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Draghinazzo (4 Score & 7 Years Ago) Relationship Status: I get a feeling so complicated...
#134701: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:05:10 PM

They might just keep losing though. The whole "white identity politics" is sort of a death sentence for them if they don't find some way to ditch that.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#134702: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:05:49 PM

[up][up][up] That's not particularly likely at this time. Riots certainly, but nothing is getting off the ground without the support of the military. It should be noted though, that the military of the US is quite conservative, ideologically speaking, and some elements of the institution might not be willing to go quietly into that good nigh, so to speak. That's essentially what happened in the 1860s.

[up][up] The base that elected him isn't going anywhere, and will remain a serious no matter the outcome of this cycle. Moreover, when the alternative is somebody like Cruz, your options are rather dismal. I'm going to have to concur with 538's Nate Silver; I don't see the GOP coming back from Trump. On the plus side, beyond social wedge issues, there's not much of a gap between the democrats and the GOP establishment, so an exodus to the democrats shouldn't be too difficult. Though I suppose that's a serious issue for you personally.

edited 8th Aug '16 6:10:29 PM by CaptainCapsase

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#134703: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:07:07 PM

[up][up][up]People keep saying that like Trump doesn't represent the GOP somehow. That's just incorrect. Intentional or not Trump is a product of the kind of bigotry that's been festering in the GOP for decades. He's just not afraid to make it explicit like most of the others in the party.

edited 8th Aug '16 6:07:34 PM by Kostya

Zendervai Since: Oct, 2009
#134704: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:35:33 PM

[up] And, of course, Trump is literally the official GOP representative for this election. You can't pull the "well he doesn't really represent us" card when he got a majority of the vote in the primary.

MadSkillz Destroyer of Worlds Since: Mar, 2013 Relationship Status: I only want you gone
Destroyer of Worlds
#134705: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:38:08 PM

I think the Zapp Brannigan or Donald Trump game is closer than Joker or Trump.

Example.

edited 8th Aug '16 6:38:18 PM by MadSkillz

carbon-mantis Collector Of Fine Oddities from Trumpland Since: Mar, 2010 Relationship Status: Married to my murderer
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#134707: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:55:45 PM

It looks like the 538 Now-Cast has Clinton with a better-than-50/50 chance of winning South Carolina.

Fun fact: If Hillary wins South Carolina (which isn't guaranteed at this point of course), it will almost certainly lead to her being the first Democratic Presidential candidate to sweep the entire Atlantic coast in over a hundred years. It hasn't been done by a Democrat since 1912.

Win it or not, the mere fact it's even remotely competitive points makes a Trump victory extremely unlikely and a landslide victory on Clinton's part very probable.

edited 8th Aug '16 6:56:00 PM by Falrinn

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#134708: Aug 8th 2016 at 6:58:56 PM

It should be noted that the true shape of the presidential race doesn't take shape until after the first debate.

LeGarcon Blowout soon fellow Stalker from Skadovsk Since: Aug, 2013 Relationship Status: Gay for Big Boss
Blowout soon fellow Stalker
#134709: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:00:26 PM

If there is one. There's a strong chance Trump won't participate in any,

Oh really when?
nightwyrm_zero Since: Apr, 2010
#134710: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:06:55 PM

Won't the optics look extremely terrible if Trump declines to debate Clinton?

FFShinra Since: Jan, 2001
Fighteer Lost in Space from The Time Vortex (Time Abyss) Relationship Status: TV Tropes ruined my love life
Lost in Space
#134712: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:14:34 PM

The number of voters that it would alienate is higher than the number of voters it would endear to him. At this point, it's hard to see how Trump could attract any more support among the hardcore right wing.

edited 8th Aug '16 7:14:54 PM by Fighteer

"It's Occam's Shuriken! If the answer is elusive, never rule out ninjas!"
Falrinn Since: Dec, 2014
#134713: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:15:42 PM

[up][up] I don't think there is any way for him to frame it that isn't going to be seen as total BS to all but his most hardcore supporters.

edited 8th Aug '16 7:16:00 PM by Falrinn

Eschaton Since: Jul, 2010
#134714: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:20:13 PM

Of course he's going to participate. He's blowing the debates off now so it seems like they're beneath him, only for him to show up and grace the undeserving events with his presence.

edited 8th Aug '16 7:21:21 PM by Eschaton

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#134715: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:30:22 PM

[up] He's trying to force them to host the debate on his own terms. Which is to say with moderators who are totally incapable of handling him and which will allow him to completely derail the debate into reality TV shenanigans.

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#134716: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:32:18 PM

Worth noting that Nowcast is 538's version of clickbait. Polls Plus is what you want to follow to stay grounded in reality.

tryrar Since: Sep, 2010
#134717: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:36:38 PM

@nowcast:What I find amusing is that Hilary has a ~33% chance in Texas. You'd think that would be sub-single digits, but no, Trump actually is making Texas possibly competitive [lol]

edited 8th Aug '16 7:37:02 PM by tryrar

Kostya (Unlucky Thirteen)
#134718: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:37:42 PM

Hasn't Texas been slowly edging towards being purple? There are a lot of immigrants in it.

CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#134719: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:39:04 PM

[up] Well that and there's the occasional island of democrats, ie Austin.

tryrar Since: Sep, 2010
#134720: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:40:42 PM

[up]Still, you'd think her chances would be closer to zero than 50%

Ogodei Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers from The front lines Since: Jan, 2011
Fuck you, Fascist sympathizers
#134721: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:42:34 PM

Demography plays against the GOP pretty much everywhere that there are large immigrant populations, which is why Georgia teeters on the brink of becoming a swing state while North Carolina's in danger of falling the other way. Whiter states like West Virginia or Utah stay firmly in their grip, however.

tryrar Since: Sep, 2010
#134722: Aug 8th 2016 at 7:46:31 PM

Huh, 538's nowcast has Hillary winning nebraska's 2nd district. Wonder what's so special about that particular district that it's so different from the rest of the state?

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#134723: Aug 8th 2016 at 8:01:35 PM

So, some talking heads are saying that this ex-CIA guy could undermine Trump in one area. He's Mormon and Utah hates Trump's guts...and Trump can't afford to lose a red state to an insurgent/Clinton cause the right splits.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.
CaptainCapsase from Orbiting Sagittarius A* Since: Jan, 2015
#134724: Aug 8th 2016 at 8:34:24 PM

Something rather disturbing just occurred to me; I've long been one of the people who regarded Trump as a great deal more intelligent (thing no less nefarious) than his antics during the election would suggest, and I strongly suspect he's realized he can't win this election on his own merits.

Which is why he's using the most toxic and undemocratic language possible; a mass shooting or two early in the morning on Election Day in the right districts could seriously depress voter turnout out.

Rationalinsanity from Halifax, Canada Since: Aug, 2010 Relationship Status: It's complicated
#134725: Aug 8th 2016 at 8:43:31 PM

If the shooting was tied to the far-right (or was linked to non-political factors), that "plan" would backfire.

Politics is the skilled use of blunt objects.

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