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Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#51: Mar 7th 2012 at 12:18:01 PM

Wow.

This frickin' viral. It's spread over here, and my Facebook feed is full of my friends Liking and Sharing this video several times over.

Psyga315 Since: Jan, 2001
#52: Mar 7th 2012 at 12:19:31 PM

It's spread to Ponibooru (an imageboard for My Little Pony) and the author of Homestuck has posted it on his Tumblr.

All we need now is for TGWTG to talk about Kony and we might have some chance.

SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
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#53: Mar 7th 2012 at 12:21:00 PM

(obligatory image macro)

Every foreign policy analyst's least favorite words are "we have to do something".

The fact is, we—defining "we" as the international community—are already. Unless you missed the news last summer, there's a contingent of a hundred US troops in the area training up a number of national armies—South Sudan, the CAR, and the DRC—to handle counterinsurgency. Over the past several years, there have been multiple military raids carried out with the objective of capturing or killing Joseph Kony. None have been successful, and at least one, in 2006, was a bloody outright failure, wherein a US-trained Guatemalan commando group was wiped out to the last man.

Actually getting Kony is going to take a long time. It's going to require subtle diplomacy, country by country, to pinch off his safe havens, and that includes getting the perennial headache of Sudan to play ball and not to support him. It's going to require long, concerted counterinsurgency and intelligence-gathering. And perhaps most importantly it's going to require training the Ugandan People's Defense Force, the UPDF, into shape, for as long as they remain corrupt and unprofessional, the citizenry will not support them.

All of these measures will take a lot of time. They cannot be accomplished in any quick way. More importantly, they are already underway. So as glad as I am that Kony's atrocities are being publicized, I am also deeply worried. The smart solution is to use this newfound public pressure and outrage as a diplomatic tool to pressure recalcitrant local nations to cooperate; this has to be done quickly and efficiently, because public outrage evaporates at a moment's notice, and it has to be done with at least some measure of subtlety.

Unfortunately "subtlety" and "public outrage" tend not to work well together. The stupid solution is for the howl of public outrage to drive leaders into the "we have to do something" mindset. That "something" will turn out to be yet another half-baked military raid, or a sudden infusion of cash into the unprofessional UPDF, increasing corruption and decreasing readiness levels, or clumsy heavy-handed diplomacy carried out over the protests of the local diplomats who actually know what's going on. And in the end Kony will escape again, the area is left appreciably worse, and every country involved is nursing a bloody nose.

So...that's why I hope the storm of publicity brought on by the video will die down quickly. That's why I hope whtever public outrage it generates will be properly managed and used. And that's why I fervently hope we do not do "something"—because the results of a hasty, improperly-thought-out, outrage-driven intervention will be as bad as, if not worse than, the current course of events.

edited 9th Mar '12 2:14:58 PM by SabresEdge

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
johnnyfog Actual Wrestling Legend from the Zocalo Since: Apr, 2010 Relationship Status: They can't hide forever. We've got satellites.
Actual Wrestling Legend
#54: Mar 7th 2012 at 1:25:49 PM

Nobody is going to bother going after this guy, at least until he inherits an oil field.

Then we'll buy him a lobster dinner.

I'm a skeptical squirrel
Ilichburger Since: Jun, 2011
#55: Mar 7th 2012 at 2:02:24 PM

Y'know, I really don't like how this Jason Russell guy talks about himself and his life and shows his pretty face every time he can. I'm also not very fond of the pretentiousness and the Tear Jerking moments of the video.

However, it's about something we should talk about.

...it's just that I don't trust the people behind all this buzz.

SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
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#56: Mar 7th 2012 at 2:27:45 PM

Hmm. Is Invisible Children still pursuing its early-warning radio project? It's a project very much worth supporting, and it provides the HUMINT-on-the-ground needed to track and hunt the LRA.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
Vanillapod Since: Nov, 2010
#57: Mar 7th 2012 at 3:54:16 PM

There's going to be a night of putting up in my posters in my city (Edinburgh), too. In a moment of excitement at the thought of making a difference, no matter how little, I agreed to joining the event (I was invited by a friend) over Facebook.

