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somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#1: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:08:39 PM

Debate thread. Will World War III ever actually happen?

I personally don't see it as likely, unless something happens like with World War I and we all get sucked into it via interlocking treaties.

ok boomer
KaitouSai Immortal Beast from With my robot girlfriend Since: May, 2011
Immortal Beast
#2: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:10:10 PM

ohgod

this will be a beautiful thread

Become the fang for those who have none! Help FanserviceFTW!
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#3: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:14:48 PM

[up] Beautiful as in interesting or beautiful as in glorious carnage?

ok boomer
KaitouSai Immortal Beast from With my robot girlfriend Since: May, 2011
Immortal Beast
#4: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:18:53 PM

it will start interesting

But then it will become glorious carnage

or get derailed into some stupid shit

edited 19th Feb '12 12:19:44 PM by KaitouSai

Become the fang for those who have none! Help FanserviceFTW!
NatTheWriter Since: Oct, 2011
#5: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:19:38 PM

Glorious, fabulous carnage.

Flyboy Decemberist from the United States Since: Dec, 2011
Decemberist
#6: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:21:02 PM

Will World War III happen? I suppose it's remotely possible. But it's highly unlikely.

If it does happen, I doubt it'll be in our life time.

"Shit, our candidate is a psychopath. Better replace him with Newt Gingrich."
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#7: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:21:08 PM

Well, let's get the ball rolling.

Official debate topic: Whether or not World War III will break out in the next 100 years.

Anyone here of the opinion that it will?

ok boomer
inane242 Anwalt der Verdammten from A B-Movie Bildungsroman Since: Nov, 2010
Anwalt der Verdammten
#8: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:24:18 PM

Oh god. This thread will end well.

The 5 geek social fallacies. Know them well.
Carciofus Is that cake frosting? from Alpha Tucanae I Since: May, 2010
Is that cake frosting?
#9: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:40:39 PM

There is some serious danger that it will, I think.

It's not guaranteed either way, but that's definitely something to be vigilant against — personally, this danger is one of the reasons why I am profoundly in favor of a democratic, federal One World Government with total and exclusive control of armed forces. Humankind needs it, badly.

edited 19th Feb '12 12:41:09 PM by Carciofus

But they seem to know where they are going, the ones who walk away from Omelas.
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#10: Feb 19th 2012 at 12:43:22 PM

[up] Where do you think the danger lies?

I'll outline some of my reasons why I think it won't happen:

  • The major world powers capable of waging war on each other at any scale that could be considered a "world war" are all too economically dependent on one another.
  • No serious diplomatic tensions exist among any of the world's great powers; the relationship between the US and China is more a rivalry than anything else and any animosities NATO has with Russia are just aging lingerers from the Cold War.
  • The United Nations.
  • The ease of travel and especially the rise of student exchange programs; it's a lot harder to shoot someone in the face if you're friends with them, or know someone just like them.
  • Mutually Assured Destruction
  • The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, which not only released most Cold War tensions but also turned NATO into an ironclad juggernaut who can barely be touched by any other military alliance (the only one that could pose a threat to them is the SCO.)
  • The general modern de-emphasis on military strength in favor of economic strength.

edited 19th Feb '12 12:50:54 PM by somerandomdude

ok boomer
Carciofus Is that cake frosting? from Alpha Tucanae I Since: May, 2010
Is that cake frosting?
#11: Feb 19th 2012 at 1:05:28 PM

Where do you think the danger lies?
In the same place where danger of war always lied. Limited resources, shifting balances of power, and disregard for other people's well-being.

The points that you mention certainly are valid, and make the possibility of outright war less likely in the short term; but it would take very little — for example, a major global-scale ecological disaster — to cause very dangerous unbalances. And the current economic and ecologic models are, let's be frank, untenable in a long-term perspective: we can get off them nicely*

, or we will fall off.

Remember, until shortly before World War I, Europe was peaceful and optimistic...

edited 19th Feb '12 1:06:26 PM by Carciofus

But they seem to know where they are going, the ones who walk away from Omelas.
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#12: Feb 19th 2012 at 1:11:41 PM

I did say next 100 years (allowing for most major global geopolitical changes to be mostly ignored), though you have a point about some major event tipping the scales. My argument is, essentially, the possible "benefits" (insofar as they can be called that) of war are outweighed by the downsides.

Incidentally, what plausible scenarios can you think of that would lead up to World War III?

edited 19th Feb '12 1:17:42 PM by somerandomdude

ok boomer
Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#13: Feb 19th 2012 at 1:37:08 PM

Easy.

Assuming that the European Union (WHICH IT WILL!) becomes the United Federal Communities of the States of the European Continent, China will, in its quest to gain resources and a bunch of other crap, will invade the UFCSEC.

somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#14: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:14:22 PM

[up] But China already has extensive economic cooperation with the EU and US. Not to mention that with all that we owe them they have us by the short 'n curlies.

