It wasn’t initially, but the fact that your chosen example of them doing said crimes was an incident that didn’t involve any of them has made it much harder.
If there’s this bounty of evidence that Syrians refugees are this big problem, why the hell did you decide to lead by talking about an event they had nothing to do with?
As best this is the equivalent of talking about how the Polish government has an oppressive perspective on women’s rights and pointing to the US Supreme Court overturning Roe as evidence for this. Even if the conclusion is right, the evidence for it is a crock of shit.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranDid't criminalogists and sociologists who analysed crime statistics conclude that there is nothing to suggest that refugees on average commit more or less crime than the local population. Also that war refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan hardly appear in police statistics and are much less likely to commit violent crimes than immigrants from other places who are unlikely to be granted asylum.
https://eufactcheck.eu/factcheck/mostly-false-the-refugee-crisis-has-made-germany-more-insecure/
In fact, the number of non-German suspects and suspected immigrants is higher at the time of the refugee crisis than in other years. The proportion of non-German suspects increased from 7.57% (2014) to 10.01% (2015). A larger increase is seen among immigrant suspects: from 12.26% (2014) to 21.69% and 27.16% (2015 and 2016). The numbers decreased again in the following years. However, with 17.29% (2019) the proportion of suspected immigrants is higher than five years before. In comparison, the proportion of German suspects is much lower at a constant below 2%. This is, among other things, due to the fact that Germans with an immigrant background are counted as non-German suspects.
The statistics indeed show that the proportion of foreign suspects has increased. The fact is: The chart provides an overview of all criminal offenses. According to a statement by economist Yue Huang who did research about the refugee crisis in Germany, studies like these should be interpreted with caution since there are limits in their usefulness when it comes to analysing refugee crime. Huang said in an interview: “In the existing literature, some work has been done on immigration and crime. But (these studies) just look at the total crimes, which can include crimes committed by natives against natives, or crimes committed by natives against foreigners, even. So just using these total crime numbers, you cannot clearly see whether immigrants or refugees commit more crimes against natives.” In fact, many studies aiming to measure immigration crime only focus on overall “crude” crime numbers. These will not take into account many other factors, such as the ever-changing number of crimes in Germany over the decades. In his study, Yue Huang found no systematic correlation between the number of refugees and the number of German victims regarding crimes committed by refugees: “We did not find any evidence for a systematic link between the scale of refugee immigration and the risk of Germans to become victims of a crime in which refugees are suspects. This result holds true not only for total crimes with victim recording in police crime statistics, but also for sub-categories of such crimes, such as robbery (economic crimes), bodily injury (violent crimes), and rape and sexual coercion (sex crimes).” That means that Germans are not more likely to become a victim of a crime committed by a refugee than before 2015
According to a report by criminologist Christian Pfeiffer, war refugees from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan hardly appear in the police statistics. During the refugee crisis, Germany has largely taken in immigrants from Syria. The report points out that they much less likely to commit violent crimes than immigrants from other places who are unlikely to be granted asylum. According to an article by Deutsche Welle, there was an increase of 79% in the number of crimes committed by refugees between 2014 and 2015 – however, over the same time period the number of refugees increased by 440%.
The BKA also concluded in its 2015 annual report, “on average, refugees commit as many or as few crimes as the local population.” The document added that although the number of crimes in the first half of 2015 initially increased significantly, the number of crimes in the second half of the year stagnated. What also invalidates Gauland’s statement is the fact that in 2018, the crime rate recorded its lowest level since 1992, while the number of refugees in Germany was at a record high.
Gauland’s claim is based on the BKA’s 2019 annual report, which shows that immigrants are statistically disproportionately involved in violent crimes such as murder, manslaughter, assault, and rape. Nevertheless, these numbers are not evidence of an increased propensity to commit crimes among refugees. To see this point, demographic data is important. The majority of immigrants, both then and now, are young men; the age group of 21-40 is particularly conspicuous. This group is considered especially delinquent – in every country, regardless of origin. Which means the age and gender structure of suspected Natives looks similar. The share of male foreigners between the ages of 18 and 45 in the total number of foreigners is 29.01%. The proportion of male Germans between 20 and 49 years of age in the total number of Germans is 21.94%. Even though the age intervals do not match exactly, it becomes clear that the share of the potentially most criminal population group is higher among the foreign population.
