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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#135727: Aug 19th 2016 at 5:42:12 AM

@captain: polls can change, there's still way too many damn months between now and election day to say he's lost for sure.

After much ruminatin' and heavy drinking I'd like to throw another theory in here for why Trump's numbers suddenly dropped. After insulting the khan family he's essentially hit the outrage ceiling. He can no longer get air time by saying ridiculous shit and the news coverage has shifted from "can you believe this?!" to "Trump says something ridiculous, let's not say anything constructive until the commercial break."

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135728: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:10:24 AM

[up] Polls can change, but I really can't see Trump pulling this off without some combination of a really nasty October surprise, outright violence at the polls suppressing anti-Trump voters (and honestly, with all the hysteria over Trump, I wouldn't rule out the converse happening to some extent), and Trump finally coming up with a sales pitch that works for the general electorate.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#135729: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:35:49 AM

[up] Which he can't do without alienating the people who form his core constituency.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135730: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:38:55 AM

[up] Don'f be so sure of that; cults of personality (and Trump definitely cultivated one) are extremely good at rationalizing hypocrisy on the part of their idol.

At this point, it's too little too late, but if he'd retained the mostly* moderate rhetoric he used early on in the primaries, I suspect he's be doing a lot better (alarmingly so), despite his complete and utter lack of a concrete plan and the unacceptablely nativist rhetoric elsewhere.

* While being absolutely insane on a few key issues. (The wall being number 1)

edited 19th Aug '16 6:51:48 AM by CaptainCapsase

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#135731: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:49:42 AM

If Trump 'sells out' he's liable to run into the same issue that Bernie has, that the hardcore nutty ones will refuse to walk away from what they think he was arguing for and will disavow him over it.

Thing is Trump's base is all hardcore nutty ones, this isn't like Bernie where only a small chunk fall into that category.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135732: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:51:16 AM

[up] Trump's base is already acclimated to him changing positions every single time he opens his mouth. A great many of them I suspect are more drawn in by his personality than his (lack of) policy.

He wouldn't need to drop the nativism, just stop talking about it, and emphasis acceptable positions that won't offend his base; ie being pro-choice, pro-LGBT, and so on. Public memory is short, and his stranglehold on media attention would really favor him had he made the right kind of pivot after the primaries.

edited 19th Aug '16 6:56:18 AM by CaptainCapsase

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#135733: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:54:59 AM

Trump has never changed his core policy of hatred, fear mongering and bigotry, that's what they're drawn to. Yes it's part of his personality but it's also a political position.

For Trump to pick up others voters he'd have to change his personality, even if his supporters would follow such a move Trump has shown that he himself is incapable of changing.

[up] You think being pro-choice and pro-LGBT won't offend his base? The Evangelical vote would do a nut.

edited 19th Aug '16 6:55:40 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135734: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:58:28 AM

[up] Trump hasn't changed that part of his rhetoric, but he did manage to keep his mouth shut when it mattered for a few weeks, and that was when he was doing best in the polls.

As far as evangelicals go, who else are they going to vote for? Certainly not Clinton or Johnson, and while that would screw the GOP in the long term, I doubt Trump cares about that. But again, it's going to be nearly impossible for him to turn things around at this point.

edited 19th Aug '16 6:59:58 AM by CaptainCapsase

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#135735: Aug 19th 2016 at 6:59:58 AM

Yeah and he couldn't sustain it for more than a few weeks, likewise there's a limit to how much damage control he can do at this point. The footage of him saying shit is out there, he's been adding to it to cover other meditates so he can't stop.

Hell he may have to, if he isn't saying outrage stuff he might be being asked difficult questions, like where the hell his tax returns are.

And the evangelicals can always stay home, or follow Cruz's advise and simply vote Republicans down ticket and not for for president.

edited 19th Aug '16 7:00:52 AM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135736: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:02:51 AM

[up] That's the point of Pence; give evangelicals a kernel of hope that Trump will do what they want, and someone who can portray him as a completely different candidate for those voters.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#135737: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:07:06 AM

Trump's hiring of a Breitbart executive as his campaign manager and the promise to "let Trump be Trump" strongly indicates that he will not, in fact, moderate himself and will in fact double down on the rhetorical style that won him the nomination.

