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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#241601: May 8th 2018 at 7:43:17 PM

As if Iraq wasn't enough of a shitstorm even with our allies. And a conflict with Iran would be on a much larger scale.

Disgusted, but not surprised
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#241602: May 8th 2018 at 7:43:49 PM

It'd probably be more like Iraq, where we roll up their conventional military structures but then get stuck fighting irregulars for the next few decades.

They should have sent a poet.
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#241603: May 8th 2018 at 7:50:04 PM

For an official war, I don't think there exists the desire in Congress to actually do that. We don't have anything to gain, and Iran hasn't done anything to us. And even as presidential powers to command military action go, I don't know how he would justify it. Iran hasn't attacked any of our assets at all.

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#241604: May 8th 2018 at 7:51:18 PM

It won't be like Iraq at all. Iran is a much bigger country, it actually has a functioning army which is perfectly capable to defend the country, and the US would have to go in without the help of any allies, which means, among other things, no access to strategic important military bases. Last time they had the coalition of the willing in their back and everyone else allowed the US free passage. This won't happen this time around.

fruitpork Since: Oct, 2010
#241605: May 8th 2018 at 7:53:53 PM

So? Even if there’s no reason, that won’t stop him from going to war.

DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#241606: May 8th 2018 at 7:54:06 PM

[up][up] Yeah, if Trump expects Iran to be Iraq 2: Orange Boogaloo, he'll be in for a rude awakening.

edited 8th May '18 7:54:12 PM by DrunkenNordmann

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#241607: May 8th 2018 at 7:58:58 PM

[up][up]He has to think up some reason to try and convince the public. I'm asking what that would be.

And again, presidential powers to order military action only go so far. I don't think there's currently anything that lets him just roll up on Iran at the moment. And unless Iran decides to do something like impede the traffic that carries the oil US companies are bringing out of there, I can't think of anything else Trump could use as justification. Seriously, what could he use? Let's just say we're going to war because he wants to do it, he's required to have a reason at this point.

raziel365 Anka Aquila from South of the Far West (Veteran) Relationship Status: I've been dreaming of True Love's Kiss
Anka Aquila
#241608: May 8th 2018 at 8:04:20 PM

A false flag revolving around Iran's nuclear arsenal AKA the Sadaam excuse 2.0?

Instead of focusing on relatives that divide us, we should find the absolutes that tie us.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#241609: May 8th 2018 at 8:05:45 PM

This probably isn't the thread to debate military strategy, but that war would not go in Iran's favor whatsoever. Their military is large but very dated, and even with just the forces in the region (the "strategic envelope") we compare favorably in a conventional fight. We have ground access through a permissive Afghanistan, and a ring of airbases along the Persian Gulf. They don't really have any meaningful way to resist our Air Force, and surging a second CSG to the area would close them out as far as naval warfare, given that their navy is built primarily around brown-water operations. It wouldn't take 21 days, but it also wouldn't take months.

The real problem is that their population is huge, at around 80 million, and the terrain in Iran is significantly more rugged than anywhere else in the ME. That makes for a potent and long-lasing insurgency. They also have a much more robust governmental structure, though not to a degree where it couldn't be compromised eventually.

It would be messy, but we could probably wrap up the conventional portion of the conflict in 3 or 4 months. The insurgency afterwards would be wrapped up never, and would continue to bleed money until the sun died out.

As pointed out, we can't just go to war because. The justification would almost certainly be something to do with their nuclear program or Israel, but we'd need some more concrete goings on for that.

edited 8th May '18 8:07:11 PM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
fruitpork Since: Oct, 2010
#241610: May 8th 2018 at 8:11:13 PM

My guess is some bullshit about intervening to put in a more favorable government.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#241611: May 8th 2018 at 8:11:47 PM

We could fight Iran and maybe destroy it.

But there's no military advantage to so and it would grossly destabilize the region further.

It would be monumentally stupid and have not even the thin justification of Iraq.

edited 8th May '18 8:16:40 PM by CharlesPhipps

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
TheWildWestPyro from Seattle, WA Since: Sep, 2012 Relationship Status: Healthy, deeply-felt respect for this here Shotgun
#241612: May 8th 2018 at 8:36:40 PM

Plus, seeing how deep the hole America's foreign position has dug itself into now, the last thing we need to a very skeptical and irritated international community is another war in the Middle East.

TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#241613: May 8th 2018 at 8:44:05 PM

In North Carolina primary news, Robert Pittenger lost his primary to Mark Harris by a few percentage points on the Republican side. Harris will be running against Don McCready in the general, who won his by a wide margin.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#241614: May 8th 2018 at 8:46:00 PM

On a scale of Moore to McCain, how does Harris rank?

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#241615: May 8th 2018 at 8:46:04 PM

Intervening in what, exactly? Your argument seems to be that we'll do it just because Trump, but Iran hasn't done anything wrong lately. And somehow I doubt Israel is interested in going to war right now either.

Hylarn (Don’t ask)
#241616: May 8th 2018 at 8:50:01 PM

Something something weapons of mass destruction

TheRoguePenguin Since: Jul, 2009
#241617: May 8th 2018 at 8:50:15 PM

[up][up][up]I'll just copy a quote from Politico which spells it out nicely:

In 2018, Harris attacked Pittenger as part of the "Washington swamp." The challenger blasted Pittenger's vote for the omnibus spending bill in March, “which we hung around his neck because he voted to fund sanctuary cities and it gave no money for the president’s wall,” said Andy Yates, a spokesman for the Harris campaign.
So Trumpster.

edited 8th May '18 8:50:24 PM by TheRoguePenguin

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#241618: May 8th 2018 at 8:52:59 PM

Great, another Trumpster fire...

Disgusted, but not surprised
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#241619: May 8th 2018 at 9:50:35 PM

He also used to be an extremely powerful baptist minister and the leader of a large baptist group, and was instrumental in getting North Carolina's amedment to ban same-sex marriage. Which probably means he is also involved with NC's treatment of trans people in more recent years.

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Wariolander Since: Nov, 2017
#241620: May 8th 2018 at 10:16:11 PM

Should I be panicking because of this: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/climate-change-earth-too-hot-for-humans.html ? Even if it mostly fearmongering, I hate hot weather.

edited 8th May '18 10:16:25 PM by Wariolander

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#241621: May 8th 2018 at 10:27:52 PM

Wario, you panic over everything and come here seeking psychiatric help we can't give you.

In any case, one single article is never a reason to panic. And panicking won't help with this particular problem anyway, since it requires deep and careful thought and implementation of plans to reduce pollution and the like. Which, while not nearly as fast as I think anyone here would like, is happening. Because that's where the money is, and it's where most of the major world governments are. And it's hopefully where we'll be as a country again in two years.

Also, "hate hot weather" is a petty complaint, and I say this as someone from Texas who gets it yearly regardless of other factors. It also doesn't even begin to cover what climate change is.

edited 8th May '18 10:29:21 PM by AceofSpades

M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#241622: May 8th 2018 at 10:34:47 PM

Seconded as someone who works in Taiwan which gets hot and humid weather. And all of the air pollution that blows our way from the mainland.

edited 8th May '18 10:35:11 PM by M84

Disgusted, but not surprised
Wariolander Since: Nov, 2017
#241623: May 8th 2018 at 10:51:53 PM

[up][up] The hot weather bit at the end was meant to be snarky.

Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#241624: May 9th 2018 at 2:13:10 AM

@Swanpride: I dunno. The most important military bases for such an undertaking would be in Saudi Arabia, who probably would be thrilled to see America attacking Iran and fucking up every step of the way.


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