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RainbowMatt Prettiest Pony :3 from the cave of unspeakable naughtiness Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
Prettiest Pony :3
#26: Feb 21st 2012 at 11:35:50 AM

Russia and China are not going to be allies really for too much longer. China is basically stealing Siberia from the Russians without a shot being fired and are advancing enough that they will not need to buy equipment from the Russians for much longer.

Devypu's~ Big Pony :3
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#27: Feb 21st 2012 at 11:40:25 AM

Remember, though, that Russia and China are both members of the SCO.

How much that actually matters, I'm not sure.

ok boomer
HungryJoe Gristknife from Under the Tree Since: Dec, 2009
Gristknife
#28: Feb 21st 2012 at 7:20:09 PM

There are still oldguard generals in China that assume a showdown with the West is coming.

Random, I'm freaking terrified for much the same reasons (although I'd be slightly less likely to get drafted, since I'm a couple years older). But that doesn't mean I don't think it won't happen. The American economy could tank, and the power structure in China might have shifted in the right way for a default to be seen as a pretext for, I dunno, annexing the West Coast as renumertion.

It'd be, pardon my ableism, retarded to do so, but it's not entirely implausible.

Still, I think WWIII will likely come out of a confrontation between the US and Iran with somebody stepping on China or Russia's toes.

Charlie Tunoku is a lover and a fighter.
Zyxzy Embrace the mindscrew from Salem, OR Since: Jan, 2001
Embrace the mindscrew
#29: Feb 21st 2012 at 7:24:17 PM

WWIII? In the current climate. Very unlikely. Not much stomach for something so big these days. We'll have to wait a while.

What's the frequency Kenneth?|In case of war.
HungryJoe Gristknife from Under the Tree Since: Dec, 2009
Gristknife
#30: Feb 21st 2012 at 7:29:03 PM

What about WW 2.5?

Charlie Tunoku is a lover and a fighter.
Zyxzy Embrace the mindscrew from Salem, OR Since: Jan, 2001
Embrace the mindscrew
#31: Feb 21st 2012 at 7:32:30 PM

2.5? What, only half the great powers of the world fight? No, nothing to fight like that about.

What's the frequency Kenneth?|In case of war.
0dd1 Just awesome like that from Nowhere Land Since: Sep, 2009
Just awesome like that
#32: Feb 21st 2012 at 11:24:03 PM

See, I was more concerned about WWIV. Will it be an even better war than the first three, just like Grand Theft Auto?

Insert witty and clever quip here. My page, as the database hates my handle.
Journeyman Overlording the Underworld from On a throne in a vault overlooking the Wasteland Since: Nov, 2010
Overlording the Underworld
#33: Feb 22nd 2012 at 7:03:43 AM

I've heard talk that Germany's courting conservativism again. Whether that's really going to happen or not, I don't know. I also read that they're the military backbone of the EU.

Your thoughts?

inane242 Anwalt der Verdammten from A B-Movie Bildungsroman Since: Nov, 2010
Anwalt der Verdammten
#34: Feb 22nd 2012 at 7:04:55 AM

Conservative =/= Facist

edited 22nd Feb '12 7:05:16 AM by inane242

The 5 geek social fallacies. Know them well.
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#35: Feb 22nd 2012 at 7:51:50 AM

[up][up] Nah, I'm there right now. No one in Germany likes the military, and antimilitarism was on every single party's poster during the elections here in September.

Also, the Germany that started World War II and "started" (insofar as that can be used) World War I were nothing like the Germany today.

edited 22nd Feb '12 7:53:23 AM by somerandomdude

ok boomer
Newfable Since: Feb, 2011
#36: Feb 22nd 2012 at 8:03:13 AM

I don't think WWIII will be happening soon, but sometime in 100 years or so? Definitely.

By then, we'll have exhausted or nearly exhausted natural resources, and there will be a race to not only replicate and artificially produce said resources, but to steal those same resources from other countries.

Couple that with the idea that in at least 100 years, we'll have found multiple planets capable of sustaining human life, and will be working diligently to get there. It'll split the world in two like a science fiction novel: those that want to go against those that want to stay.

Journeyman Overlording the Underworld from On a throne in a vault overlooking the Wasteland Since: Nov, 2010
Overlording the Underworld
#37: Feb 22nd 2012 at 12:08:04 PM

It took less than a hundred years to get from Cars barely functioning to the internet age. It won't take that long to break out of our resource funk, as long as the Corporate World finds the willpower to do so. Faced with destruction, they will.

There won't be a war between the leavers and the stayers. Those who want to stay will gladly say, "Good riddance" to those who want to leave, and look forward to the loosening of the resource strain.

Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#38: Feb 22nd 2012 at 12:11:59 PM

@ journeyman. Conservatism is different from being conservative - especially in European democracies. Conservatism is gradual, evolutionary change to a system (unlike liberals, who want fast change to a system), whereas conservative is very little change at all.

Well, WWIII may not be a physical war. It could just be a war based on economic prowess. Which makes sense; India vs. China vs. EU vs. USA. Hopefully, the EU will coalesce into the United Federal Communities of the States of the European Continent by this point, which would make it more effective in fighting this war.