According to Gauland, refugees more often commit “murders and rapes”, so-called crimes against life. There is indeed a significant increase of crimes in which at least one refugee is suspected throughout the years and immigrants are statistically overrepresented in terms of sexual offenses, even in comparison with German men of the same age. Criminologist Tatjana Hörnle explains to the German news show tagesschau: “The differences in the suspect load number are so large that smaller deviations […] would not eliminate them. The hypothesis that immigrants commit sexual offenses to the same extent as German men of the same age must be rejected.” (The crime suspect load number tells how many of 100,000 members of a certain group are suspected of committing a certain crime.) This also correlates with cultural reasons like traditional masculinity in the origin country and problematic social situations like an insecure residence status. However, immigrant suspects more likely have to answer for minor offenses such as theft like shoplifting and pickpocketing (40.5% in 2015) and property and forgery offenses (25.2%) as the PKS shows.
In 2015, 233 crimes against life were recorded in which at least one at least one immigrant was identified as a suspect. This corresponds to an increase of 91% compared to 2014 (2014: 122 offenses). The total number of registered offenses against life ranged between 2,721 and 3,007 crimes per year between 2014 and 2019. The numbers of solved crimes against life with at least one suspected immigrant increased from 2014 to 2017, but decreased thereafter. Although the number of crimes against life with at least one immigrant overall remained low in comparison to the total number of solved cases, immigrants are more likely to be suspects than natives: 11% of all suspects in sexual offenses in 2017 were asylum seekers. Criminologist Christian Pfeiffer explains this: “The willingness to report is much greater, the more foreign the perpetrator is.” For this reason, the number of German suspects could be lower than the number of non-German suspects.
The PKS only records the number of suspects – not the number of convicted criminals. Until a verdict is reached, a person is considered innocent and can therefore only be considered a suspect. In their essay The Ethnicity of the Perpetrator as a Predictor of the Reporting Behavior of Victims and Witnesses (2003), sociologists Jürgen Mansel and Günter Albrecht point out that “certain ethnic minorities have been shown to be more likely to be reported than the German majority community.” If this argument should still be valid today, an assault among Germans would be reported less frequently than an assault involving a non-German perpetrator. And prosecution depends to a large extent on the reporting behavior of the population. “In general, prejudices can influence who is considered a suspect and who is not,” says political scientist J. Olaf Kleist in an interview with SPIEGEL. The idea that more refugees will increase the crime rate in the country is a social problem, not a cultural one.
Conclusion
If you only look at the numbers, Gauland is right in his thesis. The number of refugees as suspects has increased since Merkel’s refugee policy. However, one cannot conclude that Germany has become more insecure as a result. Studies have shown not only that war refugees from Syria barely appear in the police statistics, Germans are also not more likely to become a victim of a crime committed by a refugee than before 2015. The majority of refugees living in Germany are male, young, poorer than average and residents of large cities. These factors statistically increase the risk of becoming a criminal. Since the German majority society has a more balanced gender distribution, a more even age structure and is wealthier on average, a distorted picture emerges. In summary, the underlying immigration processes are highly diverse with respect to social life situations, origin and demographic structure. Thus, we conclude that the statement made by Alexander Gauland is mostly false.Actually, according to the Police Statistics, Syrians and Afghans are the top two of criminal offenders among non-germans (see the german Wikipedia Article on Afghans in Germany).
Also, the 2016 new years eve incident might be the most well-known, but it was hardly the only one.
And while I can buy people recording a crime more often when done by a 'foreign looking man' in certain cases, I do not buy it when it comes to sexual crimes.
A woman who has been raped will NOT go "Well he is blonde, I'm not gonna report him!" Insinuating that is, in my humble opinion, pretty darn mysoginistic.
