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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#240751: May 2nd 2018 at 11:07:33 AM

Agreed, supporting a state hostile to Russia's interests is always a good thing. Especially if it can help bleed them white.

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Raptorslash Since: Oct, 2010
#240752: May 2nd 2018 at 11:12:36 AM

It's incredibly ironic for Trumpites to make fun of liberals for "getting triggered" and mocking "safe spaces" and "snowflakes".

They can't tolerate any criticism at all - being called on their bigotry offends them and they only care for free speech so far as they use it as a fig leaf for their bullshit. Trump exemplifies that. He couldn't even attend a dinner where he knew he'd be made fun of, and couldn't let Obama making fun of him go. He's still angry years later at someone saying he has small hands.

Mio Since: Jan, 2001
#240753: May 2nd 2018 at 11:13:06 AM

@ironballs16: I don’t see any mention of debt interest in the article or the CBO report being 96% of GDP in 2028 (though it does mention rising interest rates making debt more expensive). If that was the case the country would actually be bankrupt.

As it is debt being 96% of GDP is not necessarily an indicator of anything bad happening. We will have to wait and see where interest rates and inflation are before we get to saying anything bad about the debt.

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#240754: May 2nd 2018 at 11:14:47 AM

[up][up][up] It also sends a positive message to NATO states like Lithuania that we'll back them up in the case of Russian aggression. Given the recent disruptions to NATO's unity anything helps, and offering lethal aid could inspire those countries to increase their military contributions to our war efforts elsewhere.

edited 2nd May '18 11:15:07 AM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#240755: May 2nd 2018 at 11:15:21 AM

[up] Speaking of that:

Even as fear of Russia is rising, its military spending is actually decreasing [1]

In terms of its military presence, Russia has rivaled the United States in recent years, launching major operations in Ukraine and Syria and having rising ambitions in the Arctic.

But its spending power may not match its global ambitions for much longer, numbers by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed Wednesday. While global military spending grew last year, Russia’s fell from $69.2 billion in 2016 to $66.3 billion.

It was the first time Russian military expenditure fell since 1998 — the year the country defaulted on its debts.

Throughout the era of President Vladimir Putin, military spending increased continuously, but it could now stay flat or even decrease further over the next few years. The Kremlin’s military spending made up 4.3 percent of its gross domestic product last year, and there are plans to cut it below 3 percent within five years, which could either be achieved through (a rather unlikely) economic growth or radical cuts.

The Kremlin’s plans to cut back on its military comes as military expenditure is on the rise across the world, topping $1.74 trillion in 2017. While U.S. spending still outmatched every other global power, its expenditure remained constant last year. China’s rose once again.

“This should come as a relief for Europe and for NATO,” said Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher with SIPRI. “But of course, budget and intentions are distinct. Russia is still strong enough to make a mess out of things.”

Make no mistake: Russia’s military is still among the world’s most well-funded and its budget ranks fourth worldwide. But military budgets can most easily be slashed by cutting down on foreign operations and procurement, which could result in a declining Russian footprint in places like Syria. The Kremlin’s willingness to engage in conflicts abroad has been the key reason for Western concerns over its military in recent years.

“At the global level, the weight of military spending is clearly shifting away from the Euro-Atlantic region,” said Nan Tian, a researcher with SIPRI, referring to major spending increases in Asia.

So, is that good news for a Europe afraid of Russian military incursions? It very well could be.

Putin continues to be hugely popular in Russia — he won the last presidential election in March with 76.7 percent of the vote — even though the country’s economy has been stagnating since 2014. But while Putin’s favorability ratings haven’t suffered as a result, trust in the structures that keep him in power have.

At least some of Russia’s economic woes can be blamed on the nation’s isolation following the annexation of Crimea, resulting in sanctions. Falling oil and gas prices added to the bleak economic outlook.

