Electric Vehicles (Cars, Planes, and Ships)

I had that same idea a a few weeks ago at a carshow whe there was one there! DO WANT!

Now, the question is: Will they be restored cars or brand-new fresh-off-the-production-line ones?

helf half. This "new delorian" company, actually just bought the rights and left over parts of the old delorian company. Turns out theres were warehouses full of the parts, so these guys put em together and sell them, and they are really all new cars. Some of the parts are refurbish somtimes, and they also rebuild old, used ones for alot cheaper. Don't know what they'll do for electric, but it'll likely be the same deal- unused parts or rebuild an old one.

When the Chevy Volt first came out, I did the math, comparing the price of the Volt (about $30K), my expected increase in electric utility bills, and the cost of the car I now own (20 mpg city), and it didn't quite add up to a savings. Close, but not quite.

I suppose the write-off would favour a gasoline vehicle over an electric one; the latter being harder to sell some years down the road.

^^Yeah, the Volt is a tad overpriced, but the upcoming Cadillac Converj/ELR will hopefully sell better because:

• By the time it comes out, the Voltech technology will be hopefully improved.
• It's a 2+2 fastback coupe, and that has to attract some demographic.
• It will be priced higher, being a luxury car, so complaints of overpricing will be stemmed.

Unless you were talking about saving money on gas, in which case, disregard.

edited 23rd Oct '11 4:04:56 AM by RocketDude

I've done calculations on the gas savings thing, and it would pay off...If you didn;t need a new battery every 8-10 years. Overall, you get about 2000 dollars back, before you try to pay for the car with it. Best case secnario, maybe 3-4k if you try to optimise battery life(which pretty much reqires OCD). thats assuming gas prices stay where they are. Obviosly it'll be better if they go up, but it's a gambble no matter what.

My mom's planning to get a Nissan Leaf in a couple years. I'm told it costs $1-2 a day in electricity bills, and the one guy I know who has one just charges the battery at work anyways. They apparently cost $38,395 and the government is going to give an $8,500 rebate on them, so cost-wise they're looking pretty good.

The tax-incentive almost pays for the first battery replacement. Unless you get a used one, which will suposodly work almost as long but be only a few hundred dollars. Sure...

The battery that's supposed to last 10 years, yes.

If you spend about $200/month on gas, versus $60/month on electricity, you save $16,800 in that time.

Even supposing the battery only lasts half that time, you save $8,400 which is also nearly a new battery.

Yes, but it removes much of the advantage. the car itself costs alot more then average cars, and the battery just chops down part of the advantage.

Well, with all sorts of electric vehicles (including concepts) on the way (the Fisker Surf shooting-brake, the Tesla Model S, the Jaguar CX-75 supercar, the BMW i3 city car and i8 sports car, the Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG E-Cell, Audi R8 E-Tron and the Land Rover Defender EV), the market for electric cars could become profitable.

Those companies certainly expect it to, otherwise they wouldn't introduce said vehicles.

tell that to the EV-1. Or whats left of them anyway.

I just discovered this thread after looking for a more suitable place to talk about what's going on with Tesla. Much to my wife's chagrin, this company is my new obsession of late, as I'm excited by all of their products, from EVs to home solar.

Anyway, the news today (yesterday?) is that Tesla's Q2 2019 deliveries beat expectations, setting new production (87,048) and delivery (95,200) records. Here's Tesla's press release and the CNBC article, which is ironically positive given how bearish CNBC is on the company.

I hope the short sellers cry themselves to sleep on their piles of dirty money.

Anyway, Tesla continues to prove that the market demand for electric vehicles is continuing to grow. Speaking personally, I fully intend to buy a Model 3 once my current IC car is paid off, which would be in 2022 or 2023. New if possible: even though it's a bit pricey to go that way, I've heard things about the used EV market that give me pause.

Sadly, my nearest Tesla dealer is an hour away, but with the new mobile service they're talking about, that may not be as much of a hindrance. There's a supercharger in a shopping mall very close to where I live, too. Putting a charging station in my house could be a bit of an extra expense. I'd want to look into that as well as possible solar panels at some point.

Tesla is currently building the Gigafactory 3 in China, which could produce up to a half-million cars per year for that market once it goes fully online. Production is expected to start in 3-6 months. After that, they are looking to add a Gigafactory in Europe. I'd honestly like to see a second in the Americas, but these things take time. I heard an estimate that we'd need the equivalent of 20 Gigafactories globally to fully replace IC car production with EVs.

