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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
Both parties are facing major problems going forwards
; the democrats in terms of the electoral map, and the GOP in terms of demographics. While Trump being in control of the party was certainly a gift at the nadir of his popularity when it looked like he was headed towards a death spiral, at this point in time he's holding stable at 40% approval, which isn't terrible for modern presidents, just mediocre.
edited 20th Apr '18 5:19:57 PM by CaptainCapsase
The longer Trump remains in power, the more the country normalizes his behavior. That was always the risk of him taking the Presidency in the first place. Give him four years in office and the country won't see him as any different from any other Republican. Give him eight years, and we'll have forgotten what "behaving Presidential" even means.
Meanwhile, there is a not-insignificant risk that his success may result in a Green Tea movement among the Democrats, further radicalizing our political system. If we take anything away from the Bernie Sanders movement, it should be that we are not immune to a populist uprising any more than the Republicans were.
edited 20th Apr '18 5:25:20 PM by TobiasDrake
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.![]()
Both parties facing problems does not mean that their positions are equivalent, the gap in enthusiasm means that a Blue Wave is probable
and frankly I see no reason that it will not last until 2020 if not further.
The Democrats problems can be addressed while the same cannot be said for Republicans, it's more than possible for the Democratic Party to court working class whites and college educated whites while the same cannot really be said for Republicans and minorities.
I think it's quite likely that Trump is going to be a very bad thing for the Republicans.
Obviously we shouldn't be complacent but I think things look good as of now, and they can get better.
While Trump normalizing his behavior is an issue I am extremely skeptical that it's as dramatic as you say, not to mention that people associating Trump with the average Republican is hardly a good thing for them considering that his support is almost entirely from their base.
edited 20th Apr '18 5:25:27 PM by Fourthspartan56
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangThe Blue Wave would certainly function as a means of damage control.
However, my fear today remains the same as it was when people first started talking about a Blue Wave, back in November 2016. As Trump's Presidency becomes more normal and Americans become inoculated against his particular brand of shittiness, there is no guarantee that the passion won't burn itself out.
Recent trends have certainly shown that it's still going strong. That's good.
But if the Blue Wave peters out before November or winds up being more of a Blue Shallow Drizzle, I fear it will embolden the more radical members of our own party. The biggest threat Trump poses to the Democratic Party is the risk of us, in turn, becoming the Party of F*ck Trump to combat the Party of Trump.
edited 20th Apr '18 5:29:29 PM by TobiasDrake
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
These are all fair points.
Thankfully I think that Trump is their own greatest enemy, enthusiasm will remain high for as long as he inevitably does something that offends the Democratic base.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji YangTo a lesser extent, I'm also worried that if the Blue Wave does happen, many leftist voters will promptly declare victory and return to pre-2016 levels of apathy.
"Well, we did it! Hillary or Bernie, whichever one I care about, has been avenged. Politics have been fixed. Back to video games I go!"
People want to have a bad guy that can be soundly defeated and then credits will roll, but politics are an eternal struggle.
edited 20th Apr '18 5:35:54 PM by TobiasDrake
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.So, this ICE raid just happened in Rome, NY
. 7 agents dispatched to take one person into custody (who, according to the farmer he works for, has proper documentation), and they didn't present the farmer with any paperwork authorizing their coming onto his property for it.
"I told them you can't come in here without a warrant," Collins said. "They can't take someone and throw them up against the wall because of the color of their skin."
Collins attempted to take photos and video with his phone. When he did that, he said, one of the ICE officers grabbed his phone and threw it into the road. Then they handcuffed him and threatened to arrest him for hindering a federal investigation, he said.
But then the officers uncuffed him and left with Aguilar in the backseat of a dark Dodge Caravan.
"This was something you see on TV," Collins said. "You don't expect it to be here."
And given how many farmers around here I know employ migrant workers, I've a feeling that Katko might lose his seat unless he gets in front of this particular shitshow.
"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"Can we just declare ICE a rogue organization at this point? I feel like they just do whatever they want.
Then again, maybe "rogue" is the wrong word, considering Trump gives their actions (legal or otherwise) his full approval. Gotta deport as many people as possible, right?
Hell, if it were up to Trump, he would use ICE to deport anybody who says critical words about him.
edited 20th Apr '18 6:14:04 PM by speedyboris
ICE is also one of the newer federal agencies on the block. It was one of the ones formed in response to 9/11.
Really, we just need to get rid of the ERO within ICE. There's no reason to have special police just for deporting people. The rest of the agency is fine, they do normal police work.
