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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

vandro Shop Owner from The little shop that wasn't Since: Jul, 2009
Shop Owner
#135401: Aug 15th 2016 at 3:47:04 PM

It's really good when people use "realpolitik" as an excuse to sell weapons to child murderers.

This makes me feel like posting this:

I'd think that's how realpolitik advocates would react.

Protagonist506 from Oregon Since: Dec, 2013 Relationship Status: Chocolate!
#135402: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:05:16 PM

In seriousness, according to the quoted article, Saudi Arabia's actions run contrary to America's security interests, which would make it a subversion of Realpolitik.

From what I understand, The reason the US tolerates nations like Saudi Arabia is because they're selling us oil, which the US has a very legitimate need for. I can see that being justified as Realpolitik

On the other hand, in this case I would rather the US should pursue a less friendly relationship with Saudi Arabia until they cut the crap.

Leviticus 19:34
DrDougsh Since: Jan, 2001
#135403: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:14:50 PM

That's a pretty solid realpolitik argument to move away from fossil fuels.

Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#135404: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:22:29 PM

I would say it's more a case of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, since the Saudis notionally advance U.S. interests in the area and would make very bad enemies if we cut off their support, especially because most of their weapons are things we sold them.

edited 15th Aug '16 4:22:37 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
PhiSat Planeswalker from Everywhere and Nowhere Since: Jan, 2011
Planeswalker
#135405: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:23:40 PM

Canada is more than willing to provide you oil, guys. It kind of makes up a big part of our economy...

Oissu!
pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#135406: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:34:00 PM

[up]Thanks, but I think the long-term strategy is to drain the Middle East oil fields dry before we begin using up the stuff in North America. That way, after Peak Oil Day when the shit hits the fan, we'll still have some here at home. And it'll be a bit easier to defend our own borders than to keep troops deployed half a world away. We'll just tell the Saudi's, "Thanks for the oil, but now that it's gone, you've got nothing we want. So you're on your own."

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.
PhiSat Planeswalker from Everywhere and Nowhere Since: Jan, 2011
Planeswalker
#135407: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:51:14 PM

Makes sense. It would also make sense to develop the infrastructure to be able to pump in the oil more effectively now for when that time comes, especially since there's an ongoing economic slump at the moment. But then I'm a little biased there.

As someone who lives in Alberta, where we rely extensively on oil, could I ask what the reasons were for Obama blocking the Transcanada Pipeline all those months ago? Were the concerns primarily environmental ones? I mostly just saw a bunch of mud-slinging and fearmongering from the left and right while it was happening and genuinely want to understand what happened there.

Oissu!
Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#135408: Aug 15th 2016 at 4:57:50 PM

If I remember correctly, the pipeline got shot down because A) environmental issues, B) the construction was going to be done by the lowest bidder, so not good quality construction most likely, (which ties back into environmental) and C) the project was beginning to abuse Eminent Domain and the local governments were beginning to take people's land away with little to no warning.

Also, the "it creates jobs" argument was completely worthless. It would create some jobs...for a few months and then the jobs would disappear again.

edited 15th Aug '16 4:58:48 PM by Zendervai

PhiSat Planeswalker from Everywhere and Nowhere Since: Jan, 2011
Planeswalker
#135409: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:00:15 PM

From my experience, these jobs are always done by the lowest bidder because governments are cheap.

More ignorance on my part, but were these land seizures being done on a state or federal level? It seems a little odd to me that the federal would start these proceedings only to have Obama throw it out... But I guess that's how your guys' system works and why nothing gets done.

Oissu!
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#135410: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:01:56 PM

Was that pipeline the Keystone pipeline? I remember we had a full on thread discussing it a while back.

Here's the thread if you want to take a look.

edited 15th Aug '16 5:02:55 PM by tclittle

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
PhiSat Planeswalker from Everywhere and Nowhere Since: Jan, 2011
Planeswalker
#135411: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:11:16 PM

So Transcanada put in a shitty bid because it was cheap to do so, the government accepted it over other pipelines because it was cheap, it caused a kerfuffle because trying to get the cheapest land available resulted in ranchers getting harassed and potential environmental issues due to the nature of the land. So instead of picking a different bid or trying to resolve the issue with a change order, the State Department dug their heels in and so did our government before Trudeau came in and no one got what they wanted in the end.

I'll stop derailing because the pipeline is pretty old news. It's just news everyone here is still really sore about because of the downturn in oil prices and the continued difficulty of not being able to get our crude oil down to the refineries in the USA. With the talk on Saudi oil I just thought maybe I could finally get some answers as to what happened.

edited 15th Aug '16 5:11:48 PM by PhiSat

Oissu!
thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#135412: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:13:16 PM

The main reason, I suspect, is that the government accountants foresaw the massive drop in oil prices coming and decided the cost/benefit simply wasn't worth it. Also it doesn't make much sense to invest in this big pipeline while trying to move away from fossil fuels.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
PhiSat Planeswalker from Everywhere and Nowhere Since: Jan, 2011
Planeswalker
#135413: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:16:21 PM

It would have been nice for those accountants to let people know about this beforehand instead of getting no warning when the oil market suddenly got rekt.

Also, while people are moving away from fossil fuels, it's not looking like a complete move is in the cards for a good long while yet.

Oissu!
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
Professional Forum Ninja
#135414: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:20:54 PM

Eminent Domain is a very real issue some states have. Even my favorite project to be greenlit by our very conservative government down here in Texas, the Dallas-Houston bullet train, has gotten a bunch of flak for the heavy use of eminent domain on ranchers.

And on that note, protester for the Dallas-Houston bullet train shouts "Remember Pearl Harbor" because the train uses tech used in Japan's bullet trains.

