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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM
@captain: polls can change, there's still way too many damn months between now and election day to say he's lost for sure.
After much ruminatin' and heavy drinking I'd like to throw another theory in here for why Trump's numbers suddenly dropped. After insulting the khan family he's essentially hit the outrage ceiling. He can no longer get air time by saying ridiculous shit and the news coverage has shifted from "can you believe this?!" to "Trump says something ridiculous, let's not say anything constructive until the commercial break."
Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
Polls can change, but I really can't see Trump pulling this off without some combination of a really nasty October surprise, outright violence at the polls suppressing anti-Trump voters (and honestly, with all the hysteria over Trump, I wouldn't rule out the converse happening to some extent), and Trump finally coming up with a sales pitch that works for the general electorate.
Which he can't do without alienating the people who form his core constituency.
Don'f be so sure of that; cults of personality (and Trump definitely cultivated one) are extremely good at rationalizing hypocrisy on the part of their idol.
At this point, it's too little too late, but if he'd retained the mostly* moderate rhetoric he used early on in the primaries, I suspect he's be doing a lot better (alarmingly so), despite his complete and utter lack of a concrete plan and the unacceptablely nativist rhetoric elsewhere.
* While being absolutely insane on a few key issues. (The wall being number 1)
edited 19th Aug '16 6:51:48 AM by CaptainCapsase
If Trump 'sells out' he's liable to run into the same issue that Bernie has, that the hardcore nutty ones will refuse to walk away from what they think he was arguing for and will disavow him over it.
Thing is Trump's base is all hardcore nutty ones, this isn't like Bernie where only a small chunk fall into that category.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Trump's base is already acclimated to him changing positions every single time he opens his mouth. A great many of them I suspect are more drawn in by his personality than his (lack of) policy.
He wouldn't need to drop the nativism, just stop talking about it, and emphasis acceptable positions that won't offend his base; ie being pro-choice, pro-LGBT, and so on. Public memory is short, and his stranglehold on media attention would really favor him had he made the right kind of pivot after the primaries.
edited 19th Aug '16 6:56:18 AM by CaptainCapsase
Trump has never changed his core policy of hatred, fear mongering and bigotry, that's what they're drawn to. Yes it's part of his personality but it's also a political position.
For Trump to pick up others voters he'd have to change his personality, even if his supporters would follow such a move Trump has shown that he himself is incapable of changing.
You think being pro-choice and pro-LGBT won't offend his base? The Evangelical vote would do a nut.
edited 19th Aug '16 6:55:40 AM by Silasw
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Trump hasn't changed that part of his rhetoric, but he did manage to keep his mouth shut when it mattered for a few weeks, and that was when he was doing best in the polls.
As far as evangelicals go, who else are they going to vote for? Certainly not Clinton or Johnson, and while that would screw the GOP in the long term, I doubt Trump cares about that. But again, it's going to be nearly impossible for him to turn things around at this point.
edited 19th Aug '16 6:59:58 AM by CaptainCapsase
Yeah and he couldn't sustain it for more than a few weeks, likewise there's a limit to how much damage control he can do at this point. The footage of him saying shit is out there, he's been adding to it to cover other meditates so he can't stop.
Hell he may have to, if he isn't saying outrage stuff he might be being asked difficult questions, like where the hell his tax returns are.
And the evangelicals can always stay home, or follow Cruz's advise and simply vote Republicans down ticket and not for for president.
edited 19th Aug '16 7:00:52 AM by Silasw
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ CyranTrump's hiring of a Breitbart executive as his campaign manager and the promise to "let Trump be Trump" strongly indicates that he will not, in fact, moderate himself and will in fact double down on the rhetorical style that won him the nomination.
"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"Wait, do they think Trump is the alt-right Bartlet?
edited 19th Aug '16 7:09:17 AM by megarockman
The damned queen and the relentless knight.![]()
Well he recently apologized for "sometimes saying the wrong thing", which is probably the first time he's done anything other than double down, so I expect he's going to at least try a few alternate strategies. It's very unlikely to work at this point, but I shudder to think what would've happened if he'd tried this earlier on in the race.
edited 19th Aug '16 7:10:59 AM by CaptainCapsase
Breaking News, so there's not much actually there beyond the report itself:
http://live.reuters.com/Event/Election_2016/317111889
Paul Manafort has resigned.
edited 19th Aug '16 7:15:01 AM by sgamer82
I doubt he'll stop being a blowhard with extremely vague policy proposals, but he might drop the GOP's economic proposals and LGBT/women's rights platform in favor of the mostly moderate (but no less vague) rhetoric he was using early on in the Republican primaries, and focus less on the positions that are still batshit crazy.
I'd say I'm probably correct that Trump is making another attempt to act presidential. I wonder how long this will last.
edited 19th Aug '16 8:28:03 AM by CaptainCapsase
Also, Breitbart's "tech journalist" Milo Howeveritsspelt's charity may be a case of affinity fraud
.
Except Trump can't change his stance on women because it's part of who he is, combine that with his VP choice and he's got no chance with LGBT voters, they're not idiots and won't switch to Trump because he went a week without insulting them.
Plus he tried with LGBT voters after Orlando, making such a cluster fuck of it that he gained nothing.
“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
LGBT voters are <5% of the population; the people who sympathize with them are what really matters, and there's plenty of people around who are put off by the GOP solely due to their backwards stances on particular social issues. Which is an unfortunate aspect of America; it's already very far to the right as a country, and frankly, if the GOP managed to ditch their backwards stances on race, gender, and LGBT issues, they'd probably be crushing the democrats as things stand.
edited 19th Aug '16 9:19:25 AM by CaptainCapsase
Donald Trump supporter in action.
(...)
No one involved had life-threatening injuries, but police said Rowe’s behavior grew stranger as officers tried to wrestle him into the back of a patrol car.
“He tells them, ‘Yeah, I stabbed them. I’m a white supremacist,'” Lower said. “He begins talking about Donald Trump rallies and attacking people at the Black Lives Matter protest.”

Trump may be trying to reverse course
. Worrying or too little, to late?