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AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#142026: Oct 7th 2016 at 7:04:04 AM

[up][up]Venezuela levels of incompetence, even then they took a hit but didn't crash and burn or took permanent losses.

And 2008 wasn't the real state alone, the entire financial sector while in bed with the mortgage loans conducted what could be considered a scam. By mixing sub prime ratings with prime ratings, leading to a practical lock down of the US financial sector. People started realizing something was iffy with all those real estate being left unoccupied thanks to increasing mortgage values, the foreclosure of the loads made to sub prime families who wouldn't be able to afford those estates and the inevitable demand drop due to increasing prices.

There were more details on the Economics thread, but the 2008 crisis alone could fill an entire page worth of explanation.

edited 7th Oct '16 7:05:11 AM by AngelusNox

Inter arma enim silent leges
3of4 Just a harmless giant from a foreign land. from Five Seconds in the Future. Since: Jan, 2010 Relationship Status: GAR for Archer
Just a harmless giant from a foreign land.
#142027: Oct 7th 2016 at 7:05:32 AM

Depends on how big they scream voter fraud?

"You can reply to this Message!"
MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#142028: Oct 7th 2016 at 7:06:43 AM

I get the feeling that part of why no one in the media is asking about this is because the 6 or so corporations that own the media don't want to talk about it.
Shouldn't antitrust laws have prevented such huge media conglomerates from existing?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
TheWanderer Student of Story from Somewhere in New England (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: Wishfully thinking
Student of Story
#142029: Oct 7th 2016 at 7:14:49 AM

Then how do you explain the recession eight years ago?

As I understand it, it goes a bit like this:

Investment firms sold other investment firms products that they didn't understand, and lied about both how safe those products were and what they were worth. These products were loosely based on the worth and reliability people's mortgages and how they could be monetized, but it could just as well have been based on anything else. It could have been based on lollypop sticks and nothing would have been fundamentally changed.

The firm that bought that product then turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around and sold it for more to the next firm, who turned around...

Until finally everyone started to realize that the product was worthless, and suckers were left holding the bag for an unsafe, worthless product that they had paid hundreds of millions for, and suddenly everyone knew it.

The suckers left holding the bag then suffered huge losses, as did all the companies and individuals that they had been managing money for, or who had been investing in them. Furthermore, banks which in earlier years had worked solely in individual and business accounts and loans had years ago gotten involved in these sorts of investment products, because restrictions on how they could do business were relaxed and they had looked at all the money being thrown around by investment and Wall St. firms and said "Hey, that's where the money is!"

So they suffered huge losses, both from being the suckers left holding the bag, or having invested in the suckers left holding the bag. Therefore, their customers lost money, and because the customers lost money and couldn't buy products or be sure that they'd still have a job in the following months or years, everyone else lost money from sales that couldn't be made, so those companies losing sales cut cots by firing or cutting the salaries of employees, which then made people buy less, which made more companies fire people or cut back on salaries to cut costs...

edited 7th Oct '16 7:17:58 AM by TheWanderer

| Wandering, but not lost. | If people bring so much courage to this world...◊ |
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#142030: Oct 7th 2016 at 7:16:02 AM

[up][up] Yes, but that's kind of water under the bridge at this point.

Regarding 2008: the actual impact of the 2006 housing market collapse was only a few percent of GDP. That was, however, enough to set off a cascading series of catastrophic losses in the highly leveraged banking sector, which caused a credit crisis and corresponding loss of confidence in the consumer sector. While large in absolute terms, it was nowhere near a Venezuela, or a Zimbabwe.

[up] In slightly more detail, there were two basic kinds of products marketed in the run-up to the financial crisis. One was these tranches of mortgage-backed securities, which had been (fraudulently) rated AAA to lure investors to buy them. The other was a series of complex "derivative" products, such as credit-default swaps, which were essentially bets for or against losses on those securities.

Imagine that you take out a mortgage, then buy insurance against that mortgage going under. The insurance product is itself an investment instrument with an expected payout/loss, so you then use the net value of the insurance policy as collateral for a loan to get another mortgage. Keep doing this until your original cash investment is leveraged many, many times over, such that there is no possible way for you to pay off the loans if anything falls apart in the chain of deals.

Now, imagine that the person doing this is a major Wall Street financial institution like AIG, and that its investors' stock price is based in part on the value of that chain of financial products, all of which are derived from some sub-prime mortgages in California or Florida. Then the Jenga tower falls over. But it isn't just that you're suddenly facing huge liabilities with no cash to pay them off: it's that the underlying value of trillions of dollars of security instruments is effectively unknown. Nobody will buy them, so those assets just sit on the books, gumming up your balance sheet and making it impossible to secure any sort of rescue financing.

The solution: the government has to step in to buy all those bad assets: injecting good money to replace bad so that the system will start functioning normally again.

edited 7th Oct '16 8:44:31 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#142031: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:27:18 AM

Donald Trump is fortunately his own worst enemy.

Trump blows off debate tune-up.

The format was nothing like what Trump will face in St Louis, when half the questions will be posed by uncommitted voters, and the candidates will have two minutes to respond to each question as Martha Raddatz of ABC and Anderson Cooper of CNN serve as moderators.

On Thursday night, Howie Carr, a conservative radio host and Trump booster, played the role of moderator, and the crowd was hand-picked by his campaign. The audience didn’t even ask Trump their questions. Carr did so on their behalf. Before the event, Carr had said Trump would take 20 questions. He stayed for about a dozen.

And while Sunday’s debate will stretch for 90 minutes without a bathroom break, Trump bolted from his town hall in Sandown after barely more than one-third of that time.

Trump’s campaign did place a two-minute countdown clock in front of their candidate on Thursday. He repeatedly blew past that time limit anyway.

“I said forget debate prep. I mean, give me a break,” Trump said at one point. “Do you really think that Hillary Clinton is debate-prepping for three or four days. Hillary Clinton is resting, okay?”

I do question at times how seriously Trump is taking this whole thing. Debates may be a pain in the ass, but they're a necessary pain in the ass. I imagine the act of governing will be a major pain in the ass. Welcome to Earth.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#142032: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:30:35 AM

He's already said he's gonna pass off the job of actually governing to Pence. He wants the power trip.

edited 7th Oct '16 8:30:47 AM by LeGarcon

Oh really when?
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#142033: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:33:10 AM

One might expect him to adopt a public persona of unconcern about the debate, but to do it in private, when there are no cameras watching... man.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#142034: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:37:16 AM

I think that, other than constantly changing his mind on everything and telling people what they want to hear, otherwise with Trump, what you see is what you get.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#142035: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:42:51 AM

I know I shouldn't be shocked any more, but it keeps happening. The degree to which Trump is genuinely representative of the know-nothing right is astonishing.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#142036: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:58:33 AM

Regarding the hurricane talk: Hurricane Matthew is a liberal conspiracy. Specifically, the laws of physics have conspired to unleash a highly destructive weather storm upon unsuspecting people. Despite conservative insistence that physics should not be taking sides on partisan matters, the unfortunate truth is that reality has a liberal bias.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#142037: Oct 7th 2016 at 8:59:34 AM

Speaking of, it's kinda nice that the NWS sends my phone all these alerts and stuff. Makes me feel like the feds actually care.

Oh really when?
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
M84 Oh, bother. from Our little blue planet Since: Jun, 2010 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
Oh, bother.
#142039: Oct 7th 2016 at 9:24:38 AM

[up][up][up] If liberals really could control the weather, things would be so much simpler.

Disgusted, but not surprised
thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#142040: Oct 7th 2016 at 9:25:51 AM

Where I'm from we don't get natural disasters so it's kinda weird for me to see a weatherman say "leave now or you will die" and people just kinda shrug it off. Are apocalyptic pronouncements more common on the coasts or are Floridian folk really as crazy as the memes say?

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#142041: Oct 7th 2016 at 9:26:34 AM

[up][up]It's also amusing in that the technology to control the weather and the sophistication of the conspiracy needed to hide it would be absolutely amazing to have access to — think of all the things we could accomplish!

[up]The North American continent has a ton of nasty weather that can be quite fatal to the unprepared or unlucky. Along with that comes a handful of folks who are too stubborn/ignorant to believe themselves to be in danger from said weather.

edited 7th Oct '16 9:27:47 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#142042: Oct 7th 2016 at 9:31:27 AM

HAARP.

Inter arma enim silent leges
LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#142043: Oct 7th 2016 at 9:32:08 AM

Honestly I've never cared much about extreme weather. I dunno if I'd call myself stubborn so much as apathetic. Like what am I gonna do? It's the weather, if it really wants to kill me there's about jack all I can do to fix that.

Either way I bought lots of snacks and gasoline since my town is straight up outta food and gas and everything. Nothing to do but wait.

edited 7th Oct '16 9:33:41 AM by LeGarcon

Oh really when?
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#142044: Oct 7th 2016 at 10:32:07 AM

@Trump thinks Hillary isn't preparing: Did he learn nothing from the first debate? She clearly takes this seriously.

FluffyMcChicken My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare from where the floating lights gleam Since: Jun, 2014 Relationship Status: In another castle
My Hair Provides Affordable Healthcare
#142045: Oct 7th 2016 at 10:39:45 AM

I wonder if he's actually not focusing on debating against Hillary per se, but aiming to come off as the more entertaining and "charismatic" politician on screen. After all, he plays to the anti-stuffy-politico crowd anyways.

I just saw a guy this morning wearing a Batman-themed shirt that is a mock campaign poster: "Joker for President: Let's Bring a Real Clown to the House!"

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#142046: Oct 7th 2016 at 11:10:59 AM

I also have to wonder if Trump is lying about preparing to save face or to manipulate expectations.

edited 7th Oct '16 11:11:28 AM by CaptainCapsase

speedyboris Since: Feb, 2010
#142047: Oct 7th 2016 at 11:11:51 AM

[up][up] Kinda unfortunate timing on that joke, given the rash of "creepy clowns in the woods" in many parts of the country.

edited 7th Oct '16 11:12:17 AM by speedyboris

BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#142048: Oct 7th 2016 at 11:19:46 AM

He'll likely lose, but Trump is the final warning to the elites

Donald Trump will probably lose the election. But he is a final warning. Unless political elites of both the left and the right become more humble, unless they once again ask themselves how their agendas will play in Peoria, the next rough beast might slouch over the corpse of the republic.

“Will it play in Peoria?” goes back to the days of vaudeville. The city of 115,000 in central Illinois was once considered the ultimate focus group, the embodiment of Middle America, the place to test a joke or a soda or a social policy to learn what white folks without a fancy degree thought of it. Back in the day, you knew better than to defy the settled judgment of this ultimate test market. You went as far as Peoria would let you, and no further.

But we grew impatient. You have to fight Jim Crow, whatever Peoria thinks. Free trade will lift most boats, even if it swamps a few. The environment is too precious, and at too much risk, to go slow. Lower taxes and less red tape will help the economy grow, even if it profits some more than others.

The left wanted social justice, protection for minorities, a cleaner environment. The right wanted lower taxes and trade deals. Despite the rhetoric, each accommodated the other. Republicans left the Democrats’ progressive policies largely intact; Democrats learned to embrace, or at least reluctantly accept, globalization.

And everybody knew what was really going on in Washington. A tax break for you. A subsidy for me. You take care of my client and I’ll take care of yours. Deal? Then let’s celebrate. We’ll expense it.

So this brings up two ideas - one, that ideas should be tested to see if they work well with the masses, and two, that it was perfectly normal for politicians to say what their people wanted to hear while secretly compromising to get stuff done.

Until it didn't work anymore, because too many people were hurting.

Meanwhile, Peoria is hurting. The city is home to Caterpillar. But the heavy-equipment giant has outsourced most of its work force overseas or to so-called right-to-work states.

But what does Washington care? The left worries more about combatting global warming than about blue-collar workers with bad backs and no jobs. The right promises to retrain them, but somehow never gets around to it.

The laid-off boys in the bars of Peoria blame the illegals, the only ones even more voiceless than themselves. They seethe at the Wall Street suits who destroyed the economy and got off scot-free. And what the hell is transgender, anyway? They look at their daughter’s report card. She’s only getting Cs. What future is there for anyone who’s only getting Cs?

I will be your voice, Donald Trump promises. I will get your job back, or at least wreak revenge on the company that gave it away to a guy in Bangladesh. I will send the Mexicans back and keep the Muslims out and build a wall around our country. And you’ll have a man, a real man, a white man, your kind of guy, in the White House. We’ll be back in charge, folks, you and me. It’ll be great again. And they’ll never take it away from us.

It ends with a warning:

Let’s not sign those trade deals until we know which jobs will be at risk and what we can do for those workers. Let’s not shut the coal mines without a thought for what will become of the miners. Don’t offer amnesty until you have control over the border. As we move to driverless cars and machine learning and an economy in which any action that is repeated can be automated, let’s spare a thought for the kids who only get Cs in school. What will become of them? What do you mean you have no idea? That’s your job! Let’s bring some small measure of consensus back to political culture. Let’s bring humility back. Let’s go back to asking: Will it play in Peoria? And if it won’t, then let’s think about that before we push ahead. Because you really, really don’t want to see what comes after Donald Trump.

In other words, think about the effects of policies before trying to enact them because they just have to be done that quickly. Prepare for unforeseen consequences.

I wonder if there's a possibility of bringing consensus back. I think maybe there is, if politicians start focusing less on divisive issues and more on things like how to help those who are jobless, how to improve schools, reduce crime, etc. Things that are far less partisan and are more universal concerns.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#142049: Oct 7th 2016 at 11:23:45 AM

As much as I'd like to play ivory tower politics and tell those folks from Peoria that we really know what's best for them if they'll just trust us, it is true that unless Democrats get buy-in for their policies, it's going to be an uphill slog. Also, somewhat obviously, Democrats don't share a single political viewpoint and have made their share of messes.

The problem is that the article you just cited, again, presents the false-equivalence dilemma. Right now, Democrats are attempting to compromise and educate and negotiate. Republicans are not. Until they get punished for it, we're in for a long, rough haul.

edited 7th Oct '16 11:27:09 AM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Jetyl The Dev Cat from my apartment Since: Jan, 2013 Relationship Status: Shipping fictional characters
The Dev Cat
#142050: Oct 7th 2016 at 11:29:16 AM

[up][up] generally I agree. partisan-ism needs to dial back big time, however I have doubts that there is a "Peoria" anymore. A place where easy, all encompassing focus testing can occur. America might be too diverse to appropriately capture that.

also, as [up] said, the problem is one party has completely gone insane. and comprising with them is kinda damn near impossible, since they don't wanna compromise.

edited 7th Oct '16 11:31:31 AM by Jetyl

I'm afraid I can't explain myself, sir. Because I am not myself, you see?

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