The critical bottleneck is batteries, of course. With Gigafactory 1, Tesla literally doubled the global production of lithium-ion batteries, and it's going to have to keep ramping up at a steep pace to keep up with demand.

Speaking of the future, the Model Y crossover SUV, which could have double or more the market as the Model 3, is around 9 months from mass production. I haven't heard about a street date for the Tesla Semi Truck, and the Tesla Pickup is supposed to be unveiled toward the end of the summer. I cordially hate pickup trucks so I'm not a potential customer, but I am very curious to see what this thing looks like.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 3rd 2019 at 12:29:29 PM

Fighteer, necroing a thread! Wow.

In any case, the electrification of our economy is a necessary step toward liberating ourselves from fossil fuels, and the transportation industry is critical for that, for obvious reasons.

George Will (is he still alive?) apparently wrote an article critical of EV's recently, and here is the rejoinder by the Union of Concerned Scientists. Some highlights:

"...Electric vehicles are considerably cleaner than gasoline-powered cars, and this advantage is only increasing with time...."

"...This move to cleaner electricity means switching from gasoline to electricity to power our cars and trucks will lower global warming emissions..."

"...Electric vehicles are cheaper to operate and maintain than traditional gasoline vehicles..."

The Union provides citations to back up all of these claims. It's important that we electrify as many sectors of our economy as possible as quickly as possible, not only to mitigate the effects of global warming, but so that the US can remain technologically competitive. The world (esp Europe) is going to EV's in a big way, and we want them to be buying our products. The government should provide incentives toward EV manufacturing and purchase.

Meanwhile Tesla has been investing in electric aircraft research, which is great news. Aircraft and shipping are the two major forms of transportation for which we still need practical prototypes.

Elon Musk said a little while ago, when asked about electric aircraft, that the energy density of batteries needs to hit 400 Wh/kg (Watt-hours per kilogram) to replace petroleum fuel in commercial airplanes, when the current density is around 300. Hobby aircraft certainly exist, but they aren't efficient enough to use for mass transport.

The issue isn't just energy density, but that you can lose a lot of mechanical complexity and mechanical waste by switching from internal combustion to electric motors. The best IC engines are about 30 percent efficient at turning stored energy to mechanical energy, versus 90 percent for electric motors, and the latter weigh a lot less for the same power output. So the loss of energy density by switching from kerosene to batteries is made up for by the increase in efficiency and power-to-weight ratio of the other parts of the engines, with the break-even point at 400 Wh/kg.

This is only about a 33% improvement from current technology, and there's every reason to believe that it's possible to achieve.

Article on Electrek

Airports and other transit hubs could install solar panels to run their facilities, and those panels could supply batteries that charge the vehicles as they are serviced, significantly reducing their carbon footprint. The reduced mechanical complexity would improve the lifespan of the engines and reduce maintenance costs, for even more savings. I'd imagine that electric jets would be quieter than traditional aircraft as well, lowering noise pollution.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 3rd 2019 at 3:56:01 PM

I own an electric Ford Focus now and love it. The 76 mile range is enough to get me to work and home, with a little extra if I need to run errands.

I test drove a Model 3 a couple weeks ago, and that car is nice. The autopilot saved me from getting cut-off during my test drive - there's no way I would've hit the brakes in time, but the car has faster reflexes than I do. That's probably what I'll get once the Focus dies (It's got 85k miles on it, so it's been around).

Tesla has no pre-owned Model 3s in stock, so you're paying the full $35k (minus the tax rebate) to get one.

Also, if you don't have a 220v plug available to charge at home, you'll have to use their charging stations, which could be a pain. I've already got the hookup, so that would make my life easier.

Tesla apparently charges a $10,000 re-certification fee if you buy a pre-owned Tesla third-party, so I'd recommend taking that into account when looking.

Does anyone know of a reliable/trustworthy comparison between hybrids and electric? I want to get something more environmentally friendly as soon as possible, but I live in an apartment and I'm worried about getting power to an electric car, while I already know a dozen gas stations for hybrids.

Just do the best you can. The less petroleum you burn, the better off we are. Here is a reference for you.

Edited by DeMarquis on Jul 3rd 2019 at 10:03:16 AM

If you have the money, or are in a position to invest against future savings, the best combo is home solar, a home battery pack, and an electric vehicle. This brings your carbon footprint as close to zero as is reasonably achievable. If you live in an apartment building, only the vehicle is under your direct control. That said, you might ask if the building is prepared to install charging stations for EVs in its garage. This can be a big draw for more environmentally-conscious (and affluent) tenants.

