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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#248001: Jun 30th 2018 at 10:19:04 PM

Second Bush term.

The one where Bush, sadly, won fairly as an incumbent.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Imca (Veteran)
#248002: Jun 30th 2018 at 10:22:34 PM

I see, actualy that brings up a question I have.... Incumbent advantage is pretty huge... are there any examples in recent history of one actually loosing?

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#248003: Jun 30th 2018 at 10:23:42 PM

Carter and Bush I, and maybe Ford, I guess.

Imca (Veteran)
#248004: Jun 30th 2018 at 10:25:12 PM

So it does happen from time to time?

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#248005: Jun 30th 2018 at 10:33:12 PM

It does, but rarely. There were a lot of things that went into Clinton being able to beat Bush Sr like Clinton being able to unify the camps in the democratic party behind him thanks to his charisma, Bush going back on his promise to not raise taxes that lowered his approval ratings, people focusing more on domestic issues over foreign policy accomplishments, a third-party candidate that actually was pretty big for the time, etc.

Edited by Draghinazzo on Jun 30th 2018 at 1:35:05 PM

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#248006: Jun 30th 2018 at 10:34:34 PM

Yeah. It's an advantage, not a guarantee. There's been plenty of one term presidents. And while it's an advantage to have been in office and thus be a known factor, it's not the only thing in play during an election.

Most of those who served two terms weren't historically unpopular during their first term, for instance.

[up]Ross Perot, right? That guy was an odd duck.

Edited by AceofSpades on Jun 30th 2018 at 12:36:30 PM

LordYAM Since: Jan, 2015
#248007: Jul 1st 2018 at 12:40:58 AM

I’ve heard Perots influence was overstated. Clinton beat bush in other ways.

It’s like how jimmy carter lost because of the botched handling of iran, Reagan most likely persuading the Iranians to not release the hostages until after Reagan won, that he had a low popularity rating etc

Kennedy didn’t help but even if he hadn’t run carter was screwed.

Hubert Humphrey actually came pretty close to beating Nixon but rather stupidly refused to reveal public ally that Nixon had sabotaged the Paris peace talks. If he had Nixon would have gone down in flames

KnightofLsama Since: Sep, 2010
#248008: Jul 1st 2018 at 1:03:57 AM

With time flying by, I wonder when participation in the Vietnam War will become irrelevant.

Fairly soon I'd say. Vietnam vets are getting on in age. That war ended in 1975 and someone who was 18 in the last year of the war (basically the youngest possible participant) would be 61 this year. Not old, not by modern standards but enough that it's probably peaked and is all downhill from hear as attrition due to age renders them less politically active. I'd say 10 years or so at a guess.

AlleyOop Since: Oct, 2010
#248009: Jul 1st 2018 at 1:29:19 AM

I remember when political ads would get on Obama's case for not having fought in the Vietnam War, even though he was literally a child when it happened.

Deadbeatloser22 from Disappeared by Space Magic (Great Old One) Relationship Status: Tsundere'ing
#248010: Jul 1st 2018 at 1:57:21 AM

Meanwhile the GOP gets incredibly testy when you point out that Trump is a draft dodger.

"Yup. That tasted purple."
AlityrosThePhilosopher from Over There Since: Jan, 2018
#248011: Jul 1st 2018 at 3:44:05 AM

[up] I can already read the minds feverishly at their keyboards, so in B4 that:
“ He was taking a courageous stand against the statist slavery that is the draft.
Otherwise he’d have volunteered and covered himself with heroic glory (and pussy too, but that goes without saying)“

See? Saved you giving click to those unsavoury sites.

Just as my freedom ends where yours begins my tolerance of you ends where your intolerance toward me begins. As told by an old friend
TheWildWestPyro from Seattle, WA Since: Sep, 2012 Relationship Status: Healthy, deeply-felt respect for this here Shotgun
#248012: Jul 1st 2018 at 4:03:23 AM

To the troper who proposed we fight authoritarianism with authoritarianism:

Look, I will admit, I have some authoritarian leanings myself. Namely, I like centralization, I like high stability, I'm very much in favor in suppressing and banning the Neo-Nazis and neo-fascists and alt-righters on all media platforms and breaking up their paramilitary groups, with force if necessary. Same goes for any Maoist or Stalinist groups. Hell, I'm a Han Chinese. Our people have been under authoritarian monarchies and governments for the last 5000 years, and let's just say most of us (there was opposition plenty to said governments too) were fine with it.

