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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#242426: May 15th 2018 at 1:49:12 PM

[up][up] they've threatened to postpone the summit, I think. We don't know either way yet.

[up] How long can they actually keep up there nuclear program anyway, I wonder

edited 15th May '18 1:52:24 PM by megaeliz

kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#242427: May 15th 2018 at 1:54:13 PM

[up]Just read the article again. No mention of threatening to postpone the summit.

Imca (Veteran)
#242428: May 15th 2018 at 1:55:24 PM

[up][up][up] Exept no?

Both the SDF and the CIA reported at the start of the year the program had been terminated, and the Chinese reported last year that it had the capibility for one more test, and that was it.

I have no reason to doubt any of them, especialy the Chinese who as NK's allies have every reason to lie and say they can still test nukes.

That is why they were even negotiating with "dismantling it" as an option in the first place, they lost nothing by doing so, they were giving up something which had already ceased to function.

edited 15th May '18 1:56:17 PM by Imca

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#242429: May 15th 2018 at 1:56:38 PM

Trump getting the Nobel prize is no different than the guy who invented the lobotomy or Kissenger.

So, really, I'd gladly let him dishonor an award if it meant saving Korea and the world.

As well as the people of North Korea.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#242430: May 15th 2018 at 1:57:04 PM

[up]x3 Here's from my link:

"The United States will also have to undertake careful deliberations about the fate of the planned North Korea-U.S. summit in light of this provocative military ruckus jointly conducted with the South Korean authorities," [(North) Korean Central News Agency] reported.

So there is the threat they will cancel/postpone the Summit meeting with the USA.

(Hurray, Page Topper.)

edited 15th May '18 1:57:25 PM by DingoWalley1

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#242431: May 15th 2018 at 1:57:20 PM

Megaeliz: Hard to say. The question is really how much they can expand it, it's estimated they won't be able to bring their arsenal up above about a hundred weapons.

The research and development is the most difficult part, with that done they can sustain their program very cheaply.

Like I said though, it's almost academic. Their regime needs outside support to survive, nukes or no, and they're not getting enough.

Imca: they suspended testing, not the whole program. The "one more test" reports from China were based on the state of their testing site, not the amount of weapons.

edited 15th May '18 1:59:32 PM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#242433: May 15th 2018 at 2:01:37 PM

Also, after screwing over Tehran, Kim and co have (entirely legit) reasons not to trust Trump.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#242434: May 15th 2018 at 2:01:43 PM

"Trump getting the Nobel prize is no different than the guy who invented the lobotomy or Kissenger.

So, really, I'd gladly let him dishonor an award if it meant saving Korea and the world.

As well as the people of North Korea. "

The world will be fine if, or despite Trump being denied a propaganda victory.

edited 15th May '18 2:02:02 PM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
Asgore Adopts Noelle
#242435: May 15th 2018 at 2:08:11 PM

The sad thing about this is Trump is just going to go back to getting us into a near Nuclear War with North Korea again, if not an outright war. Just like last year...

Imca (Veteran)
#242436: May 15th 2018 at 2:10:33 PM

.... The United States is safe from nuclear war with Korea, the bigest threat is the thousands of rockets pointed at South Korea.

The world is not in danger, South Korea is.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#242437: May 15th 2018 at 2:13:14 PM

Now, blowing up parts of East Asia will have massive economic consequences for the rest of the world, and instability typically spreads. We don't need more refugee waves if it can be avoided, for one.

But the chances of a global, or even beyond regional, war (let alone a nuclear exchange) are limited to say the least.

edited 15th May '18 3:50:47 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Wariolander Since: Nov, 2017
#242438: May 15th 2018 at 2:14:12 PM

[up][up][up] Assuming we aren't already in one with Iran.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#242439: May 15th 2018 at 2:20:49 PM

Don't forget that there are a lot of other areas in the region that could become targets. Japan and Guam are the two big ones.

