Windup Girl is incredibly pessimistic about our immediate future, almost cartoonishly so. Generally a lot of "near-future" science fiction is very pessimistic while far-future is far more optimistic. One of my favourite series is the Culture novels, they are a far future series and as far as the future goes it is very optimistic, while at the same time being very cynical about human nature.
I think it's a social thing. As society gets more interwoven with comunication and is made much closer through the internet, we tend to have a cynical outlook because it's harder to ignore the problems in life. Thus, a lot of struggles and complexity has been steadily gaining in SF over the last 40 years or so.
That being said, I do think there's a lot of great idealistic work out there, we're just in a trend of cynical works at the moment so they are harder to find. The Culture is interesting because it hits both sides of the Sliding Scale of C vs I at the same time. On one hand, the Clture is a utopia played perfectly straight where perfect health, nonstop parties and druugs, sex, and enjoyment are readibly available to anyone who wants it. However, the narrative makes it quite clear that the vast majority of everyone else isn't so lucky and the Culture only got there with an overwhelming technological advantage and nearly godlike AI's to help them. But I digress.
I think we're starting a reconstruction tre nd as of late and many older tropes dealing with simpler stories and more idealistic genres are making a comeback. For instance, Neopulp and Space Opera are doing better than ever with new reprints, original fiction, and a nostalgia for pure adventure. But we'll have to see how things play out.
I don't know about selling better, but cynical works are more likely to win awards.
Yes, I strongly question the thesis here. Even if we just consider the five works (actually six, since there was a tie in 2010), I don't come to the same conclusions as OP.
- Blackout / All Clear (2011): much of it is set during the Blitz, but that's historical fact, and the book(s) don't seem very cynical or pessimistic to me. It's full of heroism and people rising to meet a real (historical) challenge. I'd call it optimistic.
- The Windup Girl (2010): haven't read it, but people seem to think it's cynical/pessimistic, so ok.
- The City & the City (2010): a murder mystery (at least to start), so you'd expect darkness. Doesn't seem extremely cynical/pessimistic to me, but I'll give OP this one.
- The Graveyard Book (2009): a dark work, but I don't see it as pessimistic at all. Neutral at worst, but I'd personally call it mildly optimistic.
- The Yiddish Policemen's Union (2008): a complex work with many dark streaks, but I don't see the pessimism. I'd call this neutral.
- Rainbows End (2007): lots of weird near-future tech, but I don't see anything even remotely pessimistic. I'd call this one quite optimistic myself.
So that's three for optimism, two for pessimism, and one neutral, by my count. I also haven't read Among Others, but what I've heard of it would put it in the optimistic camp as well.
Maybe optimistic/pessimistic isn't really what's OP is trying to measure? Maybe it's gritty realism vs. the bright, primary colors of the pulp era? If so, I'd probably agree. Modern SF (at least SF literature) tends to be a lot more complex and nuanced than the golden age stuff. And in my opinion, is generally better for it.
But as for pessimism and cynicism, I think that actually peaked in the seventies or eighties, when eco-catastrophe and cyberpunk were added to cosmic horror, alien invasion and nuclear catastrophe in the list of popular spec-fic topics.
edit: spelling and wicks
edited 19th Nov '12 4:25:53 PM by Xtifr
Speaking words of fandom: let it squee, let it squee.

It seems to me that modern speculative fiction is much more pessimistic than older SF. Mind you, there's plenty of old "grim-dark" works, but cynical works seem to dominate the SF market. If you look at the past five Hugo-winning novels (before Among Others because I haven't read it yet) I'd say only one is "optimistic" and two are pessimistic (Rainbows End and the Windup Girl are somewhere in the middle in my opinion).
Do you think that there should be more SF with a happy outlook on reality or am I barking up the wrong tree here?
edited 16th Nov '12 5:39:37 PM by DrIntrovert
Never let your sense of morals keep you from doing what's right.