not least because they prove Einstein's theory of General Relativity to be correct, and further proof came in 2015 when we detected gravitational waves from merging black holes for the first time. They are also fearsomely problematic for quantum mechanics, as GR states that they should destroy quantum information by removing it from the universe.

The "no hair" theorem states that a black hole can be perfectly described with exactly three properties: mass, charge, and spin. Any information about the matter or energy that falls past the event horizon is lost from our universe and can never be recovered, violating a crucial principle of quantum mechanics. Steven Hawking and others attempted to reconcile this problem, resulting in the concept of Hawking radiation and the idea that all of the information about infalling particles remains imprinted on the event horizon and slowly released over the lifetime of the black hole.

The new analysis of public LIGO data from that first black hole merger seems to support the idea that they are beasts of pure general relativity with, indeed, "no hair". This would, if verified (the data are still too uncertain to be taken as absolute proof), be a setback to the potential unification of GR and QM. I'm curious to see where it leads in the future.


Other space news:

JAXA | H-2B | HTV-8

The pad fire that caused Japan's eighth ISS resupply mission to be aborted last week remains under investigation. We do not have a firm date for the next launch attempt, as they'll have to ensure that the rocket is safe first. (Twitter)

Virgin Galactic | SpaceShipTwo

Virgin Galactic reports that it has achieved a milestone in the manufacture of their next SpaceShipTwo vehicle: mating the fuselage and cabin. As a reminder, this is Richard Branson's pet project (billionaires funding space technology, what a novel idea) to advance space tourism by allowing passengers to ride on a suborbital rocket-powered vehicle that is air-dropped from a carrier aircraft, reaching into space before landing on a runway.

SpaceShipOne has already flown successful test missions and the next generation is currently in advanced development.

Russia | Proton

(Tass): Russia’s Khrunichev center to make 11 Proton-M rockets before their production stops

Russia's Proton M rocket has been the workhorse of their medium lift orbital program, but will be discontinued in 2020-2021. They have been developing its successor, the Angara, which uses more environmentally friendly fuels (Proton uses a highly toxic hypergolic fuel mixture). There is some doubt that Angara will be ready on time, or indeed ready at all, given the increasing competition from commercial launch vehicles.

SpaceX | Starship

With September 28 as the deadline for Elon Musk's presentation on the next-generation rocket from SpaceX, construction in Boca Chica, TX has been proceeding at a fantastic rate. Tweets from numerous observers and photographers at the site [1] show that the aft and forward sections may be just about ready to assemble [2].

When fully built, Starship will already be one of the largest rockets in the world, even without its Superheavy booster stage, and its first suborbital flight, to approximately 20 km, is tentatively scheduled for mid-October. FAA, FCC, and local environmental permits are in various stages of completion as well.

As a reminder, the two prototypes currently under construction will not carry cargo or passengers. Their purpose is to test all aspects of the vehicle's and engines' performance, up to and including suborbital flight, reentry, and landing.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 17th 2019 at 5:46:57 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4305: Sep 19th 2019 at 6:27:34 AM

I've been having trouble posting interesting information about NASA's Artemis Moon landing program, largely because the news has trickled out so slowly and incrementally and is often highly technical. However, Ars Technica just posted an article covering Congressional hearings about Artemis and SLS that makes me facepalm a little.

Apparently, a former NASA administrator named Doug Cooke has been lobbying hard for changes to the development schedule for Artemis. The current plan is to build the Lunar Gateway, a small space station that will act as a hub for Moon missions as well as future missions to Mars. The initial version of SLS will bring the large pieces of equipment, along with the Orion crew module, to this gateway, while commercial rockets (such as SpaceX's Falcon Heavy and Blue Origin's New Shepard) will bring the remaining equipment. It'll all be assembled and go from there, at a significantly lower cost (100 to 200 million USD per commercial launch, compared to 1 to 2 billion USD for each SLS launch).

Cooke, along with some committee members, is trying to kill the Lunar Gateway and instead push for development of the Exploration Upper Stage, a more powerful component of SLS that would be capable of lifting the entire moon lander in one go, eliminating the need for commercial launch support. The trouble is that Boeing is already years behind schedule and billions of dollars over contract in building the SLS core stage, which is unlikely to fly before 2021. They are also building the Starliner crew capsule for ISS missions, among other projects, and it is feared that asking them to build EUS will mean delays well past the 2024 target date.