Russia’s gross domestic product per capita has declined in recent years and about 20 million citizens lived in poverty in 2016, according to the government’s own statistics.

edited 2nd May '18 11:17:13 AM by megaeliz

Raptorslash Since: Oct, 2010
#240756: May 2nd 2018 at 11:23:13 AM

Now I'm kind of curious about how exactly Putin stays so popular, and how much of it is legitimate popularity versus fear and lack of a viable alternative. My understanding is that he cheats even when he doesn't have to and is shamelessly corrupt, and the elections aren't fair.

American presidents' popularity fluctuates, and they never stay very popular for too long. It's very dependent on public perception. Trump, for example, isn't really popular outside of his base, but they're fanatical.

edited 2nd May '18 11:24:13 AM by Raptorslash

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#240757: May 2nd 2018 at 11:26:59 AM

From what I've understood, Putin's popularity is in part due to the fact he's very good at playing to the "Make Russia Great Again" crowd. The Yeltsin years were horrible and Putin is given (incorrectly) credit for pulling them out of it. He's also very good at playing to both the Soviet nostalgia while also working with the Religious Right of the country.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#240758: May 2nd 2018 at 11:30:41 AM

[up][up][up] Sanctions have hit them hard so it's no surprise. They're not able to pour money into cutting edge projects the same way we can so they're refocusing their efforts on smaller stuff.

[up][up] Historically strongmen have been pretty popular in Russia. It helps that Putin essentially has total control over the media as well.

edited 2nd May '18 11:31:30 AM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#240759: May 2nd 2018 at 11:37:32 AM

[up] That's where their use of asymmetric Cyber and disinformation campaigns comes in, right? It's a lower cost, and often deniable way of causing chaos and keeping themselves relevant on a World Stage.

and yeah, every major news source in Russia is basically Russian Fox News.

edited 2nd May '18 11:52:18 AM by megaeliz

Raptorslash Since: Oct, 2010
#240760: May 2nd 2018 at 11:39:26 AM

I noticed that their cyberefforts to help Le Pen in France were ultimately less successful than they were here with helping Trump and with helping Brexit in the UK.

Wonder what France does right that we don't.

CharlesPhipps Since: Jan, 2001
#240761: May 2nd 2018 at 11:39:57 AM

Putin has looted billions from the country but you could argue, also, he does know what he's doing unlike some dictators.

Author of The Rules of Supervillainy, Cthulhu Armageddon, and United States of Monsters.
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#240762: May 2nd 2018 at 11:42:26 AM

Putin is trained by the KGB in disinformation, propaganda, coercion, and all the other tricks of disrupting and controlling the apparatus of state. He's really good at what he does. At the risk of sounding like I'm praising him, he is way, way smarter than Trump.

edited 2nd May '18 11:45:49 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#240763: May 2nd 2018 at 11:43:15 AM

[up][up][up][up] Check out RT. It's not Russian Fox, it's Russian Breitbart. Anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and weird racism are standard there.

And yeah, that's pretty much the idea. It's something they can do cheaply. Probably more of a military thread discussion but they've also refocused their efforts on things like mobile electronic warfare units and long rage air and missile defense specifically to counter the US at a more affordable price. They're one of the pioneers of the A2/AD strategy, which has been a thorn in US military planner's sides for decades.

edited 2nd May '18 11:44:37 AM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#240764: May 2nd 2018 at 11:46:21 AM

[up]X4 The French media and political establishment didn’t play along, both the US and UK media and parts of the political establishment were more than happy to work towards the same goal as Putin, the French press and political establishment weren’t.

edited 2nd May '18 11:47:42 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#240765: May 2nd 2018 at 11:56:04 AM

[up][up][up] Something to remember, is the first people to feel the effects of disinfomation, agitation, coercion, etc, is the Russian people themselves.

The New York Times had a piece from a while back talking out the Internet Research agency, and mentioned how they promote pro-Putin content at home.

I guess the big question is, what can we do to counter it?

edited 2nd May '18 12:05:48 PM by megaeliz

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#240766: May 2nd 2018 at 12:00:03 PM

A lot of Russians hate Putin. The trouble is that the state is very effective at keeping them from having any significant influence, largely through its total control of the media.