They should have sent a poet.Tobias Drake has a valid worry especially if you consider the Republican Party during the Obama Presidency to be the "Party of F*ck Obama" to counter the "Party of Obama" that the Democrats were. The difference in this case is that Trump has a ton of valid scandals and vile opinions to his name giving Democrats a justified reason to say "F*ck Trump" whereas Obama is amazingly scandal-free for a President and the Republicans only hate him for "Being President While Black." That's not even subtext as Republicans voted the guy who popularized the Birther Movement to become president after Obama.
edited 21st Apr '18 12:19:07 AM by GameGuruGG
Wizard Needs Food BadlyMichael Cohen’s Other Woe: Mounting Unpaid Taxes on New York Cabs
The bills show the declining fortunes of some companies linked to Cohen, the longtime personal lawyer to President Donald Trump. Cohen is under a federal criminal investigation into his business and financial dealings that broke into the open this month with FBI raids on his office and residences. All the parties involved are now jostling over how that evidence will be used.
New York state filed tax liens in Manhattan this week against five companies owned by Cohen and members of his family, including Mad Dog Cab Corp., Martha Cab Corp., LAF Hacking Corp. and NY Funky Taxi Corp. The Cohens own medallions for 32 taxis in New York City through 16 companies. Most of those companies are now encumbered by liens: State tax authorities are seeking about $174,000 in all in taxes from Cohen family taxi companies, including the latest claims.
Cohen, the chief executive officer of the five companies, disputed the figure and said the tax obligation isn’t his. "These are the obligations of the operator, not the passive investor," he said in a telephone interview.
In the Cohens’ case, that’s Evgeny “Gene" Freidman, who gained the moniker "Taxi King" for operating more than 800 cabs in the city. Freidman has been charged in New York with failing to collect more than $5 million in 50-cent fare surcharges.
Patrick Egan, a Philadelphia lawyer who represents Freidman, said his client is innocent and will fight the charges in a trial set for June. He declined to comment on whether the Cohen family is liable for the taxes.
Before he started working as a lawyer for Trump, Cohen built his wealth in the taxi business in New York and Chicago. He has said he bought medallions in the 1990s from his father-in-law, Fima Shusterman, an immigrant from Ukraine. In 2003, Cohen said, he owned 200 taxi medallions, according to Pro Publica. Around the same time, Cohen and his in-laws moved into high-end real estate, including apartments in Manhattan’s Trump World Tower, Trump Palace and Trump Park Avenue. Cohen has since invested in New York City apartment buildings.
Cohen is the co-owner of Mad Dog with a woman who has the same name as his mother, according to taxi records. His wife, Laura, is listed as sole owner of the other four companies subjected to the latest liens.
In recent years, the taxi business has come under severe financial pressure as customers are lured to ride-hailing apps such as Uber and Lyft. New York-issued taxi medallions, which are required to pick up anyone hailing a ride, changed hands for as much as $1.3 million each less than a half-decade ago. Their prices have since plunged to about $200,000.
The Cohens’ 32 medallions were last refinanced around market highs in 2014 and the loans are due in 2019, Bloomberg reported last week.
The FBI, in its April 9 raids, took documents, computer hard drives and cellphones from Cohen’s New York office, home, hotel room and safe-deposit box to advance an investigation targeting potential bank fraud, wire fraud and campaign-finance violations.
It’s unclear precisely what prosecutors are looking for, but they’ve seized information about several episodes in Trump’s private life that had the potential to endanger his candidacy and could now imperil his presidency. They include the $130,000 payment Cohen said he made to a porn star who claimed to have had sex with Trump in 2006. Cohen has said he drew on a home-equity loan to make the payment without Trump’s knowledge and that he wasn’t reimbursed.
Agents also sought records on Cohen’s taxi business, CNN reported.
So the state is going after Cohen too.
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Certainly, the Republicans are a cautionary tale on the dangers of excessively focusing on being against someone instead of being for something. Thankfully the Democrats seem to be aware of that risk in that they strongly oppose Trump while still having a intellectual foundation to rest on.
edited 20th Apr '18 7:14:07 PM by Fourthspartan56
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
A good point, and one that I think people too often overlook. Even if Trump himself doesn't directly go down from this the fact that a large number of his allies have or will be brought down is something very bad for him and very good for us.
So Cohen's shady in his business dealings too. No wonder he and Trump made a match. I think Trump makes people fail a purity test before they can join his inner circle: sort of a "You Must Be This Corrupt To Enter" checkpoint combined with If You're So Evil, Eat This Kitten!. The point is to surround himself with people who have just as much to lose as he does if they rat him out.
Republicans have been in the process of shedding any semblance of an intellectual foundation since the seventies. The adoption of the Southern Strategy: co-opting the Dixiecrats who abandoned the Democratic Party over civil rights, started this decline and it's been getting progressively worse as the party's core has gradually been replaced with either True Believers or pure cynics who have to pretend to be True Believers to maintain power.
When you strip off the pretensions of the GOP, it's about two things: plutocracy and racism.
edited 20th Apr '18 7:18:16 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"

Except Reagan forged a coalition that could win elections for the entire party. Trump doesnt seem able to do that.
I'm done trying to sound smart. "Clear" is the new smart.