Apartment living with an EV is not really a problem since every metropolitan area has plenty of charging stations available. While superchargers can only charge Teslas, Teslas are also compatible with standard chargers, which is what you'd use for any other EV. Google Maps should tell you the locations of all charging stations near you. If you commute to work, find out if your employer has or is willing to install chargers at their parking lot.

The thing to remember is that charging is slower than fueling with gasoline, so you should plan your travel around that hour-ish break. Have lunch or go shopping while you wait.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 4th 2019 at 12:20:41 PM

Crossover with the self-driving topic: Ford and VW are teaming up to compete with Tesla in both EVs and self-driving. Neither of these companies — in fact, none of the major auto manufacturers — have significant expertise in either market. The most popular mass-market EVs have, at best, half the range of a standard Tesla vehicle and nobody else is even close to FSD: the best they can do right now is "geo-fenced areas with good weather".

Let's hope they can deliver anyway. There needs to be decent competition in this market.

I agree. Having any mass market reliant on a single manufacturer is never a good idea, either from the point of view of redundancy or of economics.

That said, the major manufacturers are crippled due to their own sunk investment in internal combustion. Simply put, their entire corporate mass is leveraged to build and sell petroleum vehicles and this inertia creates intense resistance to the fundamental changes needed to transition to full EV production.

Also, it's not just the manufacturers. One of the reasons that Tesla can build such high-quality cars so quickly is that they are highly vertical. They can design and build their own parts almost entirely in-house. While a wide horizontal supply chain provides significant advantages in economies of scale, it is also highly resistant to change.

Ford, GM, etc. don't really build cars any more. They build engines, and assemble the cars from parts made around the world. To completely electrify that supply chain is not only difficult and expensive, but means developing a wholly different kind of expertise, alien to what they are familiar with.

The costs of electrification also run into investor inertia. These companies are looking at a years-long transition period with high R&D costs, low profits, and no guarantees of success, which of course gets them into trouble with the stock market and their "fiduciary duty". Making the call that it's a long-term move to avoid becoming completely obsolete is not for the timid or conservative mindset.

The other major problem is dealers. Dealers wag the dog to a truly ridiculous degree; they are intensely conservative when it comes to protecting their business model, and EVs create a huge disruption in that model. Why? Dealers get most of their profit (by some measures, as much as 50 percent) from service, and EVs require vastly less maintenance than IC cars.

To use Tesla as an example, the power train consists of a few electric motors. That's the only moving part involved in making the car go. There are no gaskets to fail, no belts to wear out, no oil to change, no transmission or transmission fluid. The only routine maintenance for an EV is tires (and maybe washer fluid). Tesla is developing a network of mobile service vans that can go to a driver's location and fix most problems on the spot — even simple body repairs like bumper replacement, further taking dealers out of the equation.

Dealers hate this and I've heard stories that even when manufacturers offer EVs, they deliberately sabotage sales by not advertising them, hiding them away from prospective customers, and steering customers towards IC cars.

A lesser victim of electrification is gas stations. If you can charge your car by plugging it into an electrical outlet (well, not exactly, but close enough), gas stations will be as obsolete as the horse stable. Sure, they can install EV chargers, and that would be a reasonable way to transition, but we'll need a lot fewer of them in the long run. Never mind that the profit margin in selling electricity is even lower than selling gasoline.

Now, it does take longer to charge an EV than a gas car, so gas stations could adapt by offering a more restful experience, with lounging and dining areas, but that would be almost as big of a change as getting rid of gas pumps. Most gas stations are designed to get people in and out as fast as possible with handfuls of cheap snacks.

All this is to say that one of the major reasons Tesla has been able to achieve such success in such a short period of time is that they are literally building a supply chain from the ground up, bypassing all the existing entrenched interests. The sheer mass of the major manufacturers makes a rapid pivot to compete with Tesla incredibly difficult, never mind much more expensive.

I'm sure it will happen, eventually. They'll have to compete because they'll simply die out otherwise. But it'll be a painful experience.

Edited by Fighteer on Jul 16th 2019 at 3:51:26 PM

That's why we need some government intervention in this area. It's not unlike when gas powered cars were first introduced- they had to create an entire infrastructure to support them, including paved roads, systems for traffic enforcement, gas stations and national standards to regulate them by, and so forth. In some ways this is even bigger than that, because they weren't abandoning a highly expensive infrastructure to replace it with. I rather doubt that market forces alone are going to get us there in a timely fashion.