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% Scandinavian
Unless the English translation of said page is wrong, the page state that Afghans account for the second highest criminal suspects not convicted offenders. And the line before that stated that they accounted for the lowest proportion of foreign crimes (again, if it is translated correctly)
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AfghanistanstA4mmige_in_Deutschland
According to a statement by development worker Reinhard Erös in October 2015, of all immigrant groups, they account for the smallest proportion of foreign crimes . [8] In absolute numbers, according to the crime statistics of the Federal Criminal Police Office for 2016, Afghans make up the second largest group of non-German suspects in crimes committed in Germany after Syrians with almost 80,000 suspects. [9]
Edited by xyzt on Jun 28th 2022 at 11:51:59 PM
I'm reminded of when I tried to research the American eugenics movement and found that in trying to support eugenics, Eugenics supporters tried to point to a town where many of the criminals there were of South European descent, thus, "it's in the blood, why should we let these inferior criminal-disposed people breed"?
This conclusion conveniently ignored that the data was gathered in a town where people of South European descent were the majority.
I'm also reminded of the whole "Black people are criminals" thing we have over in the States. Somebody would try to sound reasonable, saying that Black people are most often pulled over and arrested for crimes...while ignoring the very vital question of "were they actually guilty of those crimes, what was the basis for their arrests or pull-overs"?
Statistics are easily manipulated when you don't have the larger context behind them. One can make bad conclusions from good data-or even just incomplete data. You don't rely on just the one poll to draw a conclusion.
Trans rights are human rights. TV Tropes is not a place for bigotry, cruelty, or dickishness, no matter who or their position.Italian language article about Greek sub-governmental institutions mocking Germans for the gas crisis
, with suggestions that if they come to Greek islands in winter they won't need heating. OK, so the Italian newspaper claims that it's kind of revenge for the Euro crisis but German language media it's more a marketing gag for the Greek tourism industry.
NORTH vs SOUTH 2.0: Spain, Greece and Portugal reject the EU call for 15% cuts in natural gas consumption to help Germany - Spanish Energy Minister (clearly aiming at Berlin): "Contrary to other countries, Spain hasn't been living beyond its means in energy terms"
Looks like the bill for the German policies during the Euro crisis is coming due...
Looks like a reconsideration of the Atomausstieg is coming, too, although the outcome isn't set yet: Scholz Opens Door for Extending Nuclear Power in Germany
. Also EU commissar admonishes the German government to run nuclear power plants for longer
.
Remember that scandal from about 1 year ago, were thin-skinned Hamburg Senator Andy Grote had somebody's house searched for calling him a "little cock"?
A court deemed it illegal
Though I still doubt he will suffer any real consequences.
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% ScandinavianCrossposting from Eastern European Politics: The Oder River is contaminated
:
The exact cause of the mass fish kill, also reported upstream around two weeks ago, remains unclear.
At the end of July, Polish anglers reported removing tons of dead fish from the Oder near the town of Olawa, about 300 kilometers (186 miles) upstream from the current fish die-off.
At the time, the Lower Silesia Water Authority based in the nearby Polish city of Wroclaw detected a toxic substance in two locations on the Oder that is likely the solvent mesitylene, which is known to have a toxic effect on fish. However, subsequent tests have shown no trace of the substance.
Meanwhile, water samples taken by authorities on the German side of the river in the state of Brandenburg have indicated significant levels of mercury pollution, reported public broadcaster RBB on Friday. As yet, no official explanation for the higher mercury levels has been given.[...]
Fish in the river are struggling, Wolter said, due to lower oxygen levels caused by historically low water levels (a trend since 2018) and high water temperatures of around 25 degrees Celsius (77 Fahrenheit).
"When fish are stressed, respiration goes up," he said, meaning aquatic life needs more oxygen.
This situation has been exacerbated by ongoing discharges of wastewater into the Oder.
"This is legal and usually wouldn't matter," Wolter explained. "But with low water levels you get a higher concentration of [oxygen consuming] salt and organic material."
