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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#146226: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:03:42 PM

Are you sure what the beltway consensus is through? A new war would be very politically unpopular right now at a time when both the far right and far left are preaching isolationism and even the centrists aren't likely to support one without a clear cause. Part of Clinton being part of the political establishment, as much as it's used as a critique, is that she pays a heck of a lot of attention to public opinion, something reinforced by the Podesta emails.

@everyone: "The Beltway" refers to the highways around Washington DC and is basically slang for the DC political machine and the area it operates from.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:06:58 PM by Elle

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#146227: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:03:47 PM

If we assume that the fundamentals of international dynamics really weren't changed, just temporarily obscured by World War II, then I'd argue m perspective is perfectly logical. A new war would be unpopular, but losing our empire is unthinkable.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:05:36 PM by CaptainCapsase

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#146228: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:04:02 PM

Any argument based on the premise of "you don't seriously think [X], do you?" without being able to present any actual evidence to support the idea that [X] is untrue is basically a conspiracy theory. Rather than having any arguments in its favor, it just casts aspersions on the idea that they could be wrong — usually be insinuating that their conclusion is so obvious that anyone who disagrees must be naive, ignorant, or a shill.

That attitude is, consciously or not, an attempt to shift the burden of proof. Instead of saying "I think [X] and here's why", they're saying "[X] is true, prove me wrong". By doing this, they can reject whatever argument you make, because they've made it your job to convince them that they're wrong, rather than accepting that it's their job to prove their extraordinary claims with extraordinary evidence.

Anyone who has to resort to this usually doesn't have much of an actual argument to back their claims.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
kkhohoho (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#146229: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:04:40 PM

[up][up]And the 'fundamentals of international dynamics' are... what exactly?

edited 24th Oct '16 12:04:59 PM by kkhohoho

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#146230: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:04:48 PM

[up][up][up] That's a big "if", and again is something for which you have offered no proof.

The reason we look askance at faulty argumentation like this is that it's not something that one can have a rational debate about. If one side creates a giant flimsy argument out of nothing and refuses to defend it with facts, there's nothing to discuss other than how stubborn and/or ignorant they're being. That's why we shut down such arguments if they go on long enough.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:06:02 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#146231: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:04:54 PM

"???? Not sure censorship is a good way to go about disputing dissenting opinions.

It's better to overwhelm them with irrefutable logic.

Also. The hell is "The Beltway"?"

The Beltway is conversational shorthand for the D.C. Metro area.

Also, we're not censoring him. He's been trading in conspiracy theories nonstop all year that are impossible to take seriously without accepting the central assumption that America is a neo-colonialist hegemon bent on dominating world politics at every level, and anyone committed to the preservation of American influence under the current paradigm (i.e. reality) is an unrepentant warmonger.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:07:42 PM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#146232: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:05:27 PM

blkwhtrbbt: Washington politics in general. The city is encircled by a highway loop formed by Interstates 95 and 495.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#146233: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:06:14 PM

Capsase, I think you're the only one assuming that. And poorly backing up your logic.

The world is fundamentally different than the world before WWII, for a whole goddamned eight decades and more long list. And you just seem primed to assume the worst outcome for everything, even when logic flies in the face of it.

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#146234: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:10:01 PM

some probably don't think "The American Empire" is a Thing
Then they probably don't believe in this thing called neocolonialism. Quite a few Arabs, particularly those intellectuals who are not Western sycophant, would be more than happy to regale you with a detailed lecture on "American neo-imperialism".

edited 24th Oct '16 12:11:22 PM by MarqFJA

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
SeptimusHeap MOD from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#146235: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:10:21 PM

~Captain Capsase: Please wind back the unsupported fringe theories, thanks. We may not need evidence that Donald Trump is racist, but your claims are non-obvious and very likely wrong to boot.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#146236: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:10:49 PM

kkho: A multipolar world where great powers have their own respective spheres of influence and ruthlessly compete against each other for power and influence, to render the geopolitics of the long 19th century down to a single sentence.

Let me add that while I suspect the beltway wants a war to assert American hegemony, it's very possible public opinion will render that untenable. Probably even likely. But don't doubt the capacity of a belligerent government to manufacture a Cassus Belli. What Bush did really isn't especially unusual by historical standards.

Edit: I'd argue these aren't fringe theories, just a someone unorthodox school of geopolitical thought. There's no strong scholarly consensus on whether or not the United States's unipolar moment is teneable in the long term, and many scholarly sources on geopolitics view US overseas actions in terms of imperialism. I'm simply putting two defensible stances together.

We can put this to rest though if you insist.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:16:33 PM by CaptainCapsase

Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#146237: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:15:58 PM

And following on from what Mark said, I'll throw //Confessions of an Economic Hitman'' into the ring. It's mostly about the crap we were up to in the 80s but a sobering read nonetheless. Not all the claims made are substantiated but they're being made by a guy who was in the thick of arranging it.

theLibrarian Since: Jul, 2009
#146238: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:16:39 PM

The entire notion that America has an "empire" is stupid to begin with. A base that only takes up the space of like an airport is not an empire. Any colonies we've had we've given up except for Guam and Puerto Rico and American Samoa, and we give those places voting rights (even if they can't be states). Plus those bases are there by the consent of the governments of the country's they're in, and if they want us gone, we will leave (like the Phillipines, Duterte, you bastard).

Alliances have been the basis of foreign policy for millennia. And besides, who cares about Turkey? Turkey is a backwater, wannabe major power that tramples all over its people's civil rights while criticizing the rest of the world for not being as morally bankrupt as Erdogan.

blkwhtrbbt The Dragon of the Eastern Sea from Doesn't take orders from Vladimir Putin Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: I'm just a poor boy, nobody loves me
The Dragon of the Eastern Sea
#146239: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:16:49 PM

"We can put this to rest now, as you've insisted, just as soon as I've squeezed my last two cents in."

It's like arguing with myself. How is it I've found a kindred spirit with someone with opposite viewpoints as myself?

Say to the others who did not follow through You're still our brothers, and we will fight for you
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#146240: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:17:07 PM

Let's put it this way: if we continue to elect Republican governments, sooner or later you'll get your vindication as far as unjust, imperialistic wars. But we are hopefully not headed that way, nor will we be if we can avoid it. And Hillary Clinton is not the warmonger you seem to think she is, without presenting any evidence other than vague fears about how America inevitably does that kind of thing because "history".

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#146241: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:19:25 PM

[up][up] I was 3/4ths writing it when I was asked to stop.

[up] I think public opinion is very likely to prevent an outright war just as it has under Obama, but that could change if the right set of circumstances allow the government to fan the flames of jingoism, and I don't think the democrats are as innocent as you claim; Iraq had Bipartisan support, it wasn't just a neoconservative cabal behind it.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:23:28 PM by CaptainCapsase

blkwhtrbbt The Dragon of the Eastern Sea from Doesn't take orders from Vladimir Putin Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: I'm just a poor boy, nobody loves me
The Dragon of the Eastern Sea
#146242: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:22:30 PM

Sorry. I do that a lot, which makes me notice it more when others do it, after I get called out on it. I don't mean it as criticism, I just found it amusing.

Say to the others who did not follow through You're still our brothers, and we will fight for you
Elle Since: Jan, 2001
#146243: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:23:28 PM

[up][up][up]Remember that central to Cap's premises is the view that individual decisions are largely irrelevant on the macro scale and social dynamics and historical trends can predict all. It is mostly Marxist-style historical determinism.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:26:39 PM by Elle

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#146244: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:26:34 PM

[up] it also happens to be very similar to the Nixon-Kissinger school of realpolitik ironically enough given communism was their Casus Belli, albeit descriptive rather than prescriptive.

It's also called historical materialism, and it's one of the elements of Marxist thought that saw widespread adoption beyond Marxist spheres in academia, because it's a legitimately brilliant way of looking at history.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:37:45 PM by CaptainCapsase

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#146245: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:37:35 PM

"I think public opinion is very likely to prevent an outright war just as it has under Obama, but that could change if the right set of circumstances allow the government to fan the flames of jingoism, and I don't think the democrats are as innocent as you claim; Iraq had Bipartisan support, it wasn't just a neoconservative cabal behind it."

I think we should introduce some numbers here, as far as the voting records go. The bill in question was the Iraq Resolution.

Yea: 215 R, 82 D
Nay: 6 R, 126 D
Abst: 2 R, 1 D
There's a kernel of truth in that assertion, but it obfuscates the truth that Democrats formed the vast majority of the bill's opposition. Here's a full breakdown. Here. There definitely were Democrats, including Hillary, who voted yes, but it was still a Republican (read: neoconservative effort).

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#146246: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:38:54 PM

[up] It was spearheaded by the GOP, but more than half of senate democrats (your figure is just he House) and major center left figures (Tony Blair) abroad also supported it. I'd call that bipartisan, not unanimously so, but enough to prove the point I'm making.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:41:40 PM by CaptainCapsase

smokeycut Since: Mar, 2013
#146247: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:41:59 PM
Thumped: This post was thumped by moderation to preserve the dignity of the author.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#146248: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:45:22 PM

[up] That's the democrat's pet piece of historical revisionism at work. There was every reason to suspect those claims could be fabricated, else the UN resolution for regime change in Iraq wouldn't have failed, and the declaration of war aganst Iraq wouldn't be a war crime.

edited 24th Oct '16 12:46:38 PM by CaptainCapsase

AceofSpades Since: Apr, 2009 Relationship Status: Showing feelings of an almost human nature
#146249: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:45:49 PM

It really doesn't, given that the scenarios you've suggested have none of the same causes that lead to the Iraq war. Unless you expect Iran or North Korea to launch terrorist attacks on US soil again.

It didn't happen just because, it happened there was a very specific attack providing motivation. Your reasoning here is not "we were attacked" or "political groups within the government used the attack as an excuse to wage war and benefit" but rather "the geopolitical reality and alliances are going to change in the future, therefor Clinton wants to and will wage war on someone." The latter is simply not supported by her history in dealing with foreign entities.

I mean, hell, it just seems like you think war is the first response to everything. Or that the desire for bringing troops back home will fade away. Or, again, you forget that war is expensive and there are options that can be reached for first with this scenario.

[up]The argument could be made you're making your own revisions in insisting that they should have known.Or that the UN should have authority over the US.

(I'm sure that many think it should, but current reality is it serves more as a diplomatic platform than anything else.)

edited 24th Oct '16 12:47:27 PM by AceofSpades

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#146250: Oct 24th 2016 at 12:46:45 PM

Yes, and the post 9/11 situation basically gave Bush carte blanche to do what he wanted until like 2005/2006.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

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