Why would you kill someone who owed you money?

ok boomer
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#15: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:16:37 PM

We'll never really know until its right there. WWII was the even worse aftershock of WWI and its sloppy peace handling. WWI, however, didn't just show up overnight. It was a gradual process of building alliances, arms races, old grudges that got involved with each other to the point that things seemingly completely unrelated triggered each other.

For all we know, things currently unrelated to each other now that could possibly spark violence between two or more powers could get tangled with other situations or scenarios that drag other countries into the fray. And boom, WWIII.

"Why would you kill someone who owed you money?"

Wars or near wars have erupted before because one country couldn't or wouldn't pay their debts.

edited 19th Feb '12 2:17:57 PM by Parable

Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#16: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:18:48 PM

There's the thing.

After the economic collapse of the Euro, the Parliament of the European Union forces through an Emergency Act, forcing all 27 states to cede national sovereignty to the Parliament, in order to bring about a stronger support for the Euro II, and better integration of EC Regulations and Directives. In true Eurocratic fashion, the new union is named the United Federal Communities of the States of the European Continent (UFCSEC).

However, being deep in debt to China, the Chinese decide to take reparations - by force.

[up]Indeed. Many triggers were the cause of WWII.

edited 19th Feb '12 2:19:20 PM by Inhopelessguy

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#17: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:22:40 PM

"United Federal Communities of the States of the European Continent"

I'm curious as to whether this is a real hypothetical name for such a thing or you just thought it up right now.

Erock Proud Canadian from Toronto Since: Jul, 2009
Proud Canadian
#18: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:22:42 PM

No.

If you don't like a single Frank Ocean song, you have no soul.
Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#19: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:25:14 PM

@ Parashoot. It's actually my pet theory. I'm so pro-EU I make those on the Continent think I'm crazy. That name is the fusion of several of the former names of the EU. Originally the European Coal and Steal Community, then the European Economic Community, then the European Community, then the European Union, and (IT SHALL HAPPEN) the United Federal Communities of the States of the European Continent. Or, Europa for short.

Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#20: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:27:30 PM

United States of Europe was too short?

Flyboy Decemberist from the United States Since: Dec, 2011
Decemberist
#21: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:29:00 PM

Hopey is awful at naming real life government things. I keep telling him it'll probably just be called the European Federation if it ever happens, but he insists on his crazy names. tongue

"Shit, our candidate is a psychopath. Better replace him with Newt Gingrich."
somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#22: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:30:13 PM

The thing is though, like I said above, China would be picking a fight it couldn't win. China itself certainly has the capability, but its allies don't, and that's where the West gets them militarily. When you mess with Europe, you mess with the US, and then you mess with Australia, and so on. NATO consists of some of the most powerful countries in the world, three of which are nuclear weapons states and all of which have allies up the wazoo. China has...Russia? Their military page is called Russians With Rusting Rockets for a reason. Vietnam? Laos? North Korea? Won't touch NATO.

Also, for the hypothetical united Europe, I'd go with "United Confederation of European States" (UCES) or just "European Confederation" (EC). I don't think Europe will ever be truly united as a federal republic, but a closely connected confederation is certainly plausible.

edited 19th Feb '12 2:33:53 PM by somerandomdude

ok boomer
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#23: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:31:58 PM

Hope, if you were around for the American Revolution you would have wanted to call it the United Free States of Delaware, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Georgia, Connecticut, Massachusetts Bay, Maryland, South Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, New York, North Carolina, and Rhode Island and Providence Plantations, wouldn't you?

[up] That's now. Who knows what can change in the future. And just because something is a bad idea has never stopped people from trying it anyway.

edited 19th Feb '12 2:33:25 PM by Parable

Inhopelessguy Since: Apr, 2011
#24: Feb 19th 2012 at 2:35:48 PM

No! It's an affectionate parody of European Union Regulations! It shall be the United Federal Communities of the States of the European Continent! It will be a federal union! When the ECSC was formed, the idea that Europe will be united.

@ Some. Indeed so. But remember that military spending as part of GDP in the EU is much lower than that of China, IIRC. No, wait, I was wrong. However, things may be different in the future. Remember, military spending in the EU is going down, whereas in China, it's going up.

@ Parashoot. Sure!

edited 19th Feb '12 2:36:33 PM by Inhopelessguy

somerandomdude from Dark side of the moon Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: How YOU doin'?
#25: Feb 21st 2012 at 11:29:27 AM

Mere military spending does not necessarily imply that they're interested in starting a world war. It could just as easily (and probably does) mean that China is interested in being a superpower of every kind.

And that still leaves the allies issue open. An alliance of Russia and China could pose a threat to NATO, but unless Russia gets its act together militarily I don't see a world war breaking out that would last very long.

Also, personally, as an exchange student who knows people and has friends in China, the prospect of going to war with China fucking terrifies me. Also because, as a 17-year-old male, I would most likely be conscripted in any ensuing draft.

edited 21st Feb '12 11:31:38 AM by somerandomdude

ok boomer

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