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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#191026: May 30th 2017 at 11:31:07 AM

[up][up][up] If you want Germans to consume more, you need to raise the damned Euro and control the gas and oil prices. What do you think the protests are about? Germany is heavily reliant on imports, so when the currency is low, the living costs rise, hence the common German has less money to spend. In addition the Interest rate is particularly low, therefore people who do have saved some money just keep it at the bank instead of investing it because there is nothing to win anyway. You can't force people to live beyond their means, or to sink money into something which doesn't bring them any gain.

edited 30th May '17 11:31:30 AM by Swanpride

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#191027: May 30th 2017 at 11:40:57 AM

Germany needs to apply massive domestic fiscal stimulus. This will:

  • Boost its labor market, adding lots of new buying power to its consumers.
  • Spur production aimed at domestic consumers and increase imports.
  • Drive wage inflation, making its products more expensive and helping to rebalance overall trade flows within the Eurozone.

This is all textbook international macroeconomics, taught everywhere except in the hallowed halls of Germany's institutions, and the reason it's not taught there is that Germans have a cultural paranoia about inflation. Even though the conditions for a Weimar-style hyperinflation do not and cannot exist within the current environment, they're still driven by fear of it, which is the underlying principle behind the ordoliberalism practiced by its leaders and, by extension, Brussels.

edited 30th May '17 11:42:22 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#191028: May 30th 2017 at 11:42:22 AM

I think that they'll look at Greece, the US rust belt and the like and say "no way, no how".

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#191029: May 30th 2017 at 12:49:15 PM

Perhaps I am too German, but for my life I don't understand what is bad about reasonable spending and saving for the future. I mean, you could argue that it is the Germans fault for not spending enough...but you can just as well argue that it is the US fault for consuming too much. Why should we start to indebt ourselves for the sake of other countries?

And, btw, what the article doesn't mention is that the money the German state is currently saving has the purpose to lower the debt we accumulated due to reunification. A debt which is way higher than the debt of a lot of other countries. You really can't blame us that we don't want to end up in a debt spiral in which we spend our tax payer money mostly on interest rates instead of doing something useful with it.

The lack of investments by companies are btw the result of 2008. Business confidence has grown, more and more companies have big investment projects in the pipeline. So at least this "problem" will be solved soon. Likewise the government is currently discussing what they will do with the surplus...though I do hope that they don't lower the VAT, because imho it is one of the fairest tax we have in Germany. Small explanation: the VAT which is mentioned in the article is only on "luxury" article. Unprocessed food, tickets for cultural events, books and for some reason flowers have half of the VAT. Meaning the poor person who just needs the basic gets it for a low VAT, the rich person who can afford a lot of extra-stuff, pays a high VAT for every luxury item he purchases.

Oh, btw, our trade within the EU is fairly balanced. We only have a surplus with the UK (which soon won't be an EU country anymore) and a massive Surplus with the US.

edited 30th May '17 12:50:53 PM by Swanpride

math792d Since: Jun, 2011 Relationship Status: Drift compatible
#191030: May 30th 2017 at 1:11:51 PM

So the White House Bullshit Coordinator has left the building, eh?

[up][up][up] As has been pointed out to me before, the fear isn't so much about a Weimar-style hyperinflation (since that was artificially induced by sneaky Weimar officials trying to attract American capital and thus inherently unlikely to happen in the Berlin Republic) and more about the immediate postwar years where the same sort of thing happened before the Economic Miracle of the 1950's.

edited 30th May '17 1:15:05 PM by math792d

Still not embarrassing enough to stan billionaires or tech companies.
ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#191031: May 30th 2017 at 1:22:42 PM

[up]

You say that as if anyone could wrangle the shit that comes out of Trump's head with a direct feed to the public.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#191032: May 30th 2017 at 1:23:38 PM

@Septimus; I feel like that statement needs far more explanation than you realize. Mostly because I honestly frequently understand very little about economics beyond basic economic details, nor do I know they'd look both at Greece and/or any part of US.

(Also I'm kind of sick and I feel like completely obvious statements are flying over my head right now.)

edited 30th May '17 1:48:47 PM by AceofSpades

ironballs16 Since: Jul, 2009 Relationship Status: Owner of a lonely heart
#191033: May 30th 2017 at 1:30:59 PM

[up]

Long story short - the US has a pretty nasty debt at the moment, and Greece has a much higher per-capita debt, to the point that they had to force austerity measures to keep from getting kicked out of the EU.

