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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
[[quoteblockI was operating under the assumption that any de-nuking deal would involve a major drawback of the US presence in the South. [[/quoteblock]] Ah, sorry, I thought you meant a more immediate withdrawal for the talks to happen.
South Korea's armed forces are pretty capable on their own. They're not that big but they're well equipped and they've tailored their armed forces specifically to take out massed formations like what the N Ks would throw at them. If a drawdown of US forces did happen I'd imagine they'd be more or less okay.
They should have sent a poet.South Korea has our nukes, or is supposed to — if NK attacks them, we retaliate. God only knows if Trump would keep that promise, though.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Well, in every case North Korea ends up screwed. The only real question is how much damage they inflict before they go down. They know that a war means the end for them, so they won't be the ones to start it. And we know that a war means South Korea gets the shit kicked out of it, so we aren't gonna start it either. Barring some unbelievable diplomatic incident at the summit, war is unlikely. Bolton doesn't really change the equation in a significant way.
Worrying about war on the Korean peninsula is unproductive.
edited 23rd Mar '18 1:36:25 PM by archonspeaks
They should have sent a poet.Bolton wants a preemptive strike on North Korea, and Trump's got the same mindset. If they get into a positive feedback loop, then it might just happen. If it does, and NK retaliates by immolating Seoul, or vaporizing Guam, then we've got a real pickle on our hands.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Something interesting and local:
Risch holds up spending bill, angry over naming of wilderness after former rival Andrus
http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article206506889.html
But Idaho GOP Sen. Jim Risch raised a lot of eyebrows, and plenty of ire, when he decided to risk blowing up the spending bill to wage a political battle.
The battle he chose? Preventing the renaming of 90,769-acres of Central Idaho wilderness the Cecil D. Andrus-White Clouds Wilderness. Andrus died in August.
Idaho GOP Rep. Mike Simpson had added to the legislation a provision to honor Idaho’s renowned Democratic governor. And Risch did not like this at all.
The showdown, which began unfolding late Thursday night, quickly spread across social media and online as reporters covering the Senate vote tried to figure out why a deceased governor from Idaho was stalling things.
A follow-up:
Idaho lawmaker says he met with GOP resistance when he tried to honor Andrus
http://www.idahostatesman.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article206591389.html
In a more subtle move, some members of the Idaho Legislature allegedly took umbrage with a Democratic lawmaker’s attempt to pass a resolution supporting Simpson’s efforts to honor Andrus for his work in protecting Idaho’s natural resources.
The House Resources and Conservation Committee in early February agreed to hold a hearing on the resolution proposed by House Minority Leader Mat Erpelding, a Boise Democrat who was friends with Andrus and considered him a mentor.
The simple resolution (HCR 42) stated: “(W) support the efforts of United States Congressman Mike Simpson of Idaho to redesignate the White Clouds Wilderness in the Sawtooth and Challis National Forests in the State of Idaho as the Cecil D. Andrus-White Clouds Wilderness in honor of former Idaho Governor and Secretary of the Interior Cecil D. Andrus. ... we honor and recognize Cecil D. Andrus for his work in protecting Idaho's natural resources.”
But Erpelding said when he got wind of what some GOP members of the committee were going to do, he pulled it.
“Several members of the committee were going to make a fool of me by voting to kill it and generate press coverage,” Erpelding told the Statesman on Friday. “Rather than risk a partisan snipe on Andrus’s name, I pulled the bill.”
Erpelding would not say which members were going to vote against the bill. The committee comprises 15 Republicans and three Democrats.
Erpelding had stayed quiet about why he pulled the bill until he learned of Risch’s objections to one of the provisions in the massive spending bill renaming a wilderness preserve for Cecil Andrus. Risch threatened to keep the chamber from voting on the bill.
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See, that's the problem. Trump wanted a war with North Korea from the moment he entered office. He just needs all those pesky moderates out of the way to do it. And I'd say he's pretty close to that point right now. If no pre-emptive strike is made on North Korea by, say, July, I'll be genuinely surprised.
Well, at that point the it would be a nuclear retaliation, and North Korea would find themselves gone. They have no real way to deflect an all out attack from our nuclear triad, and I don't think we'd spare any expense to wipe them off the map. That wouldn't be great, even 10% of our nuclear arsenal could cause a nuclear winter effect in the region and a small but noticeable cooling worldwide.
I find it highly, highly unlikely that it'll get to that point though. The realities of a first strike on North Korea make it pretty improbable outside of some sort of of left field doomsday scenario.
Get ready to be surprised.
edited 23rd Mar '18 1:48:02 PM by archonspeaks
They should have sent a poet.I've been working on a little project regarding this, a collection of quotes about American xenophobia, anti-immigration, and anti any religion except Protestant Christianity. Long story short, the only groups to consistently be considered white in America are the English, Scandinavians, and maybe a few other pockets of Europe like the French.
The Irish, Italians, Germans, Austrians, Polish, Russians, Belgians etc., have all taken turns being the non-white menacing immigrants who were going to destroy America, outbreed the decent white people, then convert us all to their horrible ways, or worse, put the US under the influence of the Pope.
The rhetoric is often almost a word for word copy of what you hear used about immigrant groups and religions that are a hot topic today. For bonus points, sometimes a nationality or ethnicity that had been the target of discrimination a few generations before is later held up as an ideal immigrant group, that is the backbone of the country, unlike whatever new group was coming over now.
| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |![]()
If we don't go to war with North Korea, it'll be because actual sane people in the administration prevent Trump from pushing the button. It will not reflect on any virtues of our President or his immediate circle of advisers.
Oh I agree, though I think most likely what would stop up any potential war plan is the fact that the military has little interest in fighting that war. Any first strike would have to be advised on, planned and wargamed by the Do D, and the Joint Chiefs have made it pretty clear they consider North Korea a no-win scenario when it comes to military force.
It would darken a few days. Seriously, is there any way to express the magnitude of such a catastrophe that doesn't come across as inadequate to some degree? My only comfort would be that it wouldn't hurt anyone I know, personally. Otherwise it's an unimaginable horror.
edited 23rd Mar '18 2:01:06 PM by Fighteer
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"There is not.
edited 23rd Mar '18 2:01:09 PM by Fourthspartan56
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang(sorry)
edited 23rd Mar '18 2:11:14 PM by megaeliz
![]()
With things like that flippant is usually better.
Here's some door art from a minuteman silo. [1]
◊
edited 23rd Mar '18 2:02:58 PM by archonspeaks
They should have sent a poet.![]()
I love it
Absolutely, and honestly it's for the best. None of us are going to start supporting nuclear war just because we're flippant, but that flippancy can allow us to acknowledge overwhelming horror without shutting down.
edited 23rd Mar '18 2:15:45 PM by Fourthspartan56
"Einstein would turn over in his grave. Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded." -Chairman Sheng-Ji Yang

edited 23rd Mar '18 12:38:58 PM by M84
Disgusted, but not surprised