Now, whom does Doug Cooke seem to represent in all this? Boeing. Who provides lots of jobs in the districts of the Members of Congress that are siding with him? Boeing. Who is in direct competition with the companies who would be building and launching the Lunar Gateway? Boeing. Who stands to lose a ton of business to commercial launch providers? Boeing. The company is even lobbying to take control of the assembly and integration of SLS away from NASA.

It doesn't take a genius to see where this is coming from. I hope Congress doesn't go for it, although if they do, it will be with great amusement and not a little schadenfreude that I watch Artemis fall farther behind as SpaceX continues its record-breaking pace for Starship/Superheavy development.

Other tidbits from Eric Berger's Twitter thread include that Boeing is already being criticized for SLS being underpowered for its mission and that Doug Cooke has received $465,000 in consulting fees from Boeing since 2017.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 19th 2019 at 10:05:11 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4306: Sep 19th 2019 at 3:44:46 PM

Back on SLS, NASA announces that the last of the five sections of the main stage for the first rocket has been assembled, at the Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans, awaiting only the RS-25 engines to be complete. After it is finished and preliminary tests are done, it'll be transported to Stennis Space Center in Mississippi for "green run" testing, which is looking like it could happen in December.

If all goes well, we could see the first test launch of SLS in 2020.


Northrop Grumman | OmegA

(Florida Today) Northrop Grumman concludes investigation into Omega rocket's test fire anomaly

During a May ground test fire in Utah, Northrop Grumman's OmegA solid rocket booster suffered an anomaly about 10 seconds prior to conclusion of the test, when the rocket nozzle literally exploded, disintegrating on camera. While Northrop has not publicly revealed the exact cause of the failure, they have stated that it was a result of the specific conditions associated with ground testing and would not occur in actual flight. Fingers crossed.

OmegA will be a platform for national security launches for the Air Force starting in 2022. A similar booster will be used to power the SLS, but Northrop "does not anticipate any issues with the nozzle for that system."

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 20th 2019 at 9:38:16 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4307: Sep 20th 2019 at 6:08:16 AM

JAXA | H-2B || HTV-8

MHI (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries) has announced the cause of the pad fire that forced an abort of the HTV-8 ISS resupply mission from Tanegashima Space Center in Japan on September 10. Apparently, lower than usual winds caused liquid oxygen vented from the engine to accumulate on the exit hole on the launch pad, and it was then ignited by static electricity. They've taken measures to correct the issue and will try to launch again on Tuesday, September 24 at 1:30 AM JST (Sep 23 16:30 UTC).

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 20th 2019 at 9:24:15 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#4308: Sep 20th 2019 at 8:38:24 AM

That seems like a bad oversight when your rocket requires a minimum ambient wind speed to function properly.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4309: Sep 20th 2019 at 10:06:57 AM

It seems to have more to do with the drainage system for liquid oxygen, but I'm not exactly an expert.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#4310: Sep 20th 2019 at 11:16:06 AM

"Cooke, along with some committee members, is trying to kill the Lunar Gateway and instead push for development of the Exploration Upper Stage"

I really hope this doesn't happen. A permanent space station in higher orbit is exactly what I have been hoping for for years (lunar will do).

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4311: Sep 22nd 2019 at 8:16:18 AM

[up] Interestingly, Elon Musk himself has pooh-poohed the Lunar Gateway, saying that orbital refueling is enough for Starship Moon landings and that plus ISRU are enough for any Mars mission. He thinks that the Moon, while an object of great interest from a cultural and scientific standpoint, is a dead-end as far as space commercialization is concerned.


More on Starship Mk 1: the prototype vehicle now has both of its lower body fins. Twitter enthusiasts made multiple posts showing the latest construction progress ([1] [2] [3]), courtesy of the 24/7 amateur photography coverage of the Boca Chica site. Musk even joined in [4], starting a back-and-forth with Everyday Astronaut that revealed some fascinating details about how the vehicle's aerodynamics will work.

In these images, you can see the Starship prototype on a stand or block, with the fins now attached, and its freshly installed forward bulkhead visible at the top. Not visible in these photos is the upper half of the Starship vehicle, which should, if the blueprints are accurate, be the cargo/crew section. The tall structure visible next to Starship is a windbreaker, designed to prevent damage or toppling caused by high winds — a fate that befell the upper half of Starhopper a few months ago and resulted in the stubby, "trash can" look when it took to the air for its test hops.