"Why would I inflict myself on somebody else?"
FluffyMcChicken My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare from where the floating lights gleam Since: Jun, 2014 Relationship Status: In another castle
My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare
#191034: May 30th 2017 at 1:43:32 PM

The greatest irony of all this is that the Trumps are German-Americans themselves . sad

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#191035: May 30th 2017 at 2:01:42 PM

[up][up] This is highly inaccurate for a number of reasons, but I'm afraid that a comprehensive discussion of European economics needs to move over to the General Economics thread. We've hashed it out there quite a few times.

@Swanpride: The same goes for your post. I have to keep it brief lest I be forced to thump myself for being off-topic, but in a nutshell, prudence for a business or a household is folly for a national government. The same rules simply don't apply. The Eurozone has a critical flaw in that it fails to provide a fiscal stability mechanism, so that there's no way to remedy asymmetric demand crises short of punishing austerity, which exacerbates the very problems it attempts to solve. Germany benefits from this asymmetry by artificially holding its own labor costs down, which has the effect of exporting deflation to the rest of the Eurozone. It's deeply unhealthy and unsustainable in the long run.

edited 30th May '17 2:04:40 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#191036: May 30th 2017 at 2:02:27 PM

I am not myself convinced that the explanation will make sense.

Some Supreme Court rulings, Gorsuch has not commented on the two judgments.

  • County of Los Angeles v. Mendez: Overturned a judgment against law enforcement in Los Angeles County, but a retrial may uphold the judgment on different grounds. Unanimous
  • Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute: Accepted a case about Ohio and voter roll purges therein. Apparently a prior ruling ruled that the purges were excessive.
  • Esquivel-Quintana vs. Sessions: Overturned a ruling by an immigration board that a conviction of statutory rape under California law is a reason for deportation. In the court's opinion, the federal definition requires the victim to be under 16, which wasn't the case here, and the federal government can't re-interpret the federal definition as "under 18". Unanimous.

(PS: First time I've read that California has a "closed in age exemption". Also apparently Hawaii once had an AOC of 14 and two other states of 15)

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#191037: May 30th 2017 at 2:41:06 PM

[up][up] I actually don't think that it is off-topic. Germany aside (though I have to add that labour costs in Germany are actually pretty high because what the worker gets in the end is only part of the actual wage, the rest is paid by the company into the social system for every worker they have), I am kind of stunned why your think that a consumption based economy like the US has is a good thing.

edited 30th May '17 2:42:39 PM by Swanpride

pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#191038: May 30th 2017 at 2:51:03 PM

I'm imagining Trump with a shotgun trying to stare down a monstrous rhino-like creature.

More like: Trump with a huge popgun, which he doesn't realize is just a stage-prop gun that only fires blanks — because Trump doesn't know Jack Shit about wielding real power, and there's no guarantee that the military will actually obey his dipshit orders...

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
PushoverMediaCritic I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out. from the Italy of America Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out.
#191039: May 30th 2017 at 3:21:58 PM

And Trump is firing and reloading that popgun endlessly and lashing out at anyone who dares to tell him that it isn't working.

IFwanderer use political terms to describe, not insult from Earth Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
use political terms to describe, not insult
#191040: May 30th 2017 at 3:32:43 PM

OK, guys, I have three 538 articles that might be worth discussing:

  • Black Voters Aren't Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party: Apparently black turnout has been way down in 2016 and special elections afterwards. 538 assumes it may be a reversion to the mean for black turnout, I have a slight suspicion it might have more to do with SCOTUS gutting the Voting Rights Act.
  • Some Of The GOP's Institutions Have More Reason To Be Loyal To Trump Than Others: This identifies 6 groups within the GOP (Conservative Intellectuals, Libertarians, Big Business/Wall Street, the Religious Right, the White Nationalists/Alt-right/Dixiecrats, and FOX + other propaganda stations for the GOP) and orders them from least to most loyal, and what would it take for each to defect from Trump.
  • 14 Versions Of Trump's Presidency, From #MAGA To Impeachment: While this article is from February, I just found it now, since it was linked in the article above. Here, 14 scenarios for how Trump's presidency may go, in five groups (extrapolations from the trend in February, Trump makes slight changes to what hewas doing then, Shit Goes Down, worst case scenarios short of Nukes, MAGA). Note that "stuff works out well for him" scenarios are seen as the least pausible (and more of a "Fucks up into success" than saying he is smart). Right now I believe we may be heading for scenario 8 (group 3) with a dahs of 2 and that scenario 13 is safely out of the realm of posibility since it would be bad politics for the Democrats by now. What do you guys think?

