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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#157576: Nov 21st 2016 at 3:51:49 PM

[up] DeBlasio says 5th avenue will remain open if Trump intends to stay there habitually.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#157577: Nov 21st 2016 at 3:51:56 PM

The papers were fair but the TV networks had a very strong pro-Trump bias to their coverage with how they pretended Clinton's scandals were bigger then they were, actively gave Trump free air time and downplaid Trump's scandals throughout the campaign.

[up] It's to up to him, it's up to the Secret Service.

edited 21st Nov '16 3:52:38 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#157578: Nov 21st 2016 at 3:54:15 PM

[up] True, though it doesn't stop the Mayor from acting like he has the choice.

animefan1 Since: Dec, 2013
Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#157580: Nov 21st 2016 at 4:01:05 PM

If the 5th Avenue businesses get annoyed enough they might be eager to help the city sue for damages over lost business...

We are largely talking million and billion dollar corporations here. For once it could work in our favor.

(This really only applies after the inauguration though. Before it, Donald is under no obligation as to where he stays.)

edited 21st Nov '16 4:03:15 PM by Elle

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#157581: Nov 21st 2016 at 4:05:03 PM

It's kind of funny honestly. I rarely find myself defending corporations and their interests, mostly because I find they often don't align with the general population's.

In this instance however I think they have every right to be pissed and I would wholeheartedly support them.

PotatoesRock Since: Oct, 2012
#157582: Nov 21st 2016 at 4:18:57 PM

The corporations are also within reason why I wouldn't be *too* worried about Same Sex Marriage or LGBT Rights.

A lot of Wall Street, Sports Companies, Hollywood, and probably the Silicon Valley have a very very very vested interested in not seeing Gay Rights/SSM rolled back. There's literally too much money to be had not discriminating against homosexuality as more people come out of the closet. And too many people in those companies that are Gay/Lesbian/etc. and have reason to fight back against the GOP on the matter.

Meanwhile, why I keep bapping you guys over the head for portraying the Senate Republicans as a unified bloc:

Republican Senator Bill Cassidy on his plan to replace Obamacare: Automatically force all uninsured into some form of coverage. No opt outs. The plans will cover less, but potentially cover more people than Obamacare does.

He's after the credits to cover people, with bigger lump sums for older people. And he wants to keep the leg of "No denying pre-existing conditions".

KarkatTheDalek Not as angry as the name would suggest. from Somwhere in Time/Space Since: Mar, 2012 Relationship Status: You're a beautiful woman, probably
Not as angry as the name would suggest.
#157583: Nov 21st 2016 at 4:23:08 PM

This summer, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX) introduced the Healthcare Accessibility, Empowerment, and Liberty Act, a bill that aims to replace Affordable Care Act.

...Oh come on, you didn't call it the Healthcare Empowerment, Accessibility, and Liberty Act? What kind of amateur job is this?

edited 21st Nov '16 4:24:10 PM by KarkatTheDalek

Oh God! Natural light!
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#157584: Nov 21st 2016 at 4:24:25 PM

[up] Hael? Not Heal?

That being said, we all know Trump is going to put his name on it.

edited 21st Nov '16 4:25:01 PM by CaptainCapsase

thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#157585: Nov 21st 2016 at 4:42:01 PM

I'm not sure if he can choose to stay there. The rules get a bit fuzzy when it comes to the security of the president. Generally the secret service can override the president when it comes to security.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
MadSkillz Destroyer of Worlds Since: Mar, 2013 Relationship Status: I only want you gone
Destroyer of Worlds
#157587: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:05:23 PM

The age of neoliberalism is over. The age of neonationalism has just begun.

Trump’s victory was predictable, and was predicted, but not by looking at polls. Polling has taken a beating recently having failed to predict the victory of David Cameron’s Conservative Party in the British general elections, then Brexit, and now the election of Donald Trump. One can argue about what’s wrong with the methods involved, but more fundamentally what polls do is to treat these phenomena as isolated events when they are in fact the product of a common set of causes 30 years in the making.

