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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#236576: Mar 25th 2018 at 12:45:19 PM

[up][up] Your two central points are that Kim is delusional, and that China will jump into any situation on the peninsula. It's not such a clear-cut situation though, and it's a mischaracterization of both Kim and China's motives.

Kim is certainly a megalomaniac, but based on everything he's done we know the NK government has a realistic assessment of what's going on. They wouldn't be investing in second strike capabilities or a credible deterrent if they thought they could go toe to toe with the US. The whole reason they've invested there is because they know they can't, and they need to keep us away. In fact, I think the characterization of the NK regime as delusional is one of the biggest mistakes you can make when it comes to assessing the situation. They're realistic about their position, and they've done a very good job of maneuvering themselves into a spot where they can easily maintain the status quo.

As for the second point, that's a 50/50. China has no real ideological stance here, so they don't necessarily care if NK is being "bullied", so much as they care if it's folding. As has been pointed out by many analysts and by the Joint Chiefs several times, China is not prepared for a refugee crisis. A sudden population influx combined with the political instability caused by said crisis could cascade across China, causing serious harm. As such, their motivation isn't to defend NK, but rather to maintain stability on their border. China's relationship with NK has also been souring significantly, and they've been pushing hard for renewed Six Party Talks. The upcoming summit is presumed to be at least in part spurred by pressure they're putting on the N Ks. Trade between the two countries is way down, and just last year for the first time ever China backed embargoes on NK at the UN. There's also their own restrictions on coal and oil that have been put into place just recently.

I think the situation would probably look something like this. Trump tweets that we're going to war, and NK starts harassing SK along the border and coast as they like to do in times of crisis. China, wary of the situation, clamps down on trade and begins pressuring the NK regime to back off. The military escalation from the US ends up not materializing due to internal politics, and NK releases a statement saying how strong and awesome they are for facing down the US. The status quo resumes, just a little more tense than before.

[up] Also this.

edited 25th Mar '18 12:46:37 PM by archonspeaks

They should have sent a poet.
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#236577: Mar 25th 2018 at 12:58:27 PM

I've always thought, "support our troops", is code for "support the Millitary Industrial Complex."

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#236578: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:04:31 PM

It is, that and "automatically support our jingoism".

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#236579: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:08:05 PM

[up] Don't forget "look at how patriotic I am".

They should have sent a poet.
TerminusEst from the Land of Winter and Stars Since: Feb, 2010
#236580: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:08:22 PM

They take the "serve" part of serving your country literally. You volunteer, it's all on you.

Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#236581: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:10:42 PM

Reasons that big law firms have told a CNN reporter they refuse to represent Trump.

Reasons why big law firms have told me they won’t rep Trump:
  1. Already repping subjects in investigation
  2. He’s a “difficult” client
  3. Could hurt relationships w corporate clients
  4. Could hurt associate recruiting
  5. Key partner is “busy”
  6. He attacked judge/rule of law

Anyone else think of more possible reasons?

edited 25th Mar '18 1:13:36 PM by megaeliz

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#236582: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:13:05 PM

You'know call me crazy but this sounds like even more evidence of Trump facing consequences for his actions tongue

edited 25th Mar '18 1:13:15 PM by Fourthspartan56

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#236583: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:21:23 PM

7. it is a lost case

edited 25th Mar '18 1:21:41 PM by AngelusNox

Inter arma enim silent leges
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#236584: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:21:39 PM

[up][up][up] Trump doesn't pay the contractors he hires to build his resort-casino-hotels. I think it's safe to assume that he'll weasel out of paying his lawyers' fees, as well. (Whether they win his cases or not.)

He brags about being a multi-billionaire, but he's stingier than Jack Benny's on-the-air persona.

edited 25th Mar '18 1:26:07 PM by pwiegle

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#236585: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:25:25 PM

Also, I recall it being a big thing he doesn't listen to legal advice that's given to him. Which really shouldn't be surprising; Trump not listening to people who know what they're doing (at least, relative to him) when they say things he doesn't like has been a running theme.

Edit: Though, I guess that could be apart of what makes him "difficult".

edited 25th Mar '18 1:26:04 PM by LSBK

megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#236586: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:26:33 PM

I figure all of Trump's lawyers are so out of their depth here.