But I admit I'm a little torn up about it ... I have a hard time thinking about paying for an Action Kit when I remember how they support the Ugandan military ... it's terribly messed up.

There are other charities, but I suppose I'll thank this one for it's viral-ness, and it is getting the word out.

I might take a totally crazy third option and go out on the 20th of April to do my part, but give to other charities that provide more as well. Yeah.

Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#58: Mar 7th 2012 at 3:56:27 PM

But there's always the chance that this could all die down by 20 April. The media will go crazy for a few weeks, then people will join it. It'll peak, people start losing interest, and eventually nothing really happens.

Now, that may be a bit cynical, but this seems like the kind of thing that could go that route.

Vanillapod Since: Nov, 2010
#59: Mar 7th 2012 at 3:59:16 PM

That could happen. The date does feel oddly far away to me for some reason, but I suppose it needs time.

(toooorn~)

It's easy to feel a little cynical in this situation - just as easy as it is to feel idealistic about it.

Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#60: Mar 7th 2012 at 4:04:44 PM

But 20 April is one month and two weeks away. Seems too short for a chronic thing, and too long for a one-hit wonder, at least to me.

Now, I'm not saying that it should die off, but it seems most likely too. It's too wrong to be overly idealistic, or pessimistic about this. But we also must remember we're trying to pressure governments.

Now, maybe there's a shot with the EU - they love civil liberties, but that's a slim chance. Governments always ignore the popular masses. And there appears to be no offical figurehead for this movement. That's the problem. Government won't get anything from this movement, and this has no legitimacy, in the eyes of Government.

Pykrete NOT THE BEES from Viridian Forest Since: Sep, 2009
NOT THE BEES
#61: Mar 7th 2012 at 4:07:00 PM

Yeah I'm in the "haven't we been pushing efforts against him since 2010 or thereabouts?" camp. Granted it didn't get a whole lot of exposure because kicking his ass is less controversial than other campaigns and he hasn't gotten around to attacking us yet, but still, it's been going.

Vanillapod Since: Nov, 2010
#62: Mar 7th 2012 at 4:11:08 PM

Good point ... wasn't there one politician on the video that seemed to be featured quite a bit? I don't remember his name, though.

Goddarnit this is so ... twisty? It's sort of a never-ending circle.

Usually I thought the government over in the UK were better at listening compared to in America ... but I'm saying this when I don't know all that much about politics. Still thinking about that third option.

SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
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#63: Mar 7th 2012 at 4:16:32 PM

Red Cross and UN organizations are good ones to donate to. Invisible Children themselves also have have other programs, too: they helped with forming village militias, which I believe is the route to go: take and hold villages instead of exchanging raids. Each village bristling with radios and guns is a village that LRA subunits will be unwilling to attack.

The question now is if IC is still pursuing grassroots counterinsurgency like the radio program, or if it's wholeheartedly shifting to a big-military strategy. The first is less dramatic, but it stands a better chance of working. The second will get all the limelight, but big-army jungle counterinsurgency gives armies nightmares.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#64: Mar 7th 2012 at 4:17:18 PM

the government over in the UK were better at listening

Well, considering there was the equivalent of a small city descending on Westminister to protest against the Iraq War, I don't really think so.

Now, I think the EU - there's a shot there. They really love that humanitarian aid and civil rights stuff. But, then again, that's a slim chance. It's not in the direct European interest to support this.

Basically, people will listen. But Governments won't. There are no "strategic interests". There are no "democracies to safeguard". Governments will have nothing to do with this. There may be 100 people. There may be 100 million people. The amount of people doesn't matter. Governments only gain street cred for this, and Governments are in power for a relatively short time.

[up]That is true. The radio thing seems a lot easier to maintain as well.

edited 7th Mar '12 4:18:24 PM by Inhopelessguy

SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
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#65: Mar 7th 2012 at 4:22:35 PM

You're forgetting about the latest buzzword, R2P. "Responsibility to protect" justified the Libyan intervention. Uganda/CAR/Congo hasn't yet been presented in the UN as a possible intervention case, but it's possible that it will.

