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940131 Since: Feb, 2014
#139977: Sep 24th 2016 at 1:11:16 AM

Really? That's all it took? Bush's second victory is even more remarkable. At that point he'd already failed and he's not smarter than John Kerry.

thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#139978: Sep 24th 2016 at 1:22:45 AM

There are a lot of factors that go into who "wins" a debate and sadly facts are not nearly as important as charisma and looking "strong". Clinton's game with fact checking will be less to actually get the facts out there and more to get trump to slip up. Her win state is essentially making him lose and his win state is just not being trump for 90 minutes.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
940131 Since: Feb, 2014
#139979: Sep 24th 2016 at 2:07:18 AM

[up] That's true. When he came back from Mexico, he got a lot of credit from even his most virulent critics, but when you look at it objectively, he didn't do anything spectacular and even looked a bit akward. He just didn't act like an ass when he was there. Hillary's going to have to hammer away at those negatives. If Trump can stay calm, look Presedential and not have a major gaffe he could win the debate even though Hillary clearly has a stronger grasp on most of the issues.

There have been a lot of terrorist attacks lately. Does this help Trump since his campaign is being run on fearmongering about Muslims?

edited 24th Sep '16 2:11:26 AM by 940131

GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#139980: Sep 24th 2016 at 2:13:29 AM

Yes, Clinton's lack of charisma is her biggest flaw when compared to Trump in regards to the debates. The worst thing that could happen for Clinton during the debates is if Trump shows restraint and acts presidential. Trump has the charisma, but said charisma is negated by the horribleness of his viewpoints. The debates are Trump's to lose, not Clinton's to win.

Wizard Needs Food Badly
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#139981: Sep 24th 2016 at 2:51:15 AM

My only hope is that his charisma is too connected to his yammering for him to rely on it too much. The more practiced he is, the less charismatic he becomes. And the more charismatic he is, the more likely he will slip and say something so outrageous, Hil wins by default....assuming she doesn't say something dumb herself.

pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#139982: Sep 24th 2016 at 5:50:00 AM

Who "wins" the debates is largely a matter of the criteria you judge by. Remember the Nixon/Kennedy debates? People who listened to it on the radio said Nixon clearly won. But people who watched it on TV said Kennedy was the winner.

This because, while Nixon was the better public speaker and had superior policies, he had just recovered from a bout of the flu and had lost ten pounds. Plus, he refused to shave in the afternoon and sported a five-o'clock shadow that no amount of makeup could hide. So he looked pale, sickly, and sinister. Kennedy, by contrast, was the very picture of youth, health, vigor, and photogenic handsomeness.

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
Krieger22 Causing freakouts over sourcing since 2018 from Malaysia Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: I'm in love with my car
Causing freakouts over sourcing since 2018
#139983: Sep 24th 2016 at 5:51:01 AM

Roger Angell of the New Yorker: My Vote

I am late weighing in on this election—late in more ways than one. Monday brought my ninety-sixth birthday, and, come November, I will be casting my nineteenth ballot in a Presidential election. My first came in 1944, when I voted for a fourth term for Franklin Delano Roosevelt, my Commander-in-Chief, with a mail-in ballot from the Central Pacific, where I was a sergeant in the Army Air Force. It was a thrilling moment for me, but not as significant as my vote on November 8th this year, the most important one of my lifetime. My country faces a danger unmatched in our history since the Cuban missile crisis, in 1962, or perhaps since 1943, when the Axis powers held most of Continental Europe, and Imperial Japan controlled the Pacific rim, from the Aleutians to the Solomon Islands, with the outcome of that war still unknown.