There was some debate about whether Starship would have two or three lower fins, or fin wings, or "fwings" as people are now calling them. These are not lift surfaces, as Starship will not fly like an aircraft, but are for aerodynamic control and braking. When descending from orbit, Starship will aerobrake in a "belly flop" attitude, presenting the maximum possible surface area to the air. The side that will be used for this will be equipped with heat shields, while the "top" side will be used as a radiator. The fwings (love that word) will provide additional surface area for braking, plus control and stability by changing their angle of attack.


(NASASpaceFlight.com) Elon Musk’s upcoming Starship presentation to mark 12 months of rapid progress. This article covers the evolution of Starship and Superheavy from the first public information to its current advanced state of development. Musk still plans to give his presentation on September 28 in front of a finished prototype, so this next week is going to be very busy.


(Space.com) SpaceX Seeks Property Buyouts Near Starhopper Launch Site in Texas: Report. In slightly more sobering news, which was reported by Business Insider and picked up by other media, SpaceX is seeking to purchase the homes in Boca Chica Village, a few miles away from their Starship launch site. In their statement, the company says that its plans did not initially include significant disruption to the tiny town, but the expansion of the site to support Starship/Superheavy launch exposes it to serious risks in terms of noise pollution, possible explosions, and even the increased pace of development.

Accordingly, SpaceX has had an independent appraiser value the properties and made an offer to purchase them for three times market value, if residents decide in the next two weeks. The offer is stated as "non-negotiable", but that's one of those polite lies in the business. Residents have expressed skepticism about the offer, but county officials are enthusiastic about the potential for significant financial benefits from all the commercial development. Cameron County is one of the poorest in Texas.

Residents who accept the offer will also be granted permanent VIP status for private viewings and other events related to SpaceX launch activity.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 22nd 2019 at 7:20:28 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#4312: Sep 22nd 2019 at 7:00:40 PM

"Interestingly, Elon Musk himself has pooh-poohed the Lunar Gateway, saying that orbital refueling is enough for Starship Moon landings and that plus ISRU are enough for any Mars mission. He thinks that the Moon, while an object of great interest from a cultural and scientific standpoint, is a dead-end as far as space commercialization is concerned."

Yes, he's right about the Moon, but that isn't the point. When he says "enough for any Mars mission" did he maintain a straight face? Because I can think of Mars missions that no spacecraft we could conceivably launch in the next 100 years could cover by itself (ie, it's just a matter of how ambitious we are).

Anyway, the ultimate space commercialization targets are the asteroids, which he knows perfectly well. Again, how ambitious are we?

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4313: Sep 22nd 2019 at 7:06:04 PM

[up] You mean like taking 100 people plus cargo to Mars, landing, refueling, and returning to Earth? Because Starship/Superheavy can handle that with orbital refueling (LEO), or at least that's the goal. The key is to produce your return flight fuel on Mars. If you can do that, there's virtually no limit to your transport capacity... or rather, the limit is the rate at which you can create fuel in situ.

One of the first Starship missions to Mars (presumably after an initial test run) will bring an automated methane production facility. It'll make the fuel for the first human mission to use to return home.

Asteroid mining has great potential, but I don't think Musk is interested. He's about the rapid development of colonies on other worlds, providing the transportation backbone to make it possible. If Bezos wants to build hotels in space and mine asteroids, great. Let him worry about that part.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 22nd 2019 at 10:17:58 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#4314: Sep 23rd 2019 at 7:29:30 AM

Space colonies are arbitrarily large. Whatever the capacity of a given spaceship design, an orbiting habitat using the same technology has more. In the long term, assembling interplanetary missions from supplies stockpiled in space will spread the costs out. And obtaining fuel from sources that are not at the bottom of a planetary gravity well (even Mars' relatively weak one) will cost less.

I admit, however, that I have a (not so well) hidden agenda. Using huge rocket ships assembled on Earth for two way missions keeps administration and control centralized on Earth. An earth-bound corporation could never allow their commercialized colonies to become independent. I am looking forward to a time when a space-born population will be self-sustainable. I realize that is not a logic that would appeal to current policy makers.

Besides, Musk is still talking about chemical rockets. Ultimately, to make this happen, we will need to transition to some sort of nuclear design, or else VASIMR.

