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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
538's models are less "Biased towards Republicans" and more "Biased towards extreme outcomes" (larger chance of Trump winning, but also larger chance of a Clinton landslide). Silver posted an article back on Oct. 24
explaining why 538's odds of a Trump had been larger than other sites: higher numbers of third-party and undecided, including polls back to 1972 (seems as though other sites stick to more recent data like 2000 onward), using t-distribution rather than the standard normal distribution (gives fatter tails all other factors equal), higher consideration to the correlation between state polls' behaviors.
As for early voting, actual results cannot be announced prior to the closing of polls. The estimates put forth so far are based on exit polling.
edited 1st Nov '16 11:30:28 AM by megarockman
The damned queen and the relentless knight.Regarding early voting, we know the political affiliation (if declared) of the voters who have done it. We cannot know how they voted.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!""If that's the case then I wont blame you for wanting to stop those trying, but if you can, avoid getting too....."us vs them" in your perspective as you go about it."
That's pure nonsense — we've made a cult out of pretending to be friendly with the other side, but Trump's candidacy has demonstrated that I, a brown-skinned college-educated Northeast liberal, have nothing in common with the rank and file of the GOP. For their political desires to be realized, mine and those of people like me have to go unrealized or directly counteracted. A line in the sand must be drawn.
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."I can kind of understand the people who vote twice. There's a lot of anxiety right now and people may be concerned their first vote wasn't counted properly. I voted via absentee ballot a month ago and I feel tempted to vote again - I won't because I know it's fraud and it'll nullify the vote I already cast
Every Trump voter should submit a second vote, if only to give us an opportunity to invalidate both votes altogether.
edited 1st Nov '16 11:49:57 AM by CrimsonZephyr
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."Prediction: The GOP will obstruct the voting process with accusations of voter fraud, requiring careful scrutiny of every state in order to make sure that no dirty Dems are double-voting. Investigations that result from this will uncover evidence of MASSIVE voter fraud with an immense number of double-votes for Trump. The invalidation of these crooked votes will result in a landslide victory for Clinton.
Trump will grumble about how the double-votes were clearly planted by Hillary, who personally visited every state to put in millions of fake ballots against herself.
edited 1st Nov '16 11:53:34 AM by TobiasDrake
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Honestly man, you might as well just come out and say we shouldn't let the wrong people vote.
As for the "at the end of the day Republicans are the enemy" bit, while that does seem to be the general tone here, and I get, it makes it kind of weird when people talk about "moderate Republicans" and what not. Maybe that's not who the ire is specifically directed towards, but it kind of has the same message.
edited 1st Nov '16 11:53:19 AM by LSBK
A "moderate Republican" who votes for Trump isn't fooling anyone.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"My view of moderate republicans is much different from my view of teal partiers.
I can disagree with a moderate republican on economics and the federal government's role in society. I can have reasonable discussions on these things with them.
Meanwhile, tea partiers are insisting that people like me are shoved in conversion camps, and say that POC should be kicked out of the country. I can't have discussions with them, and my views are fundamentally opposite to theirs, and theres no way to reconcile that. They hate me simply for existing.
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I'm not going to celebrate the democratic process when it can be harnessed in a lunatic's favor. It's the system we have (and likely the only one in existence where someone like me would have any sort of political franchise), so we have to work within its confines, but let's not pretend one is contributing to anything less than a catastrophe when a Republican's name is marked on their ballot.
edited 1st Nov '16 11:59:03 AM by CrimsonZephyr
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."A moderate Republican who's only moderate in their private beliefs is no moderate. If a moderate Republican votes Trump, they're voting for ultra-right fascism, for calling Mexicans rapists, for banning Muslims, for jailing political opponents, etc. Moderation of belief does no good unless it results in voting for a moderate. So I find moderate Republicans who vote for Trump despite knowing that he bragged about sexual assault to be no better in practice than rabid Tea Partiers.
That's right, boys. Mondo cool.
Exactly. There is no middle ground in this election. It's "status quo" versus "apocalypse".
If you're voting for Trump because you really believe in his radicalized agenda, you are not a moderate.
If you're voting for Trump because you really believe in the GOP party line and just want to stick it to the Democrat Hillary, you are not a moderate.
Hell, if you're voting for Trump because you've eagerly swallowed up every bit of propaganda released about Hillary and firmly believe she's a lying crook who secretly murders her opponents, guess what: you are not a moderate.
I can think of no other circumstances in which someone would be voting for Trump.
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Basically, people not going to the polls.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"