"We're all paper, we're all scissors, we're all fightin' with our mirrors, scared we'll never find somebody to love."
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#135415: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:23:18 PM

The sad reality with Saudi Arabia is that it's felt that if the Saudi youth are employed, be it killing Yemeni children, crewing US sold weapons or working in the oil business, than said youth are less likely to turn to extremist Islam. On top of that the goverment is less likely to support extremist Islam directly and less US children are likely to die.

It's a trade.

edited 15th Aug '16 5:23:51 PM by Silasw

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#135416: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:25:40 PM

It's also worth noting that "peak oil" is proving to be something of a myth, as current scientific research says that the Earth has more petroleum in it (produced by abiological means, no less) than we could use in a thousand years. The trouble is getting to it, which is an environmental problem as much as it is a technology problem, but neither is insurmountable. Ultimately, the problem that will get us off of fossil fuels is the whole "baking the planet like a potato in a microwave" thing, not the "oh, no, we're out of oil and have to tear down our cities and live in a Scavenger World" thing.

Also, eminent domain is something that Republican voters are very much against, while their corporate-sponsored overlords are very much for, which is another reason Trump is so popular, even though he looooooves him some eminent domain. Makes perfect sense to me!

edited 15th Aug '16 5:27:50 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
JackOLantern1337 Shameful Display from The Most Miserable Province in the Russian Empir Since: Aug, 2014 Relationship Status: 700 wives and 300 concubines
Shameful Display
#135417: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:36:59 PM

Obama allows the Saudi's to war in Yemen in exchange for their acquiescence to the Iran deal. The US's problem is that we are into half measures. We try to quietly influence our allies to be more humane, but at the end of the day if the US has to chose between Human rights and maintaining it's alliances, nine times out of ten it will chose the alliance. And that tenth time, when Obama refused to back up Mubark, is credited by many with setting the Middle East ablaze. We try to care about Human Rights, not only because doing otherwise would be intolerable to the domestic audience, but because deep down most of our leaders, not to mention numerous idealistic staffers at the state department want to be a "force for good." And yet we are mostly unwilling to sacrifice our alliances, especially when it comes to strategic assets like oil, and volatile regions like the Middle East.

I Bring Doom,and a bit of gloom, but mostly gloom.
thatguythere47 Since: Jul, 2010
#135418: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:41:59 PM

We'll always need oil, sure, but if green energy and electric car technology keeps improving at their current pace I can see oil going the way of coal in the not-to-distant future. It'll be very interesting to see how power is redistributed when a barrel goes for 20 bucks.

Is using "Julian Assange is a Hillary butt plug" an acceptable signature quote?
TheHandle United Earth from Stockholm Since: Jan, 2012 Relationship Status: YOU'RE TEARING ME APART LISA
United Earth
#135419: Aug 15th 2016 at 5:51:36 PM

[up][up]I call bullshit on that crediting.

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#135420: Aug 15th 2016 at 6:10:51 PM

[up]X3 [tup]

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#135421: Aug 15th 2016 at 6:50:21 PM

The idea in Yemen now is probably to take the shortest route to re-stabilizing the country so that Yemenis can focus on containing the AQAP and ISIS. Saudia's conduct absolutely needs to be examined, though.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#135422: Aug 15th 2016 at 8:25:18 PM

@Fighteer: There's plenty of oil, but our ability to extract it from new places failing to keep pace with global demand is a very real concern.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#135423: Aug 15th 2016 at 8:29:10 PM

Johnson and Stein have until September to get their poll numbers up to at least 15% to participate in the debates. For Johnson that could easily happen, if Trump stumbles badly (he's only about 5 points off). For Stein, who is at best 10 points away from the threshold, she'd require a Clinton implosion.

http://money.cnn.com/2016/08/15/media/commission-on-presidential-debates-polls/index.html

Imagine the whining from the Greens if the Johnson manages to sneak in but Stein remains irrelevant.evil grin

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Hodor2 Since: Jan, 2015
#135424: Aug 15th 2016 at 8:48:36 PM

How's Harambe doing?

Edit- Hate the meme, but last time I checked he was doing better than Stein.

edited 15th Aug '16 8:52:23 PM by Hodor2

Balmung Since: Oct, 2011
#135425: Aug 15th 2016 at 9:08:33 PM

With respect to US oil sources, the United States has not been dependent on Middle Eastern oil as a primary petroleum source for a long time. Canada is by far the primary source of imported oil (both crude and refined), at almost three times the oil imports from the second largest source, Saudi Arabia (just over 3,000,000 barrels per day vs just over 1,100,000 barrels per day). Other countries in the Americas (mostly Canada, Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia, making up four of the top five foreign sources, but also Ecuador and Brazil) combined make up just over two-thirds of US oil imports. Of the remaining 9 of the top 15 foreign sources of US oil, four are Middle Eastern (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman), four are African (Nigeria, Libya, Angola, and Chad), and one is Indonesia. Domestic production outstrips them put together (total daily output from US oil fields last week was just shy of 8,500,000 barrels per day, while the top 15 sources of US crude oil imports shipped an average of about 7,800,000 barrels of crude oil per day in May (the most recent month I could find data for)).

As for oil "going the way of coal", that'd still leave oil burning stuff as a pretty significant market force. Coal burning was only recently surpassed by natural gas burning as the number one source of US electricity. Number 3 is nuclear (I favor more nuclear, personally), then renewables (combined), then hydropower, then petroleum and other gases. Coal hasn't really gone anywhere, unfortunately.

TL;DR: Middle Eastern oil isn't even close to the primary source for the USA - 2/3 of imports are from this hemisphere, and we actually extract more than we import.

edited 15th Aug '16 9:16:36 PM by Balmung


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