The first debate impends, and the odds that Donald Trump may be elected President appear to be narrowing. I will cast my own vote for Hillary Clinton with alacrity and confidence. From the beginning, her life has been devoted to public service and to improving the lives of children and the disadvantaged. She is intelligent, strong, profoundly informed, and extraordinarily experienced in the challenges and risks of our lurching, restlessly altering world and wholly committed to the global commonality. Her well-established connections to minorities may bring some better understanding of our urban and suburban police crisis. I have wished at times that she would be less impatient or distant when questions arrive about her past actions and mistakes, but I see no evidence to support the deep-rooted suspicions that often surround her. I don’t much like the high-level moneyed introductions and contacts surrounding the Clinton Foundation, but cannot find the slightest evidence that any of this has led to something much worse—that she or anyone has illegally profited or that any legislation tilted because of it. Nothing connects or makes sense; it beats me. Ms. Clinton will make a strong and resolute President—at last, a female leader of our own—and, in the end, perhaps a unifying one.

The Trump campaign has been like no other—a tumultuous and near-irresistible reality TV, in which Mr. Trump plays the pouty, despicable, but riveting central character. “I can’t stand him,” people are saying, “but you know, wow, he never stops.”

We know Mr. Trump’s early transgressions by heart: the female reporter who had “blood coming out of her whatever”; the mocking of a physically impaired reporter; the maligning of a judge because of his Mexican parents; the insulting dismissal of the grieving, Gold Star-parent Khans; the promised mass deportation of eleven million—or two million—undocumented immigrants, and more. Each of these remains a disqualifier for a candidate who will represent every one of us, should he win, but we now are almost willing to turn them into colorful little impairments. “Oh, that’s ol’ Donald—that’s the way he is.”

But I stick at a different moment—the lighthearted comment he made when, in early August, an admiring veteran presented him with a replica of his Purple Heart and Mr. Trump said, “I always wanted to get the Purple Heart. This was much easier.” What? Mr. Trump is saying he wishes that he had joined the armed forces somehow (he had a chance but skimmed out, like so many others of his time) and then had died or been scarred or maimed in combat? This is the dream of a nine-year-old boy, and it impugns the five hundred thousand young Americans who have died in combat in my lifetime, and the many hundreds of thousands more whose lives were altered or shattered by their wounds of war.

I take this personally, representing as I do the last sliver of the sixteen million Americans who served in the military in my war. I had an easy time of it, and was never in combat, but, even so, as I have written, I experienced the loss of more than twenty close friends, classmates, and companions of my youth, who remain young and fresh in memory. I have named them in previous pieces, along with some wounded survivors, like my friend Gardner, an infantry captain who landed at Normandy Beach and fought at Hürtgen Forest and Aachen and the Battle of the Bulge, was twice wounded, had five Campaign stars, and received numerous decorations, including the French Croix de Guerre, but who for the rest of his life would fall into wary silence whenever a thunderstorm announced itself. Also my late brother-in-law Neil, who lay wounded on the field for two days during the battle of Belfort Gap, and who hobbled with a cane all his life, and with two canes near the end. Every American of my generation can supply stories like these, and once learned and tried to forget that, worldwide, seventy million people died in our war.

Mr. Trump was born in 1946, just after this cataclysmic event of our century, and came of age in the nineteen-sixties, when the implications and harshness of war were being debated as never before, but little or none of this seems to have penetrated for him—a candidate who wants to give nuclear arms to Japan and South Korea and wishes to remain unclear about his own inclinations as commander of our nuclear triad. This makes me deeply doubt his avowed concern for our veterans or that he has any sense of their sufferings.

Reservations like this are predictable coming from someone my age, but I will persist, hoping to catch the attention of a few much younger voters, and of those who have not yet made up their minds about this election. I do so by inviting them to share an everyday experience—the middle-of-the-night or caught-in-traffic moment when we find our hovering second thoughts still at hand and waiting: Why did I ever?… What if?… Now I can see… and come to that pause, the unwelcome reconsideration that quiets us and makes us mature. It’s the same thought that Judge Learned Hand wanted posted in every school and church and courthouse in the land: “I beseech ye … think that we may be mistaken.”

Mr. Trump has other drawbacks I haven’t mentioned: his weird fondness for Vladimir Putin; his destruction of the lives and hopes of small investors and contractors unlucky enough to have been involved in his business dealings; his bonkers five-year “birther” campaign, now withdrawn, though without accountability—but never mind all this, for now.

