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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
We'll have to see. This offers Trump a potential reset, but only if he doesn't make a fool of himself in the second debate. If he can maintain the pseudo-stately demeanor he started the first debate with, I'd expect the race to tighten again, though that in and of itself is unlikely, and still won't put him in a position to win without a good third debate, no additional meltdowns, and unfavorable news cycles for Clinton in Novemeber.
In other words, Trump has run out of room for mistakes, and needs Clinton to fumble in order to win. 1:4 sounds about right, but I'm still deeply uncomfortable about that.
538's Now-cast seems to have Clinton pulling ahead in Iowa, although it's a very slim lead.
The VP debate doesn't seem to have affected the polls that much, but that could change.
Oh God! Natural light!IAT: Uh, what you're describing is basically threatening the debate participants with assault. If this is a joke, it's a terrible one. If you're joking, you're basically suggesting something that just won't fucking work and is a terrible idea. Anything done under the threat of violence is never a good thing.
Also, we actually went over this regarding the moderators behavior: Apparently many who end up moderating the debate have like, this platonic ideal regarding what moderators are supposed to do, which is basically just ask questions and otherwise disappear from the equations while the two participants do their best to persuade the American public. Many who end up moderating these things don't think they ought to be influencing the debate like you or many of the rest of us would like.
TL; DR on that subject; The moderators think it's up to the participants to fact check each other during the debate, and that it's not the job of the moderators or anyone else. They've got a point.
edited 5th Oct '16 9:42:48 AM by AceofSpades
I should point out that this is consistent with what I remember being taught in an actual debate/speech class; it was up to the participants to make their points, not the moderators. The moderators were there to moderate, as in direct the conversation the way it was supposed to go and make sure we stayed within our time limit. Otherwise it would just be two people arguing over any little thing that came into their heads. Being smart enough to realize when the other guy was saying lies, was just wrong, or was coming to what we perceived was a flawed conclusion was up to the actual debaters. The point of the whole thing was for two people to debate each other, not talk at each other and have a third person occasionally interject.
This boils down to what people think moderators should be there to do. What the professionals try to do is keep in line with what has come to be expected of debates in general.
Not sure where it was from (maybe a Washington Post or Vox Op-ed), but something I read this morning argued that the main issues with her moderation was a combination of lackluster questions (in particular buying into that Republican debt/deficit conflation and framing questions in terms of "a lot of people think this" rather than the substance of an issue) and not going further to explore a question brought up by one of the debaters.
More details about Trump's anger that Pence out-performed him last night.
edited 5th Oct '16 10:50:50 AM by speedyboris
"Nobody upstages Donald Trump! Not even me, see? I'll kill me before that happens!"
Kostya: All that tells me is that maybe people are missing the point of what a debate is supposed to be for. Also, if the candidates can't prove their points themselves, then the moderator saying anything just sort of makes them look ineffective. A large part of what debates are supposed to do is let them prove they know their shit, so having to rely on someone else to fact check like that just sort of takes away from that.
His daughter might be able to convince him not to; she seems a good deal savvier than her father in many respects. In any event, it really isn't hard to do better than him in a one on one debate. The format doesn't allow for zingers and his weird whispering into the mike was obviously weird without anyone else to distract from it.
edited 5th Oct '16 11:16:27 AM by AceofSpades
Donald Trump is doing worse among white voters than Romney did. To makes things even better, the trends are going against him. And his core demographics aren't registering to vote.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-doing-worse-than-romney-did-among-white-voters/
Educated whites and white women in general are a problem for him. He's only up by 4% among the latter, and that's not nearly enough.
If Gary Johnson and Jill Stein weren't being assholes (and/or their supporters were capable of being realists when Western civilization is at stake), Clinton could be winning in a landslide right now.
Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.Some are more tactful at this than others.
That's great. He's so screwed if he can't even get white folks to vote for him.
I love seeing statistics like this. It reminds me that the American people aren't so stupid as to fall for Trump. That's comforting.
My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.Re: Defense of Trump:
Watching the Daily Show reaction to the VP Debate, and Trevor Noah describes Pence as that guy who can't convince his friend not to drive drunk but is very good at convincing the police that he isn't actually drunk.
Also the most consistent compliment he had for Trump is "broad-shouldered"
@ Ambar: Would you mind going into a bit more detail about that video? I can't watch it right now.
Writing a post-post apocalypse LitRPG on RR. Also fanfic stuff.

I'm not sure if Kaine should have been focusing fire on Pence, people vote for the top of the ticket so that's where one should attack.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran