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Edited by Mrph1 on Nov 30th 2023 at 11:03:59 AM

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#134751: Aug 9th 2016 at 9:06:19 AM

Nate Silver agreed - the only plausible method for getting enough states to join is by courting solidly Republican states like Utah (all sign-ons have thus far been solid Democrat in presidential elections).

[up]It has happened more times than that: 1824 (though this one was kind of a mess in general with four candidates), 1876, 1888, and 2000.

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#134752: Aug 9th 2016 at 9:07:46 AM

And a few other cases. Any of the superclose historical elections (although the further back you go the counting also gets muddier): 1800, 1824, 1876, 1884, 1960, and 2000 are all candidates.

Whoops, ninja'd

edited 9th Aug '16 9:08:02 AM by Ogodei

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#134753: Aug 9th 2016 at 9:22:31 AM

Only two of those happened in the last century. Based on that I'd say the electoral college is a pretty good metric to pick a president by even if popular vote is the ideal.

So I'm looking at 538's election predictions and they have Clinton at an 87.5% chance of winning. This is the largest lead she's had since they started recording things. For reference she was effectively tied with Trump less than a week and a half ago. Hopefully she can keep this momentum going.

edit: The idea of the polls being skewed was brought up a little while back. A similar thing happened in 2012. Here's an article on that subject and why it's wrong now just like it was back then.

edited 9th Aug '16 9:32:37 AM by Kostya

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#134754: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:08:38 AM

[up] Is that the now cast giving Clinton that lead or the long term poll?

megarockman from The Sixth Borough (Experienced Trainee)
#134755: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:11:03 AM

  • Now-cast: Clinton 95.5%
  • Polls-only: 87.5%
  • Polls-plus: 79.2%

The damned queen and the relentless knight.
GameGuruGG Vampire Hunter from Castlevania (Before Recorded History)
Vampire Hunter
#134756: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:11:35 AM

[up][up] The Now-Cast gives the largest lead for Clinton, but even polls-plus and polls only give Clinton a significant lead.

edited 9th Aug '16 10:12:05 AM by GameGuruGG

Wizard Needs Food Badly
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#134757: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:19:32 AM

Seddique Mateen (Orlando shooter Omar Mateen's father) attended Hillary Clinton's rally in plain view of the cameras. Campaign didn't know about it til afterward, they say and he says he was invited as a supporter, not as any special guest.

Awkward nonetheless.

sgamer82 Since: Jan, 2001
#134758: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:21:33 AM

Is it really that a big a deal outside of his connection to the Orlando shooter?

edited 9th Aug '16 10:21:48 AM by sgamer82

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#134759: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:25:37 AM

I'm sure we could also find tons of Neo-Nazis and Klan members at Trump rallies too.

Silasw A procrastination in of itself from A handcart to hell (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: And they all lived happily ever after <3
A procrastination in of itself
#134760: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:34:21 AM

Also I'm pretty sure he very quickly came out and condemed his son's actions, well the shooting of LGBT people actions, not sure where he stood on the wife beating.

“And the Bunny nails it!” ~ Gabrael “If the UN can get through a day without everyone strangling everyone else so can we.” ~ Cyran
TobiasDrake (•̀⤙•́) (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Arm chopping is not a love language!
(•̀⤙•́)
#134761: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:34:35 AM

NAMBLA is all too real.

I Googled it to find out what everyone is talking about, and now I feel physically ill. Why is that a thing. Why.

My Tumblr. Currently side-by-side liveblogging Digimon Adventure, sub vs dub.
SeptimusHeap from Switzerland (Edited uphill both ways) Relationship Status: Mu
#134762: Aug 9th 2016 at 10:36:23 AM

The world is big. You'll thus see a lot of people with weird and socially unacceptable opinions.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." - Richard Feynman
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#134763: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:05:42 AM

There are the reports of him being pro-Taliban to consider. Not sure of the veracity but if true, it becomes Your Approval Fills Me with Shame. And that doesn't get into the general pettiness a lot of Americans have toward relatives of anyone who has done harm.

Doubt this will be a big deal beyond today though. Hil isn't Trump, so she won't allow it to become a thing.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#134764: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:15:51 AM

The possibility of a Trump presidency worries the majority of Canadians.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/grenier-uselection-canadians-concerned-1.3713214

Seriously, you guys are starting to scare the shit out of your closest ally and neighbor. Can't imagine how Mexico feels.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#134765: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:24:44 AM

It's pretty noteworthy that every single one of America's allies is scared of Trump and the GOP doesn't view it as a problem.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#134766: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:26:39 AM

Yet another group who read The Prince and skipped over the "avoid hatred" part that comes after "better to be feared than loved".

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
DrunkenNordmann from Exile Since: May, 2015
#134767: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:43:53 AM

[up] Wasn't the actual lesson more: "If you can't be loved, be feared, but avoid being hated"?

We learn from history that we do not learn from history
DrDougsh Since: Jan, 2001
#134768: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:49:29 AM

I think ideally you're supposed to be both loved and feared. If you have to pick just one, pick feared, but avoid being hated.

LSBK Since: Sep, 2014
#134769: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:49:49 AM

More like, if you can have both, but if not choice fear, but don't have them fear you so much it turns to hate. Because that causes uprisings and revolutions.

Edit: [nja]'d.

edited 9th Aug '16 11:50:17 AM by LSBK

CrimsonZephyr Would that it were so simple. from Massachusetts Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
Would that it were so simple.
#134770: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:52:00 AM

I think language drift has made the essence of that phrase lost — it's about respect. It basically says, "Okay, being loved is great, and if you can manage it, congratulations. But if that's not possible, at least make sure they respect your authority and follow your laws. Just make sure you're not hated, because while people who claim to love you will disrespect your authority if they don't also fear the consequences, people who hate you won't care, and rebel whenever they can."

edited 9th Aug '16 11:52:33 AM by CrimsonZephyr

"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die."
Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#134771: Aug 9th 2016 at 11:57:47 AM

Point is that Trump is already driving anti-American sentiment around the world. And that's going to increase by an order of magnitude if he wins.

Hell, unless he is rejected by a landslide those feelings might linger.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
tclittle Professional Forum Ninja from Somewhere Down in Texas Since: Apr, 2010
FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
#134773: Aug 9th 2016 at 12:08:27 PM

Rod. Not Ron.

Kinda harsh, even if Blago came off like a mob boss....

pwiegle Cape Malleum Majorem from Nowhere Special Since: Sep, 2015 Relationship Status: Singularity
Cape Malleum Majorem
#134775: Aug 9th 2016 at 1:23:21 PM

I just received a phone call from a pollster for the NRA. (I have a lifetime membership, but I don't actively participate. These days, it's mostly for the magazine subscription.)

He launched into his spiel about how Hillary wants to ban all guns, etc. I replied that I don't think she actually would, because it would be political suicide. What the anti-gunners say they would like to do, and what they're actually capable of achieving, are often worlds apart.

He repeated the same paranoid propaganda that they print in the magazine every month. I said, "Then what's the alternative? Voting for Trump? Absolutely not!" and hung up on him.

just bugs mejust bugs mejust bugs mePersonally, I'm sick and tired of the whole thing. If they want to revoke my membership, they're welcome to do so.

This Space Intentionally Left Blank.

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