Mr. Trump is endlessly on record as someone who will not back down, who cannot appear to pause or lose. He is a man who must win, stay on the attack, and who thinks, first and last, “How will I look?” This is central, and what comes after it, for me, at times, is concern for what it must be like for anyone who, facing an imperative as dark and unforgiving as this, finds only the narcissist’s mirror for reassurance.

If Donald Trump wins this election, his nights in the White House will very soon resemble those of President Obama. After he bids an early goodnight to his family, he sits alone while he receives and tries to take in floods of information from almost innumerable national and international sources, much of it classified or top secret. His surroundings are stately, but the room is shadowed and silent. There are bits of promising news here and there, but always more bloodshed, sudden alarms, and unexpected lurking dangers. The import of the news is often veiled or contradictory, or simply impenetrable. The night wears on, and may contain brief hours of sleep. There’s time to tweet. A new day is arriving, and with it the latest rush of bad news—another police shooting out West, another suicide bomber in Yemen, and other urgent briefings from a world already caught up in the morning’s difficult events. He needs to respond, but the beginning of this President’s response is always reliably at hand: How will I look?

I have disagreed with her a lot, but comparing her to republicans and propagandists of dictatorships is really low. - An idiot
Ramidel Since: Jan, 2001
#139984: Sep 24th 2016 at 8:02:32 AM

I suddenly had a thought. Doesn't Scott Adams support electing leaders based on their hair?

And if so, how can he stomach supporting the toupee? It's unnatural!

Krieger22 Causing freakouts over sourcing since 2018 from Malaysia Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: I'm in love with my car
Causing freakouts over sourcing since 2018
#139985: Sep 24th 2016 at 8:25:42 AM

Something about Trump being a "hypnotist".

Mind you, this is the man who claimed he was endorsing Hillary due to perceived threats on his life from Hillary supporters.

I have disagreed with her a lot, but comparing her to republicans and propagandists of dictatorships is really low. - An idiot
TerminusEst from the Land of Winter and Stars Since: Feb, 2010
#139986: Sep 24th 2016 at 8:33:45 AM

[up]

He thinks that Trump is intentionally using certain hypnotist tricks (repetition, emphasis etc.) on purpose. Therefore he's secretly smart.

Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#139987: Sep 24th 2016 at 8:51:36 AM

[up] I'd say he very likely is using various psychological manipulation techniques. Probably not formally or even semi-formally learned (but I wouldn't entirely rule that out), but he's definitely using these sorts of tricks.

As far as "intelligence" goes, he's smarter than he appears in my opinion. There's a fair amount of Obfuscating Stupidity going on with Trump, at least in regards to certain facets of intelligence. Which is terrifying; he has no idea how to run a business much less a country, but he's one hell of a salesman.

edited 24th Sep '16 8:53:03 AM by CaptainCapsase

MarqFJA The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer from Deserts of the Middle East (Before Recorded History) Relationship Status: Anime is my true love
The Cosmopolitan Fictioneer
#139988: Sep 24th 2016 at 9:40:30 AM

... If he has no idea how to run a business, then how come he hasn't squandered his inherited wealth by now?

Fiat iustitia, et pereat mundus.
Gilphon (4 Score & 7 Years Ago)
#139989: Sep 24th 2016 at 9:45:06 AM

He has. More than once. His dad bailed him out once, and also the banks bailed him out once because he'd borrowed so much that he was dragging the banks down with him.

And now he's been remarkably cagey about exactly what finances look like- he says he based his estimation of his net worth on how he feels on any given day- though as far as anyone can tell, his claims of being a billionaire are bunk- and he's the first candidate in decades to refuse to release his tax returns. Plus his campaign finances are significantly smaller than the norm, forcing the GOP to bankroll him almost entirely.

But really the reason why he's still standing is because he's a great salesman- he's good at convincing people to give him their money.

edited 24th Sep '16 9:49:42 AM by Gilphon

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#139990: Sep 24th 2016 at 9:49:10 AM

Should also be mentioned that because of that the GOP is fast running out of money.

