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The Paul Krugman Thread

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TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#26: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:05:31 PM

The black line is aggregate expectations of federal and state/local government. Aka, that's where we can expect to be if NO bill is passed.

I guess the moral of the story is that we have to keep at it. Even if the Bill formerly known as the American Jobs Act is passed, we can't just clap our hands together and say "Mission Accomplished."

edited 18th Sep '11 8:06:34 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

USAF713 I changed accounts. from the United States Since: Sep, 2010
I changed accounts.
#27: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:07:27 PM

Ah. So the Federal system is counter-intuitive to Keynesian economics because instead of having to control 1 government, the Keynesian economists have to control thousands.

Well then. I guess the economists better start learning politics. [lol]

I am now known as Flyboy.
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#28: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:09:25 PM

What do you think Krugman's general MO is? His entire mission statement is that "If you only look at the economics and don't look at the politics, you only get 1/2 of the story: it doesn't make sense."

MajorTom Since: Dec, 2009
#29: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:12:47 PM

His entire mission statement is that "If you only look at the economics and don't look at the politics, you only get 1/2 of the story: it doesn't make sense."

And yet his communication of that fails harder than a drug addict who has no money. The reasons why have already been said in this thread.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#30: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:13:49 PM

If you're deliberately looking for something to nitpick sure. Or if you're not very good at reading graphs. Other than that, he's a bit vitriolic at times, but he's a guy who cares more about fighting the good fight and pointing out the truth than being polite.

Midgetsnowman Since: Jan, 2010
#31: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:15:28 PM

[up][up]

Economists arent speech and debate people.

edited 18th Sep '11 8:15:41 PM by Midgetsnowman

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#32: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:16:08 PM

Point in case Case in point: Whenever Krugman is at the same table as Bill O'Reily he constantly ends up retreating every time Bill acts like he's going to leap across the table and smack him in the jaw.

edited 18th Sep '11 8:16:28 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

MajorTom Since: Dec, 2009
#33: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:16:34 PM

^^ And that's their biggest problem. Poor communication of an idea is worse than having a bad idea.

edited 18th Sep '11 8:16:47 PM by MajorTom

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#34: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:18:11 PM

... No it isn't.

That's seriously so utterly beyond absurd, I'm not sure how to respond. I mean, it's less persuasive, but at least your [the person with a good idea but bad communication] position is based on reason, rather than mindless rhetoric.

edited 18th Sep '11 8:18:56 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

MajorTom Since: Dec, 2009
#35: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:21:17 PM

^ Yeah it is. If you can't communicate an idea simply and effectively, how can you get support for it? All the evidence in the world means nothing if you can't communicate it to someone who can help with it.

There's a saying "business communication to achieve business results". You don't give technical jargon to a manager/executive to get funding for a software project, likewise you don't speak in academia when trying to rally support from politicians (because a lot of them either don't like it or are excluded from academic circles) for economic projects.

USAF713 I changed accounts. from the United States Since: Sep, 2010
I changed accounts.
#36: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:21:59 PM

Poor communication of an idea is worse than having a bad idea.

... No it isn't.

Actually, yeah, it is.

I don't really know how to conceptualize how many good ideas flit past us every day because we can't articulate them...

I am now known as Flyboy.
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#37: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:22:53 PM

Tom, truth transcends that crap. You can't make an argument that falsehoods are better just because the truth is too complicated to put in a 30 second soundbyte.

[up] Okay USAF. Make the argument. Why is having a bad idea somehow better than having a complex idea?

Now, an oversimplification is better than no information at all if you point out that, by virtue of being a simplification, strict application of the point may run into contradictions. But that's not what Tom is saying. Tom is saying "complex ideas are inherently worse than false ideas."

edited 18th Sep '11 8:24:28 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

Karmakin Moar and Moar and Moar Since: Aug, 2009
Moar and Moar and Moar
#38: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:24:24 PM

You can argue that it's more powerful. But better? It's only better if politics is nothing more than a game. (That line of thought isn't uncommon)

Democracy is the process in which we determine the government that we deserve
USAF713 I changed accounts. from the United States Since: Sep, 2010
I changed accounts.
#39: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:24:36 PM

Oh, falsehoods are never better than truth.

This isn't theory, this is reality. And in reality, people are attracted to charisma, not truth.

It's when the charismatic people tell the truth that the miracles of reality are beheld.

I am now known as Flyboy.
MajorTom Since: Dec, 2009
#40: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:24:55 PM

Tom, truth transcends that crap.