A bunch of no-name lawyers against an all star team of veteran prosecutors headed by the former head of the FBI? I don't like their chances.

edited 25th Mar '18 1:34:34 PM by megaeliz

Imca (Veteran)
#236587: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:38:12 PM

Don't look now, but these satellite photos show a decrease in activity around the North Korean nuclear missile silos. Could they actually be calling Trump's bluff? Maybe we aren't giving "little rocket man" enough credit.

That was more like you not giving him enough credit, most of us here realize the North Koreans are despite what they appear, rational actors... its just there goals often put them in conflict with the goals of the rest of the world, but the fact that they actualy have them, and are smart enough to make ideal moves makes them predictable.

They are concerned with regime stability, and there missile program isn't quite achieving that any more, few people on the global scale fear them.... We can shoot them down, the Amercians can shoot them down and are out of range any way, the South Koreans have a larger threat in the face of conventional guns.... and yet....

Missiles are nightmarishly expensive, not just in building but in maintaining, and upkeep...... even ignoring the fact that the mountain they they test there nuclear weapons in is on the verge of collapse.... they just can't afford to keep it going for the little payoff it was giving them..... they are a country so poor that they cant move there ships around the peninsula due to fuel costs, nor train pilots with any thing other then cardboard cutouts.... expecting them to keep a program that is nto achieving the payoffs they wanted running at full steam is...... just fear mongering.

There missile program will stay, but remain as it was a bluff, with the money they have being put into programs with more of a tangible payoff.

All those rules I listed are what you need to do every 2 years to own a hunting rifle in Japan and it works.

1st) The storage check happens more often then every 2 years, it is whenever the officer feels like it, though they do change out the officer every two years so they can't grow attached to you.
2) It only works at preventing gun violence, the general rate of murder is overall similar.

Doesn't mean it shouldn't be copied, just its best to get facts right.

Not necessarily. Just like with people trying to kill themselves, anything that slows the shooter down or makes them hesitate for even a second has an outsize impact on their willingness to follow through. I'm not talking about security in the "kill the shooter before they can kill" sense.

You are very very right, even a single officer showing up on the scene is enough to make some of the attackers commit suicide, any thing that slows people down has an impact on there willingness to follow through

Army veteran who served two tours of duty in Afghanistan deported to Mexico.

I have no words for my contempt of this administration, there is more I want to say on this particular one.... but... I just cant put it in words that would be acceptable.....

Now, that largely is the situation. The only reason Kim's even on the map is because China protects him. But I think you're fooling yourself if you expect Kim to take his own global impotence into account and to act on the knowledge that he is a weak, defenseless, powerless man unable to even secure his own country from foreign attack.

Kim actualy IS aware of that Tobias, thats exactly why he has the WMD programs and takes South Korea hostage in the first place, he has seen what happens to dictators that give up or don't have WMDs and that the US no longer needs..... and is TERRIFIED that will happen to him too.

If China believes that North Korea acted in its own defense to make the American bullies back off, it will step up and defend them from American retaliation. The timeline scenario for that basically goes like this:

No, no they won't.... I don't even like China and I can see this is a stupid move for them..... while they protect North Korea diplomaticly NOW, if it came to actual blows, they would do nothing to stop Amercia.... they would if any thing march to Pyongyang themselfs and declare it under there protection.

See the United States is there best customer, and a vital part of there economy, what does North Korea contribute? Nothing.

Words made while politicking are empty gestures, one needs to look at what countries actually provide and deal with each other.

Fourthspartan56 from Georgia, US Since: Oct, 2016 Relationship Status: THIS CONCEPT OF 'WUV' CONFUSES AND INFURIATES US!
#236588: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:41:07 PM

[up][awesome]

"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#236589: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:43:11 PM

Anyone else think of more possible reasons?

Yes. Older articles on the same subject have cited Trump's reputation for not paying his lawyers as a reason why firms refuse to represent him. In 2017, a news article cited the following top reasons for why firms weren't willing to represent him:

Why No Lawyers Will Represent Trump [Washington Monthly, 6th June 2017]

  1. They won't get paid.
  2. Their client wouldn't follow their advice.
  3. They represent clients who have been or might be subpoenaed in money laundering aspects of the case.
  4. It would destroy the image and reputation of their firm.
  5. It would 'kill' efforts to recruit top lawyers to their firm.
  6. They'll be washing their hair that year ("I'm too busy to represent the POTUS.")
  7. He can't be saved.

