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Dec 9th 2018 at 9:32:37 AM

So how credible is this source?

AzurePaladin The Blue Knight from The Feywild Relationship Status: Mu
The Blue Knight
Dec 9th 2018 at 10:03:23 AM

[up] New York Times level credible. So, not guaranteed, but credible enough to at least take seriously.

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Grafite Relationship Status: You cannot grasp the true form
Dec 9th 2018 at 3:34:05 PM

The study itself was published in the Nature magazine, so it's very credible in my opinion. Also, with newfound prosperity, it was natural to see China and India's emissions increase. As for the United States, it must be that "clean coal" not working as planned.

Life is unfair...
Dec 9th 2018 at 4:56:42 PM

I know China's made pledges to utilize cleaner technology but what about India?

And as for the U.S. we can only wait till trump is out and try to minimize the damage as much as possible.

TechPriest90 Servant of the Omnissiah from Collegia Titanica, Mars, Sol System Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Servant of the Omnissiah
Dec 16th 2018 at 10:50:30 AM

[up][up] The Indians are trying, as best as they can. They've got a whole other host of problems though. I did remember reading someplace that they were on track to hit their climate targets.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/10/11/few-countries-are-meeting-paris-climate-goals-here-are-ones-that-are/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.ab50cf46a74d

https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/india/

The problem in India mostly comes from Farmers who have this bad habit (though one could also call it a desperate choice) to burn crop stubble at the end of every harvest season, instead of disposing of it safely - because it's too expensive for them. So far, the Government hasn't come up with an incentive to do otherwise, and they're too dirt poor to do it themselves.

Edited by TechPriest90 on Dec 16th 2018 at 1:54:23 PM

I hold the secrets of the machine.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland Relationship Status: Mu
Dec 16th 2018 at 10:56:12 AM

The shortness of that list of "compliant" countries is not encouraging.

Here, I was thinking. I don't think we can stop global warming below 2 C, so we ought to focus on reducing its impact.

TechPriest90 Servant of the Omnissiah from Collegia Titanica, Mars, Sol System Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Servant of the Omnissiah
Dec 16th 2018 at 11:04:25 AM

[up] Reducing the impact is going to be even more expensive than actually meeting the targets. So no.

It's not that it can't be done - it's just that there's no political will in many countries to do it, for a number of reasons.

Note that every single country in the compliance list is one that isn't pumping out it's own oil and gas, or has an incentive to switch to renewables because the cost of using non-renewables is about as high as, or more, than using renewables.

Until that kind of incentive shows up - that compliance list is going to be short. Or, to put it bluntly, the price of gas has to shoot through the roof before most countries decide it's better to switch over.

Given how much of the output is from the United States and Russia, with oil and gas being cheaper there than anywhere else except the Middle East - good luck with that.

I hold the secrets of the machine.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland Relationship Status: Mu
Dec 16th 2018 at 11:09:51 AM

What has "expensive" to do with this? The point is that the less costly option is increasingly looking impossible, not that it'd be cheaper in theory.

Spinosegnosaurus77 Here to scare you straight from Ontario, Canada Relationship Status: Seeking boyfriend-free girl
danime91 Relationship Status: Above such petty unnecessities
Feb 6th 2019 at 9:11:12 AM

It's only one data point. If 2019 ends up not being in the top 3 hottest years on record, then I'll believe that maybe global warming is slowing down a bit.

SeptimusHeap from Switzerland Relationship Status: Mu
Feb 6th 2019 at 9:35:11 AM

No, 2015 saw the Godzilla Niño and that probably is petering out now. I don't think there is any indication whatsoever that it's slowing down.

Feb 6th 2019 at 12:58:37 PM

Does that mean we’re starting to curb global warming?

Global warming is, by definition, a long-term trend. You're not going to know this year, next year or the year after how 2018 will factor into a future trend until a useful number of future years have passed.

That said, I agree with Septimus Heap, although I would (cautiously?) look at both El Niño and La Niña events. The reason temperatures seem to be hotter in El Niño years is because El Niño transfers a greater amount of heat from ocean to air than normal (oceanic surface temperatures are hotter). However, La Niña events lock more heat in the ocean and transfer less heat from ocean to air (oceanic surface temperatures are cooler).

2016 was an El Niño year but 2018 was a La Niña year. As a result, 2018 has been 'cooler' than the previous years (but it's still managed to be the fourth consecutive year that the temperature change from the 1800s broke 1°C). However, that temperature being discussed is global surface temperature (so surface temperature across both land and sea). Oceanic temperatures matter.

Oceanic temperatures have been breaking heat records of their own and you can't compare a Niño year and a Niña year to each other because of their different impacts on global surface temperatures. Between land and ocean temperatures, we're seeing records being broken almost every year, and 2018 set a new record, too: it was the hottest La Niña year on record... and the 2018 La Niña conditions are actually considered rather mild compared to some historical La Niña events.

Edited by Wyldchyld on Feb 6th 2019 at 9:01:01 AM

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SeptimusHeap from Switzerland Relationship Status: Mu
Feb 6th 2019 at 1:18:02 PM

I think we need to begin discuss Niño and Niña in terms of year transitions and not years. They occur during Northern Hemisphere winter and using year numbers makes confusion.

Thus we should say 2018-2019 Niño if we are talking about this event. And not 2018 or 2019.

Feb 6th 2019 at 1:25:41 PM

Yeah... I did and hum and hah over how to word my post given that there isn't a clear scientific definition of what classifies as a 'La Niña year'. I may have stripped my post down too much.

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Grafite Relationship Status: You cannot grasp the true form
Feb 6th 2019 at 2:52:24 PM

Plus, it's still in the top four of all recorded years in history, along with the immediate preceding years, I don't know how one can look at it positively.

Life is unfair...
Euodiachloris Relationship Status: Is that a kind of food?
Feb 6th 2019 at 3:10:08 PM

[up]I know.

Yet, many will somehow manage to. -_-'

TerminusEst from Finland
Feb 7th 2019 at 4:51:33 AM

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Releases Green New Deal Outline

Whether it's a deadly cold snap or a hole in an Antarctic glacier or a terrifying new report, there seem to be constant reminders now of the dangers that climate change poses to humanity.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., think they have a start to a solution. Thursday they are introducing a framework defining what they call a "Green New Deal" — what they foresee as a massive policy package that would remake the U.S. economy and, they hope, eliminate all U.S. carbon emissions.

That's a really big — potentially impossibly big — undertaking.

Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland Relationship Status: Mu
KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
Mar 7th 2019 at 3:19:19 PM

Vice: "The Climate Change Paper So Depressing It's Sending People to Therapy"

Vice might not be the best of sources, but it was the one I stumbled upon, so it's the one I decided to link.

Basically, the paper in question concludes that societal collapse due to climate change is inevitable within the next ten years.

Now, I don't mean to fearmonger here, but that paints a rather grim picture. Thoughts?

Oh God! Natural light!
Mar 7th 2019 at 3:26:08 PM

Do you think the paper even is accurate, I know how big a threat climate change can be but I think ten years is pushing it a bit.

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
Mar 7th 2019 at 3:26:48 PM

Well, I don't know, hence my bringing it here.

Oh God! Natural light!
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas
Professional Forum Ninja
Mar 7th 2019 at 3:35:55 PM

I read the Vice article and it says the paper itself talks about societal decline, not collapse, due to climate change is inevitable and imminent. Collapse could be anywhere from a decade to centuries from now.

And by extension, most previous societies underwent a decline before they collapsed by an outside force.

So I'll make a resolution That I'll never make another one Just enjoy this ride on my trip around the sun Until it's done

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