Edited by DeMarquis on Sep 23rd 2019 at 10:32:37 AM

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4315: Sep 23rd 2019 at 8:09:48 AM

Well, so is Bezos. Nobody in the spaceflight industry is discussing practical applications for anything other than chemical fuel, because we as yet do not have that technology anywhere close to mature enough. It may happen, though, which is great for everyone. Go science.

Also, let's be realistic. There's no way Earth won't be the center of any interplanetary society for at least five hundred years, if not more. That's the minimum time to build true self-sustaining colonies.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#4316: Sep 24th 2019 at 7:26:24 PM

Maybe "self-sustainable" is the wrong term, since I'm envisioning the development of a mission center and resource depot in space that will have the ability to pool resources from exploration and settlement accumulates across the solar system; some place that would grow because it becomes an attractive base from which missions across the solar system would originate from and return to. "Space habitat central", as it were. This would ultimately provide a population center (not necessarily a permanent one, but permanently manned) from which a space-based infrastructure could potentially grow on it's own. I suspect that the surface of the Moon or Mars will be unsuitable for this. Although we will obviously want to exploit resources and other opportunities in those locations, I don't see any advantage in putting very many people on the surface. It's not like the surface of the Moon is much more habitable than space itself. I also suspect that one day, provided we do expand manned exploration and exploitation of the solar system, the center of gravity (as it were) will shift away from near Earth out to the Jupiter and Saturnian systems (though that would have to be a century or more away). The surface of those bodies are such that we are probably better off just orbiting them.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#4317: Sep 24th 2019 at 7:59:51 PM

In terms of building infrastructure in space, the Moon makes way more sense as a place to start than Mars does. "We shouldn't build a space station in lunar orbit because we can get to Mars without one" seems to miss the point of why you'd want to build a station in lunar orbit. Hint: it's not because you need one to get to Mars.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Euodiachloris Since: Oct, 2010
#4318: Sep 25th 2019 at 7:35:44 AM

[up]Agreed.

A nice, close chunk of relative gravitational stability that's relatively easy to get to and which is in easy communication range?

What, exactly, is wrong with good, old Luna?

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4319: Sep 25th 2019 at 7:46:18 AM

This is going to be a somewhat quick update since I'm quite busy at the moment.

JAXA H-IIB | HTV-8

After a two-week delay to evaluate and correct the cause of a pad fire, Japan's eighth ISS resupply mission lifted off on-time yesterday (Sep 24) and made its way to orbit. (Twitter)

Soyuz MS-15

Russia launched its latest manned mission to the ISS this morning (Sep 25). The rocket performed nominally and the crew are on their way. (Twitter)

SpaceX Starship

Teslarati discusses Elon Musk's recent tweet storm about Starship's reentry mechanisms and how it will use its control surfaces (wings/fins) to manage its angle of attack and corresponding heat load. Because the plan is to have the vehicle be rapidly reusable, it will generate lift at hypersonic velocity to reduce peak heat while increasing the total time for deceleration. It will then go nose-on into the atmosphere for transsonic flight before flipping over to land vertically.

After pictures emerged of what looked like Tesla Model S/X battery packs being delivered to the site and attached to the header tanks, Elon said that the nose section would have 400 kWh of batteries to power the electric motors needed to drive the fin actuators against the incredible force of hypersonic reentry.

Meanwhile, Starship Mk 1's nosecone has been attached (after the top ring was cut off and replaced for better fit), and it appears that fittings are being installed to enable the entire fairing section to be lifted and stacked atop the tank section. (Twitter)

Adding: Courtesy of Lab Padre, we have some amazing close-ups of the preparations for joining the rocket sections, including video. (Twitter)

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 25th 2019 at 3:20:33 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4320: Sep 25th 2019 at 11:35:33 AM

SpaceX Starship

Tim Dodd and Scott Manley just published videos dissecting and analyzing the new information we've gotten about Starship's reentry profile and the configuration of its fins. Tim even went so far as to simulate it in Kerbal Space Program so everyone can see how it works. He managed to nail a reentry and landing with his homemade Starship mockup.

Starship's fins will lie flat during ascent and landing to minimize their effects on the vehicle's aerodynamic stability, and will extend during reentry. With four (two high, two low), various motions can fully control pitch, yaw, and roll without requiring any propellant.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 25th 2019 at 2:35:52 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#4321: Sep 26th 2019 at 1:46:18 PM

Wow. Thats amazing.