Added to the mix is work on the Polish side of the Oder building groins — a rigid structure created with rock, soil and gravel to prevent erosion. This has increased sediment, which also reduces oxygen levels in already shallow water, Wolter said.[...]
Meanwhile, local anglers told Wolter that fish die-offs were observed further upstream from Olawa as early as March. This suggests a deeper and more widespread problem than a single contamination event in late July.
Wolter also noted that floodplains in the area have been overly drained in recent decades, causing much drier and stressed river systems. [...]
Lawmaker Malgorzata Tracz from the Polish Green Party told DW that despite alerting authorities about the ecological catastrophe on the Oder, Polish government institutions did not even warn residents that they should not touch the river water.
She said that around 8 tons of fish were found near Olawa alone. "The problem is huge," she said. "It is not something that can be ignored or that will be overcome on its own."
The local fishing community "are terrified by the situation," she noted, saying that anglers have been most vocal on the issue in Poland due to the lack of support from public institutions.
Tracz has written emails to local and federal water and environmental agencies and ministries asking them to investigate the source of the contamination, and to "punish the people that did it."
So far, she has received no response, despite what she described as "an environmental disaster." [...]
German environment groups are blaming insufficient water conservation measures for the die-off, as well as a lack of cross-border cooperation on the frontier river that crosses the Czech Republic, Poland and Germany.
"This ecological catastrophe would not have been of such magnitude if the German and Polish authorities had worked together more intensively," said Antje von Broock, managing director of the German Association for the Environment and Nature Conservation (BUND), adding that targeted warnings should have been put in place.
"Dead fish have been floating on the Oder since the end of July, now over a distance of several hundred kilometers," she said in a statement.
A "diverse and healthy ecosystem" could better resist toxic substances in the river, if they were responsible for the die-off, von Broock added.
"The fish kill is therefore also a symptom of decades of poor planning in water management and chronic underfunding of water protection."
Both BUND and Malgorzata Tracz said the International Commission for the Protection of the Oder, a joint agreement between Poland, the Czech Republic and Germany to protect one of Europe's more pristine waterways, needed to be upheld.
From what I can tell, some politicians were dismissed in the Polish gov, but otherwise there doesn't seem to be much we or anyone knows about this.
Olaf Scholz's reaction to the ongoing Cum Ex investigation basically boils down to "I didn't do nothing!"
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% ScandinavianOn another note, one of Germany's biggest Anti-Vaxxing, Q-supporting, violence-inciting Conspiracy Theorists, who resides in the Philippines, has been arrested there
https://www.vice.com/en/article/n7zexk/oliver-janich-germany-philippines
People in Germany were asked if they'd still support Ukraine despite rising energy prices
◊ and a majority of 70 % said yes.
The lowest percentage based on parties was, to absolutely nobody's surprise, the AfD with only 14 % of their supporters saying yes.
Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Sep 9th 2022 at 7:58:40 PM
We learn from history that we do not learn from historyGerman far-right party orders sweets, gets jelly penises
The party ordered packets of sweets to be given out to potential voters in Lower Saxony, which goes to the polls on October 9. Presumably the sweets were supposed to look like the AfD’s logo, a red tick heading right (imagine the Nike swoosh if it was anti-immigration).
However, according to photos of the sweets sent by a party member to a journalist and shared on social media, the sweets are less tick and more dick.
Edited by DrunkenNordmann on Sep 14th 2022 at 11:04:31 AM
We learn from history that we do not learn from historyVeteran FDP Politician Wolfgang Kubicki is being sued by Turkish President Erdogan for calling the latter a "sewer rat".
I for one can understand the outrage. Being compared to Erdogan is an insult to any decent sewer rat alive
Edited by Forenperser on Oct 1st 2022 at 10:50:51 AM
Certified: 48.0% West Asian, 6.5% South Asian, 15.8% North/West European, 15.7% English, 7.4% Balkan, 6.6% ScandinavianStatement on Ukrainians: How Merz spread Kremlin propaganda
By Herbert Kordes and Lara Straatmann, WDR
Since an interview with “Bild-TV” on September 26, the word was suddenly on everyone’s lips: “social tourism”. CDU leader Friedrich Merz used it with a view to refugees from Ukraine: “We are now experiencing social tourism from these refugees to Germany, back to Ukraine, to Germany, back to Ukraine.” A “larger number” are now taking advantage of this system. Merz stated: “We have a problem there, it’s getting bigger.”
The waves were high: Interior Minister Nancy Faeser found the statement “shabby”, Green parliamentary group leader Britta Haßelmann accused Merz of wanting to make a name for himself with methods used by right-wing populists. Merz apologized for his choice of words. He didn’t want to offend anyone, but he insisted that there were increasing problems with an increasing number of refugees and asylum seekers, including those from Ukraine.
The Russian media picked up the ball: They spread the message about Merz’s accusation and his apology: “In Germany, people are outraged about the Ukrainian refugees,” reported the state news agency RIA Novosti. And oligarch Konstantin Malofeev’s TSARGRAD-TV station, which is close to the Kremlin, ran the headline: “Friedrich Merz – first the German politician scolded, then he was forced to regret it.” Merz in the service of Russian propaganda?
“In the end, the Russian media presented Friedrich Merz as a witness for two disinformation narratives by the Kremlin,” says Berlin communications and political advisor Johannes Hillje. “Firstly, for the allegation that Ukrainian refugees are fraudsters, and secondly, that freedom of expression is no longer possible in Germany.” Friedrich Merz is – intentionally or not – ultimately “in the service of Russian propaganda”. It is unclear where Merz got his information about the alleged “social tourism” of Ukrainian refugees. on monitor– He did not want to comment on the request. Telegram voice message as a trigger
But where did the claims come from and who spread them? It all started with a voice message on September 10th in the Messenger service Telegram. Under the headline “Organized Fraud”, an anonymous user claims that Ukrainian refugees regularly travel to their homeland with the bus company Flixbus: “The Flixbuses are fully booked more than two weeks in advance because the Ukrainians use the Flixbus to commute to Germany, here Go to the office, report, get Hartz IV and then take the Flixbus back.”
The message is called up thousands of times – and comments: “Looting of the social system with an announcement,” writes a user. Another: “The service is not completely free – the German taxpayer pays for that too.”
Josef Holnburger, Managing Director at the Center for Monitoring, Analysis and Strategy (Ce MAS), has examined how what began as a simple voice message spread further and further: “It didn’t reach such large channels for a few days, but then it became shared over time by higher-reach, mainly pro-Russian channels on Telegram.”
Channels such as “News from Russia” – operated by the influencer Alina Lipp, who is loyal to Putin. Her channel, on which she spreads pro-Russian propaganda, has around 180,000 followers. Lipp explains the supposed welfare fraud as a mass phenomenon: “Ukrainians are supposed to drive to Germany by Flixbus in droves, collect social benefits and drive back to Ukraine,” she writes. A leader of the right-wing extremist “Identitarian Movement” also spread the news and spoke of “social tourism”, a term that differs only slightly from Merz’ later choice of words. Putin’s agents?
Holnburger describes such channels as “vicarious agents”. They reached up to 200,000 people with a message on Telegram: “These are people who often invent and spread disinformation for the Kremlin.” They are not necessarily on the Kremlin’s payroll, “but also do it for their own reasons, because, for example, they think the war of aggression against Ukraine is the right thing to do.”
Is there any evidence at all for the claim of an alleged mass “social tourism”? On the network, the Flix buses in the direction of Kyiv, which are fully booked for days, sometimes weeks, are enough as evidence. But is that enough?
Flixbus responds to monitor request: The demand for trips to the Ukraine is still very high, but: “We have no evidence of Mr. Merz’s allegation of ‘social tourism’.” Counts at the border crossings also show that after the Russian army withdrew from parts of the previously occupied areas, return travel to Ukraine increased significantly.