Yet what you are proposing for the USA is a bloody stupid idea. America wasn't founded on a national identity - it was founded on the ideals of democracy. Democracy is the beating heart of America, and to replace it entirely with an authoritarian dictatorship would make the nation riot.

My view, as a foreigner, on America, and studying in it is this: your democratic system is flawed, but damn if it isn't one of the best in the world. Your institutions are solid and idiot-proof, enough to at least restrain Trump from descending into proper murder. It's why I get so distressed at the alt-right, or when white college kids start taking a liking to communism. To betray that system means only destruction for a country that I have fallen in love with, for being so welcoming and warm and a melting pot.

Another argument I tend to operate on is we are better than them, don't become just as bad as them. The Republicans are no longer social conservatives - they have become true reactionaries in their aims, and are trying to push for authoritarianism, ultranationalism and corporatism. The accursed Trump administration has crossed the line so many times, it's horrific, and locking up children in the sizzling heat is perhaps the lowest they've sunk to so far.

It is our duty as sane people who oppose Trump to resist. And by that, I mean doing it our way. We don't go for gulags or some of the edgy shit I've heard. We don't go for trying to oppress the Trumptards by screaming "HOW DOES IT FEEL NOW, [expletives]." No. We protest. We push for legislation. We try people in court. We do mass movements. That's the democratic way, and it's our way, god-fucking-dammit.

As for the irritating, noisy pessimists screaming there's no hope, I hate to be blunt, but it's necessary at a time like this. A simple message for you people: Hope and holding onto it is fucking amazing. It stops you from being apathetic to the chaos and have the will to continue fighting. Giving up hope right now is exactly what the Republicans want.

Oh yeah, and back to the troper I'm addressing this too. I have your same disability. Yet I continue being hoping for a brighter future and not advocating for hurting people. I know that us with that condition enjoy being cathartic, we want to fight injustice by punishing people. But in doing that, it's surprisingly easy to go over the line and become your own antithesis. I'd highly advise looking for better solutions, and not fighting fire with fire. As satisfying it might be to see them shackled and groveling, you'll soon be seeing that same dictatorship getting overthrown by murderous right-wingers.

Plus, again, the USA is founded on democracy. Authoritarianism in any form and implemented fully would result in Washington's ghost strangling whoever was in charge to death during their first night in office.

Anyway, long post. Hope you enjoyed reading it, everybody. I'm out of this shitshow.

Edited by TheWildWestPyro on Jul 1st 2018 at 5:47:13 AM

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#248013: Jul 1st 2018 at 4:13:23 AM

As for the irritating, noisy pessimists screaming there's no hope, I hate to be blunt, but it's necessary at a time like this. A simple message for you people: Hope and holding onto it is fucking amazing. It stops you from being apathetic to the chaos and have the will to continue fighting. Giving up hope right now is for pussies.

50% of the population are pussies. Many of them have a lot of experience in needing to keep up hope in dark times. I don't think the use of a gendered slur really captures that righteous fervor you're going for here.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jul 1st 2018 at 5:16:05 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#248014: Jul 1st 2018 at 4:22:30 AM

Michael Avenatti claims he can reunite 600 families with information he's gathered.

http://www.newsweek.com/michael-avenatti-information-child-immigrants-1003153

Edited by CharlesPhipps on Jul 1st 2018 at 4:22:35 AM

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
PresidentStalkeyes Eats moldy bread and flies into windows from United Kingdom of England-land Since: Feb, 2016 Relationship Status: Do you like me? (Yes ⎕ Definitely ⎕ Absolutely!!! ⎕)
Eats moldy bread and flies into windows
#248015: Jul 1st 2018 at 4:38:55 AM

Re: presidents who got voted out after one term (as brought up on the last page): Again, I must stress that statistically no president before Trump has 'enjoyed' a consistently long negative approval rating this early in their presidency with no real positives to make up for it, and got re-elected. Call me naive if you want, but with odds like that the only way I can see Trump winning in 2020 (without cheating, anyway) is if the Democrats somehow pick an even worse candidate to run against him. And who could possibly be that bad? :V

I get the strong feeling that Trump getting elected at all and the stuff he's been pulling since then has been a massive wake-up call for Democrat voters to not get all self-divisive, but you've probably heard all of this before.

