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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
@"May you live in interesting times": ... no, my bad, I'm confusing it with "May you live forever" in terms of ancient passive-aggressive fuck yous.
@Trump-Russia-missiles: Great. All Putin, or whoever, needs to do is insult his virility at this point.
edited 11th Apr '18 8:01:33 AM by TroperOnAStickV2
Hopefully I'll feel confident to change my avatar off this scumbag soon. Apologies to any scumbags I insulted.Turns out that Senators Graham, Tillis, Booker, and Coons have announced a bipartisan bill to protect Mueller, if nothing else this should force the Republicans to make their position clear.
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang![]()
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this feels like, he's actually notably less frantic today. This is more just complaining. [1]
Dershowitz’s public position has been that Mueller shouldn’t have been hired but shouldn’t be fired... and that Trump could beat any obstruction rap.
That may well explain Trump’s relative calm today.
He also threatened to sue his accusers and bomb No Ko. Now he’s scheduled to have tea with Kim Jong Un. [2]
It’s hard to explain but when you have been around a person with narcissistic personality disorder, you get a visceral sense of their “temperature”.
Trump is less fevered today than yesterday.
[3]
And interestingly, Fox News has been critical of Russia lately, which may explain his tone shift.
edited 11th Apr '18 8:36:45 AM by megaeliz
If Trump does strike the Russians have a couple options, but none of them are good. It all depends on how they’re feeling. Supposedly Russian tactical fighters have been spotted over the med with anti-ship missiles so it’s possible they’ll try to go after naval assets.
If we’re going to strike we need to make it a good one, not a ineffectual light show like last time.
They should have sent a poet.If the Russians actually strike US warships (as opposed to trying to intercept any missiles), things are going to get very nasty very quickly. Them attacking US aircraft, special forces in Syria, or other allied assets, would be bad but not quite as bad as a fucking warship getting nailed.
...Wonder what the DEFCON level is right now?
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.If Russian aircraft actually attack US ships (like, firing on them, not just nuisance intimidation tactics like close flybys) then there will be a shooting war between the US and Russia. Once actual ordinance is launched, then things that could previously be written off as an intimidation tactic must now be considered an actual attack and responded to appropriately.
I don't think Russia wants to escalate things to that extent. It's not impossible, but it's not likely, either. The best case scenario for Russia in that case is that they force the US military presence (which is already modest) out of Syria. The worst is that it sparks international outrage and something like a no-fly zone with international enforcement goes up over Syria. The risk/reward equation doesn't seem to work out in Russia's favor.
Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.Yeah, hitting a ship would absolutely be an act of war and at that point all bets are off.
I think Putin has backed himself into a corner somewhat here with his positions on the Syrian government and rhetoric regarding the US. He definitely feels a need to escalate, if only to prove that Russia is the bigger fish.
They should have sent a poet.What's interesting to me, is that apparently, his harsher stance on Russia coincided with Fox News also starting to criticize Russia as well.
Just out of curiosity, if we had a more competent president and administration, does anyone have any ideas for what we could even do in Syria? Leaving really isn't an acceptable option, but doesn't seem like any of the other options are particularly good either.
edited 11th Apr '18 9:48:29 AM by megaeliz
It's not like autocrats who find their backs up against a wall domestically ever lash out with their country's military... oh, wait.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"![]()
In that vain, this
is interesting note
The Oligarch Designations: Assets in the West are on the Table
The Treasury Department designated seven oligarchs and seventeen Russian government officials in this tranche. The designations of Oleg Deripaska, Suleiman Kerimov, and Viktor Vekselberg were particularly notable, as they all own or control vast holdings in the West. Although, like most Russian oligarchs, the three men originally made their fortunes in extractive industries in Russia, their companies are now closely interwoven with the Western financial system. Deripaska’s EN+ Group is incorporated in Jersey and trades on the London Stock Exchange. Kerimov’s family owns Polyus, one of the largest gold miners in the world, which also trades in London. Vekselberg’s Renova Group has substantial operations in Zurich and owns a large U.S. investment firm. Renova, through an affiliated company, is also the single largest shareholder in the largest bank in Cyprus.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control, which manages financial sanctions for the Treasury Department, issued two licenses granting American businesses and individuals a short window to unload equity or debt holdings related to these sanctioned companies and to wind down business relationships. The licenses signal that Treasury anticipates these seven oligarchs are extensively intertwined with American companies and capital markets. While U.S. businesses may find it complicated and costly to extricate themselves, that very entanglement also means that the subjects of sanctions may stand to lose their shirts. Time will tell.
A willingness to target Russian oligarchs and businesses with significant exposure to the West creates the possibility that the U.S. government will be willing to ratchet up the pressure in ways that were until now unforeseen. The targeting of more powerful oligarchs, of Russian-affiliated banks in the West, and even of Russian state-owned enterprises now seems plausible.
The deterrent effect of this round of targeting may be felt even absent additional actions, as the logic of the expectations game plays out — if other oligarchs think they will be next, they may be forced into a fire sale of assets. If Western businesses perceive that the previously unimaginable is now likely and retreat from Russia, the Russian business climate could deteriorate quickly.
To cite one example, oil major Rosneft, VTB bank, and gas giant Gazprom — three of the largest companies in Russia, all state-owned — have long been subject to restrictions on dealings in their debt and equity under U.S. sanctions, although not to asset freezes or transaction bans. Gazprom head Igor Sechin has also been subject to an asset freeze in his personal capacity, but business with Gazprom itself was not seen by Western firms as off-limits. VTB President Andrey Kostin and Gazprom Chairman Alexey Miller were targeted along with the seven oligarchs. Will Western firms now view the three Russian state giants as higher risk than they did before this action?
Equally important is what Europe does next. After the annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine, the European Union and the United States developed a joint, albeit limited, sanctions response. There are institutional constraints in the European Union, such as the requirement that sanctions be imposed through the unanimous consent of member states, that make it difficult for Europe to match these latest sanctions designations immediately. But the targeting of the oligarchs comes on the heels of the swift multilateral response to the poisoning of Sergei and Yulia Skripal and promises of aggressive action by the United Kingdom to target illicit Russian wealth. A forward-looking, comprehensive, and coordinated strategy to deter Russia — of which sanctions are one important element — may finally be within reach.
edited 11th Apr '18 10:04:46 AM by megaeliz
Ultimately the problem is that Russia is not some tin pot dictatorship with ambitious ideas.
It's a peer foe with a nuclear arsenal and delivery systems rivaling ours and with a military and wartime industrial capacity still capable of doing significant damage to Europe and to us.
We can't just bomb it to pieces and and we can't just destroy it's economy outright for fear of physical retaliation.
The continued existence of the Russian Federation as a global power can't be really affected by outside means.
Like I said, we're back to Cold War era geopolitics.
Oh really when?![]()
I don't see why not. The sanctions we've imposed so far have hurt their economy to a fairly massive degree, they've been in a recession since 2014. I believe they've had negative GDP growth for quite a while as well. We've already hurt them quite dearly. Factor into that equation that their economic troubles have no doubt seriously impacted military readiness and public support for the administration and I'm not sure there's a scenario where they conduct a military first strike over it.
That's aside from the fact that while they would cause unbelievable damage they know as well as we do there's no real hope of them winning a war with us.
They should have sent a poet.

It's moments like this where the sheer horror of knowing that this insecure, petty, impulsive, selfish man holds the lives of our troops in his grubby little hands (and everyone else I guess but the troops are in the more immediate danger) hits me.
edited 11th Apr '18 7:57:57 AM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised