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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143551: Oct 12th 2016 at 12:54:47 PM

The issue is, I don't see any way out of partisan gridlock other than a Republican president or a massive political shift that weakens their vice grip on virtually the entire government beyond the presidency. Eventually demographic shifts will prove fatal to the GOP, but in the meantime we could easily see a global economic meltdown as bad or worse than 2008 if partisanship remains this bad.

edited 12th Oct '16 12:56:44 PM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143552: Oct 12th 2016 at 12:56:40 PM

It has been mentioned that the most likely venue for Democrats to regain the House on a long-term basis is the 2020 Census, which will reapportion Congressional districts and force states to redraw their maps, and could thus put a crimp on gerrymandering. Having a friendly Supreme Court would be immensely useful here, as any challenges to state districts would be heard by the Court.

It's definitely true that getting any part of the Democratic platform enacted will be an uphill battle without a major shift in Congress. Republican opposition is likely to be scorched-earth to the bitter end.

edited 12th Oct '16 12:57:28 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143553: Oct 12th 2016 at 12:59:29 PM

It's not just the democratic platform, though if Clinton accomplishes nothing democratic voter turnout will plummet in 2020, but the country'a ability to respond to a crisis that requires congressional involvement. Say a minor recession sets in, something that woukdn't be terribly bad with a proper response by policymakers, and the GOP tries to hold the ACA and planned parenthood hostage, for example.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:00:41 PM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143554: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:00:35 PM

Yep. We're nowhere near out of the woods even with a crushing Democratic victory this year. Even if Congress somehow goes all blue, state governments are still breeding grounds of reactionary nutjobbery.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:00:47 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143555: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:05:18 PM

I don't think we've hit the bottom yet. All it would take is a poorly timed recession and a response by congress along the lines of the annual debt ceiling crisis to go bad and we see another alt right demagogue sweeping Clinton away in 2020.

thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#143556: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:06:20 PM

which is something I don't quite get. The democrats have gotten the popular vote since, what? 04? 00? roughly half the country votes democrat come the presidential but they either dont vote in mid-terms or change opinions?

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143557: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:07:05 PM

[up][up]While it's a risk, to be sure, let's not borrow trouble. The popular vote tends to sway in favor of the economy, all other things being equal, and there's no sign of any imminent crisis that'll bring things down over the next four years. Historically speaking, Democratic administrations preside over strong growth in jobs and wages.

[up] It's an historical truth that American voters suffer from complacency and laziness in midterm elections. Lower turnout favors the more fanatical party, and that's the Republicans.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:07:54 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143559: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:10:37 PM

[up][up] Until very recently democratic presidents had at least a somewhat cooperative congress. Clinton will not, and her approval rating will likely be historically poor without any major policy initiatives.

With the implosion of the TPP, the (almost) inevitable China bubble is going to spread to the US, and that absolutely could burst soon enough.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:13:23 PM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143560: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:12:25 PM

Frankly, "doing nothing at all" would be good enough for the economy to coast along a path of slow improvement, given the current environment. About the worst thing would be for Republicans in Congress to obstruct a budget yet again and force a shutdown, which would have severe economic impact if it goes on long enough.

We're resilient enough to absorb a shock from China; I'm not really worried about that. The thing about global markets is that they tend to balance out shocks very rapidly, so long as the decline doesn't occur simultaneously across multiple nations like the 2008 crash.

The systemic macroeconomic failures in recent history that led to recessions were all either (a) results of deregulation and lack of oversight that occurred during Republican administrations, or (b) deliberately triggered by the Fed to curb inflation (see: Volker). Inflation is not likely to be an issue for the foreseeable future thanks to persistent weakness in consumer demand, and Clinton's not about to start stripping out banking regulation.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:15:27 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143561: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:14:28 PM

Only if policymakers actually care to respond rather than obstruct.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:15:06 PM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143562: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:17:16 PM

I'm going to rely on macroeconomic theory rather than intangible fears unless you can come up with a more concrete source for your concerns.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#143563: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:18:01 PM

@ Fighteer:

We're resilient enough to absorb a shock from China; I'm not really worried about that. The thing about global markets is that they tend to balance out shocks very rapidly, so long as the decline doesn't occur simultaneously across multiple nations like the 2008 crash.