Edited by PresidentStalkeyes on Jul 1st 2018 at 12:45:50 PM

Those sell-by-dates won't stop me because I can't read!
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#248017: Jul 1st 2018 at 5:15:22 AM

Given that we're coming up on the 2018 midterms and fights still break out over whether Bernie should have won the 2016 primary, I wouldn't hold your breath about Democrats learning not to be self-divisive.

Add in gerrymandering that will be constitutionally upheld by a 5-4 Red Supreme Court, voter suppression laws that will also be constitutionally upheld by a 5-4 Red Supreme Court, the incumbent advantage, and the fact that Republicans still adore Trump even as Democrats and Moderates despise him, and I wouldn't count Trump out of re-election.

It's no guarantee, to be sure. But it's easily within the realm of possibility. He might only have 1/3 of the country behind him, but with the Supreme Court on his side abruptly ending any hope of attacking voter suppression measures, he might only need 1/3 of the country. Republicans have a profound demographic advantage in terms of whose votes actually get counted. Their votes are worth more than ours are.

Which is another reason why the Blue Wave is so critical. Democrats need to take at least one house of Congress if we want to stop them from potentially passing even more voter suppression measures. Having full control of all three branches of government for two years gives them a lot of options to guarantee Trump's re-election by disempowering anyone who would vote against him.

And if he does win that re-election, shit's going to get real bad. Putting children in concentration camps is his Year 2 project. Imagine what he'll be doing on Year 6.

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jul 1st 2018 at 6:18:02 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
AlityrosThePhilosopher from Over There Since: Jan, 2018
#248018: Jul 1st 2018 at 5:19:08 AM

[up]×6 Honour is due.
@The Wild West Pyro, that thing you wrote deserves its own entry under both “Heartwarming” and “Awesome.”

Just as my freedom ends where yours begins my tolerance of you ends where your intolerance toward me begins. As told by an old friend
TheWildWestPyro from Seattle, WA Since: Sep, 2012 Relationship Status: Healthy, deeply-felt respect for this here Shotgun
#248019: Jul 1st 2018 at 5:27:17 AM

@Tobias Drake: Thanks for the warning and reminder - I've changed that.

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#248020: Jul 1st 2018 at 5:30:07 AM

You're welcome. I like your overall point; it was just that bit that bugged me.

It is very important to both

  1. Keep in mind the very real struggles that we are presently facing and will be facing for the foreseeable future, and try to figure out both how to head them off before they hit us and how to bear through once they do.
  2. Keep resisting anyway.

I know I tend to be one of the more pessimistic voices as my vision of the future has a lot of doom and gloom to it, but that's because I try to run risk analysis on every piece of news that hits. "How is this going to screw us and how can we best prepare for it not to?"

Edited by TobiasDrake on Jul 1st 2018 at 6:32:27 AM

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
TheWildWestPyro from Seattle, WA Since: Sep, 2012 Relationship Status: Healthy, deeply-felt respect for this here Shotgun
#248021: Jul 1st 2018 at 5:49:29 AM

[up]

Thanks. I tend to be more optimistic about things, because hope is what drives me through life. However, I appreciate the extremely grounded view you have.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#248022: Jul 1st 2018 at 5:53:49 AM

Finalized list of Ottawa's counter-tariffs set to go into effect.

https://www.fin.gc.ca/access/tt-it/cacsap-cmpcaa-1-eng.asp

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#248023: Jul 1st 2018 at 6:02:01 AM

The situation with America and fascism is a bit better than people think as, ironically, the Republican Party has very little luck without Trump's base. The Republican voters are a cult of personality for Der Cheeto and not remotely interested in the Republcians themselves.

Which explains in part why they fall on their sword to protect him. When Trump ends, it will be the end of his reign and that will not last much longer either way.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
RainingMetal (Handed A Sword) Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#248024: Jul 1st 2018 at 7:09:47 AM

I remember when political ads would get on Obama's case for not having fought in the Vietnam War, even though he was literally a child when it happened.
Later on they'll need to find some other war to look for in every political candidate's resume.

ASAB: All Sponsors Are Bad.
JBC31187 Since: Jan, 2015
#248025: Jul 1st 2018 at 7:17:12 AM

[up][up]That's what's frustrating. America has minority rule, and it's a thin margin for the party of white supremacy to maintain that rule, and yet there's so much bullshit providing a smokescreen for one of the dumbest and meanest people in the country, and his party. I didn't think a Clinton presidency would fix everything, or much of anything, but I thought it would buy us time.

Edited by JBC31187 on Jul 1st 2018 at 7:17:01 AM


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