Re lunar base—I have no objections to that, provided its in orbit.

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4322: Sep 27th 2019 at 6:40:58 AM

Starship finally has dragon wings. (Twitter). I don't know if there is any engineering validity behind the styling of the canard fins, but man do they look cool. Mating should happen today. The big crane is apparently ready to go. (Twitter)

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 27th 2019 at 9:41:28 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4323: Sep 27th 2019 at 12:22:33 PM

Starship is whole! This Twitter thread shows the evolution in photographs. It looks like they are doing lots of work to attach the fairing to the tank section, which is why it's still slightly tilted. You wouldn't want to let the thing lay flush and risk a poor fit causing it to collapse until all the structural work is done.

I can't believe how far this has come in only a few weeks. For reference, the fully assembled vehicle is about 50 meters tall. In case you're wondering, because I was, the Raptors are mounted inside the bottom rings to protect them against aerodynamic forces during reentry. (Twitter thread with Elon Musk)

Elon is still tweeting like mad, telling us more about the technology in the Raptors:

  • They use regenerative cooling, with milled copper channels and a high-tech superalloy (Inconel) jacket. [1]
  • Peak regen cooling and nozzle pressure is 800 bar (12,000 psi). [2]
  • 250 bar chamber pressure is all that's needed for Starship/Superheavy to achieve its goals. They will keep working to get it up to the promised 300, but it's not a priority. [3]
  • Raptor is "close to the limits of the known physics of materials". [4]

Oh, and apparently it's rollout day for Tesla v10 software, leading to Everyday Astronaut tweeting himself watching the Starship assembly from the Youtube app in his Model 3. [5]

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 27th 2019 at 3:24:49 PM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4324: Sep 28th 2019 at 8:17:13 AM

The SpaceX Starship Update presentation livestream will start at 7 PM CST (8 PM EST, 24:00 UTC) tonight. Official stream

At least a half-dozen other streamers will also be covering it. I may get three computers and have them each show two of them at the same time, just for maximum insanity.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#4325: Sep 28th 2019 at 9:25:48 PM

The presentation was pretty awesome. Perhaps the most fun was the videos that SpaceX prepared to show off the new design of Starship and Superheavy. There was lots of great info, and I may make a larger post about it soon, but here are some of the highlights:

  • Four Starship prototypes will be built, two each in Boca Chica and Cocoa. Mk 1 and Mk 2 will be suborbital, with three Raptors each. Mk 3 and Mk 4 will be orbit-capable, with the full complement of six. Superheavy construction will begin after the completion of Mk 3 and Mk 4 at each location and will support those orbital launches.
    • Starship can SSTO if stripped down, but wouldn't be able to land, which defeats the point.
  • The main bottleneck is the availability of Raptor engines. They are building 1 per week now, can scale up to 1 per day. Superheavy can launch with as few as 24 engines and as many as 37 depending on requirements, but more engines equals more lift capacity and redundancy in the event of a failure.
    • Napkin math says that this production rate could supply between 7 and 13 full Starship/Superheavy vehicles per year depending on configuration. Given that engines will wear out or break no matter how well they're designed, a total fleet of twenty in continuous operation seems possible.
  • Musk believes that orbital flight will be achieved in six months, with human certification less than six months after that. The main reason it will happen so soon is that the fully reusable nature of the system will mean they could run all needed flights as quickly as they can recycle the vehicles.
  • The Superheavy booster could fly up to 20 times per day, and Starship up to 4 times, depending on its orbital profile — some missions may need to stay up longer than others or wait multiple orbits for a rendezvous or landing window.
  • A single Starship could fly 1000 times per year and lift 150 tons to orbit per flight. A fleet of ten Starships could lift 1.5 million tons per year. This is more than 1000 times the combined lift capacity of all rockets everywhere in the world, including the Falcon family. Elon believes that colonizing Mars will require this level of capability.
  • Despite Jim Bridenstine's passive-aggressive tweet about SpaceX diverting its attention from the Commercial Crew Program to focus on Starship, Elon said that less than 5% of the company's total resources are going towards this program currently, with the vast majority continuing to focus on the Falcon family and Crew Dragon.

Edited by Fighteer on Sep 30th 2019 at 10:01:53 AM

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

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