As for how we combat it... I don't know. There's nothing magic about democratic institutions and the free press that makes them automatically succeed over dictatorships — the problem with the latter is that their institutions tend to be focused around charismatic figureheads and collapse when those die or leave power. We probably aren't going to dislodge Putin unless he makes a catastrophic error.

Ultimately, we counter Russia in two ways. One: limit its international influence. Isolate it politically and economically, contain its propaganda wars, and slap down its tendrils of expansionism. Two: remember that, economically. Russia is very much a Third World state. It cannot compete on fair and even terms with the US and EU. Successfully isolate it and it'll just sort of wither away.

edited 2nd May '18 12:02:54 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#240767: May 2nd 2018 at 12:09:27 PM

Yeah, when you control the media it's a lot easier to get good publicity. Or at least to make it look like you do.

Also, while even dictators need some supporters, they can in fact run on very low approval ratings.

Leviticus 19:34
Raptorslash Since: Oct, 2010
#240768: May 2nd 2018 at 12:18:33 PM

This happened a while ago, but apparently Matt Furie stopped the distribution of an alt-right children's book. The profits from the book are going to a Muslim civil rights charity.

edited 2nd May '18 12:18:44 PM by Raptorslash

megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#240769: May 2nd 2018 at 12:24:42 PM

[up][up][up] Something that could be done here, is starting an aggressive anti-propaganda media literacy campaign. I'm not sure what that would look like, exactly, but I do know that other countries have instituted something similar to some success.

Also, "hacking back" is something that shouldn't be discounted.

edited 2nd May '18 12:27:22 PM by megaeliz

PhysicalStamina i'm tired, my friend (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: Coming soon to theaters
i'm tired, my friend
#240770: May 2nd 2018 at 12:28:22 PM

[up][up]yeah, that's really old news.

i'm tired, my friend
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#240771: May 2nd 2018 at 12:32:35 PM

@Mio

Fair point - it's the debt itself being 95% of GDP in 2028, not the interest alone.

As a result, the CBO estimated the cumulative deficit over the next decade will be $1.6 trillion larger than previously projected. By 2028, the national debt would total 96 percent of GDP.

Still a noticeable lack of response from the Deficit Hawks that perked up when Obama was President, and some business-minded outlets are saying that the Deficits will pay for themselves, citing one particular chart in the CBO report as evidence of this - but that's still $500 billion in lost revenue for the government, which does nothing to help reduce the debt or deficit.

That faster growth will also reduce federal entitlement spending keyed to the economy — unemployment insurance, food stamps, welfare and the like — by $150 billion, the CBO says.

If you subtract that from the cost of the tax cuts, the net cost drops to $440 billion.

This is what we and other backers of the tax cuts had insisted all along. Not that tax cuts would entirely pay for themselves. But that the economic growth they generate would offset much of the costs.

Looks like we were right.

edited 2nd May '18 12:33:19 PM by ironballs16

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
Raptorslash Since: Oct, 2010
#240772: May 2nd 2018 at 12:33:12 PM

The problem is that a lot of Republicans are already inclined to see anything anti-Trump - especially from outside media - as "fake news" and are likely to ignore it or treat it like propaganda from the Democrats.

megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#240773: May 2nd 2018 at 12:35:27 PM

[up] I believe that's known as the Hostile Media effect. Basically it's when objective facts seem like partisan attacks.

edited 2nd May '18 12:36:19 PM by megaeliz

Wariolander Since: Nov, 2017
#240774: May 2nd 2018 at 12:47:14 PM

[up]x14 The French have always been more left-leaning than the US or UK and usually have better standards than Americans or Brits. Also, Russians don't know French as well as they do English.

edited 2nd May '18 2:05:27 PM by Wariolander

RainehDaze Nero Fangirl (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
Nero Fangirl
#240775: May 2nd 2018 at 12:48:10 PM

Anything to back up the intelligence claim?


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