There are two issues at play here. The first is known as Galton’s problem, after Sir Francis Galton, the inventor of much of modern statistics. Galton’s problem is that when we treat cases as independent—the British election, Brexit, the U.S. election—they may not actually be independent. There may be links between the cases—think of Brexit’s Nigel Farage showing up at Trump's rallies—and there could be subtler contagion or mimicry effects in play as information from one case “infects” the other, changing the dynamics of the system as a whole. Could there then be a higher set of drivers in the global economy pushing the world in a direction where Trump is really just one part of a more global pattern of events?

Consider that there are many Trumpets blowing around the developed world, on both the right and the left. On the one side, insurgent right-wing parties are bulldozing the vote shares of traditional centrist parties all over Europe. For example, the Finns Party is the second-largest party in the Finnish parliament. In Sweden, the Swedish Democrats are the third-largest party in parliament. In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s political party, Fidesz, runs the country having won two elections. Meanwhile in France, the most popular political party is the National Front, which in all scenarios but one—whatever such exercises are actually worth—is expected to win the first round of voting in the 2017 French presidential election. But when all the other parties in France close ranks to prevent the National Front from winning the second round, it’s hardly a victory for democracy. And even in that bulwark of stability, Germany, the upstart Alternative for Germany beat German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union into second place in her own backyard.

A clash outside the Labor Ministry in Athens, Greece, January 2013. John Kolesidis / REUTERS

A clash outside the Labor Ministry in Athens, Greece, January 2013.

But there is also a left-wing version of this phenomenon. Consider the Scottish National Party (the clue is in the name), which has annihilated every other political party in Scotland, or Podemos in Spain, which has won 69 out of 350 seats in the Spanish parliament. Left-wing upstart Syriza runs Greece—even if it’s under Troika tutelage—and Die Linke in Germany is yet another drain on the vote share of the once-dominant Social Democrats, whose own vote share has utterly collapsed.

These parties of course have very different policy stances. The new right favors nationals over immigrants and has, at best, a rather casual relationship with the liberal understanding of human rights. The new left, in contrast, favors redistribution from top to bottom and inclusive rather than exclusionary growth policies. But they also have more in common than we think. They are all pro-welfare (for some people, at least), anti-globalization, and most interestingly, pro-state, and although they say it sotto voce on the right, anti-finance. To see why, consider our second issue.

At the end of World War II, the United States and its allies decided that sustained mass unemployment was an existential threat to capitalism and had to be avoided at all costs. In response, governments everywhere targeted full employment as the master policy variable—trying to get to, and sustain, an unemployment rate of roughly four percent. The problem with doing so, over time, is that targeting any variable long enough undermines the value of the variable itself—a phenomenon known as Goodhart’s law.

Long before Goodhart, an economist named Michal Kalecki had already worked this out. Back in 1943, he argued that once you target and sustain full employment over time, it basically becomes costless for labor to move from job to job. Wages in such a world will have to continually rise to hold onto labor, and the only way business can accommodate that is to push up prices. This mechanism, cost-push inflation, where wages and prices chase each other up, emerged in the 1970s and coincided with the end of the Bretton Woods regime and the subsequent oil shocks to produce high inflation in the rich countries of the West in the 1970s. In short, the system undermined itself, as both Goodhart and Kalecki predicted. As countries tried harder and harder to target full employment, the more inflation shot up while profits fell. The 1970s became a kind of “debtor’s paradise.” As inflation rose, debts fell in real terms, and labor’s share of national income rose to an all-time high, while corporate profits remained low and were pummeled by inflation. Unions were powerful and inequality plummeted.

The era of neoliberalism is over. The era of neonationalism has just begun.

But if it was a great time to be a debtor, it was a lousy time to be a creditor. Inflation acts as a tax on the returns on investment and lending. Unsurprisingly in response, employers and creditors mobilized and funded a market-friendly revolution where the goal of full employment was jettisoned for a new target—price stability, aka inflation—to restore the value of debt and discipline labor through unemployment. And it worked. The new order was called neoliberalism.

Over the next thirty years the world was transformed from a debtor’s paradise into a creditor’s paradise where capital’s share of national income rose to an all-time high as labor’s share fell as wages stagnated. Productivity rose, but the returns all went to capital. Unions were crushed while labor’s ability to push up wages collapsed due to the twin shocks of restrictive legislation and the globalization of production. Parliaments in turn were reduced to tweet-generating talking shops as central banks and policy technocrats wrested control of the economy away from those elected to govern.