Interventions aren't always about government cases, either. Malaya spanned five PMs. Vietnam lasted four presidencies, if you include the first batch of advisors sent under Eisenhower. Afghanistan and Iraq are well into their second presidencies, and third prime ministers. The decision to intervene is not one that can be readily reversed.

EDIT: best analysis I've seen so far. Link is now shortened to avoid problems.

edited 7th Mar '12 6:09:28 PM by SabresEdge

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
Pykrete NOT THE BEES from Viridian Forest Since: Sep, 2009
NOT THE BEES
#66: Mar 7th 2012 at 6:07:14 PM

Before anyone says that link is broken, kill the hyphen + space in the url.

Aqueos Nova here from Los Angeles Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Californicating
#67: Mar 7th 2012 at 6:30:32 PM

This was what I was afraid this might be. Turns out it is what they thought it was. Honestly to me this looks like somewhat of a money making venture.........

Blech.

[up][up]Actually, people, you would be better off reading that.

So......

edited 7th Mar '12 6:33:28 PM by Aqueos

Bet you didn't see that coming
Psyga315 Since: Jan, 2001
#68: Mar 7th 2012 at 6:39:03 PM

While agree that the choice of tagline is odd, "Justice for Kony 2012" to me sounds more like they are trying to save Kony from punishment. (as in Give Kony Justice)

FarseerLolotea from America's Finest City Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Drift compatible
Aqueos Nova here from Los Angeles Since: Dec, 2011 Relationship Status: Californicating
#70: Mar 7th 2012 at 10:36:55 PM

Nigahiga just posted a video telling people to watch this.

WEEEEEE That's going to jump start things.

Regardless of whether this campaign is good it's gaining speed.

edited 7th Mar '12 10:37:36 PM by Aqueos

Bet you didn't see that coming
Psyga315 Since: Jan, 2001
#71: Mar 7th 2012 at 10:46:14 PM

... Sorry guys, but this joke must be made.

Kony must be stopped... No matter the cost.

Grimview Catalytic from British Columbia Since: Mar, 2012
Catalytic
#72: Mar 8th 2012 at 12:16:14 AM

Two images that have made their way to my facebook;

One does not simply...

Tell me more...

Note again; I'm in favour of doing something to stop Kony.

I am not in favour of the fad-like nature of how this is going down, and frankly the fact that anyone can be shocked by what is going on in Africa when it's been going on for 30 or 40 years is rather depressing.

I am also not in favour of Invisible Children, due to their highly questionable practices as an organisation.

edited 8th Mar '12 12:17:32 AM by Grimview

"Lock up your girlfriends, lock up your wives, Grim's on the loose so run for your lives." - Pyrite
SabresEdge Show an affirming flame from a defense-in-depth Since: Oct, 2010
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#73: Mar 8th 2012 at 12:43:08 AM

I do know they've done some really good work, especially in conjunction with Interactive Radio for Justice. That kind of grassroots counterinsurgency program, I can get behind.

That said, the misinformative nature of the current publicity campaign will do nothing to help things out, and it looks like it's backlashing on the group.

Charlie Stross's cheerful, optimistic predictions for 2017, part one of three.
FarseerLolotea from America's Finest City Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Drift compatible
#74: Mar 8th 2012 at 12:51:22 AM

I'm iffy about IC myself. That's why I've been linking that Tumblr with information from other sources around.

GrungeSaladin09 from a mountain Since: Jan, 2012
#75: Mar 8th 2012 at 2:00:35 AM

Wow this thing's really gaining speed. When I watched it an hour ago, it was at 15 mil. Now it's probably close to 30 mil. I've been posting a link to this on the comments, hoping that people will look at it.

Also, I'm calling it now: Kony will be either dead or captured by the end of next month.

edited 8th Mar '12 2:07:00 AM by GrungeSaladin09

A lie was told...

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