1 2 We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be. -KV
DingoWalley1 Asgore Adopts Noelle Since: Feb, 2014 Relationship Status: Can't buy me love
PushoverMediaCritic I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out. from the Italy of America Since: Jul, 2015 Relationship Status: watch?v=dQw4w9WgXcQ
I'm sorry Tien, but I must go all out.
#191042: May 30th 2017 at 4:31:23 PM

[up]We do have a Sarcasm Mode pothole.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#191043: May 30th 2017 at 4:35:49 PM

[up][up] I'll believe what Jared Kushner says when he can produce an erudite, informed Donald Trump that doesn't look he's spent a weekend at Bernie's.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#191044: May 30th 2017 at 4:35:59 PM

Trump lawyer Michael Cohen won't cooperate with Congress — it's a stub at the moment because it's considered 'breaking' (although it first appeared about three hours ago)

One of President Donald Trump's personal attorneys, Michael Cohen, has received an "invitation to provide information and testimony" that pertains to the Russia investigation to House and Senate intelligence committees, Cohen has confirmed.

"I declined the invitation to participate, as the request was poorly phrased, overly broad and not capable of being answered," Cohen told CNN Tuesday, adding that he considered it a "total fishing expedition."

"They have yet to produce one single piece of credible evidence that would corroborate the Russia narrative," Cohen said. He called the investigation a "rush to judgment."

Cohen is the second person in Trump's orbit to flatly deny a request from congressional investigators. Former national security adviser Michael Flynn refused to respond to a Senate subpoena and rebutted a House request last week through his lawyer.

The Senate intelligence committee voted last week to give the two leaders of their investigation — GOP Sen. Richard Burr and Democratic Sen. Mark Warner — subpoena power following Flynn's rejection. But Democrats have objected to House intelligence chairman Devin Nunes, R-California, still having a say on the issuing of subpoenas, despite a promise to step aside from the probe.

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#191045: May 30th 2017 at 4:37:39 PM

Republican or Democrat, Congress doesn't like people flipping them off like that. He's playing with fire.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#191046: May 30th 2017 at 4:42:19 PM

So many people refusing to play ball and/or requesting legal immunity. That's got to be a good sign. Everyone's terrified of this investigation actually succeeding.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#191047: May 30th 2017 at 4:45:06 PM

And as the pundits keep pointing out, if there wasn't any fire behind this smoke, they'd be jumping at the chance to prove that there was nothing to this story and discredit the opposition.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#191048: May 30th 2017 at 4:49:44 PM

Trump does jump at that opportunity frequently. Problem is, he does it with derisive language instead of evidence. His defense is never, "Here's the thing that proves you're all whiny crybabies who can't handle losing." It's always, "LOL Dems are being whiny crybabies, but seriously, hide the documents."

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
Swanpride Since: Jun, 2013
#191049: May 30th 2017 at 4:50:27 PM

lol...Spicer just claimed in the press conference that Trump and Merkel go along splendidly and that her remarks were a signal that Trump got what he wanted with his speech at NATO.

There is less bullshit at a meat farm.

Wyldchyld (Old as dirt)
#191050: May 30th 2017 at 4:52:56 PM

And Flynn is apparently cooperating:

Flynn providing documents to Senate, first batch by June 6

Former national security adviser Michael Flynn will provide documents requested by the Senate intelligence committee — including an initial batch by June 6 — a person close to Flynn said Tuesday.

The source said that Flynn's lawyers alerted the intelligence committee Tuesday that he would respond to the two subpoenas sent to his businesses and would also provide personal documents sought via a separate subpoena after Senate investigators narrowed the scope of the request. The source said that all the documents from the two subpoenas to the businesses will be provided. But the source said that fewer documents from the personal subpoena will be submitted after negotiations with the Senate committee. The source said it was too early to determine what percentage of that original request would be filled or how soon the entire request would be met.

Senate intelligence chairman Richard Burr of North Carolina and vice chairman Mark Warner of Virginia floated the prospect of holding Flynn in contempt of Congress if he continued withholding the documents.

The source added that the topic of Flynn testifying was not discussed today.

If my post doesn't mention a giant flying sperm whale with oversized teeth and lionfish fins for flippers, it just isn't worth reading.

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