A war with North Korea isn't really a realistic proposition at this point in time though. Even recently when things were at their most tense war was a long way off.

They should have sent a poet.
Imca (Veteran)
#242440: May 15th 2018 at 2:25:09 PM

They have only about 100 missiles that can reach either the mainland or gaum, AMD should be able to splash most of them.

It is a far cry from the 8,000 launchers pointed at the south.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#242441: May 15th 2018 at 2:31:23 PM

[up] You can see missile ranges here: [1]

They can easily threaten regional states, the missiles they don't have many of are the intercontinental ones. Guam is probably safer than Japan, but it's definitely inside the range of a potential missile strike.

Like I said though, a war is very unlikely.

edited 15th May '18 2:32:29 PM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
Imca (Veteran)
#242442: May 15th 2018 at 2:32:14 PM

Those missiles though only number a dozen or so for each, they aren't like the USSR or the US who have the Balistic missiles to spam.

Also the chart is inaccurate, range 9 is where they ended up capping off at, because those are the ranges without a payload.

This is what they look like with one

edited 15th May '18 2:36:19 PM by Imca

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#242443: May 15th 2018 at 2:46:19 PM

[up] 10 and 11 are recent developments. The Hwasong-15 was tested just this year. The chart you linked is older, you'll notice it lists the "most recent test" as one from early 2017. Those are also the most conservative estimates possible, and don't account for optimized trajectories.

Also, the "less than 100" and "less than 50" estimates thrown around are for operational TE Ls. The inventory of missiles is likely far higher, Scud variants aren't particularly hard to manufacture. Those TEL estimates are also for the advanced missiles, the older ones are plentiful enough that exact counts aren't publicly available.

North Korea isn't a global threat, but they're definitely a regional threat. Japan is particularly vulnerable. You don't gain anything from discounting them, the threat needs to be acknowledged. Everyone saying there's no problem is why Japan has been dragging its feet on Aegis Ashore, which is going to be a critical capability for it.

They should have sent a poet.
Imca (Veteran)
#242444: May 15th 2018 at 2:50:08 PM

We have the Atago and Kongo class ships though, which are much more reliable intercept methods then Ageis Ashore, not going to disagree that draging the feet on that one is BAD it should be installed already, but I do also think your overselling how easy it is to strike across the sea.

They can do it, but not at the required volumes to overwhelm AMD's in any significant way.

Now even one missile hitting a population center is a VERY bad thing, but it is not an existential threat like it is for the south.

FluffyMcChicken My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare from where the floating lights gleam Since: Jun, 2014 Relationship Status: In another castle
My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare
#242445: May 15th 2018 at 2:54:52 PM

Newsweek: ICE Wants to Be Like IRS: Audit and Arrest Business Owners who Employ Undocumented Immigrants

Immigration officials are cracking down on businesses that employ foreigners, according to new data released by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

ICE opened audits on 2,282 employers to make sure their employees were legally allowed to work in the U.S. between October and May of 2018, according to data released Monday. The numbers are up significantly from the 1,360 audits opened during the last fiscal year, between October 2016 and September 2017.

Workplace arrests also increased significantly, according to the data. Between October and May, ICE made 594 criminal and 610 administrative worksite-related arrests, up from the 139 criminal arrests and 172 administrative arrests made the previous year.

The new numbers were released just months after ICE publicly announced that it would begin heavy enforcement of a 1986 law that requires “employers to verify the identity and employment eligibility of their employees and created criminal and civil sanctions for employment related violations,” according to ICE.

“Our worksite enforcement strategy continues to focus on the criminal prosecution of employers who knowingly break the law, and the use of I-9 audits and civil fines to encourage compliance with the law,” said acting executive associate director for ICE Homeland Security Investigations, Derek N. Benner, comparing the audits to the work the IRS does. “Worksite enforcement protects jobs for U.S. citizens and others who are lawfully employed, eliminates unfair competitive advantages for companies that hire an illegal workforce, and strengthen public safety and national security.”