But what about Europe? A final collapse of the Euro or even the European Union?

Keep Rolling On
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143564: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:19:06 PM

[up][up] What you're claiming is that the Great Depression didn't happen and we should never have abandoned laize fairs capitalism. Sure leaving the economy alone works well for a time, but crises are inevitable, and require policymakers responses to prevent collapses.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:21:16 PM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143565: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:19:26 PM

[up][up]Okay, now that is a serious concern. A macroeconomic collapse of the EU would indeed trigger a global shock of serious proportions. That said, it seems like they're coasting along on inertia right now. I refuse to predict which way that particular ball will roll. Maybe the execution of Brexit will topple the house of cards? I can't say.

[up] Are you high? I am saying that existing economic management institutions are sufficient to handle most reasonable problems for the next four years unless Republicans get in power and start tearing things down. Is there a massive investment bubble brewing somewhere in shadow banking that I'm not aware of, that is also sparking an overreach in consumer borrowing?

edited 12th Oct '16 1:21:48 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143566: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:25:26 PM

[up] No, I'm just not arrogant enough to assume we can predict recessions except in hindsight. It doesn't need to be Great Depression or 2008 bad, just bad enough that government intervention is recommended.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:26:46 PM by CaptainCapsase

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#143567: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:26:34 PM

Your attitude is akin to that of Chicken Little who, lacking any actual evidence of the sky falling, insists that it must be anyway because that would be the worst possible outcome.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#143568: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:27:18 PM

[up] Another recession will happen in a finite amount of time. We know that for a fact, in contrast to the sky falling. How long do you realistically think we can go before something goes wrong economically, and are you really that confident we won't still be gridlocked when that day comes?

If it's within a decade and it's not happened because we elected Donald Trump Jr. in 2020 than the answer is almost certainly yes.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:35:33 PM by CaptainCapsase

BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#143569: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:27:44 PM

I've been so caught up in the negativity surrounding this election and Hillary that I never took the time to really savor how we have a woman as a major presidential candidate.

I think I said that I found it asinine to vote for someone solely because she's a woman. Allow to clarify that doesn't mean I'munhappy that there's a female candidate at all. Hillary isn't my ideal candidate (is there such a thing?), but that doesn't mean I'm not allowed to be happy about there being a major female presidential candidate. Is that sexist?

Do not obey in advance.
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#143570: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:33:30 PM

The death of RGB Frankly I think the author of this article is being a bit dumb and arrogant. And Ginsberg's bluntness on Kirpatrick is perfectly in character for her.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#143571: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:35:21 PM

[up][up]Is it racist to be happy that a black guy could actually be president? Basing your support/vote solely on things like that is problematic (to me) but I don't see why it can't be a nice bonus.

Discar Since: Jun, 2009
#143572: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:37:09 PM

I had a conversation with my mom on the subject a while ago.

  • Mom: I feel like I have to vote for Hillary because she's a woman.
  • Me: You shouldn't. There are plenty of other reasons to vote for her.
  • Mom: I meant because it seems like a lot of people are voting against her because she's a woman.
  • Me: Okay, I'll give you that.

Writing a post-post apocalypse LitRPG on RR. Also fanfic stuff.
CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#143573: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:38:11 PM

Honestly, if we'd all just abandon the idea of an ideal candidate (whatever the hell that means) and settle for capable, well-intentioned, and intelligent, the American left wouldn't have these bizarre schisms where factions argue over standard-bearers that are politically 99.9% identical.

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
BearyScary Since: Sep, 2010 Relationship Status: You spin me right round, baby
#143574: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:39:22 PM

[up][up][up]I don't think it is racist.

I prefer to vote for someone who has a good and inspiring platform.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:40:10 PM by BearyScary

Do not obey in advance.
Greenmantle V from Greater Wessex, Britannia Since: Feb, 2010 Relationship Status: Hiding
V
#143575: Oct 12th 2016 at 1:39:37 PM

[up][up] It's something the Left does everywhere.

edited 12th Oct '16 1:39:47 PM by Greenmantle

Keep Rolling On

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