Journeyman Overlording the Underworld from On a throne in a vault overlooking the Wasteland Since: Nov, 2010
Overlording the Underworld
#39: Feb 22nd 2012 at 3:18:09 PM

Fine, I got the wrong term. The person who told me this was hinting at them remilitarizing. So it's more edging toward the old Far-Right-Wing-Insanity, not slow change.

If we're following the models of the other World Wars, it would be a physically violent, nation-shattering thing.

HungryJoe Gristknife from Under the Tree Since: Dec, 2009
Gristknife
#40: Feb 22nd 2012 at 3:21:34 PM

However, yes, Germany is a major part of the EU's military, although France might be more important.

Charlie Tunoku is a lover and a fighter.
Journeyman Overlording the Underworld from On a throne in a vault overlooking the Wasteland Since: Nov, 2010
Overlording the Underworld
#41: Feb 22nd 2012 at 3:25:04 PM

Ahh, France. Then the EU will probably not be the start of any wars for a while. If the government actually tried anything in France, the citizens would probably reinstate the guillotine one last time.

The only real start of any major wars I can see is if some of the (small) Islamist groups actually did get their hands on nukes/chemical/bio weapons, in sufficient quantity, to do serious damage. I don't see it happening.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#42: Feb 22nd 2012 at 3:32:05 PM

How does that start a major war instead of another Afghanistan? I don't know about other countries but I do recall the US policy being that it wouldn't be using nuclear weapons on countries just because an organization used them as base. If the nation itself was folling the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty then the US wouldn't respond in kind unless the nation in question was Iran or North Korea.

Journeyman Overlording the Underworld from On a throne in a vault overlooking the Wasteland Since: Nov, 2010
Overlording the Underworld
#43: Feb 22nd 2012 at 4:00:45 PM

A major war doesn't require nukes or WM Ds, just a large chunk of the world's population going to war. Depending on how well hidden/dug-in the Islamists were, and just who they were threatening, I could see invasions happening over it.

edited 22nd Feb '12 4:02:02 PM by Journeyman

HungryJoe Gristknife from Under the Tree Since: Dec, 2009
Gristknife
#44: Feb 22nd 2012 at 4:15:47 PM

It's kind of shocking that there aren't terrorist organizations with access to chemical weapons already.

We're really lucky that the breeding ground for most of today's terrorists is such an uneducated region. Making some chemical weapons isn't too difficult, hell, you can buy plenty of already poisonous compounds in bulk. In fact, chlorine based attacks happened in Iraq back in 2007, used in a building or subway system instead of dispersed by truckbomb, it would be considerably more deadly.

But I don't think terrorists are going to start WWIII.

Charlie Tunoku is a lover and a fighter.
Journeyman Overlording the Underworld from On a throne in a vault overlooking the Wasteland Since: Nov, 2010
Overlording the Underworld
#45: Feb 22nd 2012 at 4:27:40 PM

I know. I said a major war. A World War is a whole higher level than that.

They're not THAT uneducated, though. The Underwear Bomber was a college student (Or a grad, I can't remember). It's less a lack of education and more an arrogance that is unfounded. "Our religion is the last word! You will never beat us!" A bullet can beat y'all, and we have plenty of those.

HungryJoe Gristknife from Under the Tree Since: Dec, 2009
Gristknife
#46: Feb 22nd 2012 at 4:30:12 PM

Well, it's a lack of the right kin of education. Not too many Afghani or Pakistani chemists who are inclined to join up with al-Qaeda or similar organizations.

Charlie Tunoku is a lover and a fighter.
RainbowMatt Prettiest Pony :3 from the cave of unspeakable naughtiness Since: Oct, 2011 Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
Prettiest Pony :3
#47: Feb 22nd 2012 at 4:30:33 PM

I've heard talk that Germany's courting conservativism again. Whether that's really going to happen or not, I don't know. I also read that they're the military backbone of the EU.

Germany has good military equipmemt, but their soldiers themselves have performed very poorly in the field, from Kosovo to Afghanistan they have been widely criticised, by their own Generals as well as other nations. In fact during rioting in Kosovo they actually hid in their barracks and were cited as a factor that things there got so out of control. You do not have to take my word for it, go to the googles. But yeah, they still produce some of the best equipment.

edited 22nd Feb '12 4:31:03 PM by RainbowMatt

Devypu's~ Big Pony :3
HungryJoe Gristknife from Under the Tree Since: Dec, 2009
Gristknife
#48: Feb 22nd 2012 at 4:34:17 PM

Good lord, looks like post-WWII anti-military sentiment worked a little too well.

What would Bismarck say?

Charlie Tunoku is a lover and a fighter.
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#49: Feb 23rd 2012 at 6:15:22 AM

[up] Like I said above, I honestly don't remember a single party whose posters never included Gegen Militarismus ("against militarism") during the elections last year. I think it's kind of sad, actually; German military history is vastly more varied than "NAZIS LOL" and they certainly have a great many military campaigns to be proud of.

As for Bismarck? He'd probably be disappointed, but I think he'd get where everyone was coming from.

ok boomer
HellmanSabian Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
#50: Feb 23rd 2012 at 10:24:46 AM

I think it will happen, only much later on in the future. Probably because of a lack of basic resources or some random country does something really stupid.


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