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
archonspeaks Since: Jun, 2013
#236590: Mar 25th 2018 at 1:45:32 PM

There missile program will stay, but remain as it was a bluff, with the money they have being put into programs with more of a tangible payoff.

I get the sense that with the development of the Hwasong-15 finished they consider their missile program complete, in a way. They don't need to play the arms race first world nations play, they just need to have a credible threat. I would assume they're going to shift their focus from testing to production, which matches with the reduced activity seen around test sites.

They should have sent a poet.
CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#236592: Mar 25th 2018 at 2:41:30 PM

[up]Yikes.

Classic racist grandpa social media consumption.

edited 25th Mar '18 2:42:10 PM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#236593: Mar 25th 2018 at 2:55:42 PM

I think a number of people here are vastly overestimating the rationality of the North Korean regime, the US and USSR only just avoided starting a war with much calmer circumstances than a US president declaring one, and the USSR and cold-war era US we’re much more rational actors than the North Korean regime is.

Now I don’t see the North Korean regime escalating to a nuclear strike instantly, I expect that such a situation would go.

  • Trump tweets that the US is going to use force against North Korea immediately.
  • North Korea responds with shelling of South Korea, dozens, maybe hundreds die.
  • China mobilises forces to get involved in any potential war.
  • The South Korean government is able to get word to the North Korean that no war is coming.
  • North Korean state TV declares that the imperialists have been driven back from their attempt to destroy North Korea.
  • The UN Security Council is called together in an emergency session and officially condemns the US for acting to destabilise the Korean Peninsula.
  • South Korea starts considering expelling US forces, as their presence and the actions of the US president have just costs hundreds of civilian lives.

I don’t think the North Korean will take the chance of a US invasion being real, they will react as if it’s real until told otherwise, because in their minds if they don’t act they’re doomed, while if they do act they can make the US back off (or make it be made to back off by South Korea).

The real risk of escalation is if US or South Korea troops return fire, which I think normally they would, but as the Joint Chiefs and South Korean are awere that Trump might start something out of thin air, it’s possible that the orders have been amended.

@Story Daniels, if she releases a sex tape and this does Trump in I want a medal from you lot, as I’m pretty sure that not long after Trump was elected I predicted that he’d go out not like a president but like a celebrity, with a sex tape about him coming out and destroying his reputation being the most likely possibility.

edited 25th Mar '18 2:57:06 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#236594: Mar 25th 2018 at 2:58:51 PM

Since Trump's team is loosing lawyers, who should he try to get now? I was thinking Judge Jeanine.

[up] it's more about potentially Breaking campaign finance law I think.

edited 25th Mar '18 3:01:17 PM by megaeliz

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#236595: Mar 25th 2018 at 3:00:10 PM

So...how about a betting pool? Who will leave the white house by Friday? I put three smilies on sessions

edited 25th Mar '18 3:00:55 PM by Swanpride

Imca (Veteran)
#236596: Mar 25th 2018 at 3:00:52 PM

[up][up] The problem is they ARE rational Silsaw.

What we see is an act, they play by rational rules, and know exactly what there doing.

They shouldn't be treated any diffrent from how the USSR was, because they aren't dumb, as much as media likes to say they are.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
BlueNinja0 The Mod with the Migraine from Taking a left at Albuquerque Since: Dec, 2010 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
The Mod with the Migraine
#236598: Mar 25th 2018 at 3:03:51 PM

@Story Daniels, if she releases a sex tape and this does Trump in I want a medal from you lot, as I’m pretty sure that not long after Trump was elected I predicted that he’d go out not like a president but like a celebrity, with a sex tape about him coming out and destroying his reputation being the most likely possibility.
Not sure if the best response is Citation Needed or Medals for Everyone. tongue

That’s the epitome of privilege right there, not considering armed nazis a threat to your life. - Silasw
megaeliz Since: Mar, 2017
#236599: Mar 25th 2018 at 3:04:44 PM

[up][up] thank God it's not Sessions, at least. That would mean he's trying to go after Mueller.

edited 25th Mar '18 3:05:30 PM by megaeliz

ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#236600: Mar 25th 2018 at 3:05:02 PM

With the Army vet getting deported, it's worth noting that the event that triggered it was his attempt to sell 2 pounds of cocaine. PTSD or no, that's... kind of bad.

edited 25th Mar '18 3:06:08 PM by ironballs16

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"

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