The fact is: since June 1st, refugees from the Ukraine have been entitled to basic social security benefits and thus receive benefits like Hartz IV recipients. The job centers at the Federal Employment Agency are responsible for processing applications. No indication of abuse of social benefits
But even the job centers cannot find any evidence of an alleged “social tourism”. The job centers “regularly took numerous measures to uncover potential abuse of benefits,” writes the federal agency on request: Among other things, internal data comparisons and those with other authorities, inspection visits to the registration address by field staff. Result: “The Federal Employment Agency currently has no indications of ‘social tourism’ to Germany.”
A survey of the 16 German state governments also came up empty in this regard. 13 state governments are open monitor-Inquiry answered. The answers are the same. The spokeswoman for the Ministry of the Interior of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, for example, writes that there are “no reliable findings” on the allegedly widespread social fraud through commuting between Germany and the Ukraine.
As a result, there is no reliable evidence for Merz’s claim, which he still essentially sticks to – and which is being disseminated in a targeted manner by the extreme right-wing media close to the Kremlin.
‘Terror granny’ accused of ‘plotting German civil war to bring back the Kaiser’
The cell allegedly wanted to kidnap the country’s health minister and attack the electricity grid to spark a civil war and restore the Prussian monarchy.
Elisabeth R, a 75-year-old retired teacher who was quickly nicknamed “terror granny” by the German press, was arrested at her home in the eastern state of Saxony.
On Friday, she was flown to Germany’s federal court, where she was photographed getting out of a helicopter carrying only a paper potato bag.
Prosecutors said that she was the leader of a group that wanted to overthrow democratic Germany and bring back the Kaiser.
The group allegedly planned to kidnap Karl Lauterbach, the German health minister, who is a hate figure among the far-Right because of his advocacy of strict lockdowns during the pandemic.
The group then planned to carry out sabotage attacks on the electricity grid with the intent of causing a blackout so severe that it would lead to “civil war-like conditions”, the arrest warrant stated.
Four other members of the group were arrested in April. Police found a Kalashnikov gun and a Nazi SS uniform in one of the suspect’s homes.
Elisabeth R is accused of being both the spiritual and organisational leader of the cell.
She gave the other members deadlines for acquiring explosives and weapons, prosecutors said.
‘Coup manifesto’ prepared
Pamphlets she had written were supposed to be spread among the public once their attempted coup attempt had been started, it is alleged.
It is unclear just how far the group managed to get in their alleged preparations.
A neighbour in the town of Floeha told Bild newspaper that Elisabeth R was a solitary person.
“I rarely saw her. She used to do gardening in the evenings wearing a headlamp,” the man said.
Elizabeth R reportedly lost her state pension over repeated public statements denying the legitimacy of the modern German state. Treaty of Versailles denial
According to reports in the German press, she was known as “the countess” inside the Reichsbuerger scene, a loose movement that seeks to bring back the Prussian monarchy.
She appeared to have co-authored long texts arguing that the Treaty of Versailles, which brought about the end of the First World War, was invalid, and that Germany is still legally a monarchy.
Berlin has identified a heightened threat from far-Right terror in recent years. In 2018, police broke up a neo-Nazi terror cell that was planning a “false flag” terror attack intended to create fear of migrants.[[/quoteblock]]

Ok, maybe I have to explain myself better.
Data is not just data, it's also a tool, and whoever collects data also has to be aware of what is that information might be used for.
I'm not saying this problem is non-existent, I'm saying that if you don't use clockwork tools for this you are going to end up hurting a lot of people.
I mean, what the hell Zarastro? Look at the way you worded things, if I simply took your statement at face value it would seem more like an argument to get "those people" away from German women because they are too much of a hassle to work with (you all know where this is going).
As for the statistics matters, you are not exactly in luck, one of the easiest tricks used by people who manage the graphs is to get a "representative sample" from a portion of the population, which could be just a 1% of the whole if you look at the number of people studied. Unless law requires that the sample has to be taken from, say, 51% of the population studied to be considered representative, you can end up with this sleight of hand.
Edited by raziel365 on Jun 28th 2022 at 4:52:43 AM
Instead of focusing on relatives that divide us, we should find the absolutes that tie us.