Ahahahahahahaha!! Oh how naive and I expected you to be more cynical about things. If truth cannot be communicated it will be disregarded. Poorly communicated truth does not get checks signed in your favor or votes cast in one direction you want.

TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#41: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:25:38 PM

The point is, all the simple "bad ideas" are wrong. They're false. They're demonstrably false. They can be proven to be false. They ARE proven to be false. Repeatedly. By Paul Krugman. But he's apparently too complex, so people take the false ideas anyway. It's asinine. It's ridiculous. It's indefensible, and yet it's defended.

[up] I didn't mean as in "People will buy complex ideas." I'm not talking about "winning the political game" I'm talking about "having intellectual honesty." If all you wanna do is win the political game, fine, but that's not what I'm talking about.

If you want to make the argument that Krugman is inefficient as a figurehead for the liberal movement because he's not good at talking to people, I can certainly say that's a plausible theory.

edited 18th Sep '11 8:26:42 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

Karmakin Moar and Moar and Moar Since: Aug, 2009
Moar and Moar and Moar
#42: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:26:04 PM

While you're right Tom, that is something to be mourned, not something to be celebrated.

Democracy is the process in which we determine the government that we deserve
USAF713 I changed accounts. from the United States Since: Sep, 2010
I changed accounts.
#43: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:26:55 PM

We're (well, I'm) not saying it's right.

We're saying that's how it works.

Krugman can be all different kinds of right, but if he can't convince people of that, it doesn't mean a thing.

I am now known as Flyboy.
MajorTom Since: Dec, 2009
#44: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:27:51 PM

^^^ Because whatever you say they are "wrong" on is so poorly communicated those who oppose it and conceivably be persuaded do not understand what they are being yelled at for.

And when you get people who don't understand why they are wrong, you get people who become defensive. And when you get defensive people that's when all pretense of them listening to you in the first place falls apart.

edited 18th Sep '11 8:28:02 PM by MajorTom

Enkufka Wandering Student ಠ_ಠ from Bay of White fish Since: Dec, 2009
Wandering Student ಠ_ಠ
#45: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:28:13 PM

I'm with tomu. The damage done by a bad idea is worse than the inability to communicate a good idea.

If a truly bad idea gets passed, you get stuff like the recession. If a mediocre idea gets passed, its just mediocre. People mostly go about their day as normal. But a bad idea? Like "Lower gas prices by letting everyone use the gas reserve" bad? That leaves a lasting impression.A bad one.

Very big Daydream Believer. "That's not knowledge, that's a crapshoot!" -Al Murray "Welcome to QI" -Stephen Fry
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#46: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:29:28 PM

Well, let me be frank: I don't think Krugman is trying to recruit to the liberal cause. Rather, I think he takes it as an academic exercise to have an accurate model of reality. He is a Cassandra as it were-someone who is always right but is never listened to, to disastrous consequences.

It's my suspicion that that doesn't bother him, except for the disastrous consequences part.

DarkConfidant Since: Aug, 2011
#47: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:30:03 PM

Indeed, better to have the status quo because the good idea wasn't sufficiently persuasive, than to have the bad idea that everyone could get behind.

USAF713 I changed accounts. from the United States Since: Sep, 2010
I changed accounts.
#48: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:30:12 PM

The statement really should read, "a well-communicated bad idea is infinitely more dangerous than a poorly-communicated good idea."

It's worse to have idiocy executed well than intelligence executed idiotically...

I am now known as Flyboy.
TheyCallMeTomu Since: Jan, 2001 Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
#49: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:32:01 PM

Works.

Again, Krugman is, fundamentally, an academic. He's less interested in convincing people to take a given action, than he is in having the most accurate model. He is, to that extent, a social scientist. Now, would we all be better off if we used the accurate models? Sure. And humanitarians should theoretically work to make sure that we do. That's ... not really Krugman's skill set.

He's pretty good at explaining how things work, predicting the consequences of various policies, etc. But a diplomat he ain't.

I'm precisely the same way <shrugs> Naively, I assume people will "listen to reason and choose the model that best reflects reality."

edited 18th Sep '11 8:32:56 PM by TheyCallMeTomu

USAF713 I changed accounts. from the United States Since: Sep, 2010
I changed accounts.
#50: Sep 18th 2011 at 8:37:35 PM

Social scientists don't do the world any good if they won't stand up for what they believe.

He needs a proxy, I suppose. Someone who agrees with him but is (probably) not as good at figuring out exactly how to do it, and yet is more charismatic than he is...

I am now known as Flyboy.

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