Oh really when?
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#139991: Sep 24th 2016 at 9:53:32 AM

And some of the big money sources on the right, such as the Koch brothers, are focusing on down ticket races. Probably because they don't think the party can survive a Trump Administration.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#139992: Sep 24th 2016 at 10:04:04 AM

@Marc: Perhaps not "no idea", but he's chronically impulsive and takes needlessly stupid risks. He's very wealthy sure, but a fair amount of that comes in spite of his poor businesses decisions rather than because of them. He's also notorious for screwing over his creditors, refusing to pay people for arbitrary reasons, and and all around cheapskate when it comes to anything beyond his own personal spending.

To give a personal ancedote, my father works in the film industry. He was once working on a job which was shooting in one of Trumps numerous penthouses (for Devil's Advocate IIRC), and,considering how much expensive crap was around, the crew was extremely careful not to damage anything; it was left in a state more or less identical to the way they found it if my dad (and production) is to be believed. In spite of that, Trump sent a bill for around $100,000 in damages to the studio, and kept badgering them until they paid up.

edited 24th Sep '16 10:07:19 AM by CaptainCapsase

NativeJovian Jupiterian Local from Orlando, FL Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: Maxing my social links
Jupiterian Local
#139993: Sep 24th 2016 at 10:28:58 AM

It's also worth noting that Trump's net worth is highly debatable. He claims he's worth around $10 billion — independent estimates are significantly lower than that (Bloomberg says $3 billion, Forbes says $4.5). Most of the difference is probably in the perceived value of the Trump brand — which is hard to value without it actually being auctioned off, and it'd be hard for Trump to sell the Trump brand because he is the Trump brand, so unless the potential buyers built in some "Trump still has to make all the appearances we want" clause into the sale (or just paid him an asinine amount of money to make those appearances), the brand wouldn't be worth nearly as much.

Really from Jupiter, but not an alien.
Parable Since: Aug, 2009
#139994: Sep 24th 2016 at 10:44:47 AM

For some reason that reminds me of those cult of personality type leaders whose states can't function without them.

TotemicHero No longer a forum herald from the next level Since: Dec, 2009
No longer a forum herald
#139995: Sep 24th 2016 at 10:47:37 AM

You know, that song is a pretty apt description of Trump.

Expergiscēre cras, medior quam hodie. (Awaken tomorrow, better than today.)
AngelusNox Warder of the damned from The guard of the gates of oblivion Since: Dec, 2014 Relationship Status: Married to the job
Warder of the damned
#139996: Sep 24th 2016 at 11:20:05 AM

[up][up]And the ensuing clusterfuck when the center of said cult dies.

I don't see any of Trump's sons with a single shred of their father's charisma.

Inter arma enim silent leges
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#139997: Sep 24th 2016 at 11:23:03 AM

[up]x5 — Ah, the classic skinflint. He's extremely diligent about pestering other people to pay up (whether they actually owe him anything or not), but he goes to great lengths to weasel out of his own debts.

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
940131 Since: Feb, 2014
#139998: Sep 24th 2016 at 12:23:02 PM

@Captain Capsase I don't know that I'd say he has no idea how to run a business. Looking at his record he's had failures, but he's also had successes like Wollmans Rink, the Grand Hyatt Hotel, Trump Towers etc.. Except for a brief period in the '90's, he's consistently been on the Forbes list. Americans seem to like the idea of a businessman President, but you can't run a country like a company. Even the greatest businessman in the world, wouldn't necessarily be able to draft sound economic policies. Paul Krugman wrote a great article about it. Looking at the Businessmen Presidents the U.S., most weren't great successes.

edited 24th Sep '16 1:08:47 PM by 940131

nervmeister Since: Oct, 2010
#139999: Sep 24th 2016 at 12:48:48 PM

About that eloquent speech from Trump just recently: did he write that, or did someone draft it for him?

edited 24th Sep '16 12:49:31 PM by nervmeister

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#140000: Sep 24th 2016 at 12:58:40 PM

[up] It was drafted for him I assume, but he went off script at times and it didn't sound all that jarring. But I was talking more about the delivery of his speech.


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