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#135738: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:08:49 AM

Wait, do they think Trump is the alt-right Bartlet?

edited 19th Aug '16 7:09:17 AM by megarockman

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135739: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:10:41 AM

[up][up] Well he recently apologized for "sometimes saying the wrong thing", which is probably the first time he's done anything other than double down, so I expect he's going to at least try a few alternate strategies. It's very unlikely to work at this point, but I shudder to think what would've happened if he'd tried this earlier on in the race.

edited 19th Aug '16 7:10:59 AM by CaptainCapsase

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#135740: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:12:40 AM

Breaking News, so there's not much actually there beyond the report itself:

http://live.reuters.com/Event/Election_2016/317111889
Paul Manafort has resigned.

edited 19th Aug '16 7:15:01 AM by sgamer82

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135742: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:19:21 AM

[up] With Trump something other than doubling down always is a bit of a surprise.

TerminusEst from the Land of Winter and Stars Since: Feb, 2010
#135743: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:23:46 AM

[up][up]

Next stop, North Korea!tongue

Si Vis Pacem, Para Perkele
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#135744: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:43:49 AM

Or Turkey.tongue

edited 19th Aug '16 7:44:06 AM by Rationalinsanity

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#135745: Aug 19th 2016 at 7:43:58 AM

The legal heat was likely too much. He's possibly due for indictment soon.

I'd also urge caution on Trump maybe-apologizing. He looked "presidential" after that economy speech and then made the 2nd Amendment Solution comment like a day later.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135746: Aug 19th 2016 at 8:19:34 AM

[up] I doubt he'll stop being a blowhard with extremely vague policy proposals, but he might drop the GOP's economic proposals and LGBT/women's rights platform in favor of the mostly moderate (but no less vague) rhetoric he was using early on in the Republican primaries, and focus less on the positions that are still batshit crazy.

"We are one nation. When one state hurts, we all hurt. We must all work together - to lift each other up. "

I'd say I'm probably correct that Trump is making another attempt to act presidential. I wonder how long this will last.

edited 19th Aug '16 8:28:03 AM by CaptainCapsase

Krieger22 Causing freakouts over sourcing since 2018 from Malaysia Since: Mar, 2014 Relationship Status: I'm in love with my car
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#135748: Aug 19th 2016 at 9:09:30 AM

Except Trump can't change his stance on women because it's part of who he is, combine that with his VP choice and he's got no chance with LGBT voters, they're not idiots and won't switch to Trump because he went a week without insulting them.

Plus he tried with LGBT voters after Orlando, making such a cluster fuck of it that he gained nothing.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135749: Aug 19th 2016 at 9:17:03 AM

[up] LGBT voters are <5% of the population; the people who sympathize with them are what really matters, and there's plenty of people around who are put off by the GOP solely due to their backwards stances on particular social issues. Which is an unfortunate aspect of America; it's already very far to the right as a country, and frankly, if the GOP managed to ditch their backwards stances on race, gender, and LGBT issues, they'd probably be crushing the democrats as things stand.

edited 19th Aug '16 9:19:25 AM by CaptainCapsase

BonsaiForest Since: Jan, 2001
#135750: Aug 19th 2016 at 9:20:28 AM

Donald Trump supporter in action.

Daniel Rowe was apparently enraged at the sight of a black man and a white woman kissing on the streets of Olympia, Wash., Tuesday night. But police say he hid his violent intent behind a stony face until he was close enough to strike.

(...)

No one involved had life-threatening injuries, but police said Rowe’s behavior grew stranger as officers tried to wrestle him into the back of a patrol car.

“He tells them, ‘Yeah, I stabbed them. I’m a white supremacist,'” Lower said. “He begins talking about Donald Trump rallies and attacking people at the Black Lives Matter protest.”


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