Benner has plans for another round of workplace audits this summer, pushing the total number to more than 5,000, according to the Associated Press.

Ultimately, Benner said he’d like to audit up to 15,000 workplaces for illegal or improperly documented immigrants each year and create a Employer Compliance Inspection Center with at least 250 dedicated auditors.

Experts worry that these raids could create a culture of fear that stop immigrants from finding legitimate jobs and hurt surrounding communities. “I’m most concerned about the impact on workers and people who are looking for jobs and looking for a way to feed their families,” Kristen Clarke, president and executive director of the National Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, told City Lab.

“What ends up happening with these raids or with punitive practices is that it really does scare the entire community and makes them go underground,” said Mai Nguyen, an associate professor of Housing and Community Development at the University of Northern Carolina. "Businesses lose customers, and that affects their bottom line."

This is going to be hilarious considering how its been pointed out numerous times that conservative business owners actually benefit the most from illegal immigrants due to the limited liability that they offer, which is exactly why it is in their interests to keep the illegals that they employ illegal.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#242446: May 15th 2018 at 2:59:22 PM

[up][up]Oh yeah, it's definitely not an existential threat for anyone other than South Korea, but Japan is close enough that they could be hit fairly significantly. They're inside the range of KN-15s, of which there are known to be hundreds of launchers and thousands of missiles.

Aegis Ashore is going to be pretty much identical to what you've got on your Atagos and Kongos, it's the same radar and same missiles. It just has the advantage of deeper magazines and a dedicated role. They should have installed them as soon as they had the option, they would have been a great source of intel on the missile tests.

They should have sent a poet.
sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#242447: May 15th 2018 at 3:15:53 PM

I voted in the Idaho primaries today. My first time voting as a declared Democrat. I did a sample ballot beforehand and referenced it as I went. A few things were some spots that were blank save for a write in option. I assume those are for positions Republicans were running unopposed in. Since I didn't know if any write in possibilities, I left those blank after confirming that wouldn't be an issue for my ballot.

There was also a section for judges and each and every one of them must have been running for reelection unopposed because all of them, legitimately all of them, were "who should succeed judge X" and the only choice was judge X.

edited 15th May '18 3:17:29 PM by sgamer82

TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#242448: May 15th 2018 at 4:16:29 PM

Let's use a 1-5 scale, or something along those lines, with 5 being people that already agree with you, and 1 people being that completely disagree with you.

The extremes at either end aren't worth worrying about, since the 5s are already supporting your cause, and the 1s will never support it. You go for people in the middle.

Exactly. And there is nothing to gain from looking at the 2s and 3s and going, "You guys are useless dumbf*ck idiots who deserve what you get. AHAHAHA the Democrats laugh at your suffering! My party sincerely hopes you dipshits rot in Hell!"

Rubbing it in their faces only reinforces their idea that the Left doesn't care about their problems, and risks shifting 3s into 2s or 2s into 1s.

A basic fact of diplomacy: you gain nothing by being an asshole to the people you are trying to persuade. We literally make fun of Trump for this all the time; let's not fall into the same pitfall. Remember: when courting voters, how you sell your message is every bit as important as how good the message is. Arguably more important.

EDIT: Come to think of it, there's even a risk of shifting 4s into 3s. Embracing schadenfreude at people who are legitimately suffering as a result of making the wrong political choice can also help the bothsider rhetoric that "Both sides are just as bad as the other" hit home for people who had previously been invested in your side. Nothing says, "Maybe my side really are just as big of assholes as the other guys," quite like sore loser behavior.

edited 15th May '18 4:28:43 PM by TobiasDrake

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#242449: May 15th 2018 at 4:33:16 PM

The courts have refused to dismiss Manafort's case. Mueller is within his jurisdiction to bring charges.

DeMarquis (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#242450: May 15th 2018 at 4:34:35 PM

"Do you hear that sound, Mr. Trump? That's the clock. Tick, tock..."

I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.

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