But Goodhart’s law never went away. Just as targeting full employment undermined itself, so did making inflation the policy target.

Consider that since the 2008 crisis the world’s major central banks have dumped at least $12 trillion dollars into the global economy and there is barely any inflation anywhere. Almost a quarter of all European bonds now have negative yields. Unsurprisingly, interest rates are on the floor, and if it were not for the massive purchasing of assets in the Eurozone by the European Central Bank, deflation would be systemic. In sum, we may have created a world in which deflation, not inflation, is the new normal, and that has serious political consequences, which brings us back to Trump.

Using an ATM during a power outage in San Juan, Puerto Rico, September 2016. Alvin Baez / REUTERS

Using an ATM during a power outage in San Juan, Puerto Rico, September 2016.

In a world of disinflation, credit became very cheap and the private sector levered up—massively—with post-crisis household debt now standing at $12.25 trillion in the United States. This is a common story. Wage earners now have too much debt in an environment where wages cannot rise fast enough to reduce those debts. Meanwhile, in a deflation, the opposite of what happens in an inflation occurs. The value of debt increases while the ability to pay off those debts decreases.

Seen this way, what we see is a reversal of power between creditors and debtors as the anti-inflationary regime of the past 30 years undermines itself—what we might call “Goodhart’s revenge.” In this world, yields compress and creditors fret about their earnings, demanding repayment of debt at all costs. Macro-economically, this makes the situation worse: the debtors can’t pay—but politically, and this is crucial—it empowers debtors since they can’t pay, won’t pay, and still have the right to vote.

The traditional parties of the center-left and center-right, the builders of this anti-inflationary order, get clobbered in such a world, since they are correctly identified by these debtors as the political backers of those demanding repayment in an already unequal system, and all from those with the least assets. This produces anti-creditor, pro-debtor coalitions-in-waiting that are ripe for the picking by insurgents of the left and the right, which is exactly what has happened.

In short, to understand the election of Donald Trump we need to listen to the trumpets blowing everywhere in the highly indebted developed countries and the people who vote for them.

The global revolt against elites is not just driven by revulsion and loss and racism. It’s also driven by the global economy itself. This is a global phenomenon that marks one thing above all. The era of neoliberalism is over. The era of neonationalism has just begun.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#157588: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:20:44 PM

[up][up] Not everyone can watch videos, can you please provide some context for what you're posting?

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Heatth (X-Troper) Relationship Status: In Spades with myself
#157589: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:23:33 PM

'Hail Trump!': White Nationalists Salute the President Elect

Nice remember that the Godwin's Law stopped applying. Comparing to Hitler and Nazism is not an exaggeration anymore.

[up]Haven't watch the whole video, but I believe it is Lindsay Ellis (previously know as The Nostalgia Chick) talking about how to deal with family members who are Trump supporters in the coming Thanksgiving.

edited 21st Nov '16 5:27:05 PM by Heatth

Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#157590: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:29:04 PM

[up][up]Lindsay Ellis (formerly known as The Nostalgia Chick) talking about ways to survive if you are looking to deal with Thanksgiving dinner with a red-leaning family and maybe plant some seeds toward changing minds (as long as they aren't full on alt-right). Basically a theme some of us have been trying to repeat: empathy (and getting them to emphasize with your worries) will get further than anger an accusations.

edited 21st Nov '16 5:30:00 PM by Elle

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#157591: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:33:49 PM

Some bullet points of what she said:

- Cutting anyone who disagrees means you don't have any influence over them anymore, therefore it's not productive.

- They don't care about facts, focus on appeals to emotion and empathy and the smaller scale you can make it (i.e how you're worried for yourself, and your LGBT friends or friends of color), the better chance it has of making an impact.

- Be willing to listen no matter how stupid and ignorant you think they are. As hard it is if you don't listen to them or try to understand at least how they came to their views, they won't afford you the same courtesy.

- If you can't do the above atm because it hurts too much, that's ok. You need to take care of yourself first and foremost and you're not gonna be any use if you're paralyzed by grief.

- Don't waste your time on actual white supremacists, focus mainly on moderate people or conservative family members who at least care about you personally.

- It's unrealistic to expect them to flip their views after one conversation. The most you can do right now is expose them to new ideas and maybe get them to understand why YOU are concerned.

edited 21st Nov '16 5:34:41 PM by Draghinazzo

MadSkillz Destroyer of Worlds Since: Mar, 2013 Relationship Status: I only want you gone
Destroyer of Worlds
#157592: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:34:42 PM

-puts away gullitoine-

So I shouldn't execute them?sad

Can I still run around in my French Revolution gear as I scream Viva La Revolution?

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#157593: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:34:45 PM

Team Trump made an update video.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#157594: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:38:11 PM

So no TPP, but also no mention of the wall/ACA. Is he trying to mellow out?

edited 21st Nov '16 5:43:49 PM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#157595: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:39:40 PM

Okay. I've been holding off on this for a long time, in part because I haven't wanted to add to the doomsaying, but it's been weighing on me for a while now, and I just need to get it off my chest: Part of me believes that Trump, maybe even just months after taking office, could start WWIII and blow up the planet. Yes, I know that is incredibly irrational and maybe even unlikely. Yes, I know that other prominent leaders would likely take great pains to prevent such a thing from to pass. But Trump is Trump. He is irresponsible, impulsive, and would throw a tantrum at you if you were just doing your job. So what's to stop him from deciding to toss a nuke around if some foreign country so much as looked at him funny? Now, you might say that the people around could hold him back, and this may be true, but with the also impulsive Flynn as National Security Advisor, I'm not so sure.

I really don't want to believe this or come to any hasty conclusions, but this has been on my mind for the last week and just getting it out seemed to be the only way to alleviate it. And with any luck, everything will turn out A-OK and I'll have been worrying over nothing. But so far, I just haven't see anything that's really changed my mind, and I just don't know what to think.

Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#157596: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:40:09 PM

Ok, this time I'm going to ask for summary because having to watch him will make me angry for the rest of the evening. :P I overheard from the news something about "remove two regulations for every one passed". (Edit: the CBC article works.)

On another topic: What's going on with the electors trying to lead a revolt. They are basically trying to get people to change their votes not to Clinton but to a moderate Republican. No Republicans have expressed support for it yet though. They also hope that if they can deny Donald 270 votes and kick it to Congress, they will pick an establishment Republican given the chance.

edited 21st Nov '16 5:43:24 PM by Elle

MadSkillz Destroyer of Worlds Since: Mar, 2013 Relationship Status: I only want you gone
Destroyer of Worlds
#157597: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:42:23 PM

Please. A moderate Republican would be great.

I'd even take Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney, John Mc Cain or even Chris Christie.sad

Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#157598: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:42:43 PM

Wow, Donald almost sounds presidential and professional, like an actual politician who cares about the country he's going to run. It's obviously bullshit but it's a surprisingly good effort on his part.

Some bullet points of what he said for anyone who doesn't want to listen to THE DONALD mouth off:

- Reiterating his slogan of "putting America first", whether that be making steel, creating jobs, making cars, etc. Nothing surprising here.

- Withdrawing from the TPP is gonna be a thing.

- Cancelling job-killing restrictions on energy, i.e completely fucking over climate change. BAD DONALD BAD

- On national security apparently his team will be making an effort to protect America from "cyber attacks" and any other threats.

- On immigration, he says he plans to investigate "VISA abuse". Basically just a dogwhistle, it's weird seeing him use one after he's been so candid about everything else.

- Five year ban on lobbying, already knew that.

edited 21st Nov '16 5:43:57 PM by Draghinazzo

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#157599: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:43:51 PM

[up] To quote Trevor Noah, "If that man had run for President, he also would've lost to Donald Trump."

TotemicHero No longer a forum herald from the next level Since: Dec, 2009
No longer a forum herald
#157600: Nov 21st 2016 at 5:44:14 PM

The whole "put one regulation in, remove X number of previous ones" has been a libertarian dream for decades, so we know Trump is trying to cater to them with that.

Expergiscēre cras, medior quam hodie. (Awaken tomorrow, better than today.)

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